Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

The Future Post Brexit

High levels of moderation
Forum rules
no trolling, name calling, no arguments.
Material posted here that is disparaging towards any group on the basis of race, faith, nationality, gender, disability or sexual orientation will be deleted and any poster of such material risks suspension.
redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3909
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 347 times
Been thanked: 579 times

The Future Post Brexit

#102381

Postby redsturgeon » December 7th, 2017, 10:22 am

If we ever get to leave the EU, how confident are people feeling for the future?

The current negotiations have show a singular lack of organisation and ability from the current UK government and the alternative, waiting in the wings doesn't look any better.

We have been outclassed by the EU negotiators, then by Eire, finally by the DUP who should be on our side.

Once we say goodbye to the EU, the whole world awaits us. Does anyone really think that the US with the current focus on America first is going to cut us a good deal and good luck with the Chinese, negotiating with them will be like turning up to a 30 course Chinese banquet with a Greggs pasty.

India might deal with us if we agree easier access for their citizens to the UK...not what many Brexiteers envisaged, I'm sure. Where are these deals going to come from for the future UK as a great trading nation?

The current fiasco has shown that we lack many of the skills necessary to negotiate with the world, perhaps Liam Fox will do better than David Davis though.

I'd like to be more optimistic but I'm struggling.

John

Nimrod103
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1634
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 45 times
Been thanked: 128 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102391

Postby Nimrod103 » December 7th, 2017, 10:48 am

If you beleive that the current events have been choreographed by Remainers in the Civil Service (https://order-order.com/2017/12/07/one- ... qus_thread) then if Brexit is achieved, it will fail because that same Civil Service will undermine it at every opportunity. The Treasury modelling for a post Brexit future is entirely negative, because they have not included any positive inputs from Brexit. You can see what is happening.

beeswax
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1953
Joined: December 20th, 2016, 11:20 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 172 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102404

Postby beeswax » December 7th, 2017, 11:18 am

redsturgeon wrote:If we ever get to leave the EU, how confident are people feeling for the future?

The current negotiations have show a singular lack of organisation and ability from the current UK government and the alternative, waiting in the wings doesn't look any better.

We have been outclassed by the EU negotiators, then by Eire, finally by the DUP who should be on our side.

Once we say goodbye to the EU, the whole world awaits us. Does anyone really think that the US with the current focus on America first is going to cut us a good deal and good luck with the Chinese, negotiating with them will be like turning up to a 30 course Chinese banquet with a Greggs pasty.

India might deal with us if we agree easier access for their citizens to the UK...not what many Brexiteers envisaged, I'm sure. Where are these deals going to come from for the future UK as a great trading nation?

The current fiasco has shown that we lack many of the skills necessary to negotiate with the world, perhaps Liam Fox will do better than David Davis though.

I'd like to be more optimistic but I'm struggling.

John


Hi John,

Well as you all know by now, I am very optimistic when we leave the EU even though there could be a short downside but we have to look beyond the glitches and what can be achieved by self determination, yes and cooperation with the EU because as some of us keep saying, its in their interests as well as ours to do so..But there really is a big world out there and our trade is increasing there and declining with the EU. We can all accept a common trading area, common market call it what you will but we really don't need all the political add ons....

Yes we have been dire in our negotiations but only because the PM and the Cabinet lacked the vision and toughness that was required at the start when we should have said no to their agenda and insisted on trade talks first. That always made sense anyway as most things will flow from that like the NI border etc. But the EU probably couldn't believe how poor we were and are. Its still resolvable by getting back on track but we have to say no to some of their demands. India afaik are not insisting on free movement EU style but more of their skilled people to be able to come here which is what we all want actually. It really is about taking back control even though the cynics think we can't! We will and that is the important thing. If we stayed we wouldn't. Yes it may take a little longer but it will be worth it....all imo obviously.

People will always want to sell and buy things and the the market place today is the whole world, not just a small part called the European Union!

gryffron
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1210
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:00 am
Has thanked: 62 times
Been thanked: 232 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102405

Postby gryffron » December 7th, 2017, 11:22 am

Think Thatcher slashing the loss making nationalised industries in the 80s. When you get rid of the old dead wood, you're left with a big hole. It takes a while for the new healthy growth to fill the gaps. But ultimately, you are much stronger for the pruning.

I do think we're in for a rough few years while we readjust. But ultimately the EU political project is doomed. The nations involved are too different to be bound together. We'll look back and be so grateful we got out when we did.

Gryff

redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3909
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 347 times
Been thanked: 579 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102411

Postby redsturgeon » December 7th, 2017, 11:39 am

I admire your optimism Mike and I really do wish I could share it.

Leaving aside the US and China and the EU let's say we double exports to India, Canada, Australia and New Zealand...those countries represent 3.9% of our current exports vs around 45% that we currently export to the EU.

So if we lose 10% of our EU business, then doubling exports to India, Canada, Australia and NZ will not replace it.

Africa is a growth area, we currently export £11bn to the whole of Africa vs £224bn to Europe. Let add in South America, that's another £4.6bn.I think we need better negotiators than we currently employ to grow those any significant amount to replace even a small percentage loss of business to the EU.

But as I am now hearing, it is all about taking back control, so our parliament is sovereign...looks like giving the current crowd in the HoC more control is not the most sensible of moves on present evidence. Seems the rest of the EU have representatives who are better able to look after their constituents than we have.

Then there's the taking back control of out borders...best not go there.

Can someone remind me why this was such a good idea?

John

redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3909
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 347 times
Been thanked: 579 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102412

Postby redsturgeon » December 7th, 2017, 11:40 am

gryffron wrote:. We'll look back and be so grateful we got out when we did.

Gryff


I hope so Gryff, I really do.

John

Charlottesquare
Lemon Slice
Posts: 496
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:22 pm
Has thanked: 4 times
Been thanked: 48 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102416

Postby Charlottesquare » December 7th, 2017, 11:48 am

Will, I think in light of recent events we can safely say that in the short term,

"'The future's bright, the future's Orange"

Nimrod103
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1634
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 45 times
Been thanked: 128 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102417

Postby Nimrod103 » December 7th, 2017, 11:49 am

redsturgeon wrote:
gryffron wrote:. We'll look back and be so grateful we got out when we did.

Gryff


I hope so Gryff, I really do.

John


It is worth reading Dr Doom (Ambrose Evan Pritchard) in today's DT (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... al-empire/). I always thought he was a Remainer - if so he is changing his tune.

beeswax
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1953
Joined: December 20th, 2016, 11:20 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 172 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102418

Postby beeswax » December 7th, 2017, 11:52 am

redsturgeon wrote:I admire your optimism Mike and I really do wish I could share it.

Leaving aside the US and China and the EU let's say we double exports to India, Canada, Australia and New Zealand...those countries represent 3.9% of our current exports vs around 45% that we currently export to the EU.

So if we lose 10% of our EU business, then doubling exports to India, Canada, Australia and NZ will not replace it.

Africa is a growth area, we currently export £11bn to the whole of Africa vs £224bn to Europe. Let add in South America, that's another £4.6bn.I think we need better negotiators than we currently employ to grow those any significant amount to replace even a small percentage loss of business to the EU.

But as I am now hearing, it is all about taking back control, so our parliament is sovereign...looks like giving the current crowd in the HoC more control is not the most sensible of moves on present evidence. Seems the rest of the EU have representatives who are better able to look after their constituents than we have.

Then there's the taking back control of out borders...best not go there.

Can someone remind me why this was such a good idea?

John


Hi again John,

I admire your pessimism too....;)

Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? I think of it all more simply that eg BMW will want to sell us the same amount of cars or even more, even if there were tariffs added on and so will everyone else on both sides and so I may be too optimistic but I don't think we will lose that much and even if we did, then then it should not be that difficult to make that up from the RoW....

The EU is a political club heading in a direction we don't want to go in and so it was only a matter of time before the choice was made for us. The Commission and the European Parliament and heads of 28 Governments sell nothing only hot air and its business that will dictate the agenda. Its why it won't decrease that much, it may even increase and more especially if expected we end up with a FTA....and in that case we will have our cake and eat it and no more interference, no more free movement and no more them dictating our laws! No more 20bn per year membership fees.... Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.
Last edited by beeswax on December 7th, 2017, 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

SteMiS
Lemon Slice
Posts: 898
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:41 pm
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 117 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102420

Postby SteMiS » December 7th, 2017, 11:57 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
gryffron wrote:. We'll look back and be so grateful we got out when we did.

Gryff

I hope so Gryff, I really do.

John

It is worth reading Dr Doom (Ambrose Evan Pritchard) in today's DT (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... al-empire/). I always thought he was a Remainer - if so he is changing his tune.

Nope...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... thing-els/

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD

Sundance13
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1859
Joined: March 15th, 2017, 1:02 pm
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 60 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102425

Postby Sundance13 » December 7th, 2017, 12:07 pm

beeswax wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I admire your optimism Mike and I really do wish I could share it.

Leaving aside the US and China and the EU let's say we double exports to India, Canada, Australia and New Zealand...those countries represent 3.9% of our current exports vs around 45% that we currently export to the EU.

So if we lose 10% of our EU business, then doubling exports to India, Canada, Australia and NZ will not replace it.

Africa is a growth area, we currently export £11bn to the whole of Africa vs £224bn to Europe. Let add in South America, that's another £4.6bn.I think we need better negotiators than we currently employ to grow those any significant amount to replace even a small percentage loss of business to the EU.

But as I am now hearing, it is all about taking back control, so our parliament is sovereign...looks like giving the current crowd in the HoC more control is not the most sensible of moves on present evidence. Seems the rest of the EU have representatives who are better able to look after their constituents than we have.

Then there's the taking back control of out borders...best not go there.

Can someone remind me why this was such a good idea?

John


Hi again John,

I admire your pessimism too....;)

Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? I think of it all more simply that eg BMW will want to sell us the same amount of cars or even more, even if there were tariffs added on and so will everyone else on both sides and so I may be too optimistic but I don't think we will lose that much and even if we did, then then it should not be that difficult to make that up from the RoW....

The EU is a political club heading in a direction we don't want to go in and so it was only a matter of time before the choice was made for us. The Commission and the European Parliament and heads of 28 Governments sell nothing only hot air and its business that will dictate the agenda. Its why it won't decrease, it may even increase and more especially if expected we end up with a FTA....and in that case we will have our cake and eat it and no more interference, no more free movement and no more them dictating our laws! Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.



Depends on what terms we leave the EU.

If we leave with no deal and on poor terms with the EU, we’ll see a hefty hit economically, definitely a recession probably on a par with 2007-8 but without the rapid rebound. I suspect we’ll struggle to get back to growth after a few years but not close to current levels. I don’t have much confidence in our team to rapidly negotiate beneficial trade deals.

Another lost decade, which happening so soon after the financial crisis will leave us with considerable political and social problems.

If we leave with a CETA deal, not as bad as above but still think we’ll see a recession, followed by sluggish growth for rest of decade.

If May achieves her goal of a CETA+++ deal with significant access for services in the single market, then we’ll be reasonably okay, going forwards I’d be fairly confident we’ll do well.

Ditto if we stay in the single market via EEA.

So it’s all about the end deal. The trouble is Mays plan of relying of equivalence is fatally flawed, so I can’t see her getting the CETA+++ deal.

Hence I’m pessimistic about our future, we’ll survive and eventually the economy will resume growth albeit at lower levels than prior to the referendum. The first 3 Year’s will be the worst, particularly in a no deal scenario.

beeswax
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1953
Joined: December 20th, 2016, 11:20 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 172 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102429

Postby beeswax » December 7th, 2017, 12:16 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
beeswax wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I admire your optimism Mike and I really do wish I could share it.

Leaving aside the US and China and the EU let's say we double exports to India, Canada, Australia and New Zealand...those countries represent 3.9% of our current exports vs around 45% that we currently export to the EU.

So if we lose 10% of our EU business, then doubling exports to India, Canada, Australia and NZ will not replace it.

Africa is a growth area, we currently export £11bn to the whole of Africa vs £224bn to Europe. Let add in South America, that's another £4.6bn.I think we need better negotiators than we currently employ to grow those any significant amount to replace even a small percentage loss of business to the EU.

But as I am now hearing, it is all about taking back control, so our parliament is sovereign...looks like giving the current crowd in the HoC more control is not the most sensible of moves on present evidence. Seems the rest of the EU have representatives who are better able to look after their constituents than we have.

Then there's the taking back control of out borders...best not go there.

Can someone remind me why this was such a good idea?

John


Hi again John,

I admire your pessimism too....;)

Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? I think of it all more simply that eg BMW will want to sell us the same amount of cars or even more, even if there were tariffs added on and so will everyone else on both sides and so I may be too optimistic but I don't think we will lose that much and even if we did, then then it should not be that difficult to make that up from the RoW....

The EU is a political club heading in a direction we don't want to go in and so it was only a matter of time before the choice was made for us. The Commission and the European Parliament and heads of 28 Governments sell nothing only hot air and its business that will dictate the agenda. Its why it won't decrease, it may even increase and more especially if expected we end up with a FTA....and in that case we will have our cake and eat it and no more interference, no more free movement and no more them dictating our laws! Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.



Depends on what terms we leave the EU.

If we leave with no deal and on poor terms with the EU, we’ll see a hefty hit economically, definitely a recession probably on a par with 2007-8 but without the rapid rebound. I suspect we’ll struggle to get back to growth after a few years but not close to current levels. I don’t have much confidence in our team to rapidly negotiate beneficial trade deals.

Another lost decade, which happening so soon after the financial crisis will leave us with considerable political and social problems.

If we leave with a CETA deal, not as bad as above but still think we’ll see a recession, followed by sluggish growth for rest of decade.

If May achieves her goal of a CETA+++ deal with significant access for services in the single market, then we’ll be reasonably okay, going forwards I’d be fairly confident we’ll do well.

Ditto if we stay in the single market via EEA.

So it’s all about the end deal. The trouble is Mays plan of relying of equivalence is fatally flawed, so I can’t see her getting the CETA+++ deal.

Hence I’m pessimistic about our future, we’ll survive and eventually the economy will resume growth albeit at lower levels than prior to the referendum. The first 3 Year’s will be the worst, particularly in a no deal scenario.


Hi Dan, yes you have said all that before but can you explain why all the businesses in the EU want to stop or reduce their trade and thus profits no matter how we leave the EU? I just wonder if you have been carried away with the doom and gloom of the establishment that most have never had a proper job or sold a thing in their lives and who's whole purpose is to maintain the status quo or to give them even more power over our lives? ie Just like the Catholic Church of the middle ages.

We have had recessions before and you would do well to read that piece from the Telegraph that sums up the situation nicely from a Remainer up to that point that is..It really is not about the 'Pound in your pocket' that I now recall Harold Wilson coming on the TV that evening when we we devalued our currency at that time....

I wonder how many here saw that live broadcast?
Last edited by beeswax on December 7th, 2017, 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Nimrod103
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1634
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 45 times
Been thanked: 128 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102430

Postby Nimrod103 » December 7th, 2017, 12:19 pm

SteMiS wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:I hope so Gryff, I really do.

John

It is worth reading Dr Doom (Ambrose Evan Pritchard) in today's DT (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... al-empire/). I always thought he was a Remainer - if so he is changing his tune.

Nope...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... thing-els/

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD


You are right about AEP having voted for Brexit , now I have looked back at his previous articles. I think I must have got the idea he was a Remainer from the somewhat cynical and resigned attitude in his works, in fact he says in one article - "As a citizen who voted for Brexit (reluctantly)". I also thought the DT had sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists, and gave more prominanace to Remainers (Warner, Deacon and Harris - I think they are Remainers, you have me worried now).

redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3909
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 347 times
Been thanked: 579 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102434

Postby redsturgeon » December 7th, 2017, 12:34 pm

beeswax wrote:


Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? No more 20bn per year membership fees.... Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.


I'd imagine with the extra headwinds that we have given ourselves with regard to trade with the EU we will lose some business, whether that is 5% or 10% who really knows but my guess would certainly be a negative number rather than positive or even flat.

Our net contribution in 2016 was £8.6bn not £20bn.

No more free movement for work and study in the other 27 countries for our kids. No more meeting the love of your life in Europe and bringing them home to marry and bring up a family...unless the home office approve. Hmmm what a legacy.

John

ursaminortaur
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2258
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 126 times
Been thanked: 88 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102438

Postby ursaminortaur » December 7th, 2017, 12:53 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:It is worth reading Dr Doom (Ambrose Evan Pritchard) in today's DT (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... al-empire/). I always thought he was a Remainer - if so he is changing his tune.

Nope...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... thing-els/

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD


You are right about AEP having voted for Brexit , now I have looked back at his previous articles. I think I must have got the idea he was a Remainer from the somewhat cynical and resigned attitude in his works, in fact he says in one article - "As a citizen who voted for Brexit (reluctantly)". I also thought the DT had sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists, and gave more prominanace to Remainers (Warner, Deacon and Harris - I think they are Remainers, you have me worried now).


I've always seen the DT as very much a brexit supporting paper and can't say that I've seen any change recently which would suggest that they have "sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists".

beeswax
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1953
Joined: December 20th, 2016, 11:20 pm
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 172 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102439

Postby beeswax » December 7th, 2017, 12:54 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
beeswax wrote:
Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? No more 20bn per year membership fees.... Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.


I'd imagine with the extra headwinds that we have given ourselves with regard to trade with the EU we will lose some business, whether that is 5% or 10% who really knows but my guess would certainly be a negative number rather than positive or even flat.

Our net contribution in 2016 was £8.6bn not £20bn.

No more free movement for work and study in the other 27 countries for our kids. No more meeting the love of your life in Europe and bringing them home to marry and bring up a family...unless the home office approve. Hmmm what a legacy.

John


John, I work on gross figures, not nett ones as the former are negotiable at the behest of the EU and there are predictions that in 2022 we will be paying 23bn a year gross and as more join or the budget goes up we pay more. Of course people will still be able to study and travel and get married and bring them home and these apply worldwide now. I don't personally like unrestricted entry from 500 millions from the EU or thousands of student coming in from there and the RoW on a pretence of study and then disappear and we have closed some university courses that were encouraging that. That is just the same old doom and gloom scenario that is totally unrealistic. I think you know all that though. ;)

It really is about control and we will then be no different than most other countries in the world like the USA and Australia.

Sundance13
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1859
Joined: March 15th, 2017, 1:02 pm
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 60 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102441

Postby Sundance13 » December 7th, 2017, 12:58 pm

beeswax wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:
beeswax wrote:
Hi again John,

I admire your pessimism too....;)

Are you and others thinking we will lose all that trade with the EU when we leave? I think of it all more simply that eg BMW will want to sell us the same amount of cars or even more, even if there were tariffs added on and so will everyone else on both sides and so I may be too optimistic but I don't think we will lose that much and even if we did, then then it should not be that difficult to make that up from the RoW....

The EU is a political club heading in a direction we don't want to go in and so it was only a matter of time before the choice was made for us. The Commission and the European Parliament and heads of 28 Governments sell nothing only hot air and its business that will dictate the agenda. Its why it won't decrease, it may even increase and more especially if expected we end up with a FTA....and in that case we will have our cake and eat it and no more interference, no more free movement and no more them dictating our laws! Wow what a prize for our kids and the next generation.



Depends on what terms we leave the EU.

If we leave with no deal and on poor terms with the EU, we’ll see a hefty hit economically, definitely a recession probably on a par with 2007-8 but without the rapid rebound. I suspect we’ll struggle to get back to growth after a few years but not close to current levels. I don’t have much confidence in our team to rapidly negotiate beneficial trade deals.

Another lost decade, which happening so soon after the financial crisis will leave us with considerable political and social problems.

If we leave with a CETA deal, not as bad as above but still think we’ll see a recession, followed by sluggish growth for rest of decade.

If May achieves her goal of a CETA+++ deal with significant access for services in the single market, then we’ll be reasonably okay, going forwards I’d be fairly confident we’ll do well.

Ditto if we stay in the single market via EEA.

So it’s all about the end deal. The trouble is Mays plan of relying of equivalence is fatally flawed, so I can’t see her getting the CETA+++ deal.

Hence I’m pessimistic about our future, we’ll survive and eventually the economy will resume growth albeit at lower levels than prior to the referendum. The first 3 Year’s will be the worst, particularly in a no deal scenario.


Hi Dan, yes you have said all that before but can you explain why all the businesses in the EU want to stop or reduce their trade and thus profits no matter how we leave the EU? I just wonder if you have been carried away with the doom and gloom of the establishment that most have never had a proper job or sold a thing in their lives and who's whole purpose is to maintain the status quo or to give them even more power over our lives? ie Just like the Catholic Church of the middle ages.

We have had recessions before and you would do well to read that piece from the Telegraph that sums up the situation nicely from a Remainer up to that point that is..It really is not about the 'Pound in your pocket' that I now recall Harold Wilson coming on the TV that evening when we we devalued our currency at that time....

I wonder how many here saw that live broadcast?



Hi Mike,

Nobody wants to stop or reduce trade, it’s just the inevitable consequence of Mays decision to turn us into a 3rd country in terms of trade with the EU after we leave.

It’s all about barriers and reduced access. For me it’s fairly simple, if you stick barriers to trade up or certain companies lose the right to access the single market, e.g loss of financial passport, your going to be worse off than if you hadn’t done this. It’s akin to expecting Usain Bolt to run a 100m as quickly on a muddy grass track, with hurdles placed in the way, as he does on a normal track. Yes he’ll run quickly still but it’s impossible he’ll be as quick as he is on the track.

Because we’re leaving the single market, many sectors won’t have the same level of access as they do currently, as we’ll become a 3rd country. So businesses will either have to relocate part or all of their business to the continent, change their business model or go bust. We’ve already seen examples of this in banking and aviation companies relocating, more will follow if May doesn’t secure a deal soon. I also expect inward investment to drop as the UK loses some access to its largest market.

The other reason I’m so pessimistic is our Govt appears utterly inept, so I have low confidence on them properly planning and mitigating the effects of no deal (not that they could anyway due to lack of time), or being able to quickly pull together and agree high quality FTAs with non EU countries. We know already they haven’t done an impact analysis on no deal, so I question how much understanding they have on the impacts and what mitigation would be required.

So due to an inept Govt, lack of time and the fact Trade (particularly in services) will be harder with our biggest market after we leave, I think it will be a real struggle after we leave and we will be considerably worse off than had we remained or opted for a soft Brexit.

SteMiS
Lemon Slice
Posts: 898
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 9:41 pm
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 117 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102466

Postby SteMiS » December 7th, 2017, 2:24 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:It is worth reading Dr Doom (Ambrose Evan Pritchard) in today's DT (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... al-empire/). I always thought he was a Remainer - if so he is changing his tune.

Nope...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... thing-els/

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD

You are right about AEP having voted for Brexit , now I have looked back at his previous articles. I think I must have got the idea he was a Remainer from the somewhat cynical and resigned attitude in his works, in fact he says in one article - "As a citizen who voted for Brexit (reluctantly)". I also thought the DT had sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists, and gave more prominanace to Remainers (Warner, Deacon and Harris - I think they are Remainers, you have me worried now).

I don't know where you got that impression from

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/leave-cam ... telegraph/

JULY 7, 2017 - Dia Chakravarty has been appointed Brexit Editor of the Telegraph.

Chakravarty, a prominent Leave campaigner during the EU Referendum campaign, will provide leadership of the Brexit team and will also be central to Brexit-themed Telegraph video, podcasts and exclusive subscriber events – the Telegraph said.

Chakravarty said: “It’s an honour to be able to shape The Telegraph’s coverage of Brexit, arguably the most important political event in generations.


So the Telegraph's Brexit coverage headed up by a prominent leave campaigner. Rather than 'sacking' Brexit supporters they seem to be putting them in charge.

Nimrod103
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1634
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 45 times
Been thanked: 128 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102473

Postby Nimrod103 » December 7th, 2017, 2:34 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
SteMiS wrote:Nope...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... thing-els/

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU
AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD


You are right about AEP having voted for Brexit , now I have looked back at his previous articles. I think I must have got the idea he was a Remainer from the somewhat cynical and resigned attitude in his works, in fact he says in one article - "As a citizen who voted for Brexit (reluctantly)". I also thought the DT had sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists, and gave more prominanace to Remainers (Warner, Deacon and Harris - I think they are Remainers, you have me worried now).


I've always seen the DT as very much a brexit supporting paper and can't say that I've seen any change recently which would suggest that they have "sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists".


I think the DT only made up its mind to support the Leave campaign about 6 months before the Referendum. Didn't it cause quite a bit of tension for it go with its readership, rather than with the then Tory prime minister? I find the only one of their current contributors who is convincingly and consistently a Brexiteer is Liam Halligan.

Anyway, back on topic, Schulz, who has a good chance of being the German leader sometime, has said - ttps://order-order.com/2017/12/07/schul ... qus_thread
He just seems to be backing up what Junker said the other day. The direction of travel for the EU is quite clear.

ursaminortaur
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2258
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:26 pm
Has thanked: 126 times
Been thanked: 88 times

Re: The Future Post Brexit

#102488

Postby ursaminortaur » December 7th, 2017, 3:21 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
You are right about AEP having voted for Brexit , now I have looked back at his previous articles. I think I must have got the idea he was a Remainer from the somewhat cynical and resigned attitude in his works, in fact he says in one article - "As a citizen who voted for Brexit (reluctantly)". I also thought the DT had sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists, and gave more prominanace to Remainers (Warner, Deacon and Harris - I think they are Remainers, you have me worried now).


I've always seen the DT as very much a brexit supporting paper and can't say that I've seen any change recently which would suggest that they have "sacked almost all their Brexit supporting journalists".


I think the DT only made up its mind to support the Leave campaign about 6 months before the Referendum. Didn't it cause quite a bit of tension for it go with its readership, rather than with the then Tory prime minister? I find the only one of their current contributors who is convincingly and consistently a Brexiteer is Liam Halligan.

Anyway, back on topic, Schulz, who has a good chance of being the German leader sometime, has said - ttps://order-order.com/2017/12/07/schul ... qus_thread
He just seems to be backing up what Junker said the other day. The direction of travel for the EU is quite clear.


This is nothing new - Schulz made the same statements back in June. It didn't seem to help him in the German elections.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/martin-schulz-puts-federal-eu-at-centre-of-election-campaign-klbnnmp9d

Angela Merkel’s main rival for the German leadership has put the creation of a United States of Europe at the heart of his election campaign.

There are some politicians who support the idea of a united states of europe and others who are against the idea the fact that Schulz supports the idea has limited bearing on whether it is likely to happen.


Return to “Polite Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Sorcery and 2 guests