The Lemon Fool

This afternoon I made a drive out to check the situation here in south Bucks.

Of my eight nearest petrol stations, five had no fuel. The other three had very long queues.

Breelander wrote:This afternoon I made a drive out to check the situation here in south Bucks.

Of my eight nearest petrol stations, five had no fuel. The other three had very long queues.

Definitely area dependent - absolutely back to normal now around Shrewsbury - no queues at the 2 supermarkets we passed and no signs I could see. I wonder if some areas have much higher car/fuel station ratios?

DrFfybes wrote:

Breelander wrote:This afternoon I made a drive out to check the situation here in south Bucks.

Of my eight nearest petrol stations, five had no fuel. The other three had very long queues.

Definitely area dependent - absolutely back to normal now around Shrewsbury - no queues at the 2 supermarkets we passed and no signs I could see. I wonder if some areas have much higher car/fuel station ratios?

I'm in Scotland, friends have said there is a shortage at independent stations in small towns, but so far I've had no problems topping up at Tesco (once and I won't need to top up again for a few weeks if the weather is decent so I can cycle to work) and this week every station I've passed in Aberdeen has been open and quiet, no queues.

I am in Scotland and was able to refill on Friday without having to queue. If it wasn't for the news I would not have know there was an issue.

EverybodyKnows wrote:I am in Scotland and was able to refill on Friday without having to queue. If it wasn't for the news I would not have know there was an issue.

If it wasn't for the news, there wouldn't have been.

9 am Sunday, just filled up at my local independent, and the tumbleweed was blowing across the forecourt. No queues, no diesel, but fortunately it was petrol that I needed. They were charging 4p more than the Sainsburys in the next town, which I can live with. Support your local store!

BJ

Would NOT support my local Esso (assuming I'd be dumb enough to join the daily queue, when I still have 3/4 of tank)
He has jacked his prices up by 12p a litre (none of the other Essos in the area have)

pje16 wrote:Would NOT support my local Esso (assuming I'd be dumb enough to join the daily queue, when I still have 3/4 of tank)
He has jacked his prices up by 12p a litre (none of the other Essos in the area have)

Sounds like you've got a bad'un there. Although I suppose it's the free market economy in action? "The right price is the highest price that the market will bear at any given moment", and all that.....

Of course, if there's plenty of petrol available locally at the lower price, then your local garage will run out of friends very fast, and it might even get blacklisted by its hitherto faithful customers. The only thing we could try and say in its defence is that a small independent carries heavier efficiency costs than its larger rivals (smaller tanks, bigger staffing ratio, less price-bargaining power with his wholesaler) - and the wholesalers may well be charging more anyway for small-volume drop-offs.

Added to which, smaller independents don't get the credit deals that the supermarket forecourts get, and they don't get cross-subsidised by non-petrol sales in the same way. (It's worth a couple of quid to Asda just to have you in its car park, because with luck you'll look in and buy some food while you're there.)

So it's a bit more complicated than it looks. But that's about as far as a devil's advocate can go. Time will tell whether your Esso garage's customers will forgive it. If not, then not!

BJ

bungeejumper wrote:

pje16 wrote:Would NOT support my local Esso (assuming I'd be dumb enough to join the daily queue, when I still have 3/4 of tank)
He has jacked his prices up by 12p a litre (none of the other Essos in the area have)

Sounds like you've got a bad'un there. Although I suppose it's the free market economy in action? "The right price is the highest price that the market will bear at any given moment", and all that.....

Time will tell whether your Esso garage's customers will forgive it. If not, then not!
BJ

Hi BJ
we don't need time, the thickos queuing up have been paying over the odds all week

bungeejumper wrote: your local garage will run out of friends very fast, and it might even get blacklisted by its hitherto faithful customers.

Exactly that happened with a garage in Derby last time - it jacked up prices from 80p/litre to £2 for unleaded and £2.50 for super, got boycotted and went bust within months.

As I have posted in another thread, round here was meant to be relatively bad, but it now seems to be stabilising - all the petrol stations I passed yesterday seemed to have fuel but there were queues, I waited about 10 minutes to fill up.

bungeejumper wrote:The only thing we could try and say in its defence is that a small independent carries heavier efficiency costs than its larger rivals (smaller tanks, bigger staffing ratio, less price-bargaining power with his wholesaler) - and the wholesalers may well be charging more anyway for small-volume drop-offs.

Added to which, smaller independents don't get the credit deals that the supermarket forecourts get, and they don't get cross-subsidised by non-petrol sales in the same way. (It's worth a couple of quid to Asda just to have you in its car park, because with luck you'll look in and buy some food while you're there.)

So it's a bit more complicated than it looks. But that's about as far as a devil's advocate can go. Time will tell whether your Esso garage's customers will forgive it. If not, then not!

BJ

Having been peripherally involved with the retail fuel business, I can say it is an awful lot more complex than it looks.

There are an awful lot of business models being used and from the consumers point of view, very difficult to tell which is which.

You have the retail sites owned by an oil major, BP, She’ll, Esso, etc. and run by them - so they own everything and sell you everything.

Then you have the retail sites owned by an oil major and they own everything and sell it to you, but they don’t employ the staff - an independent business does that.

Then you have the retail sites owned by an oil major where they own the fuel, but the shop stock is owned by the independent business who provides the staff. When you buy fuel and something from the shop then you might be buying from the oil major and the independent, or the oil major might do a ‘flash sale’ of the fuel to the independent to sell to you.

Then you have the retail sites owned by an independent but branded up to look like an oil major. They will have a fuel supply agreement with the oil major which although theoretically allows them to set their own price, is in theory only since if they step outside a lower and upper price limit then their guaranteed profit per litre disappears.

Then you have the retail sites owned by an independent and not branded as an oil company site. Now they might be buying on the spot market, but more likely also have a fuel supply agreement with one of the oil majors and with the same restrictions (the reason they are not branded sites is the majors have a certain minimum standard of site, and these probably don’t make it).

So go and fill up at a BP/Shell/Esso/etc. and it might be a site run by an oil major, but is actually equally likely to be an independent.

And as for where the fuel comes from to fill the pumps….

pje16 wrote:Would NOT support my local Esso (assuming I'd be dumb enough to join the daily queue, when I still have 3/4 of tank)
He has jacked his prices up by 12p a litre (none of the other Essos in the area have)

I would Jack up prices as well. People are in business to maximise profit. Big demand equals higher prices.

I sell heaters in the winter.....my prices go up as the temperature falls & demand increases. Why wouldn't I ?

richlist wrote:I sell heaters in the winter.....my prices go up as the temperature falls & demand increases. Why wouldn't I ?

When people, like me, decide to shop elsewhere because you are fleecing them

I would only make that decision if people weren't queuing up to buy from me. That's never happened so I carry on selling at that inflated price. A bit like your Esso petrol station......whilst there is a queue of customers he ain't to bothered wether you join the queue or go elsewhere.

Prices inevitably go up when there are too many customers chasing too little supply.

Where I am, I have not seen any queueing and I have refilled twice since this started and on each occasion I drove straight up to an empty pump. I assume that panic buying is the largest force in the shortages seen down south. All of this is observation and comment rather than data driven.

AWOL wrote:Prices inevitably go up when there are too many customers chasing too little supply.

Where I am, I have not seen any queueing and I have refilled twice since this started and on each occasion I drove straight up to an empty pump. I assume that panic buying is the largest force in the shortages seen down south. All of this is observation and comment rather than data driven.

Surely all 'normal' fuel purchases are "panic purchases".

I panic and buy more fuel whenever I am close to running out. Always have done. Am I being an idiot? Is there a different way of doing it?

I cannot speak for you but I drive my car until the warning light comes on and then when I am next driving near a petrol station fill up. I feel no sense of panic (in either sense of overpowering fright nor of extreme anxiety). In fact I am often sitting at 5 or less miles of projected capacity when I fill up and it bothers me not. When people talk of panic buying they are talking about people with half full petrol tanks rushing out as they are overcome by fear of the impending doom of a petrol famine. It is an irrational adrenaline driven response. Their mind has lost out to their emotions.

This is not by any means the normal response or their wouldn't be a specific term for it nor would their be psychologists compiling papers to add to what is collectively known as "panic literature". A quick skim of this body of work will reveal that panic buying isn't just a phenomenon associated with essentials but extends to anything where a rumour of scarcity has triggered a current of fear running through a population.

An interesting conclusion of a review of the literature is that government messaging is usual central to ending panic buying. The calming of fears has greater effect than an improvement of supply. I am struck by the similarities with bank runs which I suspect are a special case of panic buying or if not a special case an overlapping phenomenon.

If you have another thesis I would enjoy considering it.

AWOL wrote:I feel no sense of panic (in either sense of overpowering fright nor of extreme anxiety). In fact I am often sitting at 5 or less miles of projected capacity when I fill up and it bothers me not.

Don't ever get a job as an airline pilot.

You're quite right to describe the half-tank-fillers the way you do. But running out of petrol on the road is a pretty awful thing, and it isn't so very surprising (at least, to me) that many people go to exaggerated lengths to avoid it.

The very least that people usually want to know is that they've got enough fuel for the next couple of days, or enough to pick up the kids from school, or enough to fulfil their work and social obligations. Or, indeed, to finish a long-distance journey that they've already started. I don't know about you, but I've certainly had the experience of driving on fumes in unfamiliar territory after two or three successive garages have turned out to be unexpectedly shut.

Or, indeed, there might not be any garages at all along my route. Or it might be Sunday, when some places are shut all day. Or it might be out in the wilds of France, where a lot of petrol stations are automatic card-only pumps and they don't necessarily accept British credit cards. (Been there, got the mental scars to prove it. )

In short, range anxiety isn't just for EV owners. I keep a couple of weeks' food in my kitchen, and I want to know there's a few days' juice in my tank. Waiting until I'm down to my last tin of beans isn't the way I want to play it.

BJ

bungeejumper wrote:In short, range anxiety isn't just for EV owners. I keep a couple of weeks' food in my kitchen, and I want to know there's a few days' juice in my tank. Waiting until I'm down to my last tin of beans isn't the way I want to play it.
BJ

Well summed up @BJ
I too have been in France running on fumes in the middle of nowhere, hadn't seen a garage in forever
just made it when I had must have had about a thimbleful left
this was back in 2008 and like you said it lives with you

pje16 wrote:

bungeejumper wrote:In short, range anxiety isn't just for EV owners. I keep a couple of weeks' food in my kitchen, and I want to know there's a few days' juice in my tank. Waiting until I'm down to my last tin of beans isn't the way I want to play it.
BJ

Well summed up @BJ
I too have been in France running on fumes in the middle of nowhere, hadn't seen a garage in forever
just made it when I had must have had about a thimbleful left
this was back in 2008 and like you said it lives with you

It is surprising how much fuel can be still in the tank when the fuel light comes on. When I get a new car I make a point of noting this figure. With my current car, I can still travel at least 80 miles once the fuel warning light comes on.

John