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Lloyds Banking Group...

Changeable
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Lloyds Banking Group...

#91815

Postby Changeable » October 30th, 2017, 3:15 pm

At LONG last Lloyds Banking Group seem on the mend!

It has been very painful experience for me, partly because I was heavily overweight in them before they crashed, but that is another story and hope I have learnt my lesson.... :cry:

I see from the financial calendar of Lloyds that the final results for the year ending 2017 will be released next 21 February.

Is there a preliminary announcement due before the end of year results are released?

I see no mention of it in the financial calendar...

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#91891

Postby PinkDalek » October 30th, 2017, 6:42 pm

Changeable wrote:...

I see from the financial calendar of Lloyds that the final results for the year ending 2017 will be released next 21 February.

Is there a preliminary announcement due before the end of year results are released? ....


As you may have seen, the third quarter results were released on 25 October:

Q3 2017 Interim Management Statement
https://investegate.co.uk/lloyds-bankin ... 00035193U/

As you suggest, there should be nothing on that front between then and 21 February, as per:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/inves ... -calendar/

However, if keen, you could always keep an eye out for or even subscribe for alerts relating to RNS releases here:

https://investegate.co.uk/CompData.aspx ... ements&pno

Changeable
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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#91961

Postby Changeable » October 31st, 2017, 4:25 am

Thanks for the reply Pink Dalek!

I do subscribe to the RNS releases.

It's just that I was thinking that there will be 4 months before there is any firm news from Lloyds that may effect the share price.

Of course, a BoE interest rate increase may have a positive effect on the share price....

Changeable

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#92004

Postby GoSeigen » October 31st, 2017, 10:12 am

Changeable wrote:Thanks for the reply Pink Dalek!

I do subscribe to the RNS releases.

It's just that I was thinking that there will be 4 months before there is any firm news from Lloyds that may effect the share price.

Of course, a BoE interest rate increase may have a positive effect on the share price....

Changeable


Changeable,

You've clearly had a painful experience with these shares. I've had similar with other shares and here's what I think the lesson is: four months is meaningless! -- forget you have any LLoyds shares; don't even think about them for another five years, and spend your energy working on the other less painful parts of your portfolio. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised in the end.

Good luck.

GS

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#92023

Postby Changeable » October 31st, 2017, 11:22 am

GoSiegen

You've clearly had a painful experience with these shares.

Indeed!

I've had similar with other shares and here's what I think the lesson is: four months is meaningless!

I would normally agree with you but I have held these shares (very patiently!) since the early 90's and even at their current price, they represent a not insignificant amount of money for me.

Unfortunately, I will need to sell some of my Lloyds holding to complete a financial transaction due by next March. So the end of year results are the last short term event to hopefully give the price a kick in the right direction...

and spend your energy working on the other less painful parts of your portfolio.

The less painful parts of my portfolio don't need working on!

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised in the end
.
If I live long enough!

Thank you for your considered reply,

Changeable

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#92073

Postby GoSeigen » October 31st, 2017, 2:35 pm

Changeable wrote:
Unfortunately, I will need to sell some of my Lloyds holding to complete a financial transaction due by next March. So the end of year results are the last short term event to hopefully give the price a kick in the right direction...


Hmm, information about this transaction (or your age) was not in your earlier posts, thus my useless contirbution.

Assuming you have now given us all the relevant information, and assuming the sale of these shares is vital to your transaction, then the sensible thing to do is to sell now the majority of the shares you need, given their high volatility, leaving just a small number to sell later. Put in technical terms, you need to match the duration of your assets to the due date of your liability!

The reason for this is hopefully obvious: that in six months, the share price could just as likely collapse as soar, leaving you out of pocket and maybe putting the transaction at risk.

As another poster said there will be no results anouncement for a while; besides, that anouncement could be poorly received causing the price to drop. Also there's any number of other weak or strong RNSes that could be put out. IMO the latest results were excellent news but the market has greeted them with a yawn... hard to agrgue that now is not a good time to sell when typical six-month returns on assets are in low single figures, even for taking singificant risk.


GS

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#92381

Postby Changeable » November 1st, 2017, 4:14 pm

GoSeigen

assuming the sale of these shares is vital to your transaction,
Fortunately not vital, but it would be convenient.

you need to match the duration of your assets to the due date of your liability!
Very prudent and sensible advice!

then the sensible thing to do is to sell now the majority of the shares you need, given their high volatility,
Then why not sell them all? Surely, the small number remaining would be just as volatile?

hard to agrgue that now is not a good time to sell when typical six-month returns on assets are in low single figures, even for taking significant risk.
Yes true, but then I definitely loose the final and possible special dividend. I'm an optimist by nature and if I wasn't, why ever would I buy shares?
It's not that I have fallen in love with Lloyds, but I will give those shares that I intend to sell just a little longer. Maybe I will be sorry, but it wouldn't be the first time!

Generally, I agree with your good advice and thanks for your considered reply!

Changeable

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#92457

Postby GoSeigen » November 1st, 2017, 9:16 pm

Changeable wrote:GoSeigen

Then why not sell them all? Surely, the small number remaining would be just as volatile?


Yes, that's right, they will be just as volatile. However, it's about risk control. You have a liability which you want to meet without risking a large shortfall. A small shortfall might be acceptable though, especially if the risk of the fall also exposes you to the possibility of a big rise.

If you sold 90% of the required Lloyds shares now, and price of the remainder fell by 50% you'd only be 5% short next March -- not a disaster, just sell a few more than you anticipated. OTOH if LLOY doubles, then you have made 10% in six months, which no-one would cry about! In all circumstances the bulk of the cash you need is safe and ready (and can maybe even earn 1% in a savings account).

90% BTW is a figure I plucked out of the air. You would adjust this according to how painful a shortfall in your funds might be, if in 6 months time LLOY had crashed, say, 50%, which is unlikely but not unheard of! (It's happened to LLOY four times since the end of the banking crisis in Mar 2009, by my estimation.)

Yes true, but then I definitely loose the final and possible special dividend.


The final special dividend, which may or may not come, is already priced in by the market. So you would not "lose" it. It is already incorporated in the price.

I'm an optimist by nature and if I wasn't, why ever would I buy shares?
It's not that I have fallen in love with Lloyds, but I will give those shares that I intend to sell just a little longer. Maybe I will be sorry, but it wouldn't be the first time!


That's your choice and I personally think the odds are tipped in your favour. I have also been wrong many a time. Sold a couple of shares last week to "tidy up" my accounts and both promptly rose 20% :-(


GS

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#93029

Postby Changeable » November 4th, 2017, 12:17 pm

GoSiegen

You may well be right about selling the bulk of my Lloyds holding!
Interest rate increases,the £ fell and so did Lloyds.
And there I was thinking that an increases in the interest rate would actually be positive for the share price... :?
I know nothing!

Have a good weekend,

Changeable

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Re: Lloyds Banking Group...

#93031

Postby Snorvey » November 4th, 2017, 12:20 pm

The rate 'hike' (grrrr!) Was well 'signposted' (grrrr X2).

The markets moved on the 'forward' guidance. Which was quite doveish for rates.

Bugger me. I sound like I know what I'm talking about.


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