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Is that it?

including Budgets
hiriskpaul
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Is that it?

#453673

Postby hiriskpaul » October 27th, 2021, 5:52 pm

I am relieved that there does not appear to have been more tax raises than have been previously announced. Fiscal drag due to frozen tax thresholds due to higher inflation forecast, but no additional raids on pensions, ISAs, CGT, VAT or dividends.

Does anyone know when the next budget is due? ie could Sunak come back for more in March?

Hallucigenia
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Re: Is that it?

#453675

Postby Hallucigenia » October 27th, 2021, 6:03 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:Does anyone know when the next budget is due? ie could Sunak come back for more in March?


Technically his only constraint AIUI is that he has to give the OBR 12 weeks notice. There was some talk of delaying today's until the spring so that they would have a better idea of how the economy was recovering from the pandemic. Since he didn't do that, I think you can assume we're back on track for once a year in October, unless they call another pre-Christmas election.

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Re: Is that it?

#453677

Postby Lootman » October 27th, 2021, 6:09 pm

Hallucigenia wrote:
hiriskpaul wrote:Does anyone know when the next budget is due? ie could Sunak come back for more in March?

Technically his only constraint AIUI is that he has to give the OBR 12 weeks notice. There was some talk of delaying today's until the spring so that they would have a better idea of how the economy was recovering from the pandemic. Since he didn't do that, I think you can assume we're back on track for once a year in October, unless they call another pre-Christmas election.

Yes, I seem to recall that this budget was announced in July, so 12 weeks sounds about right.

Of course there was a budget in March 2021 as well, so there is certainly precedent for two budgets a year. And changes can be announced at any time, as we saw with the NIC increase announced last month.

It is interesting to follow the budget discussions in the US, where the negotiations and horse-trading in Congress has been news for weeks now. The process of setting the budget and tinkering with taxes is a very open and public process in the US. Whereas here it is shrouded in secrecy and then, once or twice a year, we have the big reveal. It's all a bit of theatre really.

Like the OP, I am rather hoping that we now know where we stand for 2022-23 as far as capital gains tax goes. That was the one I was worrying about.

hiriskpaul
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Re: Is that it?

#453679

Postby hiriskpaul » October 27th, 2021, 6:21 pm

This seems to be being characterised as a tax and spend budget, but other than the NHS and maybe care (or maybe not) this seems to have been increased tax just to keep up. I suspect most budget increases will go into increased public sector pay and NI.

Hallucigenia
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Re: Is that it?

#453694

Postby Hallucigenia » October 27th, 2021, 7:09 pm

Lootman wrote:Of course there was a budget in March 2021 as well, so there is certainly precedent for two budgets a year.


Except that was the postponed October 2020 budget.

Lootman wrote:It is interesting to follow the budget discussions in the US, where the negotiations and horse-trading in Congress has been news for weeks now. The process of setting the budget and tinkering with taxes is a very open and public process in the US. Whereas here it is shrouded in secrecy and then, once or twice a year, we have the big reveal. It's all a bit of theatre really.


It's very different - in some ways it's great to have such transparency, but it also leads to more porkbarreling in return for favours, and it's kinda weird to see random Congressmen deciding that eg the air force needs another squadron of fighter jets this year.

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Re: Is that it?

#453695

Postby Hallucigenia » October 27th, 2021, 7:11 pm

hiriskpaul wrote:This seems to be being characterised as a tax and spend budget, but other than the NHS and maybe care (or maybe not) this seems to have been increased tax just to keep up. I suspect most budget increases will go into increased public sector pay and NI.


The devil is always in the details that emerge over coming days. Mostly he seems to have found some extra money by making more generous assumptions about growth/recovery - and then spending it in ways that will hopefully generate some useful headlines. But there doesn't seem to be much of a coherent plan overall.


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