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Hard vs Soft Brexit?

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johnhemming
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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#117818

Postby johnhemming » February 13th, 2018, 10:03 am

Nimrod103 wrote:I wasn't really trying to make a blinkered party political point, so much as pointing out that other parties contain mainly members and politicians who reject the unfettered private sector, and who believe that the state sector should be the cornerstone of of the UK economy.

The conservatives don't all believe that the private sector should be unregulated. The majority agree with some regulation. Furthermore in my experience the Lib Dem Parliamentary Party did not "believe that the state sector should be the cornerstone of of the UK economy."

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#117820

Postby johnhemming » February 13th, 2018, 10:05 am

Nimrod103 wrote:Margaret Thatcher was a strong supporter of the Single Market in its complete form to include services (AIUI not implemented in the EU) but finally baulked at the cost in terms of submitting to Maastricht and Lisbon. Which is of course why she was defenestrated by the Tory grandees.

Lisbon was such a long time after Thatcher was removed that it cannot be part of causality. The main thing in the tory party is normally winning elections (unsurprisingly). She was deposed because they thought she would lose and to be fair to Major he won in 1992.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#117901

Postby Nimrod103 » February 13th, 2018, 4:00 pm

johnhemming wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Margaret Thatcher was a strong supporter of the Single Market in its complete form to include services (AIUI not implemented in the EU) but finally baulked at the cost in terms of submitting to Maastricht and Lisbon. Which is of course why she was defenestrated by the Tory grandees.

Lisbon was such a long time after Thatcher was removed that it cannot be part of causality. The main thing in the tory party is normally winning elections (unsurprisingly). She was deposed because they thought she would lose and to be fair to Major he won in 1992.


It is true that Mrs Thatcher's popularity had waned, mainly perhaps because she had outlived all but one of her early ministers, so did not give the impression of leading a united Govt any more. The coup de grace was given by her longest surviving minister Geoffrey Howe (to quote Wikipedia):
On 1 November 1990, Geoffrey Howe, the last remaining member of Thatcher's original 1979 cabinet, resigned from his position as Deputy Prime Minister over her refusal to agree to a timetable for Britain to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism
Subsequent events showed that on this, like so much else, she had been right and the establishment, party grandees and civil servants were wrong, very wrong.
After the Delors and Bruges speeches, it is inconceivable that Mrs Thatcher would have signed Maastricht if she had still been PM. But her successor and all the other Tory grandees supported Maastricht and ERM with gusto, and that was the fateful mistake.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#117918

Postby Sundance13 » February 13th, 2018, 4:53 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:Margaret Thatcher was a strong supporter of the Single Market in its complete form to include services (AIUI not implemented in the EU) but finally baulked at the cost in terms of submitting to Maastricht and Lisbon. Which is of course why she was defenestrated by the Tory grandees.

Lisbon was such a long time after Thatcher was removed that it cannot be part of causality. The main thing in the tory party is normally winning elections (unsurprisingly). She was deposed because they thought she would lose and to be fair to Major he won in 1992.


It is true that Mrs Thatcher's popularity had waned, mainly perhaps because she had outlived all but one of her early ministers, so did not give the impression of leading a united Govt any more. The coup de grace was given by her longest surviving minister Geoffrey Howe (to quote Wikipedia):
On 1 November 1990, Geoffrey Howe, the last remaining member of Thatcher's original 1979 cabinet, resigned from his position as Deputy Prime Minister over her refusal to agree to a timetable for Britain to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism
Subsequent events showed that on this, like so much else, she had been right and the establishment, party grandees and civil servants were wrong, very wrong.
After the Delors and Bruges speeches, it is inconceivable that Mrs Thatcher would have signed Maastricht if she had still been PM. But her successor and all the other Tory grandees supported Maastricht and ERM with gusto, and that was the fateful mistake.



For once we agree!

Thatcher had come to realise the direction the EU was taking and certainly wouldn’t have supported Maastricht. That said I don’t think the Federalist threat is as strong now as it was back then, partly because the EU now has more members, many of whom are opposed to a US of Europe.

I also don’t believe she’d be daft enough to take us out of the single market and she wouldn’t have suffered fools like Boris and his bizarre deregulation fantasies.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#117940

Postby Nimrod103 » February 13th, 2018, 6:15 pm

Sundance13 wrote:Thatcher had come to realise the direction the EU was taking and certainly wouldn’t have supported Maastricht. That said I don’t think the Federalist threat is as strong now as it was back then, partly because the EU now has more members, many of whom are opposed to a US of Europe.


My view has been and remains that the federalist threat is the biggest issue of all. The organs of the EU are specifically designed to give rise to a unelected dictatorship of technocrats, outside of normal democratic control. The European Parliament is very large, riven by faction and nationality, well remunerated and toothless. Post Brexit I am sure we will see a further consolidation of the Franco-German axis, running things very much to their own advantage, while the outlying and smaller countries are dependent on EU handouts, and on the stability to their economies which being assoiated with Germany brings. Those countries will probably not rock the boat, and any dash for self determination will be squashed.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119563

Postby ursaminortaur » February 21st, 2018, 11:24 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Thatcher had come to realise the direction the EU was taking and certainly wouldn’t have supported Maastricht. That said I don’t think the Federalist threat is as strong now as it was back then, partly because the EU now has more members, many of whom are opposed to a US of Europe.


My view has been and remains that the federalist threat is the biggest issue of all. The organs of the EU are specifically designed to give rise to a unelected dictatorship of technocrats, outside of normal democratic control. The European Parliament is very large, riven by faction and nationality, well remunerated and toothless. Post Brexit I am sure we will see a further consolidation of the Franco-German axis, running things very much to their own advantage, while the outlying and smaller countries are dependent on EU handouts, and on the stability to their economies which being assoiated with Germany brings. Those countries will probably not rock the boat, and any dash for self determination will be squashed.


The number of MEPs is 751. The number of UK MPs is currently 650 but has in the past been more eg 707 between 1918 and 1922.
The current number in the House of Lords is just under 800 - which is a reduction from the 1,330 in 1999.

So yes the European parliament is large but then it is representing a far larger electorate than the UK parliament.
The legislative power is all with the Council of ministers representing the states of the EU and the EU parliament representing the citizens of the EU.
Many decisions in the Council of Ministers still require unanimity and where votes are decided by QMV it requires 55% of member states representing at least 65% of the EU population to agree. Hence although France and Germany, like the UK, by virtue of being big countries have a large amount of influence they do not form an axis controlling the EU.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119566

Postby gbjbaanb » February 21st, 2018, 11:45 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:The number of MEPs is 751. The number of UK MPs is currently 650


The EU population is 512m people or 680,000 people per MEP
UK, 66m people, or 100,000 per MP.

So is the EU under-represented, or the UK over-represented?

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119652

Postby ursaminortaur » February 22nd, 2018, 11:16 am

The EU has ruled out May's 3 basket strategy for regulatory alignment.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/eu-rules-out-uks-preferred-approach-to-future-trade-deal

Under what is understood to be Mays preferred model, the UK would be in regulatory alignment with the EU in some areas while finding different ways to achieve the same outcomes in other sectors. In the so-called third basket of sectors, the UK would in time diverge from the EU and go its own way under the model.
Yet, with something close to incendiary timing, the European commission, hours abefore the cabinet get-together, has published a document ruling out the model.
It is claimed by Brussels that such an approach would breach an agreement among EU27 leaders to prevent cherry-picking by the UK that it is said would pose a risk to the integrity of the single market.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119712

Postby dspp » February 22nd, 2018, 4:16 pm

The UK's politicians are used to postponing, fudging, and stonewalling each other, and the media, and the electorate.

Unfortunately for the Brexiteers amongst them they have set in chain a process whereby they are up against a set of EU institutions and processes that generally try to drive out ambiguity, and against a deadline that the UK is no longer in control of.

Yesterday the lady in my local bakery apologised when she gave me change, and said the price of their bread had gone up because of all the Brexit price rises. The penny is dropping out there, bit by bit. Even if they don't always get the causal connections neatly lined up in PhD terms they can sense when they've been conned.

- dspp

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119722

Postby Sundance13 » February 22nd, 2018, 5:15 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:The EU has ruled out May's 3 basket strategy for regulatory alignment.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/eu-rules-out-uks-preferred-approach-to-future-trade-deal

Under what is understood to be Mays preferred model, the UK would be in regulatory alignment with the EU in some areas while finding different ways to achieve the same outcomes in other sectors. In the so-called third basket of sectors, the UK would in time diverge from the EU and go its own way under the model.
Yet, with something close to incendiary timing, the European commission, hours abefore the cabinet get-together, has published a document ruling out the model.
It is claimed by Brussels that such an approach would breach an agreement among EU27 leaders to prevent cherry-picking by the UK that it is said would pose a risk to the integrity of the single market.



Noticed the Commission are also pointing out other impacts of Mays decision to leave the Single Market, in terms of type approvals for vehicle manufacturers and driving licences.

There will be similar issues around accessing the Single Market, for other sectors such as Pharma and chemicals.

Notice also inward EU migration (which we can’t control) has hit a 10 year low, while non EU migration (which we supposedly can control) carries on upwards!

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119723

Postby Sundance13 » February 22nd, 2018, 5:22 pm

The Economist sees the light! Bit late mind.

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/ ... -do-brexit

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119725

Postby gryffron » February 22nd, 2018, 5:23 pm

dspp wrote:bread had gone up because of all the Brexit price rises.

Those would be the "price rises blamed on brexit even though the dollar is now cheaper than its pre-referendum low".

£1=$1.40 today. Was $1.38 on 27 feb 2016.

:|

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119732

Postby Nimrod103 » February 22nd, 2018, 5:54 pm

gryffron wrote:
dspp wrote:bread had gone up because of all the Brexit price rises.

Those would be the "price rises blamed on brexit even though the dollar is now cheaper than its pre-referendum low".

£1=$1.40 today. Was $1.38 on 27 feb 2016.

:|


Indeed this is what is so worrying. This poor lady baker has been completely taken in by fake news. The wheat price has been falling for quite a while, and futures are on a long term downtrend. The £/$ rate is stable. Of course after Brexit, I expect sugar prices to go down as we don't have to buy French and Polish beet sugar.

What has gone up are minimum wages (a good thing - you should be pleased to pay for them), business rates (just a waste of money), shop rents (just an extortion racket) and energy costs (just the price of subsidising wind turbines).

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119735

Postby SalvorHardin » February 22nd, 2018, 6:02 pm

gryffron wrote:Those would be the "price rises blamed on brexit even though the dollar is now cheaper than its pre-referendum low".

£1=$1.40 today. Was $1.38 on 27 feb 2016.

:|

Wheat isn't a commodity I follow, but wheat prices contain lots of information relevant to the claim. Now wheat is an internationally traded commodity where distance doesn't greatly influence the price (unlike say natural gas). Let us consider the price of a benchmark monthly wheat future, the generic W1. Link below.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/W%201:COM

Since the Brexit vote the price of W1 wheat in US dollars has fallen. It's pretty hard to justify a major price rise when the price of a major input has fallen.

W1 is however up by about 10% in 2018. Seems as credible a claim as Unilever raising the price of Marmite by 10% because of Brexit, even though Marmite is almost 100% made from British inputs.

Producers lying through their teeth about the effect that a high profile event has upon their prices, when the influence of the event is very small if any, is as old as economics. Brexit is a good one to use if you want to fool those who are only too willing to believe the worst about it.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119740

Postby ursaminortaur » February 22nd, 2018, 6:11 pm

Nimrod103 wrote:
gryffron wrote:
dspp wrote:bread had gone up because of all the Brexit price rises.

Those would be the "price rises blamed on brexit even though the dollar is now cheaper than its pre-referendum low".

£1=$1.40 today. Was $1.38 on 27 feb 2016.

:|


Indeed this is what is so worrying. This poor lady baker has been completely taken in by fake news. The wheat price has been falling for quite a while, and futures are on a long term downtrend. The £/$ rate is stable. Of course after Brexit, I expect sugar prices to go down as we don't have to buy French and Polish beet sugar.

What has gone up are minimum wages (a good thing - you should be pleased to pay for them), business rates (just a waste of money), shop rents (just an extortion racket) and energy costs (just the price of subsidising wind turbines).


Genuine question is the world wheat price tied to the dollar ?
The EU is the biggest wheat producing area not the US

https://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-map-countries-wheat-production.html

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119754

Postby Nimrod103 » February 22nd, 2018, 7:32 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
gryffron wrote:Those would be the "price rises blamed on brexit even though the dollar is now cheaper than its pre-referendum low".

£1=$1.40 today. Was $1.38 on 27 feb 2016.

:|


Indeed this is what is so worrying. This poor lady baker has been completely taken in by fake news. The wheat price has been falling for quite a while, and futures are on a long term downtrend. The £/$ rate is stable. Of course after Brexit, I expect sugar prices to go down as we don't have to buy French and Polish beet sugar.

What has gone up are minimum wages (a good thing - you should be pleased to pay for them), business rates (just a waste of money), shop rents (just an extortion racket) and energy costs (just the price of subsidising wind turbines).


Genuine question is the world wheat price tied to the dollar ?
The EU is the biggest wheat producing area not the US

https://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-map-countries-wheat-production.html


This article describes recent wheat prices in £ and Euro. It says the global market generally trades in dollars

https://cereals.ahdb.org.uk/markets/mar ... 50218.aspx

The graph shows a declining trend (in £) from £145/t in November to £139/t in mid Feb.
Shouldn't there be some sort of penalty for spreading fake news?

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119757

Postby JMN2 » February 22nd, 2018, 8:25 pm

Well, Brexit is conveniently used as an excuse in other instances also. For instance, Jamie Oliver blamed Brexit for business troubles for his restaurant chain some time ago, and now it was in the news he's closing some restaurants, due to Brexit. When the fact is he opened restaurants in silly places like in Tunbridge Wells or Sevenoaks when in that town all activity centers in a certain shopping centre and his restaurant is nowhere near, and that he is serving "Pizza Express food" for twice the price.

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119870

Postby dspp » February 23rd, 2018, 11:14 am

Wheat is an iffy one, as its price fell quite steeply between Jun 13 and Jun 27 2016 making the starting point very sensitive, even before one overlays crrency movements. Take a look and draw your own conclusion:
http://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-p ... chart-data

However running a bakery is about more than buying wheat. I suspect the shop owner has her fingers on the numbers that are relevant to her, more than any of us do. What struck me most was the tone of her voice, she'd clearly been thinking about it.

Sounds like Brexit at Chequers yesterday was another Con internal fudge & can kick exercise. That's OK if talking to oneself, but not when the homework gets marked externally.

regards, dspp

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119946

Postby BobbyD » February 23rd, 2018, 4:11 pm

dspp wrote:Sounds like Brexit at Chequers yesterday was another Con internal fudge & can kick exercise. That's OK if talking to oneself, but not when the homework gets marked externally.


Works perfectly if you are planning to paint the external examiner as the fall guy to your domestic audience though...

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Re: Hard vs Soft Brexit?

#119949

Postby 1nv35t » February 23rd, 2018, 4:20 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:Sounds like Brexit at Chequers yesterday was another Con internal fudge & can kick exercise. That's OK if talking to oneself, but not when the homework gets marked externally.

Works perfectly if you are planning to paint the external examiner as the fall guy to your domestic audience though...

Hard Brexit - actually leaving versus Soft Brexit - not leaving, along with NI border etc. obstacles have pretty much assured exit to WTO. Just fill the time gap with whatever until the A50 time expires (MP's/Lords reject the 'deal'/progress until the countdown 2 year clock expires, at which point the UK is out of the EU). Irish having to instate a border under EU rules, UK opting to zero tariff until after such EU side borders are erected and then reciprocate border controls on the UK side thereafter (EU clearly seen as the violator of GFA).


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