It is time for the UK to think like an emerging market

[scrumpyjack]

Maybe join the USA?
We could be 3 or 4 states?

[Lootman]

Maybe join the USA?
We could be 3 or 4 states?

I would take being the 51st+ state a lot more than I could stomach rejoining the sclerotic EU.

England alone would become the largest state - with more weight and votes than California.

Farage and Boris for the U.S. Senate? Truss for President?

[NotSure]

Maybe join the USA?
We could be 3 or 4 states?

I would take being the 51st+ state a lot more than I could stomach rejoining the sclerotic EU.

England alone would become the largest state - with more weight and votes than California.

Farage and Boris for the U.S. Senate? Truss for President?

So you see the advantage to being a major voice, albeit within a globally powerful collective?

Shame we are now rule takers instead of rule makers

[scrumpyjack]

Quite agree, Lootman, but our dodgy politicians look like paragons compared with most of the US ones !

[Gerry557]

Some would argue for the other way round and the States come back to us.

I'm sure we could help with some of the gun laws.

[Lootman]

Quite agree, Lootman, but our dodgy politicians look like paragons compared with most of the US ones !

The Republicans would never go for it as they would see the 1/2/3/4 countries of the UK as reliably voting Dem and that would be 2 to 8 more lefty Senators, plus a big influence on White House races.

Same reason they block statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington DC.

[XFool]

Maybe join the USA?
We could be 3 or 4 states?

I would take being the 51st+ state a lot more than I could stomach rejoining the sclerotic EU.

England alone would become the largest state - with more weight and votes than California.

Farage and Boris for the U.S. Senate? Truss for President?

Did you eat some cheese before bed last night?

[spasmodicus]

England alone would become the largest state - with more weight and votes than California.]

well yes, the UK has a larger population than Texas, but:

Fact check
United Kingdom is approximately 243,610 sq km, while Texas is approximately 678,052 sq km, making Texas 178% larger than United Kingdom. Meanwhile, the population of United Kingdom is ~67.8 million people (42.6 million fewer people live in Texas).

It also depends on whether you place more value on quality over quantity. Judging by some of the Texans that I have seen in food halls (ugh) in Houston, they may well have more total weight (avoirdupois) than us Brits. But in terms of intellectual capacity, both countries (for that is what Texas wishes itself to be) populations probably contain too high a proportion of non sentient human biomass to reason their way out of their problems.

S

[1nvest]

Interesting article in the FT, two days ago.

Former member of the MPC suggest that we should adopt IMF like policies gently and sooner, rather than having them imposed with brute force later.

https://www.ft.com/content/4cf73b89-51e ... f08ecaee5c

It's behind a paywal. Google the subject title to read it at cam.ac.uk

Basically advocates disincentive for being on benefits rather than working; pay increase in short term for NHS & emergency workers, paid for by CGT and "property". INvest publicly in energy grid, trains and critical infrastructure, and cut subsidies elswewhere. No state aid for mortgagors, any help should be from the mortgagee. Liberalise planning to promote construction, not "help to buy". More immigration. More monetary policy tightening.

Parliament as-is, isn't fit for purpose, can't even manage a new PM appointment/election in a efficient and appropriate manner. Parliament gifted away British sovereignty, and became more of a beauty pageant/soap TV show, more often costing the country, a liability rather than a asset.

Sovereignty, fiat currency, is based upon the economic output and military strength of the government that produces the fiat currency. As-is the UK has a long way to re-establish both. The UK does not need even more people, it already has a abundance of that 'commodity'. It needs solid/sound mid/longer term planning/management, a Parliament that adds value rather than being a liability. Not a government that cannot even defend the realm from a fleet of dinghies.

[ursaminortaur]

Maybe join the USA?
We could be 3 or 4 states?

I would take being the 51st+ state a lot more than I could stomach rejoining the sclerotic EU.

England alone would become the largest state - with more weight and votes than California.

Farage and Boris for the U.S. Senate? Truss for President?

I'd have thought it would be a difficult sell to the UK public in a referendum. Become part of the federal USA which you can never leave when one argument against the EU, which you could leave, was that eventually it might become a federal United States of Europe. As you point out England's large population would give it unparalleled power as a state hence I can't see the other states accepting that - in a sense it would undo the American Revolution. Thus it would be more likely that we would end up more like Puerto Rico which would complete the turn around of the American Revolution by reducing UK citizens to being USA citizens who have no say in government.

[TUK020]

Is it time to think like an emerging market?

We are already there. Try driving somewhere, and think about the state of potholes in the roads. Makes Nairobi seem plush....

[enjaminef]

Can someone explain in more detail how it can help?

[tjh290633]

Can someone explain in more detail how it can help?

The short answer is that it can't.

TJH

[servodude]

Can someone explain in more detail how it can help?

The short answer is that it can't.

TJH

Can you address which points in the FT article you disagree with? (good to see this steering back on topic )

I actually thought it made quite a bit of sense - albeit with the caveat I made earlier about a low interest period being preferable for investment (but that horse has bolted - or is bolting at the moment)

[tjh290633]

The short answer is that it can't.

TJH

Can you address which points in the FT article you disagree with? (good to see this steering back on topic )

I actually thought it made quite a bit of sense - albeit with the caveat I made earlier about a low interest period being preferable for investment (but that horse has bolted - or is bolting at the moment)

I have looked at his 5 points, but I don't see those as relating to an emerging market. They do relate to current ills, like the abysmal performance of the Bank of England. Reduction of income and corporate taxes is essential to stimulate activity. No problem with reform of the labour market. Wholesale reform of the NHS has to happen, but we need a courageous government with a clear 5 year mandate to tackle it. The likely governments never will and it will be put in the "Too difficult" category.

But these are nothing to do with thinking like an emerging market, they are correcting failures of the last 25 years, since the end of the Thatcher era.

TJH

[Nimrod103]

https://www.ft.com/content/4cf73b89-51e ... f08ecaee5c

It's behind a paywal. Google the subject title to read it at cam.ac.uk

Bit more guidance needed on how to do this. All I get is a load of stuff about Cambridge University.

[ursaminortaur]

https://www.ft.com/content/4cf73b89-51e ... f08ecaee5c

It's behind a paywal. Google the subject title to read it at cam.ac.uk

Bit more guidance needed on how to do this. All I get is a load of stuff about Cambridge University.

https://www.google.com/search?q=It+is+time+for+the+UK+to+think+like+an+emerging+market

And then click on the FT link displayed ( which for me at least is the top link)

[Nimrod103]

Bit more guidance needed on how to do this. All I get is a load of stuff about Cambridge University.

https://www.google.com/search?q=It+is+time+for+the+UK+to+think+like+an+emerging+market

And then click on the FT link displayed ( which for me at least is the top link)

Thanks I finally got a copy.

I don't have time to go through every point in the article, but Number 4 stood out:

Fourth, actually carry through the obvious labour supply reforms to address the clear mismatch between available workers and jobs, and the decline in labour force participation. As UK economists have pointed out, the meanness of benefits mean there is a terrible disincentive to be unemployed.

So Posen thinks unemployment benefits should be more generous? And he presumably thinks that will lead to more participation in the labour force? I don't think that makes sense.

[1nvest]

Markets are, not unsurprisingly, jittery ahead of next weeks major BRIC's meeting. President Xi Jinping to be in attendance at the Aug 21-24 meet (well there's a surprise (not)). Apparently even France is looking to sign up to joining (along with Mexico, Turkey ...etc.), a collective major proportion of the global population and resources. A rush to be on the 'winning team'. "Mutual benefit" offerings are suggested to include being able to sell for more, buy for less if members dump US dollars and instead trade in Yuan. Might not be bad only for the US, but the EU also if France opts to leave the EU/Euro. Germany has been loading up on gold. The UK as ever, "winging it" (I'm pretty sure whatever high inflation the US might endure due to widespread dumping of US dollars, the UK will be able to top that).

Stock indexes that tend to have single stocks rising to 10% weighting, combinations of heavily weighted stocks in the same sector perhaps accounting for 33% of the index or more ... periodically endure concentration risk declines. Reflect that onto a world stock tracker fund and the US is ... a pretty heavy single factor concentration risk. 66% share of market cap, 3% of the global population. A problem there however is that the US is the heart of capitalism, without which the tendency is more towards state control/ownership, where capitalist markets are tolerated, periodically pruned/raided.

Interesting times.

Oh and by the way, free movement of people in the opposite direction are far far less tolerated. As are cosmopolitan tendencies.

[AWOL]

Can you address which points in the FT article you disagree with? (good to see this steering back on topic )

I actually thought it made quite a bit of sense - albeit with the caveat I made earlier about a low interest period being preferable for investment (but that horse has bolted - or is bolting at the moment)

I have looked at his 5 points, but I don't see those as relating to an emerging market. They do relate to current ills, like the abysmal performance of the Bank of England. Reduction of income and corporate taxes is essential to stimulate activity. No problem with reform of the labour market. Wholesale reform of the NHS has to happen, but we need a courageous government with a clear 5 year mandate to tackle it. The likely governments never will and it will be put in the "Too difficult" category.

But these are nothing to do with thinking like an emerging market, they are correcting failures of the last 25 years, since the end of the Thatcher era.

TJH

The worst of the rot set in around 2010 with the Osbourne/Cameron era when they backed austerity which turned out to be the wrong horse and they promised to protect NHS spending but they didn't actually do that, the population of the UK continued to expand through increased immigration, and then a few years down the road when the system was stretched to the limits we had a pandemic which proved that there was no capacity for absorbing extra work. It will take a lot longer than 5 years to fix the backlog and a lot of investment in a country that expects top not health at budget prices.

Here's some excellent data for food for thought... https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... 2019-08-29