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Lloyds performance over the last year?

vrdiver
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Lloyds performance over the last year?

#136095

Postby vrdiver » May 1st, 2018, 7:55 pm

The news re Lloyds has, to my layman's ears, been positive about Lloyds for the last year or so: PPI coming to an end, dividends resuming, business in good shape and expecting to become a regular little cash cow etc.

Why then has the share price drifted sideways for the last year, instead of a steady upward trajectory? Obviously Mr Market sees a less rosy picture (or had already priced in a high yielding profitability?)

The last quarter's results were another dose of good news, but the market has remained unimpressed.

Puzzled of VRD Towers.

GoSeigen
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#136104

Postby GoSeigen » May 1st, 2018, 8:43 pm

vrdiver wrote:The news re Lloyds has, to my layman's ears, been positive about Lloyds for the last year or so: PPI coming to an end, dividends resuming, business in good shape and expecting to become a regular little cash cow etc.

Why then has the share price drifted sideways for the last year, instead of a steady upward trajectory? Obviously Mr Market sees a less rosy picture (or had already priced in a high yielding profitability?)

The last quarter's results were another dose of good news, but the market has remained unimpressed.

Puzzled of VRD Towers.


Shhhh! Just keep buying while everyone else wants fixed-interest, irredeemable preference shares....


GS

GoSeigen
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#136492

Postby GoSeigen » May 3rd, 2018, 8:37 am

vrdiver wrote:The news re Lloyds has, to my layman's ears, been positive about Lloyds for the last year or so: PPI coming to an end, dividends resuming, business in good shape and expecting to become a regular little cash cow etc.

Why then has the share price drifted sideways for the last year, instead of a steady upward trajectory? Obviously Mr Market sees a less rosy picture (or had already priced in a high yielding profitability?)

The last quarter's results were another dose of good news, but the market has remained unimpressed.

Puzzled of VRD Towers.


My last reply looked frivolous but had a serious side, which is that I believe markets do not always price securities correctly. (Yes I think EMH is a crock.) Clearly recent market participants had the wrong idea about preference shares and I'd expect those to reprice to more realistic levels over time.

The ords I think are going through a similar period of relative under-valuation. Lloyds is recovering from a life-threatening crisis ten years ago. I see the stages of share price progression though a crisis as follows:
-a very long period of positive conditions for the share accompanied by growth in both the share price and dividends.
-increasing complacency by all parties, smart money selling, holders and new buyers don't care about price only how much dividend can be extracted. The capital and economic viability of the business are stripped away without anyone noticing. Finally, share price fails to keep pace with dividends. Dumbest money buys in.
-then (in 2007-9 for LLOY) the crash, where the true state of the business is exposed and perceived shareholder value evaporates. A rescue is required: injection of new capital, disposing of unprofitable business etc. The price remains depressed but volatile. The share is hated.
-gradually stability is restored; hatred of the business gradually turns to boredom/disinterest as the lurid headlines become infrequent and volatility drops. Smart money is buying; dumb money has been burned, doesn't care and is buying other expensive stuff.
-the previous two phases take years, typically a decade -- see tech stocks after 2000 for example. So I think banks are near the end of this phase. The scene is set for multi-decade growth again.

To me investors are just bored and uninterested in this sector. The price really means nothing -- you are right to be noticing the increasing profitability and positive noises from management. I'm just buying steadily, have a large exposure to bank shares already but don't mind going overweight. I think we will be rewarded.

GS

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#136498

Postby johnhemming » May 3rd, 2018, 8:58 am

i am long in Lloyds for similar reasons

UncleEbenezer
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#136886

Postby UncleEbenezer » May 4th, 2018, 3:40 pm

As far as I'm concerned, the big cloud hanging over LLOY is heavy exposure to an economy whose government is determined to harm it.

And I don't just mean brexit. Damaging pumping up of house prices has been going on a lot longer, leaving a sector that's huge for Lloyds addicted to ever more public money - and hence political risk.

DiamondEcho
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#137893

Postby DiamondEcho » May 9th, 2018, 8:04 pm

Woodford Funds, commentary - 24-Apr.

The valuation of this business remains compelling. As investors, we are receiving a c. 5% dividend yield and a c. 5% buyback and are thus being returned 10% of the market capitalisation on an annual basis. The bank is generating high returns on tangible equity (15.4% underlying) yet trades on a very modest multiple of tangible book (1.2x 2019E). A price/earnings ratio of 8.5x 2019 estimated earnings is, in our view, an undemanding multiple for a business that is growing underlying profitability at mid-to-high single digits per annum. The bank continues to demonstrate steady improvement in all key metrics, yet the valuation multiples have yet to respond – this is very encouraging for future share price performance.'

woodfordfunds.com/funds/holdings/lloyds/

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#137930

Postby johnhemming » May 9th, 2018, 9:46 pm

I haven't done the figures, but I don't think the buy back is the same as the dividend. I think it is about a third of the dividend.

beeswax
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143887

Postby beeswax » June 5th, 2018, 11:28 am

The SP seems to be drifting to a new year low and was under 63p this morning. Any reason for this?

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143910

Postby johnhemming » June 5th, 2018, 12:41 pm

My own view is that the economy is currently looking worse that is why I have sold some of my Lloyds (I did about a week ago). I have sold some of all of my UK banking shares as they depend substantially on the economy.

GoSeigen
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143911

Postby GoSeigen » June 5th, 2018, 12:41 pm

beeswax wrote:The SP seems to be drifting to a new year low and was under 63p this morning. Any reason for this?


Supply and demand.

GS

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143920

Postby johnhemming » June 5th, 2018, 2:20 pm

The difficulty is that the uncertainty caused by all the lack of decision about Brexit will prevent investment. Even when there is more certainty it will take some time for the economy to recover as investment won't pick up immediately.

scrumpyjack
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143943

Postby scrumpyjack » June 5th, 2018, 4:10 pm

I have quite a large holding of Lloyd's and similarly am a little surprised that the SP has not been stronger.

For so so long the recovery in bank profitability has been just round the corner but there always seems to be another 'exceptional' hit.

Longer term I think the old banks are going to have big big problems. Technology is going to (and already is) make competition from new entrants much easier. They are going to cherry pick the profitable bits and margins may fall sharply. The old banks are stuck with huge overheads (branches, expensive head offices etc) that their nimble disruptor competitors won't have.

The golden age post PPI of strong profits may not last very long!

If that isn't enough a Momentum government would almost certainly not be good news for bank profits.

Still holding Lloyd's and Barclays in hope

DiamondEcho
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#143945

Postby DiamondEcho » June 5th, 2018, 4:22 pm

beeswax wrote:The SP seems to be drifting to a new year low and was under 63p this morning. Any reason for this?

Govt dumped a slab of their holding of RBS thumping the SP, and it appears to be sector read-across [IMHO].

johnhemming wrote:My own view is that the economy is currently looking worse that is why I have sold some of my Lloyds (I did about a week ago). I have sold some of all of my UK banking shares as they depend substantially on the economy.

Au contraire, figures out earlier [services PMI] today show the UK forging ahead, whilst the EU [retail sales] is retrenching.

Would be nice to use the opportunity to pick up some more prime yield, but I reckon capital appreciation is out of the picture whilst the market reacts like this to some govt trimming. Ie you'd have to believe the yield% was sufficient compensation and be considering it as truer 'invest and forget' long-term investment.

monabri
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#189103

Postby monabri » December 24th, 2018, 1:07 pm

Six months on and the market has not been kind..Lloyds Ordinary shares are trading at ~50p and a yield of over 6%. Where to next?

johnhemming
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Re: Lloyds performance over the last year?

#189109

Postby johnhemming » December 24th, 2018, 1:28 pm

I am holding those I didn't sell earlier. I take the view that the uncertainty in itself is causing a problem. No deal would cause material economic damage, but even if it happens there is likely to be a deal after that which may be really humiliating, but will result from public pressure.

I did a risk analysis a short while ago and concluded that I should not sell my remaining banking shares.


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