I'm Betting Gold Will Fall Below $1,000 This Year

[CommissarJones]

Not me, but rather the author of this column. I'm not convinced a drop of such magnitude is all that likely, but IMV it's best to be aware of bearish arguments for markets in which one is invested as well as the bullish case. And having said that, a longer-term chart shows that gold remains below its most recent peak at about $1,366/ounce in July 2016.

As for the specific argument made in the MarketWatch column, one of the potential triggers cited by the author strikes me as quite unlikely, namely a substantial (20%-40%) devaluation of the Chinese yuan. ISTM that such a move would clearly result in an almighty blowup with the Trump administration, and I don't see that China's leadership has any particular motivation to provoke this.

For the near term, gold has made a lower low ($1,212.46/oz on July 7 versus $1,219.10/oz on May 10) after three straight higher lows during the climb out of the December 2016 low, so perhaps a downward move is in the offing.