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Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 9th, 2017, 7:38 pm
by Breelander
I hold that Once (and Future?) HYP candidate Lloyds.

Some 700m shares, or another 1%, have been sold by the Government in a little under a month - taking the Government's holding to...

The Commissioners of Her Majesty's Treasury wrote:Below 6%
http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00095970T/

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 10th, 2017, 12:24 am
by spiderbill
The question is whether once they've completely sold that the price will then be more likely to rise free of restraint; and if so how will that affect the yield.
I topped up about 14 months ago when prospects looked good but with yet more PPI charges piling on the pressure it has dropped 12.5%. Must admit that I'm tempted to add a few more in the fairly near future if the price holds until the gov share is approaching zero, in the hope of both catching the yield and riding exactly such a share price rise. But it wouldn't exactly be the first time they've caught me out if it goes awry!

cheers
Spiderbill

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 10th, 2017, 7:12 am
by Dod1010
Not getting into a discussion about what Gordon Brown did or did not do but what I cannot understand is that you are all trading on a) what once was and b) what might be. Had you kept the faith with say HSBC you would have been a lot better off income wise since 2009, as although HSBC is not yet either any where near where it was capital wise, it has at least kept paying a dividend for all of these years.

The yield is not bad; good luck to you. After all you deserve something for your patience. It might just be a decent investment one day.

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 10th, 2017, 8:10 am
by Wizard
ap8889 wrote:...management integrity and competence...


The much discussed (on the old Motley Fool banking board) actions taken by Lloyds to redeem the ECNs which culminated in a Supreme Court case last year gives insight and pose questions in equal measure IMHO. Are Lloyds willing to do and say anything to make money for shareholders or are they a bank that has no regard for small investors, even those who were willing to support them during their darkest hour, or indeed maybe both?

Terry.

Disc: my largest single holding is in Lloyds LLPD preference shares bought long before the ECN saga started and I have never held Lloyds equity or ECNs.

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 10th, 2017, 11:48 am
by Gengulphus
Dod1010 wrote:... but what I cannot understand is that you are all trading on a) what once was and b) what might be.

I think just about every HYP decision is based on what once was (historical data) and/or what might be (forecast data)!

What I suspect you really mean is something along the lines of "what once was, too many years in the past" and "what might be, too many years in the future", since we routinely look at data about times other than right now as long as the gap in time isn't too big. E.g. HYP1's construction used 5-year dividend records and forecast dividends, so looked up to about 5 years into the past and 1 year into the future.

And if you look at Lloyds right now from that point of view, well, it's got nothing badly wrong with it in that time frame. It doesn't meet the HYP1 standard of having an increasing dividend record over the last five years, but it doesn't have any cuts in them either. And HYPers aren't required to follow the HYP1 standard precisely, and could in particular have a less stringent dividend record criterion than HYP1.

In fact, it's those who do take the 2008/9 dividend cuts into account in their HYP trading decisions who are arguably trading on what once was, too many years in the past... Only "arguably", by the way - it's not an argument I would make myself, as I also think HYPers are free to have a more stringent dividend record criterion than HYP1.

Gengulphus

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 11th, 2017, 7:59 am
by Dod1010
What I meant by 'once was' was that Lloyds was once upon a time a great income stock (I held it myself in the pre 2008 days). That memory lingers and investors (or some of them anyway) are still living on it.

'What might be'. As a recovery share it holds great promise, or does it and when? The yield is not bad at the moment and maybe it does pass the test. I have not looked at the figures but I would prefer to wait and see how it settles down. In so doing I may miss the boat; if so so be it.

There are at least two distinct classes of investor here, those who have held since pre 2008 and those who are looking at it through fresh eyes.

The former cannot be blamed for whistling in the dark as they have had many unproductive years, and surely deserve some reward for their patience. I would use another word but that would be insulting I imagine.

As for the latter, they must decide if it is now worth a punt. It is not like a start up but it is now a very different company from the old Lloyds, a lot bigger for a start, and with many different brands to bring together. It will be interesting to see how it does, but it reminds me a bit of Aviva and RSA with a lot of baggage to sort out. I will not be buying.

Dod

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: January 31st, 2017, 9:10 am
by Gengulphus
The government now owns less than 5% of Lloyds - the story since the current selling programme started is:

21/11/2016: below 8% (announced 22/11/2016 in http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00127611P/)
12/12/2016: below 7% (announced 13/12/2016 in http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00106281R/)
06/01/2017: below 6% (announced 09/01/2017 in http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00095970T/)
27/01/2017: below 5% (announced 30/01/2017 in http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00153875V/)

So the government sales seem to be proceeding at a fairly steady rate of about 1% of the company per 3 weeks, and if it continues smoothly at that pace, the government should be completely out of the company around mid-May. A big if, of course!

Gengulphus

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 15th, 2017, 12:36 pm
by Breelander
Gengulphus wrote:...if it continues smoothly at that pace, the government should be completely out of the company around mid-May. A big if, of course!

Looks to be going smoothly. Now down to 2.95%

14/03/2017: below 3% (announced 15/03/2017) in http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00114781Z/

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 15th, 2017, 12:49 pm
by Snorvey
So do we all pile into Lloyd's in anticipation of the overhang being cleared? Hmmm....

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 16th, 2017, 12:29 am
by UncleEbenezer
Snorvey wrote:So do we all pile into Lloyd's in anticipation of the overhang being cleared? Hmmm....

Maybe that sentiment is the only thing propping the price up.

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 16th, 2017, 6:44 am
by johnhemming
UncleEbenezer wrote:Maybe that sentiment is the only thing propping the price up.
The price is held up by the underlying profitability of the business and the fact that PPI refunds will soon stop. The price has been depressed because of the government selling material quantities of the stock (as well as Brexit uncertainty and low interest rates).

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 16th, 2017, 8:56 am
by UncleEbenezer
johnhemming wrote:The price has been depressed because of the government selling

Precisely.

People believe that. Therefore people want to buy while prices are depressed. Lots of buying, holding the price up!

Once the government stake is gone, noone will see the price as artificially depressed, so buying interest drops. Meanwhile there's an overhang of people who went overweight pre-government-exit.

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: March 16th, 2017, 9:40 am
by johnhemming
I disagree with this. I take the view that the fundamentals are more important than that.

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: April 3rd, 2017, 11:16 am
by Breelander
Now down to 1.97%. Although this is now below the threshold for which reporting is required...

Lloyds Banking Group wrote:This TR-1 is being issued by Lloyds Banking Group plc ("the Group") on a voluntary basis... The Group may make further discretionary disclosures if the percentage of voting rights of UKFI in the Group falls below 1% or reaches 0% as a result of further disposals of shares.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00112631B/

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: April 28th, 2017, 11:32 am
by Breelander
Less than 1% now. 0.89% to be precise...
http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00126187D/

Going... Going... Gone!

Posted: May 17th, 2017, 9:50 am
by Breelander
7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or     0%
reached: vi, vii

http://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ban ... 00093475F/

Re: Government has sold more Lloyds

Posted: May 17th, 2017, 1:23 pm
by feder1
That that mean it might be worth having a go with RBS now!