Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

Anyone buying Barclays?

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 431
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 78 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#99433

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 28th, 2017, 7:51 am

Something to suck on. Looks like they got the OK in the stress tests (after including capital strength built in 2017), whatever that means:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financia ... 281117.pdf

Best wishes


Mark.

scotia
Lemon Slice
Posts: 782
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:43 pm
Has thanked: 88 times
Been thanked: 198 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#117571

Postby scotia » February 12th, 2018, 12:15 pm

From the BBC today
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43029731
The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has charged Barclays Bank PLC with "unlawful financial assistance" related to billions of pounds raised from Qatar in 2008.
The same charges were bought against Barclays PLC in June last year.
The move to charge Barclays Bank as well is significant because it holds the banking licence that allows it to operate in different countries.
So, if Barclays was found guilty, it could lose that crucial licence.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 431
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 78 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#117724

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » February 12th, 2018, 8:19 pm

Thanks for sharing. These and other issues will dog the bank for some time to come.

Those interested in dividends might be disappointed, if the following turns out to be correct. According to a report on Proactive Investors:
For Barclays, Deutsche raised its target price to 234p from 210p. It also expects Barclays to unveil a progressive ordinary dividend per share and a £500mln buyback in 2018.

"Though we struggle to see Barclays as a ‘dividend’ yield stock (yields have historically been lower than banks like Lloyds, and capital generation lower), buybacks would help improve earnings per share and thus earnings upgrades," it said.

It cut its dividend forecasts for 2018 to 4p from 5p. For 2019 Deutsche lowered its dividend estimate to 5p from 8p and predicts a buyback of £1bn. In 2020 the Deutsche’s dividend expectation reduced to 6p from 12p while the buyback is projected to be £1bn.

On litigation matters, Deutsche Bank expects £1.5bn in 2018-19 to cover a probe by the Department of Justice over the suspected fraudulent sale of mortgage securities and other investigations.

Adjusted pre-tax profit is forecast rise to £5.3bn in 2018 from £4.3bn in 2017 and expected to grow to £6.2bn in 2019 and £6.8bn in 2019 [recte: 2020].

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/190683/lloyds-and-barclays-to-lift-capital-returns-in-2018-deutsche-bank-expects-190683.html


In the long run, buying back meaningful quantities of shares probably makes sense if it's trading below book value. I think they last bought back shares in 2006 and probably paid over £6 or £7!

The company's market cap is almost £33 billion, so a £0.5 billion buyback in 2018, £1 billion in 2019 and £1 billion in 2020 would total £2.5 billion or over 7.5 percent of the company's outstanding shares at today's valuation. We'll see how accurate it turns out to be!

Best wishes


Mark.

hiriskpaul
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1084
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:04 pm
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 271 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#118411

Postby hiriskpaul » February 15th, 2018, 3:55 pm

I would have thought the priority for buybacks would start with the $2.65B callable of BCS-D they are paying 8.125% on. Not that I mind if they leave it alone for a few more years!

There is also the matter of the £3B or so bonds they sold to the Qataris with a coupon of 14% which become callable next year. If they don't call them at the first opportunity, the coupon goes up!

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 431
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 78 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#118426

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » February 15th, 2018, 5:07 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:There is also the matter of the £3B or so bonds they sold to the Qataris with a coupon of 14% which become callable next year. If they don't call them at the first opportunity, the coupon goes up!


Good point!

And then there's the matter of the rights issue in 2013: it would take a substantial buyback of the ordinaries in order to undo the dilution from that.

Best wishes

Mark.

richbun
Posts: 4
Joined: November 11th, 2016, 3:34 pm

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#129636

Postby richbun » April 3rd, 2018, 9:53 am

Interesting to see the market has not batted an eye after this weekend's activities as Barclays became the first bank to complete their structural reform.

Disclaimer: Employee of [the new] Barclays UK.

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2068
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 363 times
Been thanked: 709 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#129640

Postby Dod101 » April 3rd, 2018, 10:03 am

richbun wrote:Interesting to see the market has not batted an eye after this weekend's activities as Barclays became the first bank to complete their structural reform.

Disclaimer: Employee of [the new] Barclays UK.


And why would it?

Dod

hiriskpaul
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1084
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:04 pm
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 271 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#184252

Postby hiriskpaul » December 2nd, 2018, 1:32 am

For those who don't already know, the final outstanding USD preferred (BCS-D) is being called on 15th December. Very sorry to see it go, not just for the loss of the 8.125% coupon, but also for the CGT bill I will be landed with.

Looking at the Q3 report, the ords are starting to look quite a bargain were it not for the seemingly regular litigation and conduct costs and the risk of a very messy Brexit. Capital is robust and underlying earnings climbing nicely. Ridding themselves of the expensive BCS-D, 8.25% AT1s and not least the 14% RCIs next year is also going to help them along their way.

Thoughts from current/potential investors and barge-pole holders welcome.

ADrunkenMarcus
Lemon Slice
Posts: 431
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 11:16 am
Has thanked: 31 times
Been thanked: 78 times

Re: Anyone buying Barclays?

#184389

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 2nd, 2018, 8:01 pm

I'll just say I'm glad I sold BARC. A higher, rising dividend may finally be coming into view but will it survive the next downturn?

Best wishes

Mark.


Return to “Banking Sector”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests