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The leaving fee?

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Catolivesagin
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Re: The leaving fee?

#80708

Postby Catolivesagin » September 12th, 2017, 7:17 pm

1nv35t wrote:
dspp wrote:This Remainer thinks the Brexit lot broke it, and so it is their responsibility to fix it and own up to it.

Typical. Remainers have sought to hinder/block the democratic choice to the extent of causing breakage, yet lay the responsibility of their actions onto others.


That sound like ‘slopy shoulders’ are being readied. The Referendum just asked one question the Brexit promoters knew there was no detail plan to leave and the process for leaving the EU was laid out in the treaty.

The Government Brexit negotiators include key Tory Brexiteers, Fox, Davis and of course the ‘leader’ of Brexit, Boris. Mrs Leadsom and Gove,the other key Brexit leaders are in the Cabinet . All these Brexiteers have to do is to come up with the proposals which make sense and Parliament will vote them through particularly if there are excellent Brexit benefits which must now be clear in detail to all from Fox’s trips globally.

Since the Referendum Parliament has voted for every Brexit proposal put forward by the Government. Remainers, though complaining, have had no interference with Brexit actions, all major delays have been the responsibility of the Government having another election, delaying A50, and going to court against advice to avoid Parliament approval and then losing.

If Boris and co cock it all up, Boris and co are responsible. The Government have adopted their plan for the negotiations which was agreed with the EU negotiation team. Davis and Boris are holding considerable number of meetings with the EU. The majority of the press is firmly behind Brexit, only fuddy duddy papers like the Times, Guardian, FT and the Mirror have Brexit warning articles and not many read these papers anyway. It is widely believed that the EU is over a barrel in these negotiators, the EU is worried that they will lose the UK market for their goods and the EU export more to us that we export to them. How could negotiations go wrong with such an advantage in favour of the UK? If it does it is because Boris and co sold an idea with no basis in fact or they cocked it up. Corbyn also a Brexiteer cannot be blamed as he has voted with the Government and still wants Brexit for the 'working' man who in the main voted for Brexit

Whatever happens the voters will hold someone and their party to be responsible when Brexit turns out to have no observable benefits or negative effects. I t is sensible to have a Representative Parliament who should be left to decide complex matters. If anyone is unhappy Post-Brexit a solution awaits for Labour, Tory, Liberal and Monster Raving Lunatic voters to make changes. UKIP are dead as a realistic party now.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80711

Postby beeswax » September 12th, 2017, 7:33 pm

Catolivesagin wrote:
1nv35t wrote:
dspp wrote:This Remainer thinks the Brexit lot broke it, and so it is their responsibility to fix it and own up to it.

Typical. Remainers have sought to hinder/block the democratic choice to the extent of causing breakage, yet lay the responsibility of their actions onto others.


That sound like ‘slopy shoulders’ are being readied. The Referendum just asked one question the Brexit promoters knew there was no detail plan to leave and the process for leaving the EU was laid out in the treaty.

Whatever happens the voters will hold someone and their party to be responsible when Brexit turns out to have no observable benefits or negative effects. I t is sensible to have a Representative Parliament who should be left to decide complex matters. If anyone is unhappy Post-Brexit a solution awaits for Labour, Tory, Liberal and Monster Raving Lunatic voters to make changes. UKIP are dead as a realistic party now.


How come the EU had no observable plan for leaving other than we leave after two years and not one mention of a leaving fee or stages that HAD to be agreed before trade talks can be discussed!

This country went into a world war twice in the last hundred years against Germany and so can you advise what were the 'observable' benefits being they have once again emerged financially stronger than anyone else? Wouldn't we all have been better off to have surrendered to them? Even though arguably the other nations in the EU have done so since?

As the Moderator so kindly pointed out that the leaving fee was my OP question and yet so few remainers have answered it other than make irrelevant comments. We are where we are and so YOU are at the negotiating table with Barnier and he insists that no talks on trade until the UK agrees to a substantial leaving fee first? What would YOU do next?

Thanks...;)

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80713

Postby dspp » September 12th, 2017, 7:39 pm

Thank you Cato for saying it better than I could have done.

I personally have done nothing to obstruct the Brexit process. To grade it yes, to obstruct it no. Despite my gravest reservations I am even going ahead with supporting investment in UK manufacturing, investment that would not be happening if I was not working my socks off. Investment that is almost certainly in serious risk because of the Brexit process. Investment on which jobs depend.

Watching Brexit types fleeing the scene (literally in some cases), avoiding responsibility, engaging in wilful misrepresentation, and in serious misunderstanding of the economic reality in front of us all does not fill me with confidence. Being personally attacked by Brexiteers simply because they don't like my analysis of the risks is disappointing. And I haven't noticed many of them putting their own skin in the game by the way.

If I was at the table with Barnier I'd start by apologising to the EU in public for my peer-group Brexiteers. Then I'd ask the EC to set out the financial process that they would find fair. I'd also make clear that I would be seeking full EEA/EFTA + ECJ membership for an indefinite period, during which UK would negotiate no other trade agreements. (that would resolve the NI issue btw). I would finish by apologising to the UK for not being able to deliver on the fantasies and the lies that Brexiteers peddled pre referendum and I would suggest that the UK holds another referendum now that a taste of the reality is happening. But I am not at the table and it is for the Brexiteers to fix this. Over to you. Don't shirk or shrink.

regards, dspp

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80745

Postby dspp » September 12th, 2017, 9:57 pm

1nv35t wrote:So you'd impose your own will over that of the democratically voted choice. Hmm! Yes the referendum was advisory, but one that was respected and voted through both houses and A50 submitted accordingly..


Nonsense.

1. The referendum was re EU membership. My proposal respects that. I will not be held hostage by imaginings re what was on the ballot paper, only what was actually on the ballot paper.

2. I've bothered to put an answer down, acknowledging the reality of the boundary conditions. Not fantasy land. Don't like it, then crack on and accept the consequences. Are you sure you understand them ? Really understand them ?

3. As a manufacturer and despite being a Remainer I'm bothering to put my skin in the UK game despite manifest gross stupidities of the Brexiteers. All I see around here in the Brexit camp are a bunch of financial types fleeing the scene and similar. What risks are you all taking to keep the UK in the game ? Getting new passports ? Putting your pensions on the line ? Splitting your ISAs up between several accounts just in case ? Do tell.

regards, dspp

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80748

Postby beeswax » September 12th, 2017, 10:07 pm

dspp wrote:
1nv35t wrote:So you'd impose your own will over that of the democratically voted choice. Hmm! Yes the referendum was advisory, but one that was respected and voted through both houses and A50 submitted accordingly..


Nonsense.

1. The referendum was re EU membership. My proposal respects that. I will not be held hostage by imaginings re what was on the ballot paper, only what was actually on the ballot paper.

2. I've bothered to put an answer down, acknowledging the reality of the boundary conditions. Not fantasy land. Don't like it, then crack on and accept the consequences. Are you sure you understand them ? Really understand them ?

3. As a manufacturer and despite being a Remainer I'm bothering to put my skin in the UK game despite manifest gross stupidities of the Brexiteers. All I see around here in the Brexit camp are a bunch of financial types fleeing the scene and similar. What risks are you all taking to keep the UK in the game ? Getting new passports ? Putting your pensions on the line ? Splitting your ISAs up between several accounts just in case ? Do tell.

regards, dspp


No remainer is accepting the result of the referendum if they are advocating remaining in the single market or the customs union or any Norway type deal that keeps the EU monster in our midst. Leave means leave and that is what most people think should happen and please as most are again forgetting this. The UK is the EU's second highest export market and so whatever arrangements are decided will affect them more than it will us purely on the simple fact of the balance of trade. All the obstacles are not the UK but the EU...by making trade a condition of enslavement to their political ambitions. You don't apologise to the Slave Master when you have put in 375 thousand million pounds since we joined, have freed that continent twice in a 100 years in war then to be insulted by some Frenchi dictating the agenda...No thanks and no leaving fee is my recommendation. Anything else is a betrayal of this great Nation..

BTW, I don't rule out that our weak kneed political class will bend to their wishes once again as they have done time and again since we joined...They are great at betraying our country but you will never see them defend it with a rifle like millions have before them. A bunch of Neville Chamberlains we have had....Will Teresa May, join the list? We shall see?

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80766

Postby Sundance13 » September 13th, 2017, 5:44 am

1nv35t wrote:
dspp wrote:My proposal respects that. I will not be held hostage by imaginings re what was on the ballot paper, only what was actually on the ballot paper.

Leaving the Single Market (or as the EU also define it within its treaties 'internal market') ... was implicit. "Leave the EU" (as per the ballot paper) and as per Article 50 you are freed of its treaties (laws) after the 2 year notice period and hence outside of its internal (single) market. All lead campaigners from both sides made it perfectly clear that a vote to leave the EU was also a vote to be out of the single market, no more oft repeated during the campaign than by Cameron. A minority have attempted to hostage the majority by various means such as legal contest, protests and suggestion that the vote was not for what all parties proclaimed it to represent, but something else.

Any country that's not subject to trade sanctions has access to that internal/single market, but to varying degrees. Pay enough and agree to be bound by its laws along with free movement of people ...etc. and access can be total (Norway). Or there's the Swiss style, bilateral agreements, bound by laws and accepting free movement but not having full access to the EU's banking sector. Or there's the third country type access such as the US where it sells into/buys from the single market - but there are no common safety standards for goods and tariffs and quotas may be imposed on its products.

As we're leaving the EU and under EU law cannot formalise any trade treaties until after we've left, we will fall into the 'third' country (US for example style) category until such times that a treaty might subsequently be agreed between the UK and the EU. Opting for either Norway or Switzerland style re-entry back into the control by the EU however, under most likely worst terms than before when we were in that EU ... doubt there'd be much inclination towards that. Any associate member will be disadvantaged compared to a full member, too high a price for too little in return. Better to just reciprocate and more any barriers the EU puts up from UK access to their internal market and focus trade elsewhere around the world. The UK is the EU's largest single country export market (just ahead of the US), but a relatively small percentage of its total export market. The EU is a significant part of existing UK export market ... which either way is set to decline. That in itself is a de-risking exercise as its never good to be too reliant on any one thing. Transitional economic costs will be involved but that has the capacity to be a short sharp drop followed by a rapid/strong rebound, potentially to higher levels than before given the greater degrees of UK control over such terms/conditions (agreed one on one rather than across many often with conflicts of interest). Compared to some how retaining access, in on the outskirts, dictated to/controlled, disadvantaged compared to full members (Eurozone) and the former (totally out and focusing trade elsewhere) has the better upside potential and mid to longer term lower risk. That perhaps ranks second however to had we opted to fully merge into the EU (adopt the Euro, retire Parliament to being a regional assembly ...etc.). That however was not offered as a referendum option and I very much suspect that if a referendum were held for such it would not secure a majority vote outcome. You never know however and if Brexit is a total disaster then the UK could break up into its component parts and individually apply to join the EU as separate member states. Such division (divide and conquer) is I suspect foremost in the EU's mind and accordingly it will strive to create a Brexit disaster. Its only right that we in return should pull together and give the opportunity a try before resigning ... or prevailing. It would be simply wrong to throw in the towel without having given opportunity a fair go, and many perceive that the UK will make a success out of such opportunities. Ban German cars for instance and Japan can easily fill the gap on that front. UK financials may very well suffer but the economy was perhaps over-weighted in that respect anyway. Paramount is not to show weakness and intentionally distance ourselves asap, focusing efforts elsewhere around the world. Hurt the EU as much as it intends to hurt us, primarily by targeting barriers to Ireland and Germany in the first instance. President Trump dislikes Germany's unfair advantage (exploitation of the rest of Europe) and could very well be supportive of such action. Yet again for the third time in a around a century is the UK on the front line in having to take down German political expansion agenda, but this time around that being more aligned to a non-military action.



That maybe your interpretation but didn't one of the 2 main Leave groups want to stay in the single market as part of their Flexit strategy?

The other Leave campaign also said we'd get all the single market benefits we get now as they sell more to us than we do to them.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80769

Postby johnhemming » September 13th, 2017, 6:50 am

UKIP used to argue for leaving the EU and being in the EEA as a transitional step. I think I kept a copy of that somewhere, but have not found it yet.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80785

Postby beeswax » September 13th, 2017, 9:13 am

johnhemming wrote:UKIP used to argue for leaving the EU and being in the EEA as a transitional step. I think I kept a copy of that somewhere, but have not found it yet.


Some were arguing for that but only as a transition to full exit and as most thought people would be scared to vote leave based on the fear strategy of the remain side, came up with these parallel ideas that could amount to leaving the EU but to retain access to the single market. A sensible fall back strategy and that indeed may well be the case if the politicians weaken.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80798

Postby melonfool » September 13th, 2017, 9:42 am

beeswax wrote:
johnhemming wrote:UKIP used to argue for leaving the EU and being in the EEA as a transitional step. I think I kept a copy of that somewhere, but have not found it yet.


Some were arguing for that but only as a transition to full exit and as most thought people would be scared to vote leave based on the fear strategy of the remain side, came up with these parallel ideas that could amount to leaving the EU but to retain access to the single market. A sensible fall back strategy and that indeed may well be the case if the politicians weaken.


They lied then?

Mel

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80801

Postby Catolivesagin » September 13th, 2017, 9:56 am

beeswax wrote:
johnhemming wrote:UKIP used to argue for leaving the EU and being in the EEA as a transitional step. I think I kept a copy of that somewhere, but have not found it yet.


Some were arguing for that but only as a transition to full exit and as most thought people would be scared to vote leave based on the fear strategy of the remain side, came up with these parallel ideas that could amount to leaving the EU but to retain access to the single market. A sensible fall back strategy and that indeed may well be the case if the politicians weaken.


I think you will find that Brexit was supported for many reasons which is why Corby and Farage could both advocate it. Their reasons of course we not mutually compatible. The Brexiteers generally just promised a list of goodies with no costs attached and no coherent way of delivering them if that was ideed possible. The solution was said to be identofied by Parliament after the result of the Referendum was known, be very straightforward and the EU would soon crash anyway.

Post Referendum there is no way can the expectations of Brexit be delivered, Brexit was a recipe for chaos. So the only thing than can be delivered is to leave of the EU, so be outside the treaty at minimum cost to the UK. No Government or party wants to be seen to responsible for chaos, that is the oppositions responsibility.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80811

Postby Sundance13 » September 13th, 2017, 10:11 am

beeswax wrote:
johnhemming wrote:UKIP used to argue for leaving the EU and being in the EEA as a transitional step. I think I kept a copy of that somewhere, but have not found it yet.


Some were arguing for that but only as a transition to full exit and as most thought people would be scared to vote leave based on the fear strategy of the remain side, came up with these parallel ideas that could amount to leaving the EU but to retain access to the single market. A sensible fall back strategy and that indeed may well be the case if the politicians weaken.


Sorry Beeswax that's factually incorrect. Flexcit was adopted by Leave.EU as their official policy, it wasn't s fallback strategy or a strategy to attract voters scared by the Remain campaign. It was a strategy that recognised the reality it will take time for Britain to fully disentangle itself from Europe, so we should retain EEA membership and in fact use this membership and our influence to push for a more democratic, trading focussed EU 'village'.

To repeat, this was the strategy of one of the two main Leave organisations, so it's factually incorrect to say there was a consensus that a vote to leave the EU, was a vote to leave the single market. This isn't to say that I don't agree with Leave voters who say to truly leave the EU you must also leave the single market/customs union, but given the split in the Leave camp on exit strategy, the referendum result does not necessitate it, as all we factually know to be correct is that the Leave camp were divided on exit strategy and 52% of people voted to leave the EU.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85981

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80822

Postby SteMiS » September 13th, 2017, 10:50 am

During the EU referendum campaign, when Brexit supporters on TMF and elsewhere were pressed on the details of what would follow 'leave', often the answer was that it would depend on what the people and parliament subsequently wanted. That's why there was no detailed specification. Indeed Leave supporters themselves had different views on what would follow. Now Hard Brexiteers are trying to claim that 'Leave' always mean't leaving the single market and customs union. Sorry, that might be your view, and even what you always wanted, but you've no mandate to claim that from the referendum. If it had been an explicit condition of 'Leave' then the official campaign should have issued a detailed manifesto setting that out. I think we all know why they didn't...

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80860

Postby Catolivesagin » September 13th, 2017, 2:46 pm

1nv35t wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:so it's factually incorrect to say there was a consensus that a vote to leave the EU, was a vote to leave the single market.

The Single Market is defined as the Internal Market within EU treaties. You cannot be out of the EU but in its internal market. Out of the EU is out of its internal market. From the outside you can have access to that market at different levels according to whether you're prepared to accept EU laws taking precedence over your own and/or open borders, and how much you are prepared to pay. Even then however you're at a disadvantage to those on the inside (Eurozone) who get first choice and you are subject to what access is permitted, Switzerland for instance is restricted as to its Banking access.

The Referendum history only matters for those to be blamed if there are no benefits and only losses from Brexit.

The fact that nobody still has any idea what our Government wants from the EU and the outlook for the next few years seems to be ‘remain in the single market and customs union but we are outside the EU’. I suspect most MPs are expecting the EU agreement to be worse than before. Who can blame the more intelligent MPs for preparing their own chain mail. Has Fox done any work of value?

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80865

Postby dspp » September 13th, 2017, 3:11 pm

1nv35t wrote: If the UK is to sustain we should equally look to hurt the EU (ban/block EU imports), redirect 400 nukes towards major EU cities and stand firm.


.... it's nice to be alongside such gentle peace-loving neighbours

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80866

Postby beeswax » September 13th, 2017, 3:22 pm

Catolivesagin wrote:
1nv35t wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:so it's factually incorrect to say there was a consensus that a vote to leave the EU, was a vote to leave the single market.

The Single Market is defined as the Internal Market within EU treaties. You cannot be out of the EU but in its internal market. Out of the EU is out of its internal market. From the outside you can have access to that market at different levels according to whether you're prepared to accept EU laws taking precedence over your own and/or open borders, and how much you are prepared to pay. Even then however you're at a disadvantage to those on the inside (Eurozone) who get first choice and you are subject to what access is permitted, Switzerland for instance is restricted as to its Banking access.

The Referendum history only matters for those to be blamed if there are no benefits and only losses from Brexit.

The fact that nobody still has any idea what our Government wants from the EU and the outlook for the next few years seems to be ‘remain in the single market and customs union but we are outside the EU’. I suspect most MPs are expecting the EU agreement to be worse than before. Who can blame the more intelligent MPs for preparing their own chain mail. Has Fox done any work of value?


Dear me...how many times are remainers going to whinge on about the UK has no idea about what we want from the EU?

OK, here it is again for the one hundredth time...

The UK wants a close trading relationship with the EU without tariffs or customs checks on goods arriving AND leaving...THAT IS IT IN A NUT SHELL!

We don't want or need anything else. So how can it be worse than before when we get control of our laws, our borders and our money and of course get to decide who we want to come here and to get rid of the ones we don't. We can agree trade deals with whom the hell we want to.

Sovereignty is not something you can put a price on it anyway albeit the remainers once again keep saying we haven't lost any...

NOW my dear remainer friends, its up to the EU as whether they want us to have a that trade deal or not and not us and so go and advise the EU on their equivalent TLF what THEY need to do...The evidence so far is they want to punish us for leaving and they will try every trick in the book to do that even if it means their trade will suffer too if they get their way.

I ask the remainers once again including the poster above the OP question. Will you give the EU what it wants as a leaving fee BEFORE they will move onto stage 2?

IF the EU don't want this trading relationship then the government has no real choice but to leave without a deal and go to WTO rules which according to some, will result in us gaining more than the EU does because they sell us a lot more. Unless the EU puts a blockade on the channel ports whichno doubt some in the EU would love to do...So once again, the ball is in THEIR court and not ours. I would expect the PM to tell them this shortly.
Last edited by beeswax on September 13th, 2017, 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80867

Postby johnhemming » September 13th, 2017, 3:27 pm

beeswax wrote:I ask the remainers once again including the poster above the OP question. Will you give the EU what it wants as a leaving fee BEFORE they will move onto stage 2?

I read again today that it is an overall package. Hence we can make it clear in the negotiations that it is the package of leaving and then future arrangements that we will agreed.

Obviously it is a bad negotiating tactic to give them a load of cash and then have a complete separate arrangement which does not include the payment.

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80870

Postby beeswax » September 13th, 2017, 3:34 pm

johnhemming wrote:
beeswax wrote:I ask the remainers once again including the poster above the OP question. Will you give the EU what it wants as a leaving fee BEFORE they will move onto stage 2?

I read again today that it is an overall package. Hence we can make it clear in the negotiations that it is the package of leaving and then future arrangements that we will agreed.

Obviously it is a bad negotiating tactic to give them a load of cash and then have a complete separate arrangement which does not include the payment.


Thank you John, that is why we are where we are with the negotiations and why UNLESS the EU negotiators are told to be more flexible on this matter, we cannot move on to stage 2. In fairness David Davis said at the beginning that nothing can be agreed until all is agreed. Now it could be that a leaving fee in principle could be agreed on that basis I don't know and the leaving fee amount is still highly relevant as whether even that could get through parliament?

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80888

Postby DiamondEcho » September 13th, 2017, 4:28 pm

beeswax wrote:Unless the EU puts a blockade on the channel ports which no doubt some in the EU would love to do...


Which reminded me of the reality of the current situation and this historic headline [Wiki]:

'An apocryphal British newspaper headline supposedly once read, "Fog in Channel; Continent Cut Off".

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80895

Postby dspp » September 13th, 2017, 4:53 pm

beeswax wrote:OK, here it is again for the one hundredth time...

The UK wants a close trading relationship with the EU without tariffs or customs checks on goods arriving AND leaving...THAT IS IT IN A NUT SHELL!.......

I would expect the PM to tell them this shortly.


In case you hadn't noticed the answer to that little lot is no.

Keep wearing those rose tinted glasses. The sun set on the Empire a long time ago.

Ever closer union. Not a bad thing. Can't think why the U part of the UK is looking a bit wobbly.

regards, dspp

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Re: The leaving fee?

#80916

Postby SalvorHardin » September 13th, 2017, 6:18 pm

dspp wrote:As a manufacturer and despite being a Remainer I'm bothering to put my skin in the UK game despite manifest gross stupidities of the Brexiteers. All I see around here in the Brexit camp are a bunch of financial types fleeing the scene and similar. What risks are you all taking to keep the UK in the game ? Getting new passports ? Putting your pensions on the line ? Splitting your ISAs up between several accounts just in case ? Do tell.

regards, dspp

Yes that's me. Financial type, been retired ridiculously early for 14 years, one percenter by wealth, viscerally opposed to the EU ever since it came into being on the grounds of the loss of control over our laws (as per Tony Benn's argument), legal system and that our membership breaches The Bill of Rights. I have no pensions of any great worth, most of my income and assets are overseas, no income from the UK state, passports and overseas escape route (Canada) are already sorted. ISAs have long needed more than "several" accounts just in case.

Risks taken to keep the UK "in the game" - well I do have some fairly substantial holdings in a few UK-based companies (six figures worth in two of them). But then I don't happen to believe that WTO default hard Brexit will be all that bad for the UK so I'm not all that worried. I remember the scaremongering over our not entering the Euro - the consensus forecast disaster never materialised.

Many of the remainers' claims remind me of that period (where's the recession and collapsing house prices that George Osborne said would happen if we voted to leave?). The recent strength in sterling seems to have been completely ignored by the remainer media, presumably because it doesn't fit the narrative.

As far as I am concerned the EU has shown such staggering bad faith in the negotiations over the exit fee, with a suspiciously round figure of 100 billion Euros, that they can sod off. They're behaving like a mobster demanding protection money and are already in breach of Article 50 Treaty of Lisbon by refusing to discuss trade. Then again at the moment we're only negotiating with the monkey - the organ grinder is currently contesting the German election.

In July 2016 I'd have been happy with a Norway-style EEA exit. Now after experiencing more than a year of remainer abuse directed at Brexiteers generally (and myself personally) I favour the hardest of Brexits - no exit fee and which causes Guardian bedwetting types to wail for their safe spaces. I'd even favour a bit of sabre rattling using NATO by arguing that Germany (and some others) owe NATO money because they've been skimping on their NATO commitments.


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