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Serious Question - who do I vote for?

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Howyoudoin
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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221715

Postby Howyoudoin » May 15th, 2019, 9:23 am

johnhemming wrote:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800


European Election Voting Intention:

BXP: 26% (+26)
LAB: 22% (-3)
LDM: 19% (+12)
CON: 12% (-12)
GRN: 10% (+2)
CHUK: 4% (+4)
UKIP: 3% (-24)



It's interesting that if you add up all of the 'leave' percentages above, then all of the 'remain' percentages, split the Labour % with their ambiguous position between the two camps and finally be generous to Remain by giving them the missing 4%, you get . . .

52% Leave / 48% Remain

Now where have I seen that before?

:)

HYD

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221720

Postby Howyoudoin » May 15th, 2019, 9:27 am

dspp wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
So, it could fund enough of a tax cut for everyone to buy themselves a fancy takeaway coffee once a week. Wow.


It might even pay for the fuel for the OP to get off their behind and travel - what was it - 26 miles to pick up their vote.

- dspp


You think £2.60 is enough to fund a 50 mile round trip?

No wonder you are so out of touch.

HYD

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221742

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 10:23 am

dspp wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
So, it could fund enough of a tax cut for everyone to buy themselves a fancy takeaway coffee once a week. Wow.


It might even pay for the fuel for the OP to get off their behind and travel - what was it - 26 miles to pick up their vote.

- dspp

Easy to make £8.9b sound like a small amount of money, but it would be enough to...

Build 10 new hospitals AND

Employ 50,000 additional nurses AND

Employ 50,000 additional teachers AND

Employ 40,000 additional police officers

EVERY YEAR.

Not sounding so trivial now is it.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221745

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 10:25 am

Howyoudoin wrote:
dspp wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
So, it could fund enough of a tax cut for everyone to buy themselves a fancy takeaway coffee once a week. Wow.


It might even pay for the fuel for the OP to get off their behind and travel - what was it - 26 miles to pick up their vote.

- dspp


You think £2.60 is enough to fund a 50 mile round trip?

No wonder you are so out of touch.

HYD

I think they were suggesting you did it on your bike and spent the £2.60 on a bottle of water for the journey :lol:

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221763

Postby dionaeamuscipula » May 15th, 2019, 11:22 am

Wizard wrote:You seem to have no interest in anything but money, so how about £8.9bn of net contributions to the EU per year.


Benefit of membership: £200bn per annum. Anything else?

DM

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221765

Postby Charlottesquare » May 15th, 2019, 11:31 am

scotia wrote:
Howyoudoin wrote:I voted Brexit and I've changed my mind.
I want us to stay in the EU.
Which party do I vote for, in order for this to happen?
HYD

Getting back to your original question, and ignoring much of the resulting polemic, I think that a vote for the Liberals or the Change UK party should be a clear statement of your desire. In my opinion, it doesn't matter which you choose - since its only the total number of votes to Remain parties that will make the major parties in parliament (Conservative and Labour) think again about attempting Brexit without at least a confirmatory vote. I.E. I don't think it really matters how many MEPs of a particular party are elected - its all about providing a scare to each of the major parties as to what may happen to them in a future general election. I chose Change UK for reasons I have already stated.
I do hope you take the trouble to travel the 50 miles to vote - whatever your voting preference may be. I'll finish with a quote, the source of which many of you will know:-
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.


No so sure- whilst all votes for the Remain parties will scare Lab/Con they will also, post match, examine the goat entrails and look at who is getting damaged by what, both themselves and the other main party. If the numbers flows such that in a GE, if the same sort of percentage vote splits were cast etc and using the statisticians black arts, they would still sneak in under FPTP (Remain split/ Brexit Party damage) they may well fear Lib Dems/Change less than if in some areas a single Remain party would beat both Lab/Con in a FPTP contest

Appreciate EU elections are not a GE, turnout is likely very different, who actually bothers to vote etc different, but there is a far better chance of scaring Lab/Con with the Remain vote as a cohesive whole than as a spread vote, because frankly, imho, all the EU elections are is the electorate getting a chance to scare Lab/Con and eliciting behaviour change through the fear hopefully engendered.

But I think we all also have to appreciate that the large parties are not naive enough to believe that things would actually be as bad at a GE, they know the EU /Locals midterm are likely worse than a GE so the more concentrated the scares the better. (Though who knows, politics these days is very hard to predict, maybe for Lab/Con instead of "Things can only get better" things can only get worse and the EU elections will be seen as a peak-stranger things have happened)

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221767

Postby Charlottesquare » May 15th, 2019, 11:34 am

Howyoudoin wrote:
johnhemming wrote:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800


European Election Voting Intention:

BXP: 26% (+26)
LAB: 22% (-3)
LDM: 19% (+12)
CON: 12% (-12)
GRN: 10% (+2)
CHUK: 4% (+4)
UKIP: 3% (-24)



It's interesting that if you add up all of the 'leave' percentages above, then all of the 'remain' percentages, split the Labour % with their ambiguous position between the two camps and finally be generous to Remain by giving them the missing 4%, you get . . .

52% Leave / 48% Remain

Now where have I seen that before?

:)

HYD


Not so sure you are that generous, you missed out the Nats who are not listed, they are likely to account for a fair chunk of that 4% and will, in the main, be Remain voters.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221792

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 12:57 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Wizard wrote:You seem to have no interest in anything but money, so how about £8.9bn of net contributions to the EU per year.


Benefit of membership: £200bn per annum. Anything else?

DM

We cannot know that number as we do not know the basis on which we will leave. Beyond that, I gave that number as MotorcycleBoy has demonstrated an inability and / or unwillingness to get his head around any points that are not purely financial (“£££” as he usually puts it), there are of course non financial points that many leavers consider important.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221814

Postby dionaeamuscipula » May 15th, 2019, 1:53 pm

Wizard wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Wizard wrote:You seem to have no interest in anything but money, so how about £8.9bn of net contributions to the EU per year.


Benefit of membership: £200bn per annum. Anything else?

DM

We cannot know that number as we do not know the basis on which we will leave. Beyond that, I gave that number as MotorcycleBoy has demonstrated an inability and / or unwillingness to get his head around any points that are not purely financial (“£££” as he usually puts it), there are of course non financial points that many leavers consider important.


You are quoting the total net contribution, and in context suggesting that removing that in full is a financial benefit of Brexit. It is therefore perfectly fair to quote back the full estimated benefit of remain.

I am fully aware that there are non-financial points that many leavers consider important. As you know to me they are all unimportant and in some cases (eg ending freedom of movement) significant disbenefits.

DM

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221828

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 2:52 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Wizard wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Benefit of membership: £200bn per annum. Anything else?

DM

We cannot know that number as we do not know the basis on which we will leave. Beyond that, I gave that number as MotorcycleBoy has demonstrated an inability and / or unwillingness to get his head around any points that are not purely financial (“£££” as he usually puts it), there are of course non financial points that many leavers consider important.


You are quoting the total net contribution, and in context suggesting that removing that in full is a financial benefit of Brexit. It is therefore perfectly fair to quote back the full estimated benefit of remain.

I am fully aware that there are non-financial points that many leavers consider important. As you know to me they are all unimportant and in some cases (eg ending freedom of movement) significant disbenefits.

DM

The question I was specifically asked was to identify one benefit of leaving, so I did just that. And for the record I agree, there is no benefit to stopping free movement.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221838

Postby johnhemming » May 15th, 2019, 4:46 pm

scotia wrote:I think that a vote for the Liberals or the Change UK party should be a clear statement of your desire. In my opinion, it doesn't matter which you choose - since its only the total number of votes to Remain parties that will make the major parties in parliament (Conservative and Labour) think again about attempting Brexit without at least a confirmatory vote. I.E. I don't think it really matters how many MEPs of a particular party are elected -

Interestingly the Change UK lead candidate in Scotland has now taken a different view. He has resigned as Change UK lead candidate and called for the change UK voters to vote Lib Dem.

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status ... 6781941762

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221845

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 15th, 2019, 5:01 pm

Wizard wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Wizard wrote:No, you were selectively highlighting and therefore misrepresenting what Nissan said. They said it was a business decision and then said Brexit uncertainty makes planning hard, that is not the same as saying Brexit was the reason for the decision which is what you are suggesting.


I don’t know what you said that was so offensive that two moderators intervened and one said if you do it again you will be banned, but it doesn’t sound like it is something you should be joking about. Clearly you are not at all repentant.

Wizard,

Whilst these games are all very exciting, you still haven't answered my question....

What is so good about leaving the EU?

Matt

so how about £8.9bn of net contributions to the EU per year.

O.k.
So....less than 1/2 that required to meet BJ's £350M/week bus lie. A tiny fraction of our annual GDP. Against the costs of increased tariffs, an exodus of business investment. That seems pathetic. Brexit is a crock! :lol:

You seem to have no interest in anything but money,

I'm most definitely interested in non-monetary things. So what were the non-monetary benefits of Brexit?

Matt

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221876

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 7:03 pm

I almost didn’t respond as you appear to be getting very abrasive, but on the basis I will get a civil response ultimately decided I would.

It is good to hear somebody knows the basis on which we will Brexit and therefore the precise tariffs that will apply. Could you please explain what they will be to me? If not how can you determine the detrimental impact? If we end up in the Single Market what tarrifs will apply between the UK and non-EU countries? If we end up in the Customs Union what tarrifs will apply between the UK and the EU? If we have a transitional period and during it agree to a deal similar to that Canada has with the EU what will tarrifs be between the UK and the EU?

Please don’t anyone else jump in I would like to hear MotorcycleBoy’s answers as he clearly has a very clear view on this.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221895

Postby dspp » May 15th, 2019, 7:41 pm

Wizard wrote:I almost didn’t respond as you appear to be getting very abrasive, but on the basis I will get a civil response ultimately decided I would.

It is good to hear somebody knows the basis on which we will Brexit and therefore the precise tariffs that will apply. Could you please explain what they will be to me? If not how can you determine the detrimental impact? If we end up in the Single Market what tarrifs will apply between the UK and non-EU countries? If we end up in the Customs Union what tarrifs will apply between the UK and the EU? If we have a transitional period and during it agree to a deal similar to that Canada has with the EU what will tarrifs be between the UK and the EU?

Please don’t anyone else jump in I would like to hear MotorcycleBoy’s answers as he clearly has a very clear view on this.


Tough. I'll jump in.

MB has said "increased tariffs". Well unless there is a customs union (= vassal state & loss of sovereignty) then there will be tariffs. And if you pull out the WTO schedules you can see what they are (and for my stuff it tends to be about 2% or so). And unless there is a FTA ( = = vassal state & loss of sovereignty) then those WTO tariffs will apply.

Bottom line, there will be costs. And just the slightest smidgin of costs will far outweigh the lies of £350m benefits (utter lies that Johnson is hopefully going to have to explain in court). Oh, and did I point out the vassal state bit come along into the bargain.

dspp

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221897

Postby Wizard » May 15th, 2019, 7:42 pm

dspp wrote:
Wizard wrote:I almost didn’t respond as you appear to be getting very abrasive, but on the basis I will get a civil response ultimately decided I would.

It is good to hear somebody knows the basis on which we will Brexit and therefore the precise tariffs that will apply. Could you please explain what they will be to me? If not how can you determine the detrimental impact? If we end up in the Single Market what tarrifs will apply between the UK and non-EU countries? If we end up in the Customs Union what tarrifs will apply between the UK and the EU? If we have a transitional period and during it agree to a deal similar to that Canada has with the EU what will tarrifs be between the UK and the EU?

Please don’t anyone else jump in I would like to hear MotorcycleBoy’s answers as he clearly has a very clear view on this.


Tough. I'll jump in.

MB has said "increased tariffs". Well unless there is a customs union (= vassal state & loss of sovereignty) then there will be tariffs. And if you pull out the WTO schedules you can see what they are (and for my stuff it tends to be about 2% or so). And unless there is a FTA ( = = vassal state & loss of sovereignty) then those WTO tariffs will apply.

Bottom line, there will be costs. And just the slightest smidgin of costs will far outweigh the lies of £350m benefits (utter lies that Johnson is hopefully going to have to explain in court). Oh, and did I point out the vassal state bit come along into the bargain.

dspp

No worries I won't read you answer.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221899

Postby BobbyD » May 15th, 2019, 7:47 pm

Curtice cautioned that the final results – including a potential seat for the Brexit party – were difficult to predict since there were significant differences between the two most recent polls.

A YouGov survey for the Times put Tory support at 10%, on the edge of defeat, compared with Farage’s Brexit party on 13%, just behind Labour on 14%. A Panelbase poll, however, reversed those findings. It put the Tories on 16% (excluding don’t knows) – enough to save its seat, and the Brexit party down at 10%, while Labour was on 20%, comfortably able to hold at least one seat.


- https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -elections

As things stand there is one viable Remain fish in the Scottish pond.

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221904

Postby dspp » May 15th, 2019, 8:42 pm

Wizard wrote:
dspp wrote:
Wizard wrote:I almost didn’t respond as you appear to be getting very abrasive,.


Bottom line, there will be costs. And ...the vassal state bit come along into the bargain.

dspp

No worries I won't read you answer.


It seems ignoring reality is such a Brexiteer thing.

dspp

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221906

Postby Howyoudoin » May 15th, 2019, 9:09 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Howyoudoin wrote:
johnhemming wrote:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1128365828569804800


European Election Voting Intention:

BXP: 26% (+26)
LAB: 22% (-3)
LDM: 19% (+12)
CON: 12% (-12)
GRN: 10% (+2)
CHUK: 4% (+4)
UKIP: 3% (-24)



It's interesting that if you add up all of the 'leave' percentages above, then all of the 'remain' percentages, split the Labour % with their ambiguous position between the two camps and finally be generous to Remain by giving them the missing 4%, you get . . .

52% Leave / 48% Remain

Now where have I seen that before?

:)

HYD


Not so sure you are that generous, you missed out the Nats who are not listed, they are likely to account for a fair chunk of that 4% and will, in the main, be Remain voters.


Interesting that you pulled me up on that missing 4% point rather than the 11% that I gave to remain from Labour.

Just out of interest, do Remainers here consider Labour to be a 'Leave' party or a 'Remain' party.

Seeing as they are negotiating our withdrawal from the EU with the Tories, I thought I was being generous giving remainers half of Labour's 22%.

HYD

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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221912

Postby ursaminortaur » May 15th, 2019, 9:31 pm

Howyoudoin wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
Howyoudoin wrote:

It's interesting that if you add up all of the 'leave' percentages above, then all of the 'remain' percentages, split the Labour % with their ambiguous position between the two camps and finally be generous to Remain by giving them the missing 4%, you get . . .

52% Leave / 48% Remain

Now where have I seen that before?

:)

HYD


Not so sure you are that generous, you missed out the Nats who are not listed, they are likely to account for a fair chunk of that 4% and will, in the main, be Remain voters.


Interesting that you pulled me up on that missing 4% point rather than the 11% that I gave to remain from Labour.

Just out of interest, do Remainers here consider Labour to be a 'Leave' party or a 'Remain' party.

Seeing as they are negotiating our withdrawal from the EU with the Tories, I thought I was being generous giving remainers half of Labour's 22%.

HYD


The majority of Labour members are in favour of a second referendum and the majority of Labour voters are in favour of remain. However Corbyn's opposition and history of left wing euroscepticism mean that it has to currently counted as supporting brexit despite the majority of its members and voters wishes. A lot of those traditional Labour supporters may well support other remain parties in the EU election but quite a lot will probably continue to vote Labour. The same thing will probably happen with the leave supporting Labour voters - a laege number of which will support thye brexit party but again quite a lot will continue tro support Labour. Thus, assuming the same percentage level of defections from Labour for both brexit and remain supporters, apportioning Labour support 50-50 to remain and leave is probably being somewhat generous to leave.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/91806/almost-80-labour-members-want-second

Almost eight in ten Labour members want a second EU referendum, a new poll has suggested.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn

In the 2016 referendum, Labour voters divided 67-33% in favour of remain. According to a recent YouGov survey among more than 25,000 voters, they divide 74-26% for remain, if the 2016 referendum choice were to be rerun. If – as seems more likely – a public vote would pitch remain against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, the majority among Labour voters widens further, to 82-18% for remain.

The latest YouGov poll, published today, reinforces this point. Just 18% of Labour supporters think the UK was right to vote to leave the EU; 74% say we were wrong. Excluding the don’t knows (8%), the party divides: right 20%, wrong 80%.
Last edited by ursaminortaur on May 15th, 2019, 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Howyoudoin
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Re: Serious Question - who do I vote for?

#221913

Postby Howyoudoin » May 15th, 2019, 9:34 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Howyoudoin wrote:
Charlottesquare wrote:
Not so sure you are that generous, you missed out the Nats who are not listed, they are likely to account for a fair chunk of that 4% and will, in the main, be Remain voters.


Interesting that you pulled me up on that missing 4% point rather than the 11% that I gave to remain from Labour.

Just out of interest, do Remainers here consider Labour to be a 'Leave' party or a 'Remain' party.

Seeing as they are negotiating our withdrawal from the EU with the Tories, I thought I was being generous giving remainers half of Labour's 22%.

HYD


The majority of Labour members are in favour of a second referendum and the majority of Labour voters are in favour of remain. However Corbyn's opposition and history of left wing euroscepticism mean that it has to currently counted as supporting brexit despite the majority of its members and voters wishes.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/91806/almost-80-labour-members-want-second

Almost eight in ten Labour members want a second EU referendum, a new poll has suggested.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn

In the 2016 referendum, Labour voters divided 67-33% in favour of remain. According to a recent YouGov survey among more than 25,000 voters, they divide 74-26% for remain, if the 2016 referendum choice were to be rerun. If – as seems more likely – a public vote would pitch remain against Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, the majority among Labour voters widens further, to 82-18% for remain.

The latest YouGov poll, published today, reinforces this point. Just 18% of Labour supporters think the UK was right to vote to leave the EU; 74% say we were wrong. Excluding the don’t knows (8%), the party divides: right 20%, wrong 80%.


So . . . please answer my previous question.

Do Remainers here, on this thread, think Labour are a ‘leave’ party or a ‘remain’ party?

HYD


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