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Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

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ap8889
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Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155603

Postby ap8889 » July 27th, 2018, 2:11 pm

Trumps USA is motoring ahead. When will his detractors acknowledge his success?

XFool
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155658

Postby XFool » July 27th, 2018, 6:12 pm

Here's another perspective:

Quartz

Don't ask me, I'm not an economist. ;)

nmdhqbc
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155660

Postby nmdhqbc » July 27th, 2018, 6:13 pm

greatest potus of all time

SalvorHardin
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155662

Postby SalvorHardin » July 27th, 2018, 6:24 pm

ap8889 wrote:Trumps USA is motoring ahead. When will his detractors acknowledge his success?

I'd guess never. It would be too difficult for them.

I know one of these people offline; he is increasingly bitter about Trump's successes and jumps through hoops to "prove" that the success didn't really happen. I do get a nice bit of Schadenfreude when I tell him what the S&P 500 is doing.

They predicted an economic disaster and instead America has a booming economy and stockmarket. Like their predictions of doom and gloom for the UK in the second half of 2016, they're as accurate as an Imperial Stormtrooper after a dozen pints.

As someone who is heavily invested in the USA I welcome the excellent performance of its economy. It goes to show what can be done with a pro-business executive whose policy is to deregulate, rather than the statist red-tape worshippers we have in the UK.

Increasingly it's becoming a good investment to look at the macroeconomic forecasts which are favoured by the Guardian - BBC - New York Times axis and bet against them.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155667

Postby Itsallaguess » July 27th, 2018, 7:08 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:
ap8889 wrote:Trumps USA is motoring ahead. When will his detractors acknowledge his success?


I'd guess never. It would be too difficult for them.

I know one of these people offline; he is increasingly bitter about Trump's successes and jumps through hoops to "prove" that the success didn't really happen.


I was reading an interview a few weeks back, where it was suggested that the 2009-2017 Obama presidency was very long period in US politics where some sections of the US population and some sections of the US media were in a position where criticism of his office might have been difficult to generate, given that he was the first black president of the USA.

His argument went that there was a prolonged period of 'pent-up' political criticism between 2009 and 2017 that was looking for an outlet once Obama's second-term came to an end, and it's clear that the wishes of all concerned were then well and truly answered when Trump walked through the White House door, giving as he does, an almost endless supply of potential opportunities to again rail against the highest office in the US.

Whilst we can't ignore what Trump is and how he conducts himself, I thought this was an interesting view from a US citizen, and it does go some way to explain why some of the few clear successes that Trump has handled have been persistently drowned out by the white-noise of criticism from many quarters.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155678

Postby johnhemming » July 27th, 2018, 7:59 pm

SalvorHardin wrote:I do get a nice bit of Schadenfreude when I tell him what the S&P 500 is doing.

The real question is one as to how you measure success. I don't know enough about the government finances in the USA to work out my view on the changes to corporate tax. In the UK we have come to the conclusion that taking corporations too heavily reduces the overall tax take and undermines the economy. Hence that could have a positive effect on the US economy, however, it could also cause problems with the deficit.

When it comes to shale and the increases in oil prices that will also have an effect on the US economy and I have not tried to estimate what impact that is having.

The only area where I think Trump could achieve something is with North Korea simply because he is so unpredictable.

However, generally what he is doing is bad for the USA and bad for the world. In itself raising questions about Nato undermines the security of the Western Countries. Tolerating Russian involvement in the US democratic process is really foolish. Starting tariff battles (and Obama did this as well) is not clever. He has also managed to create sympathetic stories about illegal immigrants by being harsh with their children.

Voters like someone who is seen to fight on their behalf. It is harder for them to recognise that the fighting is doing them harm. Hence will see about 2020. However, I remain of the view that he is the worst US President that I know anything about in detail and his lack of concern about ethics should disqualify him from office.

I don't think oil prices will go down substantially from where they are so the US will probably continue making a lot of cash out of shale during this presidency.

ap8889
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155712

Postby ap8889 » July 27th, 2018, 9:28 pm

Tolerating Russian involvement in the US democratic process is really foolish.


What Russian involvement? The only thing of significance the Russians have done is help expose the incriminating emails proving the rigging of the Democratic primaries in favour of Hilary.

That is to say the Russians did democracy in America a favour, while the Democrats were perverting it.

XFool
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155734

Postby XFool » July 27th, 2018, 11:50 pm

ap8889 wrote:
Tolerating Russian involvement in the US democratic process is really foolish.

What Russian involvement? The only thing of significance the Russians have done is help expose the incriminating emails proving the rigging of the Democratic primaries in favour of Hilary.

So THAT "Russian involvement"?

Wikepedia

ap8889 wrote:That is to say the Russians did democracy in America a favour, while the Democrats were perverting it.

You mean "the Russians did democracy in America a favour" by helping clear the path for Trump?

How wonderful we have such an independent and disinterested actor as the Russian state helping to keep democracy alive and healthy in America. Possibly they could offer the same kind of service to us in the UK? :)

ap8889
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#155815

Postby ap8889 » July 28th, 2018, 2:57 pm

If the Democrats had been acting democratically there would have been no incriminating emails to leak. Cast iron demonstration that American democracy is more at risk from Democrats than Putin.

When Democrats point the finger at Russia, they have three fingers pointing back at themselves.

zico
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#157166

Postby zico » August 4th, 2018, 5:48 pm

Here's an interesting chart link. Just change the time span to 10 years - there's an obvious dip due to the financial crash, but then see how US growth performance looks like since then. There certainly doesn't appear to be any obvious "Trump effect" - not to me, anyhow.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

ap8889
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#157182

Postby ap8889 » August 4th, 2018, 7:33 pm

zico wrote:Here's an interesting chart link. Just change the time span to 10 years - there's an obvious dip due to the financial crash, but then see how US growth performance looks like since then. There certainly doesn't appear to be any obvious "Trump effect" - not to me, anyhow.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth


It is increasingly hard to sustain GDP growth from a biophysical economics perspective as the flow of resources required for growth becomes harder to obtain owing to depletion. No acorn grows to the sky. The fact that rapid growth of an already vast economy has happened under Trump is a big success. 4% represents a projected doubling of the US economy in 18 years. Incredible!

And yet all the Leftists in America were screeching about how Trump was going to be a ruinous disaster. Now he has done well are they going to apologise?

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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#162381

Postby mosschops » August 27th, 2018, 11:43 am

They are probably anticipating the moaning about debt they’ll get when they get back in after the Republicans have blown it out by 21% in a year after years of reductions.

zico
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#162964

Postby zico » August 29th, 2018, 5:51 pm

https://twitter.com/TomthunkitsMind/sta ... 3224281090

Here's an amusing little clip from Twitter of an interviewer being knocked off his stride by pesky facts.
If you can't be bothered loading it here's the core bits:-

Host "When was the last time you heard 4% GDP growth?"
Stephanie Ruhle: "Five times during the Obama administration."
Host "Ah well, yeah, bluster, bluster, that's not the point etc"

Spet0789
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Re: Trump triumphs again: 4% US growth

#163007

Postby Spet0789 » August 29th, 2018, 8:44 pm

There’s no question that a pro-business President is a good thing for the economy. But Trump has also provided a material fiscal stimulus to the US economy and the long term effects of higher debt to GDP are yet to play out. Also, irrespective of his economic record it’s beyond doubt that he’s an arrogant, sexually-incontinent, narcissistic fantasist. For that reason I cannot respect him. You can have deregulation and fiscal stimulus without undermining the rule of law, pussy-grabbing and ham-fisted foreign policy.

It’s also worth mentioning the empirical observation that economic growth in the first year or so of a new presidency has tended to be better than in the last years of the prior presidency.


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