Wizard wrote:NeilW wrote:SteMiS wrote:Again note the words 'new Government'. Again that would be a government different from the existing government.
Again that simply isn't the case in the law. Research briefings are not the law...
I heard another academic on the matter yesterday. She seemed to suggest a three step process, an informal vote of some sort in the Commons (I guess allowed by the Speaker, but it was unclear how this happened) which demonstrated a new Govt. coalition would have the House's confidence, that would force Johnson to resign and recommend a new PM. That new PM invited to form a new Govt. by the Queen, then the new Govt. subjected to the second formal vote envisaged in the FTPA.
The issue is the process by which that 'informal' vote would take place. There are quite defined rules as to who can bring motions before the house. Then there is the subject of who is picked to be the subject of such a vote (the obvious first choice, I suppose would be Corbyn, but failing him, what then?).
Wizard wrote:The one thing she was absolutely explicit about is the Queen will only follow Parliament's lead, she will not try to help them find a way out in an interventionist way.
Yes, parliament's lead. But again the issue is how parliament shows it's lead.
Wizard wrote:If she is right then it really is up to anti no deal MPs to organise themselves. I still think Corbyn will refuse to call a vote unless everyone agrees he is the PM for the coalition and many others will just not accept that. I therefore still have my money on the anti no dealers not even being able to get a no confidence vote called.
I don't think it's ever been in doubt that success rests in the hands of 'no dealers' organising themselves and particularly those who know it will be a disaster but are trying to decide whether to prioritize their principles or their career prospects within their party. I think Corbyn will call a confidence motion and I think there is a reasonable chance of success but what happens thereafter is anyone's guess. Of course he could wait until late enough that any election happens during the turmoil of a no deal exit on the basis that the chance of a Labour victory is thus enhanced.