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UK Growth weakens further

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ap8889
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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#138697

Postby ap8889 » May 13th, 2018, 6:25 am

The method of producing GDP growth estimates is pretty woolly.

Infinite growth on a finite planet is the definition of madness. Perhaps we should consider that expanding the economy to infinity necessarily destroys our ecosystem to infinite degree. A steady state economy is desirable.

Perhaps we should thus be cheering the fact that despite no growth, life went on as normal and most people were happy enough.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#138759

Postby Ashfordian » May 13th, 2018, 11:52 am

ZipserSir wrote:A little late to this discussion - playing catch-up - but this looks like an investment issue. Businesses are deferring investment because of uncertainty over the future - of which Brexit is one significant part. Until UK Gov can demonstrate more certainty about the future, many businesses will defer making commitments. In the meantime a slow down in economic growth. Cue job cuts and reduced profits n'est pas?


While I don't subscribe to this view but it is a potential scenario.

If we play out this scenario out it means that there is a huge amount of pent up investment waiting to be deployed once the final deal is known, no matter what the end result is. Remainers will hate this as it is another way that disproves their project fear economic lies.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#138767

Postby ZipserSir » May 13th, 2018, 12:03 pm

Ashfordian wrote:If we play out this scenario out it means that there is a huge amount of pent up investment waiting to be deployed once the final deal is known, no matter what the end result is. Remainers will hate this as it is another way that disproves their project fear economic lies.


I wish this were true, but I doubt it. I don't like brexit - rather than being a remoaner - because, I have a very strong feeling that the issues that have tied the UK in knots for the last two years will continue to plague us for many years to come, even when we know what the end result will be. If we leave, as I believe we will, brexit and its consequences will still be on the parliamentary menu every month (week?) for the next ten years, and by then the rejoin movement will be in full-swing. Project fear came true - the Government is focused on brexit to the exclusion of more important issues.

I don't know how UK businesses will cope with this - or non-UK businesses wishing to invest in the UK. I just see a long period of unhelpful disruption ahead. Rather pessimistic, I'm afraid, and out of character. I genuinely hope I am wrong - my (our) pensions depends on it!

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#138769

Postby ursaminortaur » May 13th, 2018, 12:06 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
ZipserSir wrote:A little late to this discussion - playing catch-up - but this looks like an investment issue. Businesses are deferring investment because of uncertainty over the future - of which Brexit is one significant part. Until UK Gov can demonstrate more certainty about the future, many businesses will defer making commitments. In the meantime a slow down in economic growth. Cue job cuts and reduced profits n'est pas?


While I don't subscribe to this view but it is a potential scenario.

If we play out this scenario out it means that there is a huge amount of pent up investment waiting to be deployed once the final deal is known, no matter what the end result is. Remainers will hate this as it is another way that disproves their project fear economic lies.


Only if the situation in the UK post-brexit favours those businesses investing in the UK rather than moving their operations somewhere else.
A very soft brexit (or cancelation of brexit) would probably see that pent-up investment largely being deployed in the UK again but a hard brexit would likely see a lot of it deployed elsewhere. Unfortunately some of it though will have been deployed elsewhere in the meantime so even if brexit were cancelled things will be worse than if the UK hadn't decided to follow this path.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#138913

Postby BobbyD » May 14th, 2018, 1:18 am

Ashfordian wrote:If we play out this scenario out it means that there is a huge amount of pent up investment waiting to be deployed once the final deal is known, no matter what the end result is. Remainers will hate this as it is another way that disproves their project fear economic lies.


If it was all milk and honey no matter what the result then their wouldn't be any uncertainty and investment wouldn't be being withheld at the moment.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150343

Postby Ashfordian » July 5th, 2018, 9:46 pm

Sundance13 wrote:Thought it was all ‘Project Fear’ ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-4391 ... _130362144


Mark Carney wrote:the weak start to the year for the UK economy was down to bad weather


Now seems a good time to update this thread although we have not had the official figures yet for the full egg on your face effect...

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150353

Postby JMN2 » July 5th, 2018, 10:37 pm

Ebbs and flows, he's probably getting the Altzheimers, so unlike him.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150368

Postby Sundance13 » July 6th, 2018, 6:08 am

Ashfordian wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Thought it was all ‘Project Fear’ ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-4391 ... _130362144


Mark Carney wrote:the weak start to the year for the UK economy was down to bad weather


Now seems a good time to update this thread although we have not had the official figures yet for the full egg on your face effect...


Ashfordian, you selectively pick on one throwaway line and ignore the other posts I made on the same day that made it clear Brexit was not the only factor at work and also it was the longer term downwards trend I was more interested in (from a Brexit perspective), not a one off figure. Here’s 1 quote I made:

No, and I agree there are non Brexit factors at work, but if you look at the chart on the earlier BBC link, the trend since 2016 has been downwards and we’ve gone from top of the main economies in terms of growth rate to bottom. While not entirely due to Brexit uncertainty, I dare say some of it is. Think the BoE said last year we’d lost around £200m per week due to Brexit uncertainty.


My throwaway line at the start was merely a reference to Brexiteers like you claiming everything has gone fine since the referendum, that the economic forecasts were completely wrong then and so will be proved wrong again after we’ve left (even with no deal), whereas I actually see little correlation with how we are doing now with how we will do after we leave.

Moderator Message:
RS: I have removed some overly personal remarks while trying to keep the sense of your post.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150373

Postby johnhemming » July 6th, 2018, 7:38 am

Ashfordian wrote:If we play out this scenario out it means that there is a huge amount of pent up investment waiting to be deployed once the final deal is known, no matter what the end result is. Remainers will hate this as it is another way that disproves their project fear economic lies.

What is obvious it that people are holding back investment until they get some certainty. Some will be released whatever the certainty is. However, the points about frictionless trade and rules of origin remain relevant.

I think the majority of the government now recognise that of the possible options the EEA option is the only one that is sensible. The problem with that option is the lack of sovereignty, but we are likely to have to follow some EU rules whatever the outcome is.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150390

Postby gryffron » July 6th, 2018, 9:17 am

johnhemming wrote:I think the majority of the government now recognise that of the possible options the EEA option is the only one that is sensible. The problem with that option is the lack of sovereignty, but we are likely to have to follow some EU rules whatever the outcome is.

I've been persuaded of that too. The problem I see is not sovereignty, but that the EU will not accept EEA trade without free movement. Pretty sure the latter would be unacceptable to most brexiteers. So someone is going to have to give in bigtime if we are to have EEA. Personally, I can't see it happening.

Gryff

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150391

Postby johnhemming » July 6th, 2018, 9:19 am

The government have I think in principle accepted that travel will be visa free. The issue of Freedom of Movement really has been one relating to qualifying for benefits etc (something that Cameron negotiated a reasonably good solution on). Hence FoM specifically in isolation is not necessarily that much of an issue.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150406

Postby UncleEbenezer » July 6th, 2018, 10:10 am

johnhemming wrote:The government have I think in principle accepted that travel will be visa free. The issue of Freedom of Movement really has been one relating to qualifying for benefits etc (something that Cameron negotiated a reasonably good solution on). Hence FoM specifically in isolation is not necessarily that much of an issue.

Cameron's "solution" on that was a terrible one! Not least because it was wholly superfluous negotiating a four-year qualifying period when EU standard rules (setting aside UK perversity) stipulate five years legally resident before you can make a claim for settled status and thus qualify for benefits.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150411

Postby Sundance13 » July 6th, 2018, 10:23 am

gryffron wrote:
johnhemming wrote:I think the majority of the government now recognise that of the possible options the EEA option is the only one that is sensible. The problem with that option is the lack of sovereignty, but we are likely to have to follow some EU rules whatever the outcome is.

I've been persuaded of that too. The problem I see is not sovereignty, but that the EU will not accept EEA trade without free movement. Pretty sure the latter would be unacceptable to most brexiteers. So someone is going to have to give in bigtime if we are to have EEA. Personally, I can't see it happening.

Gryff



The sovereignty issue is a tricky one to assess for me, as although we may end up a rule taker on single market regs, these only represent 25% of full EU acquis, the other 75% we reclaim sovereignty on, so its gain a bit, lose a bit.

The free movement bit is tricky if people want more control than say the safeguarding/emergency brake provides, I don’t think an agreement can be reached to opt out of it completely, but a modified arrangement may be feasible. First though the Govt needs to get real with its proposals and stop the ‘cake & eat it’ proposals.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150417

Postby Ashfordian » July 6th, 2018, 10:40 am

Moderator Message:
RS: Off topic attempt at moderating the thread.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150420

Postby Sundance13 » July 6th, 2018, 10:45 am

Moderator Message:
RS: Over personal response to previously deleted post.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150493

Postby Sundance13 » July 6th, 2018, 1:52 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
Moderator Message:
RS: Over personal response to previously deleted post.



Fair enough, it probably was a bit close to the mark, but then it is a tad annoying when you are not only misquoted once, but then having drawn attention to the posters error, he then repeats the statement a couple of posts later!

Anyway, to repeat my earlier post, I did NOT place the blame for the low Q1 GDP figure solely on Brexit (as claimed), but on multiple factors including the weather. I do however believe Brexit is acting as a constraint on growth rates, as backed up by the trend for lower growth over the past 18 months. Page 1 has all the details.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150515

Postby Ashfordian » July 6th, 2018, 2:16 pm

Sundance13 wrote:Anyway, to repeat my earlier post, I did NOT place the blame for the low Q1 GDP figure solely on Brexit (as claimed), but on multiple factors including the weather. I do however believe Brexit is acting as a constraint on growth rates, as backed up by the trend for lower growth over the past 18 months. Page 1 has all the details.


In the first post of this thread you used the words "Project Fear". You can go back and read it whenever you like!

You know and we all know you wanted it to solely to be Brexit responsible for this. In posts since you have blamed Brexit on slowing growth and used these numbers to underpin your argument.

Brexit had nothing to do with this number being lower and the Q2 numbers will prove this despite your first post pointing the blame only at Brexit.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#150531

Postby Sundance13 » July 6th, 2018, 2:42 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Anyway, to repeat my earlier post, I did NOT place the blame for the low Q1 GDP figure solely on Brexit (as claimed), but on multiple factors including the weather. I do however believe Brexit is acting as a constraint on growth rates, as backed up by the trend for lower growth over the past 18 months. Page 1 has all the details.


In the first post of this thread you used the words "Project Fear". You can go back and read it whenever you like!

You know and we all know you wanted it to solely to be Brexit responsible for this. In posts since you have blamed Brexit on slowing growth and used these numbers to underpin your argument.

Brexit had nothing to do with this number being lower and the Q2 numbers will prove this despite your first post pointing the blame only at Brexit.



My first post said:

“Thought it was all ‘Project Fear’ ?”

Which I explained earlier was because Brexiteers are always quick to say good economic news proves Project Fear was wrong, even though we haven’t left the EU yet.

As for the rest I actually used a graph showing several quarters of underperformance since the vote, to back up my Brexit affect claim, where is your evidence to back up your claim it’s nothing to do with Brexit?

As for wanting bad economic news to be all due to Brexit, if a slowing economy now stops a much worse, crash out Brexit next year, then yes I’ll admit to being more than happy to see that outcome.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#158475

Postby Ashfordian » August 10th, 2018, 11:29 am

Sundance13 wrote:The decline was seen across all 3 months, not just March, when the severe weather struck, so the ONS don’t see it as a significant factor.



UK growth boosted by warmer weather - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45141127

It's amazing how the ONS didn't see the disruptive cold weather of H1 having a significant effect on growth yet only 3 months later they say warm weather has boosted growth.

Despite them declaring themselves as 'independent' it is starting to look like they are as politicised as many other supposedly 'independent' organisations.


Sundance13 wrote:Personally I’m hoping the slump continues and deepens, we need a mini crisis to try and bring politicians to their senses before it’s too late.


Slump? It was obvious then that the lower growth was a result of winter weather that was way more severe than the UK normally gets but you wanted it to be Brexit related. Unless you are going blame Brexit as the reason for the unusually cold or warm weather we've had this year!

Another quarter gets reported and another quarter exposes the lies of Project Fear and the so called 'experts'.

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Re: UK Growth weakens further

#158487

Postby Sundance13 » August 10th, 2018, 11:49 am

Ashfordian wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:The decline was seen across all 3 months, not just March, when the severe weather struck, so the ONS don’t see it as a significant factor.



UK growth boosted by warmer weather - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45141127

It's amazing how the ONS didn't see the disruptive cold weather of H1 having a significant effect on growth yet only 3 months later they say warm weather has boosted growth.

Despite them declaring themselves as 'independent' it is starting to look like they are as politicised as many other supposedly 'independent' organisations.


Sundance13 wrote:Personally I’m hoping the slump continues and deepens, we need a mini crisis to try and bring politicians to their senses before it’s too late.


Slump? It was obvious then that the lower growth was a result of winter weather that was way more severe than the UK normally gets but you wanted it to be Brexit related. Unless you are going blame Brexit as the reason for the unusually cold or warm weather we've had this year!

Another quarter gets reported and another quarter exposes the lies of Project Fear and the so called 'experts'.


Only if you’re wearing very rosy coloured specs Ashfordian. I was deeply unimpressed with the figures, just 0.1% growth in June, way below historic levels. I note the £ fell on the news versus the $, so it appears the market doesn’t agree with you either. Here’s a bit from the BBC:

However, the ONS added that underlying growth remained "modest".
The ONS also said that the economy grew by 0.1% in June, down from a more robust 0.3% in the previous month.
The head of national accounts at the ONS, Rob Kent-Smith, said: "The economy picked up a little in the second quarter, with both retail sales and construction helped by the good weather and rebounding from the effects of the snow earlier in the year.
"However, manufacturing continued to fall back from its high point at the end of last year and underlying growth remained modest by historical standards.
"The UK's trade deficit noticeably worsened, as exports of cars and planes declined sharply while imports rose."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45141127

Brexit uncertainty remains a big drag on the economy and I suspect things will deteriorate further as we approach Brexit day.


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