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Collapse of the UK housing market

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CliffEdge
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#574010

Postby CliffEdge » March 8th, 2023, 4:56 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:Not everyone can own their own house because there aren't enough houses for everyone to own one. Therefore whatever happens to prices, houses will not become more affordable - unless many new houses are built or many of the proles die.
Actually many old proles are scheduled to die but their replacements arrive across the channel every day.


Of course there aren't enough houses for everyone to own as a single occupant. However there are enough rooms in those houses to more than accommodate everyone. Most houses are multi-bedroom but a fairly large percentage of those privately held houses have one or more spare bedrooms.
Landlords are undoubtedly more efficient in filling those rooms than your average family since a rented room provides additional income to the landlord.

With the combination of owner occupied housing and landlord owned rented properties we have managed to roughly keep the balance so that most people have a roof over their head rather than sleeping rough on the streets. We aren't back in the depression of the 1930s with shanty towns in city parks like the US Hoovervilles.

https://www.insider.com/new-york-central-park-hooverville-great-depression-photos-2020-9

In the early 1930s, New York City's Central Park was home to a small shanty town that residents experiencing homelessness built.

The ramshackle town was a "Hooverville," named after Republican President Herbert Hoover. Americans held him responsible for not doing enough to alleviate the Great Depression.

Hoovervilles appeared all over the US in the 1930s, some with as many as 15,000 residents. Despite their dilapidated condition, reports highlight how those living in them did their best to keep their homes tidy, and themselves presentable.

One man told a New York Times reporter in 1931: "We work hard to keep it clean, because that is important. I never lived like this before."

Would ownership of a room or two be some kind of lease?

ursaminortaur
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#574395

Postby ursaminortaur » March 9th, 2023, 8:13 pm

CliffEdge wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:Not everyone can own their own house because there aren't enough houses for everyone to own one. Therefore whatever happens to prices, houses will not become more affordable - unless many new houses are built or many of the proles die.
Actually many old proles are scheduled to die but their replacements arrive across the channel every day.


Of course there aren't enough houses for everyone to own as a single occupant. However there are enough rooms in those houses to more than accommodate everyone. Most houses are multi-bedroom but a fairly large percentage of those privately held houses have one or more spare bedrooms.
Landlords are undoubtedly more efficient in filling those rooms than your average family since a rented room provides additional income to the landlord.

With the combination of owner occupied housing and landlord owned rented properties we have managed to roughly keep the balance so that most people have a roof over their head rather than sleeping rough on the streets. We aren't back in the depression of the 1930s with shanty towns in city parks like the US Hoovervilles.

https://www.insider.com/new-york-central-park-hooverville-great-depression-photos-2020-9

In the early 1930s, New York City's Central Park was home to a small shanty town that residents experiencing homelessness built.

The ramshackle town was a "Hooverville," named after Republican President Herbert Hoover. Americans held him responsible for not doing enough to alleviate the Great Depression.

Hoovervilles appeared all over the US in the 1930s, some with as many as 15,000 residents. Despite their dilapidated condition, reports highlight how those living in them did their best to keep their homes tidy, and themselves presentable.

One man told a New York Times reporter in 1931: "We work hard to keep it clean, because that is important. I never lived like this before."

Would ownership of a room or two be some kind of lease?


I was talking about owned properties and rented rooms rather than complicating things by considering the different types of owned property in terms of leasehold and freehold.

CliffEdge
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#575056

Postby CliffEdge » March 12th, 2023, 1:19 pm

You complicated things by talking about rooms. What have rented rooms got to do with home ownership?

ursaminortaur
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#575155

Postby ursaminortaur » March 12th, 2023, 6:29 pm

CliffEdge wrote:You complicated things by talking about rooms. What have rented rooms got to do with home ownership?


Because the housing market consists of both owner occupied housing and rented properties and with both of those there is enough housing to accomodate the UK population.

Your statement

CliffEdge wrote:Not everyone can own their own house because there aren't enough houses for everyone to own one


Is irrelevant since noone is suggesting that every individual in the UK needs to own their own single occupancy home.

Lootman
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#575159

Postby Lootman » March 12th, 2023, 6:37 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:You complicated things by talking about rooms. What have rented rooms got to do with home ownership?

Because the housing market consists of both owner occupied housing and rented properties and with both of those there is enough housing to accomodate the UK population.

Your statement

CliffEdge wrote:Not everyone can own their own house because there aren't enough houses for everyone to own one

Is irrelevant since noone is suggesting that every individual in the UK needs to own their own single occupancy home.

Yes, the so-called HMO (houses in multiple occupancy) market is large and growing, and not just because of student demand. I ran a couple of my rentals that way in the 1990s, and now my sons run two rental properties that way. They are about the same age as their tenants which helps.

Some councils regulate HMOs and require licenses for them. Others do not bother, so it matters where it is. But yes, there is vibrant demand for shared housing and some people prefer it.

funduffer
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#575259

Postby funduffer » March 13th, 2023, 8:34 am

The UK has 4 million missing homes


according to the Centre for Cities.

https://www.centreforcities.org/publica ... ng-crisis/

They blame planning rules (mainly), and advocate planning reform via zoning.

Isn't that (zoning) what the government proposed but then was squashed by backbenchers?

FD

CliffEdge
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#576754

Postby CliffEdge » March 18th, 2023, 7:21 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:You complicated things by talking about rooms. What have rented rooms got to do with home ownership?


Because the housing market consists of both owner occupied housing and rented properties and with both of those there is enough housing to accomodate the UK population.

Your statement

CliffEdge wrote:Not everyone can own their own house because there aren't enough houses for everyone to own one


Is irrelevant since noone is suggesting that every individual in the UK needs to own their own single occupancy home.

What's the problem then?

ursaminortaur
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#576774

Postby ursaminortaur » March 18th, 2023, 10:52 pm

CliffEdge wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Because the housing market consists of both owner occupied housing and rented properties and with both of those there is enough housing to accomodate the UK population.

Your statement



Is irrelevant since noone is suggesting that every individual in the UK needs to own their own single occupancy home.

What's the problem then?


Although there is enough accomodation provided by the combined rental and owner-occupied properties there is a greater aspiration in the UK than most other European countries for renters to want to own their own properties rather than rent. To fully satisfy this aspiration would require more houses to be built since owner-occupied properties are less fully utilised than rented properties (Landlords want to maximise the utilisation of their properties as that provides them with greater profits whilst families like to have spare rooms for storage, accomodating guests, planned accomodation for future children, etc etc and may also hold onto larger properties as an investment which they can profit from when they downsize at some point in the distant future).

bruncher
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579138

Postby bruncher » March 28th, 2023, 6:52 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
CliffEdge wrote:What's the problem then?


there is a greater aspiration in the UK than most other European countries for renters to want to own their own properties rather than rent. .


The aspiration to own is largely due to the poor quality rented accommodation and unfair terms that UK renters have to endure. I am an owner occupier but would would prefer to rent if the property was spacious, well looked after, with long-term security, but that is not available in the UK except in very few cases. Why would anyone want to tie up huge amounts of capital in their housing if it wasn't necessary?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579140

Postby Lootman » March 28th, 2023, 7:02 pm

bruncher wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:there is a greater aspiration in the UK than most other European countries for renters to want to own their own properties rather than rent. .

The aspiration to own is largely due to the poor quality rented accommodation and unfair terms that UK renters have to endure. I am an owner occupier but would would prefer to rent if the property was spacious, well looked after, with long-term security, but that is not available in the UK except in very few cases. Why would anyone want to tie up huge amounts of capital in their housing if it wasn't necessary?

Conversely why would I "want to tie up huge amounts of capital" in a property if I knew that I could not get rid of my tenant if desired?

And then there is that tax=-free capital gain if I live in it :)

scotview
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579142

Postby scotview » March 28th, 2023, 7:11 pm

If the supply of housing isn't growing but the population is, won't the housing market only go in one direction ?

dealtn
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579217

Postby dealtn » March 29th, 2023, 9:20 am

scotview wrote:If the supply of housing isn't growing but the population is, won't the housing market only go in one direction ?


Yes (in the long term). But it isn't the case as you describe.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579240

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » March 29th, 2023, 10:49 am

I'm not Panorama's biggest fan. However, I'd suggest it would be worth considering watching this episode.

What's Gone Wrong With Our Housing?

It's not an answer to the private sector housing problem, focusing instead, on social housing. Overall though, I think it raises some fundamental issues. Profiteering, skills shortages and exploitation are all raised.

AiY(D)

ursaminortaur
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579282

Postby ursaminortaur » March 29th, 2023, 1:13 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:I'm not Panorama's biggest fan. However, I'd suggest it would be worth considering watching this episode.

What's Gone Wrong With Our Housing?

It's not an answer to the private sector housing problem, focusing instead, on social housing. Overall though, I think it raises some fundamental issues. Profiteering, skills shortages and exploitation are all raised.

AiY(D)


Yes, and as it said we have now pretty much come full circle back to the days of slum landlords and overcrowded properties.

Lootman
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579299

Postby Lootman » March 29th, 2023, 1:40 pm

ursaminortaur wrote: we have now pretty much come full circle back to the days of slum landlords and overcrowded properties.

The standard of rental housing now is far higher than it was in the 1970s before Thatchers reforms introduced the age of ordinary individuals becoming BTL landlords.

Sadly since about 2000 or so there have been changes to the rental and tax rules that make being a BTL LL much less attractive. This led "good" landlords to sell up, to be replaced by more aggressive and hard-nosed landlords.

The law of unintended consequences implies that efforts to "protect" tenants usually end up harming them.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579308

Postby Mike4 » March 29th, 2023, 2:12 pm

dealtn wrote:
scotview wrote:If the supply of housing isn't growing but the population is, won't the housing market only go in one direction ?


Yes (in the long term). But it isn't the case as you describe.


Which bit?

Do you hold that the population isn't rising? (In another thread it was claimed last year we had net immigration of 500,000 people.)

Or are you holding that house prices can move in either direction? (Going down at the moment, but that will probably reverse once interest rates stabilise, given pressure from both wage inflation and demand inflation.)

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579335

Postby dealtn » March 29th, 2023, 3:26 pm

Mike4 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
Yes (in the long term). But it isn't the case as you describe.


Which bit?

Do you hold that the population isn't rising? (In another thread it was claimed last year we had net immigration of 500,000 people.)

Or are you holding that house prices can move in either direction? (Going down at the moment, but that will probably reverse once interest rates stabilise, given pressure from both wage inflation and demand inflation.)


How about literally the first bit (any reason you chose to omit that in your possibles?). The (claim that) supply of housing isn't growing.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/housing-supply-net-additional-dwellings-england-2021-to-2022/housing-supply-net-additional-dwellings-england-2021-to-2022#:~:text=Annual%20housing%20supply%20in%20England,%25%20increase%20on%202020%2D21.&text=780%20other%20gains%20(caravans%2C%20house,offset%20by%205%2C680%20demolitions.

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579374

Postby Mike4 » March 29th, 2023, 5:01 pm

dealtn wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Which bit?

Do you hold that the population isn't rising? (In another thread it was claimed last year we had net immigration of 500,000 people.)

Or are you holding that house prices can move in either direction? (Going down at the moment, but that will probably reverse once interest rates stabilise, given pressure from both wage inflation and demand inflation.)


How about literally the first bit (any reason you chose to omit that in your possibles?). The (claim that) supply of housing isn't growing.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/housing-supply-net-additional-dwellings-england-2021-to-2022/housing-supply-net-additional-dwellings-england-2021-to-2022#:~:text=Annual%20housing%20supply%20in%20England,%25%20increase%20on%202020%2D21.&text=780%20other%20gains%20(caravans%2C%20house,offset%20by%205%2C680%20demolitions.


I thought it was taken as read that house building was way behind demand. The media has been full of it for years.

But it appears not from your link. The growth in housebuilding seems to exceed the (probable) growth in the formation of new households, assuming two people per new household. So all this about us not building enough new homes is tosh, eh?

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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579412

Postby TUK020 » March 29th, 2023, 7:00 pm


Nimrod103
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Re: Collapse of the UK housing market

#579413

Postby Nimrod103 » March 29th, 2023, 7:14 pm

Mike4 wrote:


I thought it was taken as read that house building was way behind demand. The media has been full of it for years.

But it appears not from your link. The growth in housebuilding seems to exceed the (probable) growth in the formation of new households, assuming two people per new household. So all this about us not building enough new homes is tosh, eh?


But if you assume only one person per household, the demand is twice as large. In my town most of the new dwellings being built are one bedroom flats.


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