The Lemon Fool

That's what Jim Rogers is saying (http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-roge ... ?r=UK&IR=T) and, with a recent flurry of '10-years-on' newspaper articles about the financial crash, I note that many commenters are saying the same - that we haven't solved the problems and next time it is going to be worse. Personally, I think we are overdue a large correction but as for timing and the trigger, who knows?

What do others think?

Big crash, small crash? (or are we already in a slow-motion collapse via government debt?) Sooner or later?

If so, are you changing your investment strategies accordingly?

N.

(PS have I missed a thread elsewhere on TLF where this has been discussed?)

For the UK, yes. Post Brexit collapse.

Stonge wrote:For the UK, yes. Post Brexit collapse.

Or will Brexit get us off the hook if the EU economies topple first?

From AEP's latest article in the Telegraph:

"Just when we thought the markets were becalmed, with equity volatility at 90-year lows, the ‘August Curse’ threatens to strike again."

"Today, the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is around 30. This is the highest in 150 years of usable data, excluding the two anomalies of 1929 and the dotcom bubble."

I'm detached from the markets, but something doesn't feel right.

I fear that I have not yet followed the link.
However in my adult lifetime I have seen
Black Wednsday
The Dot com/tec crash
The finanacial crash

I'm also aware of others from when I was a child.

Yes I do think that there will be another. Yes I think that when it happens it will be the worst seen, as will the one ofter that add infinitum.

I don't think that I can predict when it will happen so I'm staying invested, hoping to ride it out.

Jim Rogers is well-known for predicting market crashes, he does it almost every year. I'd be more concerned if he wasn't predicting doom and gloom.

For example in 2010 he predicted a recession in 2012

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... -2012.html

And massive food shortages in 2010

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-roge ... 010-1?IR=T

Then again economists have predited fifteen of the last three recessions. Predict often, trumpet your successes and ignore your failures.

Is the FTSE100 yielding 3.7% overvalued compared to the 10-year Gilt yield of 1.1%? Bear in mind that we're in a time where we're looking longer-term at inflation tending to be around 2% per year? I'd argue not, if anything it's gilts that are overvalued.

Re. Brexit. NEWSFLASH: The Brexit crash has already happened. See the considerable fall of sterling in the foreign exchange markets since the Brexit vote. Most of the rest of the Brexit effects will have already been priced in (e.g. share prices of some companies whose business is predominately UK-based). That's what financial markets do, they are discounting mechanisms which price in the future (well, at least known knowns and known unknowns (how accurate you see this as being depends upon your view of efficient market theory).

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dis ... hanism.asp

FredBloggs wrote:
I predict - The crash will arrive just at the point it seems we are soaring into the clear blue yonder, with ne'er a care in the world. THAT is when to REALLY expect a crash. Are we soaring into the clear blue yonder? I don't know, does anyone?

(I recently posted a graphic illustrating this but it was removed by the moderators. Search Google images for "this is the top" if you're interested).

If there was an issue with you inserting 'in-post images' that may be copyright, then in that particular case you'd probably be best simply posting a link to it.

I think this is the 'this is the top' chart you previously linked to - I hadn't seen it before and thought it was quite witty -

http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2 ... 15c588dfa6

Link to the main page showing the above image -

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... 2016-07-21

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I don't know when the next crash will occur. I do know, after a 8 year bull market it will be sooner rather than later. As a precaution I have banked my juicy gains and invested equal sums in Personal Assets and Capital Gearing and Seneca Global Income and Growth. I share their world view. My wife's collection of I&G ITs remains 90% invested, as she thinks the risk is to capital values rather than dividends.

We shall see...

FredBloggs wrote:Thank you, it is all over the web as indeed, it is very witty as well as making a serious point. It is so widespread, I have no clue where the original copyright version may be. Hence why I didn't link to it again. It seems though, you did indeed find the original version. Thanks.

Edited to say - This IS the original graphic!
https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_56078448.?1465219986

It is all over the web but most versions I've seen still include © StockCharts.com, as do the last two versions linked to.

"The Worst Crash In Our Lifetime is Coming"

Yes. Definitely. Without a single doubt whatsoever I am certain the worst crash in our lifetime is coming.

Now, whether the worst crash in our lifetime is coming in our lifetime is where I really have no idea at all...

1nv35t wrote:Given the EU prefers no deal (are insisting we agree to a payment before they'll even discuss terms), hard Brexit is the more likely ... NI borders, no deals of EU in UK nor UK in EU ... etc. The UK might ravage Ireland to add to the EU's woes and combined with barriers to German imports along with some assistance from the US could pull the trigger on the EU. Clearly we should consider the EU a enemy ... not a friend.

So, in your opinion, we should consider our immediate continental neighbours and trading partners as "an enemy"?

To what degree? More, or less, "an enemy" than Russia? Than China? Than North Korea? Should we be prepared to go to war with them? How helpful is all this? How promising a world view is being laid out? What future beckons?

You really do sound as if you are eager to bring on "The Worst Crash In our Lifetime".

The French or the Spanish?

Old foes are best, after all.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=Is+Spain+within+range+of+Trident+if+they+try+to+take+Gibraltar+back%3F&gws_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=LTepWaaZI5zmgAaZ4oOgBg

The Spanish... If they give us any trouble we can blockade Porto Bello to stop their galleons leaving. I'm sure the reliable Admiral Wager can deal with any problems with Gibraltar

Not Spain.
When some years ago the Telegraph ran a competition for 50 words on 'Englishness', it was won by Anthony Richards whose contribution started:

He views the Channel as a trench
Laughs at Germans, hates the French

Whatever problems the GBP has at present, the Euro's current renaissance won't last for ever, especially when VAG, BMW and D-Benz - all late to electric car development - realise that the UK won't want large-engined diesels (even sans 'defeat devices') at at exchange-rate-inflated price. So I for one don't foresee a crash, just the EU slowly becoming more and more a sclerotic, lumbering and creaking dinosaur

HG the Duke of Wellington had lots of informed and instructive things* to say about the French, but my posting rights here would be suspended if I re-quoted them. And however energetically M Macron's pushes his vision of the United States of Europe, it will founder on one thing: the French will not switch to speak German.

* and doings: he shared a mistress with Napoleon