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GDP up in November

including Budgets
Arborbridge
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Re: GDP up in November

#561873

Postby Arborbridge » January 16th, 2023, 10:18 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
The point about GDP and filling potholes is that the resources used are withdrawn from some other activity elsewhere, so in general the net effect on GDP is zero. But overall in November there was a very small increase in economic activity, so GDP went up by 0.1%.
The issue with building houses for the unproductive, is that it is the explanation why we don’t feel richer, despite almost continuous rises in GDP for years. As Jeremy Warner in today’s Telegraph says, we are a lot poorer than we thought we were, and the reason is inflation. Inflation is caused by too much demand and too little productivity. We assign too much reward to the unproductive, and unless the UK changes its ways we are all doomed to a poorer future.


Gosh - there are some huge discussions to be had there - way beyond the scope of this thread. Increases in production can also come from innovation and better management - management which includes making it worthwhile for people to work and who are paid vast sume to do so, but aren't doing so effectively.
In a civilised society - which we pretend or aspire to be, those who cannot work or cannot find work are usually given some sort of decent existence. If nothing else, this reflects the fact that since the industrial revolution progress has taken jobs away from some people and caused poverty: welfare is an attempt to rebalance the equation. The view expressed above is potentially (reading between the lines) of the ultra right type and probably isn't well supported - except my Mail or Telegraph readers.

Anyhow, as I say, the whole topic could run to many pages!

stacker512
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Re: GDP up in November

#561881

Postby stacker512 » January 16th, 2023, 10:40 am

Arborbridge wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
The point about GDP and filling potholes is that the resources used are withdrawn from some other activity elsewhere, so in general the net effect on GDP is zero. But overall in November there was a very small increase in economic activity, so GDP went up by 0.1%.
The issue with building houses for the unproductive, is that it is the explanation why we don’t feel richer, despite almost continuous rises in GDP for years. As Jeremy Warner in today’s Telegraph says, we are a lot poorer than we thought we were, and the reason is inflation. Inflation is caused by too much demand and too little productivity. We assign too much reward to the unproductive, and unless the UK changes its ways we are all doomed to a poorer future.


Gosh - there are some huge discussions to be had there - way beyond the scope of this thread. Increases in production can also come from innovation and better management - management which includes making it worthwhile for people to work and who are paid vast sume to do so, but aren't doing so effectively.
In a civilised society - which we pretend or aspire to be, those who cannot work or cannot find work are usually given some sort of decent existence. If nothing else, this reflects the fact that since the industrial revolution progress has taken jobs away from some people and caused poverty: welfare is an attempt to rebalance the equation. The view expressed above is potentially (reading between the lines) of the ultra right type and probably isn't well supported - except my Mail or Telegraph readers.


The way that I had interpreted both of your posts is that:
- if one is unable to work / cannot find work, then Arb's argument makes sense.
- if one is unwilling to work (e.g. due to laziness) and has houses built for them (i.e. expecting others to provide for them), then Nimrod's argument makes sense.

I find my views to be a mixture of both.

Arborbridge
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Re: GDP up in November

#561960

Postby Arborbridge » January 16th, 2023, 1:21 pm

stacker512 wrote:
Arborbridge wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
The point about GDP and filling potholes is that the resources used are withdrawn from some other activity elsewhere, so in general the net effect on GDP is zero. But overall in November there was a very small increase in economic activity, so GDP went up by 0.1%.
The issue with building houses for the unproductive, is that it is the explanation why we don’t feel richer, despite almost continuous rises in GDP for years. As Jeremy Warner in today’s Telegraph says, we are a lot poorer than we thought we were, and the reason is inflation. Inflation is caused by too much demand and too little productivity. We assign too much reward to the unproductive, and unless the UK changes its ways we are all doomed to a poorer future.


Gosh - there are some huge discussions to be had there - way beyond the scope of this thread. Increases in production can also come from innovation and better management - management which includes making it worthwhile for people to work and who are paid vast sume to do so, but aren't doing so effectively.
In a civilised society - which we pretend or aspire to be, those who cannot work or cannot find work are usually given some sort of decent existence. If nothing else, this reflects the fact that since the industrial revolution progress has taken jobs away from some people and caused poverty: welfare is an attempt to rebalance the equation. The view expressed above is potentially (reading between the lines) of the ultra right type and probably isn't well supported - except my Mail or Telegraph readers.


The way that I had interpreted both of your posts is that:
- if one is unable to work / cannot find work, then Arb's argument makes sense.
- if one is unwilling to work (e.g. due to laziness) and has houses built for them (i.e. expecting others to provide for them), then Nimrod's argument makes sense.

I find my views to be a mixture of both.


AAMOI, does anyone have houses built specifically for them when they are unwilling to work?
I doubt it: ask hundreds of rough sleepers in London and around Britain. I'm sure my grandchildren would be interested to know how to get on that particular gravy train, even if they do work.

SPURLEY
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Re: GDP up in November

#561983

Postby SPURLEY » January 16th, 2023, 2:03 pm

After working as a manual / CNC machinist for 30 / 40 years I came to a conclusion 20 odd years ago -- Too much is expected from Too few people and not enough from Too many . Those who do the work are put on and expected to do more and those who do little or no work are not expected to do anything ., but everybody is treated the same . I used to get my work done in 40 hours , but the idle did not , but were rewarded with overtime to get the same work out as me . So glad I finished work .

vand
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Re: GDP up in November

#562082

Postby vand » January 16th, 2023, 8:00 pm

Just think how much more up it would have been if we didn't lose a million work days to national strikes.

Tedx
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Re: GDP up in November

#562169

Postby Tedx » January 17th, 2023, 10:44 am

(Bloomberg) -- The UK has become the third-most important country in the world for chief executives trying to expand their businesses, according to a prominent survey, the first time it has broken into the top three.

It goes on to say:

“CEOs don’t expand and invest on a whim — they’re choosing the UK as that’s where they expect to see returns,” said Kevin Ellis, PWC’s chairman and senior partner in the UK.

“That choice will be based on sector strengths in areas like AI and biotech, alongside our people-first, business-friendly environment.”


British bosses are also more confident than average for their companies’ revenue prospects. Nearly half, 48%, said they were very or extremely confident about sales prospects for the next year, compared to 42% of global chief executives.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-jumps-in ... -1.1871011

Itsallaguess
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Re: GDP up in November

#565946

Postby Itsallaguess » February 3rd, 2023, 6:40 am

‏‏‎ ‎
A couple of interesting charts came out of yesterdays Bank of England meeting, where not only have the BoE positively revised their estimates of UK peak-to-trough GDP fall, from around -3% to around -1%, but they also showed how their current GDP projection compares to some previous UK recessions in 1980, 1990, and the financial crash of 2008 -

Revision of Bank of England UK GDP forecast -

Image

Source - https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1621135756268896265?s=20



Comparison of current UK recession projection against previous UK recessions -

Image

Source - https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1621125368810987520?s=20

Given the above charts, and when set against the armageddon-like pitch from large swathes of UK media sources, are we at the point where we need to ask if things are currently being hugely overblown, perhaps, and especially if, as the Bank of England also suggested yesterday (https://tinyurl.com/2xubeumb), that the current inflationary spike may already have peaked?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Tedx
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Re: GDP up in November

#565951

Postby Tedx » February 3rd, 2023, 7:46 am

I cancelled my Bloomberg subscription recently.

Every single headline about the UK contained words like 'bleak', "gloom' and of course the current No.1, 'crisis'

Itsallaguess
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Re: GDP up in November

#565957

Postby Itsallaguess » February 3rd, 2023, 8:27 am

Tedx wrote:
I cancelled my Bloomberg subscription recently.

Every single headline about the UK contained words like 'bleak', "gloom' and of course the current No.1, 'crisis'


I'm not sure how surprising the two charts I've posted above might be to the broad population, but I hope it's fair to say that the BoE GDP forecast improvement and the relative shallowness of their current recessionary forecasts have been conspicuous by their absence in the major UK news channels.

I would have to ask though, if that would have been the case if both charts had been reversed, and the BoE had downgraded their recent GDP forecasts, and the forecast depth of the current recessionary issues were to have been much greater when compared with previous recessions.

I think it would be fair to say that if that had been the case, the UK media's approach in reporting this particular recent news would have been starkly different to the one they seem to have taken with the current BoE data and their upgraded assessment of it, and there comes a point where we have to seriously question why that is the case...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Itsallaguess
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Re: GDP up in November

#566086

Postby Itsallaguess » February 3rd, 2023, 4:41 pm

SebsCat wrote:
The FTSE 100 closing high is 7877.45 set on 22/05/2018.


Finally broken today with a new closing high of 7,901.80 -

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64517179

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Adamski
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Re: GDP up in November

#574538

Postby Adamski » March 10th, 2023, 12:57 pm

Gdp up 0.3% in month of Jan. Where is the recession?

The long predicted recession still not arrived!

Good news buried by BBC and Sky. I guess doesn't fit the doom and gloom agenda

OK some one off factors there. But yet again imf boe predictions all wrong, under estimating the resilience of the UK economy.

Still think UK stock market undervalued and think good time to tip portfolio to UK stocks.

pje16
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Re: GDP up in November

#574540

Postby pje16 » March 10th, 2023, 1:02 pm



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