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More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

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DiamondEcho
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More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113019

Postby DiamondEcho » January 24th, 2018, 12:07 pm

The latest statistics were released this morning for UK wage growth, employment/unemployment, CPI/RPI, and they're generally looking robust. I can't easily quote all the data without breaching copyright, but I'll quote a couple of economists views and the source links to the articles.

"The latest labour market figures provided further reassurance that the economy held up in the fourth quarter of last year," said economist Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics. He said the 102,000 rise in employment dispelled concerns that weakness in recent months was a sign of things to come. "With an unusually weak sample in the first month of each quarter still weighing on the data for now, and hiring surveys remaining strong, a further acceleration in employment growth looks likely in the near term," he said.
"The good news for the economy is that more people are working with rising wages despite any uncertainty associated with leaving the European Union. Lord Jim O’Neil looks vindicated so far in his belief that strong domestic and global growth will overcome Brexit headwinds." Market analyst Jasper Lawler, London Capital Group.
https://uk.webfg.com/news/news-and-anno ... 92635.html

'The pound surged to a post-Brexit high on Wednesday following strong jobs data... data showed UK employment hit a record high in November. According to the Office for National Statistics, total employment increased to 102,000 in the quarter to November to 32.2m, taking the employment rate to 75.3%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, its lowest level since 1975...'
https://uk.webfg.com/news/fx/fx-round-u ... 92918.html

SalvorHardin
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113043

Postby SalvorHardin » January 24th, 2018, 1:44 pm

Much of the British economic data over the past year has been very good, though since this doesn't fit the "Brexit is an economic disaster" narrative it is either ignored by certain sections of the media or spun as "despite Brexit". Low unemployment and the strength of sterling against the US dollar are particularly strong indicators, though sterling strength is probably in part a technical rebound from having been oversold.

This week's Economist has an article on the Big Mac index, showing the undervaluation of sterling (as usual The Economist attributes all of this to Brexit).

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... ar-our-big

I particularly like using the FTSE250 as an indicator; if Brexit was going to be a disaster then the FTSE250 would have crashed rather than hitting record highs. Of course this may be a strong indicator that we are going to end up with "Brexit in name only" with the eventual deal largely mimicking the current arrangements with only a few cosmetic changes (my money is on this scenario).

DiamondEcho
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113236

Postby DiamondEcho » January 25th, 2018, 10:51 am

An extract from last night's overnight 'Trader thoughts' from IG. The stand out word is 'remarkable', but it also remarkable IMO that the mainstream media are collectively ignoring this story.

'Pound Earns Its Own Rally: It is difficult to separate strength from individual currencies from the weakness of the US Dollar. When we look to EUR/USD, do we see strength in the former or weakness in the latter? Looking across various Euro-based pairs, we see very little of the enthusiasm that the benchmark cross reports. In fact, an equally-weighted index of the most liquid Euro-based majors is virtually unmoved. That puts the responsibility for the dramatic move at the feet of a tumbling Dollar. It is true that GBP/USD is also being geared by the Greenback’s crash, but the 1.5% rally to post-Brexit highs isn’t just the doing of a cratered US currency. Looking at an equally-weighted Sterling index, we see broad strength. What was the making of this charge? The December labour report certainly contributed to the enthusiasm. While jobless claims rose 8,600, the employment change over three months rose a remarkable 102,000 while the ILO unemployment rate stood at 4.3% and weekly earnings excluding bonus ticked up to 2.4 percent.'
https://www.ig.com/uk/indices-news/2018 ... f-it-41767

dspp
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113338

Postby dspp » January 25th, 2018, 3:40 pm

DE,

By eye using oanda.com the EUR/USD has moved similarly to GBP/USD, whereas EUR/GBP has flatlined since the Brexit devaluation. So my take is that the USD move is due to USD weakness, not GBP strength.

Turning to the wider UK economy my observation is that it is doing OK, but not as well as it should. Interest rates are too low (though I can levy thsat charge everywhere) and that and debt is keeping UK economy up, plus that 15% Brexit devaluation has helped. But still trade figures are not where they need to be (i.e. are still red, not black); debt remains high; and growth has slipped from top of G7 to low end of G7. That all looks weak to me. The best news is employment remains high, but wage growth is very weak which to my mind is a good signal of the underlying reality. And all this is whilst the UK is still in EU, and may still do a BINO to remain in EEA/EFTA.

regards, dspp

DiamondEcho
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113435

Postby DiamondEcho » January 26th, 2018, 11:12 am

Re: GDP/trade figures, the latest data out this morning.

Extracts:
' 10am: FTSE 100 boosted by UK growth figures.
FTSE 100 is climbing in morning trade as the market was cheered by positive UK growth data. The GDP (gross domestic product), the value of all goods and services, surprised positively, with growth in GDP for the fourth quarter coming in slightly above expectations at 0.5%. Economists and analysts had forecast growth of 0.4% in the quarter.
The dominant services sector grew by 0.6%. Industrial production grew 0.6%, and within that figure was an especially strong showing from manufacturing, which grew output by 1.3%. However, construction shrank again, making it three consecutive quarters of contraction.
James Hughes, market analyst at Axitrader, said: "The strong reading will be seen as positive news for Britain as it still tries to fight off negativity created by the Brexit negotiations. "Although we still have no idea what post Brexit Britain will look like, the numbers will give Theresa May a little more ammunition, and give others the feeling that she is not just steering a sinking ship into the abyss. "The services sector was a big boost for the economy in the fourth quarter, and the stronger performance here will lead many to believe we could still outperform growth expectations for 2018."

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... 90665.html

Ashfordian
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113441

Postby Ashfordian » January 26th, 2018, 11:27 am

If Carlsberg did 'expert predicted recessions' this would probably be the best 'expert predicted recession' in the world.

Watis
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#113444

Postby Watis » January 26th, 2018, 11:47 am

Ashfordian wrote:If Carlsberg did 'expert predicted recessions' this would probably be the best 'expert predicted recession' in the world.


Just like back in 2012 - when we enjoyed the wettest drought on record . . .

Watis

stewamax
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Re: More positive stats on the UK economy this morning

#118547

Postby stewamax » February 16th, 2018, 11:29 am

The best news is employment remains high, but wage growth is very weak which to my mind is a good signal of the underlying reality.

Which to me means that meaningful investment in capital assets to improve productivity is not likely to be happening...


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