The Lemon Fool

Meanwhile, over in Germany...

Germany sinks into recession – as UK avoids one -

Soaring energy prices pushed Germany into recession this winter, fresh data shows, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz ruling out the possibility earlier this year.

Europe’s biggest economy shrank 0.3pc in the first three months of 2023, following a contraction of 0.5pc at the end of last year.

This makes Germany the only economy in the G7 to suffer a technical recession amid the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

https://archive.ph/fYklS

The IMF had forecast Germany's economy to grow by 0.1%, whilst this morning's figures actually show it shrinking by -0.3% in Q1.

They'd forecast the UK Q1 economy to shrink by -0.3% in Q1, whereas the recent UK figures came in with it growing by 0.1%.

It seems that the IMF are at least consistent, even if it's for all the wrong reasons...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Someone needs to ask what the IMF is for. It is certainly hopeless as a forecaster and ought to give up that function.

Dod

Dod101 wrote:Someone needs to ask what the IMF is for. It is certainly hopeless as a forecaster and ought to give up that function.

Dod

The IMF monitors the international monetary system and global economic developments to identify risks and recommend policies for growth and financial stability. The Fund also undertakes a regular health check of the economic and financial policies of its 190 member countries.

Alternatively it is a job creation scheme for minor politicians and 2nd rate economists from around the world, with excellent remuneration and expense accounts

It also makes careful investments. It is owed $46 billion by Argentina and $18 billion by Egypt which, I suspect, are not classified as bad debts in their accounts

Dod101 wrote:Someone needs to ask what the IMF is for. It is certainly hopeless as a forecaster and ought to give up that function.

Dod

Forecasting is hard. An accurate forecast is as much due to luck as judgement. Part of my working life was in marketing, and I had to produce sales forecasts every month. A 5-year plan every year. But the final number was not so important; the key thing is that I had to understand the components of the final number, and the risks involved for each component, and then hopefully manage the risks. We thus gained a better understanding of our business.
The process of forecasting is more important than the final number.

--kiloran

I read somewhere that the problem with IMF forecasts is that they take so long to produce and go through so many bureaucratic review stages that by the time they see the light of day the data is woefully out of date and the forecast no longer relevent.

kiloran wrote:

Dod101 wrote:Someone needs to ask what the IMF is for. It is certainly hopeless as a forecaster and ought to give up that function.

Dod

Forecasting is hard. An accurate forecast is as much due to luck as judgement. Part of my working life was in marketing, and I had to produce sales forecasts every month. A 5-year plan every year. But the final number was not so important; the key thing is that I had to understand the components of the final number, and the risks involved for each component, and then hopefully manage the risks. We thus gained a better understanding of our business.
The process of forecasting is more important than the final number.

--kiloran

Forecasts are a trailing indicator. If you are hoping they tell you something about the future you have not understood the process.

GS

GoSeigen wrote:

kiloran wrote:Forecasting is hard. An accurate forecast is as much due to luck as judgement. Part of my working life was in marketing, and I had to produce sales forecasts every month. A 5-year plan every year. But the final number was not so important; the key thing is that I had to understand the components of the final number, and the risks involved for each component, and then hopefully manage the risks. We thus gained a better understanding of our business.
The process of forecasting is more important than the final number.

--kiloran

Forecasts are a trailing indicator. If you are hoping they tell you something about the future you have not understood the process.

GS

It does not bother me one way or the other. I m not trying to run a business these days. At least they are on the pessimistic side so when it turns out to be better than the forecast it I suppose helps to cheer people up.

Dod

GoSeigen wrote:

kiloran wrote:Forecasting is hard. An accurate forecast is as much due to luck as judgement. Part of my working life was in marketing, and I had to produce sales forecasts every month. A 5-year plan every year. But the final number was not so important; the key thing is that I had to understand the components of the final number, and the risks involved for each component, and then hopefully manage the risks. We thus gained a better understanding of our business.
The process of forecasting is more important than the final number.

--kiloran

Forecasts are a trailing indicator. If you are hoping they tell you something about the future you have not understood the process.

GS

Why aren't they called rearcasts in that case

Itsallaguess wrote:Meanwhile, over in Germany...

Germany sinks into recession – as UK avoids one -

Soaring energy prices pushed Germany into recession this winter, fresh data shows, despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz ruling out the possibility earlier this year.

Europe’s biggest economy shrank 0.3pc in the first three months of 2023, following a contraction of 0.5pc at the end of last year.

This makes Germany the only economy in the G7 to suffer a technical recession amid the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

https://archive.ph/fYklS

The IMF had forecast Germany's economy to grow by 0.1%, whilst this morning's figures actually show it shrinking by -0.3% in Q1.

They'd forecast the UK Q1 economy to shrink by -0.3% in Q1, whereas the recent UK figures came in with it growing by 0.1%.

It seems that the IMF are at least consistent, even if it's for all the wrong reasons...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Looks like they are really good with figures but lousy with geography. Maybe put the countries on the header next time.