Anyone else concerned about the fall in sterling?

[murraypaul]

AIUI the market was expecting 0.75 from Bailey, so is currently very disappointed with him. The fact that today's up and down in the Pound has occurred in the run up to, and the aftermath, of Bailey's non statement suggests to me that the market is currently more affected by what he says. I'm not sure the mini-budget was that big a deal.

To be clear, you don't think the drop in the pound vs the dollar was triggered by the mini-not-a-budget?

[Nimrod103]

AIUI the market was expecting 0.75 from Bailey, so is currently very disappointed with him. The fact that today's up and down in the Pound has occurred in the run up to, and the aftermath, of Bailey's non statement suggests to me that the market is currently more affected by what he says. I'm not sure the mini-budget was that big a deal.

To be clear, you don't think the drop in the pound vs the dollar was triggered by the mini-not-a-budget?

What do I know? Triggered maybe. Underlying cause - read what Matthew Lynn wrote. AIUI most of the mini budget provisions were known already. What wasn't known was the laid back approach of the BoE. One of the committee even proposed a rise of 0.25%! They seem to have a different view of the World from other Central Banks, and that is probably a worrying sign. The US Fed does seem to be on a mission like Volker was, to ensure a US recession, while the BoE seems to be doing everything to avoid a UK one. The Fed will win of course, but whether that is a good thing or not is a different matter.

[tjh290633]

AIUI the market was expecting 0.75 from Bailey, so is currently very disappointed with him. The fact that today's up and down in the Pound has occurred in the run up to, and the aftermath, of Bailey's non statement suggests to me that the market is currently more affected by what he says. I'm not sure the mini-budget was that big a deal.

To be clear, you don't think the drop in the pound vs the dollar was triggered by the mini-not-a-budget?

You only have to look at the disparity between the BofE Base Rate and the Fed's rate to see the reason. Historically our rate has been higher than the Fed's. It is entirely predictable. Inaction by the BofE is the prime reason.

TJH

[servodude]

AIUI the market was expecting 0.75 from Bailey, so is currently very disappointed with him. The fact that today's up and down in the Pound has occurred in the run up to, and the aftermath, of Bailey's non statement suggests to me that the market is currently more affected by what he says. I'm not sure the mini-budget was that big a deal.

To be clear, you don't think the drop in the pound vs the dollar was triggered by the mini-not-a-budget?

You only have to look at the disparity between the BofE Base Rate and the Fed's rate to see the reason. Historically our rate has been higher than the Fed's. It is entirely predictable. Inaction by the BofE is the prime reason.

TJH

Do you really think it's a case of "nothing to see here" rather than the market judging those in charge as a bit wanting?

Hard to blame the BoE for doing their job within their remit
Though how they are meant to deal with suppressing exogenous inflation by making people's mortgages more expensive I'm not really sure... but I expect that those in nos 10&11 are happy there's somewhere else for folks dismay to be directed.

[tjh290633]

You only have to look at the disparity between the BofE Base Rate and the Fed's rate to see the reason. Historically our rate has been higher than the Fed's. It is entirely predictable. Inaction by the BofE is the prime reason.

TJH

Do you really think it's a case of "nothing to see here" rather than the market judging those in charge as a bit wanting?

Hard to blame the BoE for doing their job within their remit
Though how they are meant to deal with suppressing exogenous inflation by making people's mortgages more expensive I'm not really sure... but I expect that those in nos 10&11 are happy there's somewhere else for folks dismay to be directed.

But by not raising the Base Rate to stop the Pound falling against the Us Dollar they are making inflation worst, because the price of oil and other commodities are denominated in US$. This is dereliction of duty by the BofE.

TJH

[Dod101]

You only have to look at the disparity between the BofE Base Rate and the Fed's rate to see the reason. Historically our rate has been higher than the Fed's. It is entirely predictable. Inaction by the BofE is the prime reason.

TJH

Do you really think it's a case of "nothing to see here" rather than the market judging those in charge as a bit wanting?

Hard to blame the BoE for doing their job within their remit
Though how they are meant to deal with suppressing exogenous inflation by making people's mortgages more expensive I'm not really sure... but I expect that those in nos 10&11 are happy there's somewhere else for folks dismay to be directed.

But by not raising the Base Rate to stop the Pound falling against the Us Dollar they are making inflation worst, because the price of oil and other commodities are denominated in US$. This is dereliction of duty by the BofE.

TJH

Are you sure? It might just be a case of throwing good money after bad because I am not sure that it would be wise to try to protect sterling against speculators. Let it find its own level the speculators have their day. Then tackle inflation.

Dod

[tjh290633]

But by not raising the Base Rate to stop the Pound falling against the Us Dollar they are making inflation worst, because the price of oil and other commodities are denominated in US$. This is dereliction of duty by the BofE.

TJH

Are you sure? It might just be a case of throwing good money after bad because I am not sure that it would be wise to try to protect sterling against speculators. Let it find its own level the speculators have their day. Then tackle inflation.

Dod

Am I sure? The Market was waiting for a 1% rise in Base Rate on Monday and nothing happened, except a wishy-washy statement from the BofE.

The speculators are there because the BofE has not done its job.

TJH