Bank of England admits it was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy

[Itsallaguess]

‎
Bank of England admits it was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy -

The Bank of England has upgraded its growth forecasts by the biggest amount on record as it scrapped its prediction of recession this year.

Policymakers admitted growth will be “materially stronger” than it previously thought, with the economy now expected to expand over the next two years rather than shrink.

The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic size by the end of this year as Threadneedle Street rowed back on a prediction just three months ago that the UK economy will shrink for more than a year.

https://tinyurl.com/2l43uf36

Relevant comments courtesy of The Ruttles - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgttPt_1IG0

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Mike4]

Surely we need the BoE to engineer a recession, or inflation will carry on apace.

They can't face both ways, can they?

[scotview]

‎

Policymakers admitted growth will be “materially stronger” than it previously thought, with the economy now expected to expand over the next two years rather than shrink.


Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Do we know what will cause the upward swing in GDP.

Is there an assumption that we will have another very mild winter in Europe ?

Shocked and stunned !!

[NeilW]

Do we know what will cause the upward swing in GDP.

[Mike4]

Do we know what will cause the upward swing in GDP.

Wishful thinking and hopes of a knighthood one would imagine, given they way some optimistic and positive forecasts might help Sunak with the looming GE.

Cynical? Moi?

[Dod101]

‎

Policymakers admitted growth will be “materially stronger” than it previously thought, with the economy now expected to expand over the next two years rather than shrink.


Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Do we know what will cause the upward swing in GDP.

Is there an assumption that we will have another very mild winter in Europe ?

Shocked and stunned !!

Can we not just assume that the BoE got the recession thing wrong and accept that they may possibly be correct this time?

Dod

[Mike4]

Can we not just assume that the BoE got the recession thing wrong and accept that they may possibly be correct this time?

Dod

Its a game of chance, you mean?

[Tedx]

Can we not just assume that the BoE got the recession thing wrong and accept that they may possibly be correct this time?

Dod

Its a game of chance, you mean?

Spot on. To slightly misquote a line from 'The Wolf of Wall Street'

Nobody knows if an economy is going to go up, down, sideways or in f******* circles, least of all economists/bankers/finance professionals, right? It’s all a fugayzi, you know what a fugayzi is?”

“Fugayzi. It’s fake.”

"Fugayzi, fugazi. It's a whazy. It's a woozie. It's fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It is no matter. It's not on the elemental chart. It's not f****** real.”

Or the Southpark episode '"Margaritaville"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margarita ... South_Park)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OevEml84BI

[Dod101]

Can we not just assume that the BoE got the recession thing wrong and accept that they may possibly be correct this time?

Dod

Its a game of chance, you mean?

Looks like that.

Dod

[GoSeigen]

‎
Bank of England admits it was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy -

LOL

GS

[funduffer]

Can we not just assume that the BoE got the recession thing wrong and accept that they may possibly be correct this time?

Dod

Its a game of chance, you mean?

As an engineer, I think understanding tolerances is essential.

The last few months GDP changes have been:

Mar -0.3%
Feb +0.1%
Jan +0.3%
Dec -0.5%
Nov +0.1%
Oct +0.5%
Sep -0.6%

Average: -0.05%

UK GDP growth is essentially 0% +/- a small tolerance.

So recession, or not, doesn't mean anything. The number and the tolerance are what matters.

FD

[scotview]

Does the BoE produce back-up documentation to show how the current/forecast month's GDP figure is comprised and how it has gone from minus to plus on this occasion?

Or do we just get a high level statement and accept it on face value ?

[scotview]

Is this it, the quarterly report ?

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetar ... 3/may-2023

[1nvest]

Does the BoE produce back-up documentation to show how the current/forecast month's GDP figure is comprised and how it has gone from minus to plus on this occasion?

Or do we just get a high level statement and accept it on face value ?

Perhaps driven by political pressures

Typically when one picks their own objectives realistic/easily achieved options tend to be picked/set. Failing on the majority of those

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prim ... s-for-2023


... and the tendency is to resort to cooking the books/revising measures in order to turn failure around to claimed objective(s) as having been achieved.

40 new hospitals for instance, where the reality was 40 old hospitals being given a lick of paint and then being claimed as being as good as new.

Doubling up of the NHS budget, in return for poorer service/longer waiting lists etc. So in a panic like manner suggest that school leavers might instead go straight in as GP's ... etc.

When you set taxation policies such a where grads enter into the equivalent of high rate tax banding upon earning more than the minimum wage, increase taxes and repeatedly change the rules such that it pushes existing capital away, discourages inward investment, let UK sourced energy be sold to UK residents at whatever the global market rate defines, that in turn drives high inflation that might otherwise have been avoided ... then such dumb/poor management of UK plc results in the management having to cook the books in an attempt to hide their incompetence.

[TUK020]

Its a game of chance, you mean?

As an engineer, I think understanding tolerances is essential.

The last few months GDP changes have been:

Mar -0.3%
Feb +0.1%
Jan +0.3%
Dec -0.5%
Nov +0.1%
Oct +0.5%
Sep -0.6%

Average: -0.05%

UK GDP growth is essentially 0% +/- a small tolerance.

So recession, or not, doesn't mean anything. The number and the tolerance are what matters.

FD

And the margin of error on each of the data points?
The signal is buried in noise.

[Mike4]

As an engineer, I think understanding tolerances is essential.

The last few months GDP changes have been:

Mar -0.3%
Feb +0.1%
Jan +0.3%
Dec -0.5%
Nov +0.1%
Oct +0.5%
Sep -0.6%

Average: -0.05%

UK GDP growth is essentially 0% +/- a small tolerance.

So recession, or not, doesn't mean anything. The number and the tolerance are what matters.

FD

And the margin of error on each of the data points?
The signal is buried in noise.

Quite. And as an engineer myself, the figures in the list are not tolerances in my book.

An engineering tolerance is the amount up or down by which a stated dimension may vary, e.g. one inch plus or minus three thousandths of an inch. (1" +/- 0.003")

[Lanark]

‎
Bank of England admits it was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy -

So recession it is then

[Tedx]

Well if bond prices are anything to go by, the UK's 10 year gilt yield is approaching that of Italy's and only a half percent from Greece's and Baily sells billions of pounds of QE bonds into the market when all others are just letting there QE bonds run off.

[Mike4]

Well if bond prices are anything to go by, the UK's 10 year gilt yield is approaching that of Italy's and only a half percent from Greece's and Baily sells billions of pounds of QE bonds into the market when all others are just letting there QE bonds run off.

He has always come across in radio interviews to me as supremely arrogant and over-confident. Not someone who looks around and learns.

[Tedx]

Well if bond prices are anything to go by, the UK's 10 year gilt yield is approaching that of Italy's and only a half percent from Greece's and Baily sells billions of pounds of QE bonds into the market when all others are just letting there QE bonds run off.

He has always come across in radio interviews to me as supremely arrogant and over-confident. Not someone who looks around and learns.

Well it doesn't really affect him does it? £600k a year = I'm alright jack. And 4% interest on his savings too - risk free!

.............Meanwhile a million fixed rate mortgages are due to be refinanced this year.


Bond yields are nearly at the level of the Truss/Kwartang government......