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Is rising inflation looming?

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GoSeigen
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502384

Postby GoSeigen » May 24th, 2022, 8:35 am

scotview wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
It shows how an indigenous source of energy is important to prosperity and survival.


Interesting.

On a practical note, we have just received our new capped rates from Scottish Power. Electricity standing charge has gone from 26p to 50p/day , while gas standing charge has hardly changed at around 27p/day.

So some of this "energy" inflation seems to be entirely discretionary.


Ever heard of a free market economy?

GS

scotview
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502386

Postby scotview » May 24th, 2022, 8:38 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Ever heard of a free market economy?

GS


The Energy Market a "free market economy".....you are joking aren't you ? If it was truly free and not fully regulated/subsidised, then a lot of people would have energy bills an order of magnitude larger than they are now.

Dod101
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502393

Postby Dod101 » May 24th, 2022, 8:54 am

scotview wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
It shows how an indigenous source of energy is important to prosperity and survival.


Interesting.

On a practical note, we have just received our new capped rates from Scottish Power. Electricity standing charge has gone from 26p to 50p/day , while gas standing charge has hardly changed at around 27p/day.

So some of this "energy" inflation seems to be entirely discretionary.


I guess that the electricity companies would say that the standing charge helps to fund the cost of funding the transmission lines and that more of these are required to take the electricity from where it is being generated to where it is needed.

Dod

GoSeigen
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502417

Postby GoSeigen » May 24th, 2022, 9:52 am

scotview wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Ever heard of a free market economy?

GS


The Energy Market a "free market economy".....you are joking aren't you ? If it was truly free and not fully regulated/subsidised, then a lot of people would have energy bills an order of magnitude larger than they are now.


Okay, so you wish that there was a bureaucracy controlling energy prices in such accord with your own logic that you are never surprised at what the prices turn out to be...

Fair enough...


GS

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502443

Postby servodude » May 24th, 2022, 11:38 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
Edit to add, as an aside, how does Switzerland generate enough electricity in the Winter when the hydro is all frozen?


It doesn't... yet

Nimrod103
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502452

Postby Nimrod103 » May 24th, 2022, 12:03 pm

Dod101 wrote:
scotview wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
It shows how an indigenous source of energy is important to prosperity and survival.


Interesting.

On a practical note, we have just received our new capped rates from Scottish Power. Electricity standing charge has gone from 26p to 50p/day , while gas standing charge has hardly changed at around 27p/day.

So some of this "energy" inflation seems to be entirely discretionary.


I guess that the electricity companies would say that the standing charge helps to fund the cost of funding the transmission lines and that more of these are required to take the electricity from where it is being generated to where it is needed.

Dod


AIUI but I might be wrong is that all energy companies have been and continue to make big losses on supplying energy at capped rates, and that they are and will continue to recover those losses via the hugely increased standing charge. That way, all future consumers will recompense the companies for their losses.

Dod101
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502459

Postby Dod101 » May 24th, 2022, 12:20 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
scotview wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
It shows how an indigenous source of energy is important to prosperity and survival.


Interesting.

On a practical note, we have just received our new capped rates from Scottish Power. Electricity standing charge has gone from 26p to 50p/day , while gas standing charge has hardly changed at around 27p/day.

So some of this "energy" inflation seems to be entirely discretionary.


I guess that the electricity companies would say that the standing charge helps to fund the cost of funding the transmission lines and that more of these are required to take the electricity from where it is being generated to where it is needed.

Dod


AIUI but I might be wrong is that all energy companies have been and continue to make big losses on supplying energy at capped rates, and that they are and will continue to recover those losses via the hugely increased standing charge. That way, all future consumers will recompense the companies for their losses.


Do we know if the electricity generators are making a loss through the cap? If so, I would have thought that they would be squealing, but if that were the case, then where are the profits coming from that constitute the windfall? The standing charges are not that big surely?

Dod

servodude
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502463

Postby servodude » May 24th, 2022, 12:34 pm

Dod101 wrote:Do we know if the electricity generators are making a loss through the cap?


It depends on how they're regulated.
If you remove the coupling to "end customers" they don't care; their output gets put in the big fungible bucket that the supply firms buy from globally (notwithstanding short term effects that overwhelm the markets)

ursaminortaur
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502468

Postby ursaminortaur » May 24th, 2022, 12:55 pm

servodude wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Edit to add, as an aside, how does Switzerland generate enough electricity in the Winter when the hydro is all frozen?


It doesn't... yet


Water is unusual in that ice is less dense than liquid water and hence floats. This means that it freezes from the top down and the ice layer would in the worst European winters be at most a few feet to a couple of metres thick. Reservoirs tend to be somewhat deeper and hence contain lots of liquid water even at the height of winter which could still be released through sluices lower down in the dam. Thus I doubt winter makes that much difference to the amount of hydro-electric power that can be generated from a full reservoir.

servodude
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502482

Postby servodude » May 24th, 2022, 2:06 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
servodude wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Edit to add, as an aside, how does Switzerland generate enough electricity in the Winter when the hydro is all frozen?


It doesn't... yet


Water is unusual in that ice is less dense than liquid water and hence floats. This means that it freezes from the top down and the ice layer would in the worst European winters be at most a few feet to a couple of metres thick. Reservoirs tend to be somewhat deeper and hence contain lots of liquid water even at the height of winter which could still be released through sluices lower down in the dam. Thus I doubt winter makes that much difference to the amount of hydro-electric power that can be generated from a full reservoir.


And Thank F*** for "the anomalous expansion of water" or none of us would be here :)

I was just pointing out (in brief and in between beers that) Switzerland still doesn't produce (yet) enough electricity in the winter... but that might be demand side led (northern hemisphere heating and such type concerns)

-sd

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502611

Postby servodude » May 25th, 2022, 8:17 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
servodude wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
I agree it is mainly currently supply side, caused almost entirely by high gas prices. Switzerland, which produces its own electricity*, has an inflation rate of only 2.4%.

Don't forget Ukrainian/Russian grain, Russian metals, and Ukranian manufactured exports (they make a lot of vehicle parts apparently).

So actually I think the supply side issues are more complex.

I'm guessing that large demand for certain precursors by Arms manufacturers who will now be producing more, could possibly be squeezing metals, organic chemicals, semiconductor supplies even more (?).

Matt


Presumably Switzerland is suffering the same supply side issues, so why the difference? I can only explain it in terms of the price of gas, which makes the difference between 2.4 and our 9%. But if the BoE don't act to restrain wage growth now, our inflation rate will only very slowly decline.


Gas might be enough to make the difference
- last I looked it was a very minor part (less than 5% I think) of a source for Swiss electricity but I haven't looked at direct use for heating

There's also the possibility their other trading might have taken on fewer recent costs increases relative to the UK (their bilateral agreements with the neighbours being long standing and well bedded in)

- sd


The difference in cpi is entirely due to the price of electricity: https://www.efginternational.com/uk/ins ... n-low.html



That seems to consider CPI from the view of the Swiss vs the rest of the developed world in general

I think the UK might be a special case at the moment
- and I remembered seeing something pertinent recently; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/brexit-explains-80-of-u-k-inflation-former-boe-official-says

Dismissing out of hand or ignoring the effects of a step shock in costs would be silly and par for the course

-sd

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502620

Postby Itsallaguess » May 25th, 2022, 8:37 am

servodude wrote:
That seems to consider CPI from the view of the Swiss vs the rest of the developed world in general

I think the UK might be a special case at the moment

- and I remembered seeing something pertinent recently; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/brexit-explains-80-of-u-k-inflation-former-boe-official-says

Dismissing out of hand or ignoring the effects of a step shock in costs would be silly and par for the course


The CPI rate for food in April 2022 -

European Union - 8.9%

Image

Source - https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nu ... eAction.do



UK - 6.7%

Image

Source - https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7gk/mm23

Perhaps not so special after all...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502725

Postby 88V8 » May 25th, 2022, 12:21 pm

You call that inflation? Pffft.
Yesterday paid >£20/lb for fillet steak from the farmer down the lane.
I recall my mother in the 60s returning in a high dudgeon from shopping because the butcher had charged her 7/6d for fillet.

Mind you, it's not all bad. When the grain shortage really kicks in, it will be cheaper to eat cake :)

V8

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#502980

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 26th, 2022, 3:37 pm

88V8 wrote:You call that inflation? Pffft.
Yesterday paid >£20/lb for fillet steak from the farmer down the lane.
I recall my mother in the 60s returning in a high dudgeon from shopping because the butcher had charged her 7/6d for fillet.

Mind you, it's not all bad. When the grain shortage really kicks in, it will be cheaper to eat cake :)

V8

We have stealth inflation too.

So I've doing an outdoor "building" project. Just a gravel filled path lined by bricks I've mucked down to prevent gravel escaping into the lawn.

Ready mix mortar - the local merchants no longer actually sell this "ready mixed" i.e. chuck the whole lot into the barrow, add water mix around for 2 mins. This obviously requires all the ingredients to be bone-dry else the mix would go off in storage. Instead you get a sealed bag of wet sand, and inside this another smaller very well sealed bag of portland cement, correctly measured etc. The guys explained this is, as far as they know, a cost issue which their suppliers attempted to offset this way, and "it's been like that since the pandemic mate".

This makes quite a difference! Since I had to pre mix in the barrow myself for about 5-10 minutes prior to wetting it. Which is v hard + tedious work. Especially after several bags.

Next "it's been like that since the pandemic mate"/inflation issue. I tried the local guys, Travis Perkins and Wickes. Cannot easily buy graded driveway gravel now, i.e. gravel where the pebbles are uniformly just short of an inch in size. No mate, our suppliers now say, it's too pricey to grade it that well. Instead one puts up with "20mm and down" a.k.a. between 4mm-20mm pebbles. Of course the larger pebbles will rise to the surface, but that's not really the point. The additional reason for wanting the bigger pebbles is for good drainage characteristics.

Groan....

Matt

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#503836

Postby miserlymartin » May 30th, 2022, 7:34 pm

Useful info Matt. I had no idea about that, plus also interesting to hear about your project, good luck.

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#503936

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 31st, 2022, 9:32 am

miserlymartin wrote:Useful info Matt. I had no idea about that, plus also interesting to hear about your project, good luck.

Finished! Gravel in, levelled section of lawn reseeded, and already sprouting!

:D

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#505784

Postby schober » June 8th, 2022, 12:53 pm

Things were ok till 1975 and then the rot set in and nothing much has changed since

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/cdko/mm23

GoSeigen
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#505793

Postby GoSeigen » June 8th, 2022, 1:18 pm

schober wrote:Things were ok till 1975 and then the rot set in and nothing much has changed since

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/cdko/mm23


Very funny.

Try either:
1. A chart of inflation rather than the price index.
2. A semi-log chart of the price index.

Either of the above will inform you infinitely better than the one you chose. Any series which grows geometrically should have a characteristic exponential shape on a linear plot, the chart you posted doesn't even show that. So if understood correctly it actually demonstrates clearly that inflation has NOT grown geometrically -- which is the opposite of what you are trying to say.

GS

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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#505991

Postby Bubblesofearth » June 9th, 2022, 8:36 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Try either:
1. A chart of inflation rather than the price index.
2. A semi-log chart of the price index.

Either of the above will inform you infinitely better than the one you chose. Any series which grows geometrically should have a characteristic exponential shape on a linear plot, the chart you posted doesn't even show that. So if understood correctly it actually demonstrates clearly that inflation has NOT grown geometrically -- which is the opposite of what you are trying to say.

GS


For inflation to have grown exponentially by the amount shown over the 75 year time period (about 46x) it would have had to have risen by just over 5% p.a. Instead it has periods of relative quiescence interrupted by big jumps.

BoE

GoSeigen
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Re: Is rising inflation looming?

#506070

Postby GoSeigen » June 9th, 2022, 2:42 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
Try either:
1. A chart of inflation rather than the price index.
2. A semi-log chart of the price index.

Either of the above will inform you infinitely better than the one you chose. Any series which grows geometrically should have a characteristic exponential shape on a linear plot, the chart you posted doesn't even show that. So if understood correctly it actually demonstrates clearly that inflation has NOT grown geometrically -- which is the opposite of what you are trying to say.

GS


For inflation to have grown exponentially by the amount shown over the 75 year time period (about 46x) it would have had to have risen by just over 5% p.a. Instead it has periods of relative quiescence interrupted by big jumps.

BoE


Apologies and well spotted -- in my post "inflation has NOT grown geometrically" should have read "the price index has NOT grown geometrically".

GS


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