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Galileo and Brexit

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dspp
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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128914

Postby dspp » March 29th, 2018, 9:11 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
dspp wrote:one does also need to bear in mind the potential defence & security implications. In that area there is an old saying "the only thing more expensive than fighting a war, is losing a war".

regards, dspp


Future wars between first world nations, if there is ever one again because they are so interlinked from globalisation, will be fought technically. Take away a country's internet access and they will roll over in a couple of days as society breaks down.


Did you reach that conclusion before, or after, Russia invaded first Georgia and then Ukraine ? Before, or after, China built the Spratly etc positions ? Before, or after, Russia poisoned Litvinenko & Skripal, and etc.....

- dspp

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128923

Postby XFool » March 29th, 2018, 10:21 pm

Ashfordian wrote:
dspp wrote:one does also need to bear in mind the potential defence & security implications. In that area there is an old saying "the only thing more expensive than fighting a war, is losing a war".

That you are willing to post about the risk of a war within the 28 demonstrates how out of touch your thinking is.

"within the 28"? Oh! You think Global Positioning Systems only work inside the borders of the nation that originates the system? GPS only works in the USA, Glosnass only works in Russia and Galileo will only work in the EU? (So bad luck UK drivers!)

How droll... :)

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128981

Postby ursaminortaur » March 30th, 2018, 11:17 am

1nv35t wrote:
There will be no war between the nations in the rEU

15 EU nations/countries combined population is less than the population of the UK. Many are land locked, surrounded by other EU members. Individual towns/cities in UK scale, little capability of individually going to war with others.


The population in Europe is much greater than it was before the first world war and the geography hasn't changed much - then it just took the assassination of an Archduke to trigger a conflict engulfing the whole continent/whole world.
More recently did the relatively small size of Yugloslavia stop that region from descending into conflict ?

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128994

Postby Catolivesagin » March 30th, 2018, 12:21 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
1nv35t wrote:
There will be no war between the nations in the rEU

15 EU nations/countries combined population is less than the population of the UK. Many are land locked, surrounded by other EU members. Individual towns/cities in UK scale, little capability of individually going to war with others.


The population in Europe is much greater than it was before the first world war and the geography hasn't changed much - then it just took the assassination of an Archduke to trigger a conflict engulfing the whole continent/whole world.
More recently did the relatively small size of Yugloslavia stop that region from descending into conflict ?



The UK with an Army strength in the region of about 75,000 is too small to go to war with anyone. We can do a lot of damage but to maintain control on the ground taken? Forget it. Our military could not maintain control in NI very well, we did not 'lose' that conflict neither did we 'win' it. a result which still has ramifications for the UK and Brexit

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128995

Postby redsturgeon » March 30th, 2018, 12:48 pm

Moderator Message:
Interesting though it may be, we are straying off topic here. Please start another thread if you wish to debate the possibility of war in the EU

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#128996

Postby vrdiver » March 30th, 2018, 1:06 pm

Moderator Message:
See my message in the previous post

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#129639

Postby dspp » April 3rd, 2018, 10:02 am

For those of you with an interest in the growing defence & security aspects of the EU:

EU unveils military mobility plan to accelerate pan-European deployments
The European Commission on 28 March unveiled its new “Action Plan on Military Mobility” to support NATO’s domestic rapid reaction capability and the EU’s ability to deploy abroad. The compactly-worded, 11-page document points to a huge array of co-ordination in the years ahead among the European Commission, NATO, the European Defence Agency, and national governments across the EU, as well as to billions of euros in prioritised investment to create or modify transport infrastructure for dual-use purposes.

“This is not ‘military Schengen’ because it is for all the member states to implement,” Violeta Bulc, European Commissioner for transport, told reporters in Brussels when presenting the plan.

http://www.janes.com/article/78951/eu-u ... eployments

European Defence Fund launches its first large-scale research project
The European Commission signed off with an industry-led consortium on 28 March for the first major EU-funded defence research project – a harbinger of many more to come once the EU’s European Defence Fund (EDF) reaches full cruising speed after 2020. With a grant of EUR35 million (USD43 million), the two-year project, dubbed OCEAN2020, will test the integration of surface and underwater unmanned vehicles with the manned platforms of various navies across the European Union to boost maritime situational awareness.

“Such projects will help lay the foundation for Europe’s future defence capabilities and a stronger defence industry,” Elżbieta Bieńkowska, commissioner for the single market, told attendees and reporters during signing ceremonies in Brussels.

http://www.janes.com/article/78953/euro ... ch-project

For Mod info those are the freely quotable bits from Janes, so OK for reposting.

regards, dspp

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134679

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 12:44 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43891933

The UK is considering plans to launch a satellite navigation system as a rival to the EU's Galileo project.

The move comes after the UK was told it would be shut out of key elements of the programme after Brexit.

The UK has spent 1,4bn euros (£1.2bn) on Galileo, which is meant to be Europe's answer to the US GPS system.


etc .....

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134686

Postby ursaminortaur » April 25th, 2018, 1:07 pm

dspp wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43891933

The UK is considering plans to launch a satellite navigation system as a rival to the EU's Galileo project.

The move comes after the UK was told it would be shut out of key elements of the programme after Brexit.

The UK has spent 1,4bn euros (£1.2bn) on Galileo, which is meant to be Europe's answer to the US GPS system.


etc .....



This idea was raised when the issue first came to light

https://www.ft.com/content/80dd2f68-3031-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498


The UK defence department is having “early discussions” on whether Britain could launch its own satellite system to end its dependence on the US system and avert exclusion from the Galileo military application. “It would be hugely expensive — our priority is to sort this out with Brussels,” the official added.


Most people I think dismissed it as a serious proposal then - the fact it is being raised again suggests that attempts to "sort it out with Brussels" aren't going too well.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134715

Postby ursaminortaur » April 25th, 2018, 2:51 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
dspp wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43891933

The UK is considering plans to launch a satellite navigation system as a rival to the EU's Galileo project.

The move comes after the UK was told it would be shut out of key elements of the programme after Brexit.

The UK has spent 1,4bn euros (£1.2bn) on Galileo, which is meant to be Europe's answer to the US GPS system.


etc .....



This idea was raised when the issue first came to light

https://www.ft.com/content/80dd2f68-3031-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498


The UK defence department is having “early discussions” on whether Britain could launch its own satellite system to end its dependence on the US system and avert exclusion from the Galileo military application. “It would be hugely expensive — our priority is to sort this out with Brussels,” the official added.


Most people I think dismissed it as a serious proposal then - the fact it is being raised again suggests that attempts to "sort it out with Brussels" aren't going too well.



https://www.ft.com/content/f2440686-47ce-11e8-8ae9-4b5ddcca99b3


As part of its rearguard actions to reverse the EU’s decision, Britain is preparing to block the approval of procurement for the next batch of Galileo satellites, designed as a rival to the Pentagon’s GPS system, at a Berlin meeting of the European Space Agency council on Wednesday. The plan must be approved unanimously by ESA member states. A previous vote was postponed at the last minute in March as the row over UK involvement in the secure elements of Galileo spiralled. A UK government official warned that if the vote went ahead, “we will vote against”.


How to win friends and influence people - not.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134721

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 3:15 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
ursaminortaur wrote:
dspp wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43891933

The UK is considering plans to launch a satellite navigation system as a rival to the EU's Galileo project.

The move comes after the UK was told it would be shut out of key elements of the programme after Brexit.

The UK has spent 1,4bn euros (£1.2bn) on Galileo, which is meant to be Europe's answer to the US GPS system.


etc .....



This idea was raised when the issue first came to light

https://www.ft.com/content/80dd2f68-3031-11e8-b5bf-23cb17fd1498


The UK defence department is having “early discussions” on whether Britain could launch its own satellite system to end its dependence on the US system and avert exclusion from the Galileo military application. “It would be hugely expensive — our priority is to sort this out with Brussels,” the official added.


Most people I think dismissed it as a serious proposal then - the fact it is being raised again suggests that attempts to "sort it out with Brussels" aren't going too well.



https://www.ft.com/content/f2440686-47ce-11e8-8ae9-4b5ddcca99b3


As part of its rearguard actions to reverse the EU’s decision, Britain is preparing to block the approval of procurement for the next batch of Galileo satellites, designed as a rival to the Pentagon’s GPS system, at a Berlin meeting of the European Space Agency council on Wednesday. The plan must be approved unanimously by ESA member states. A previous vote was postponed at the last minute in March as the row over UK involvement in the secure elements of Galileo spiralled. A UK government official warned that if the vote went ahead, “we will vote against”.


How to win friends and influence people - not.


Exactly. All that will cause is to :
1) remind people of Cameron's toy-chucking blocking period that ended so well.
2) cause EU to count down to the day that UK is out the door, and then assign the contracts anywhere but the UK.
3) never let UK industry into anything on equal terms again.
4) and quietly reach for the next big ticket item on the defence/aerospace projects list and cross all UK participation off it. Hence RR and Bae relocating as we watch .....

great diplomacy, great sheeple voters, great endings, in fact not great at all.
- dspp

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134730

Postby Sorcery » April 25th, 2018, 4:12 pm

dspp wrote:Exactly. All that will cause is to :
1) remind people of Cameron's toy-chucking blocking period that ended so well.
2) cause EU to count down to the day that UK is out the door, and then assign the contracts anywhere but the UK.
3) never let UK industry into anything on equal terms again.
4) and quietly reach for the next big ticket item on the defence/aerospace projects list and cross all UK participation off it. Hence RR and Bae relocating as we watch .....

great diplomacy, great sheeple voters, great endings, in fact not great at all.


This is a perfect example of how remainers blame all things on Brexit or our government rather than where it should be, on the EU.
The UK has contributed £1.3 billion to this project and now the EU turns round and says we can't be trusted with it.
One wonders what mental gymnastics got them into that position? We are a nuclear power, one of the 5 eyes (the EU has none), and fully contribute to NATO.
This is the EU throwing it's toys out of the pram and typifies why Brexiteers were correct in their assessment of the EU as a power hungry, unaccountable, childish, petulant entity that we should extract ourselves from asap.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134732

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 4:31 pm

If you don't understand then go read the treaties. It was all there in advance. Not in, is out. Rule taker, not rule maker. Pay, no say. This is a classic example of Brexiteers wishing to live in a la la land where the natives do as the sahib says. If you insist on moving out of the bungalow into the hut then don't expect to get access to the silver canteen.

But you are absolutely right it will - already has - real consequences. Ask anyone working on (or bidding for) EU projects. Like this one ....

regards, dspp

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134735

Postby Sorcery » April 25th, 2018, 4:38 pm

Ok dspp perhaps you can tell me which treaties apply here?
Any joint development such as Galileo which has Morocco & the Ukraine in it, also China until 2006, is hardly going to be top secret, or have EU treaties apply ?
With respect I think you are a likely candidate for an abusive relationship. Step 1 fail to recognise you are in one.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... avigation/

Regards
Sorcery

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134751

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 5:42 pm

Sorcery wrote:Ok dspp perhaps you can tell me which treaties apply here?
Any joint development such as Galileo which has Morocco & the Ukraine in it, also China until 2006, is hardly going to be top secret, or have EU treaties apply ?

Regards
Sorcery


Wiki is your friend if you take a peek. "ESA in its current form was founded with the ESA Convention in 1975." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_ ... Foundation

In this instance (i.e. Galileo) ESA is supplying services to the EU, and is subject to all the EU treaties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_( ... navigation)#Funding_again,_governance_issues

Worth reading through the ElReg comments.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/2 ... o_project/

It is up to the EU how and what they instruct ESA to behave. If you think that China, USA, etc will be given the crypto keys to the inner operational workings I really can't help you. Just because the UK can write crypto doesn't mean the EU will allow the UK to write the crypto, in fact the whole point is that the EU will not, and has every right to say so. These are dual use technologies and people are quite right to be careful. Once the knowledge base has moved outside the UK then it will be even more costly for the UK to stay in the game as the UK will have to replicate the same functionality, with the same cost base, but a very much smaller user base.

Leaving the EU is a very expensive and risky endeavour that is likely to result in higher UK costs for less output in almost every imaginable sphere. Including defence & security, but by no means restricted to it. How bad it gets is entirely up to the UK, but if May does not cross out some red lines, or is not removed from office, then it could get pretty bad indeed. All self-inflicted abuse, nothing to do with me.

regards, dspp

PS. I have old friends and colleagues working on this & these. In fact we even did the crypto classes together a very long time ago. It is very sad to watch the destruction of the UK's position in this and many other fields.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134755

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 5:58 pm

PPS. It is worth keeping an eye on the manoeuvring for the German Tornado replacement. Rejecting F35 for Typhoon means it is more likely that Airbus/Dassault will do a follow-on post-Typhoon EuroJV for FCAS/whatever. That's very relevant to whether Europe keeps an autonomous high-end mil-industrial base. In a post-Brexit world the UK's firms and people are on the menu, not at the table.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134758

Postby Sorcery » April 25th, 2018, 6:22 pm

dspp wrote:Worth reading through the ElReg comments.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/2 ... o_project/

It is up to the EU how and what they instruct ESA to behave. If you think that China, USA, etc will be given the crypto keys to the inner operational workings I really can't help you. Just because the UK can write crypto doesn't mean the EU will allow the UK to write the crypto, in fact the whole point is that the EU will not, and has every right to say so. These are dual use technologies and people are quite right to be careful. Once the knowledge base has moved outside the UK then it will be even more costly for the UK to stay in the game as the UK will have to replicate the same functionality, with the same cost base, but a very much smaller user base.

Leaving the EU is a very expensive and risky endeavour that is likely to result in higher UK costs for less output in almost every imaginable sphere. Including defence & security, but by no means restricted to it. How bad it gets is entirely up to the UK, but if May does not cross out some red lines, or is not removed from office, then it could get pretty bad indeed. All self-inflicted abuse, nothing to do with me.

regards, dspp

PS. I have old friends and colleagues working on this & these. In fact we even did the crypto classes together a very long time ago. It is very sad to watch the destruction of the UK's position in this and many other fields.


I agree that abuse in a relationship is a a serious issue. That's why I want to leave the EU :)
Perhaps you think that having paid a lion's share of this project, and having voted to leave the EU, this treatment of the UK is fair and reasonable?
This project matters for defence reasons amongst other things. So what should our response be? It seems sensible that the response is also defence related, an area where we pay more than any other EU nation, punch well above our weight and where every other EU nation bar France spends a pitiful amount and hang on our and the US coat tails.
See what happened there, we can save money by defending Europe as much as they are willing to defend themselves & spend it on ourselves or perhaps a IsaacNewton project of our own.

I feel fairly certain that when we get our £1.2 billion back from the EU that we have invested in the Galileo project we could replicate it for that.
All the design stuff has been done after all, we just nick it as they trying to do with our £1.2 billion.

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134761

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 6:47 pm

Sorcery wrote:
dspp wrote:It is up to the EU how and what they instruct ESA to behave. If you think that China, USA, etc will be given the crypto keys to the inner operational workings I really can't help you. Just because the UK can write crypto doesn't mean the EU will allow the UK to write the crypto, in fact the whole point is that the EU will not, and has every right to say so. These are dual use technologies and people are quite right to be careful. Once the knowledge base has moved outside the UK then it will be even more costly for the UK to stay in the game as the UK will have to replicate the same functionality, with the same cost base, but a very much smaller user base.


I agree that abuse in a relationship is a a serious issue. That's why I want to leave the EU :)
Perhaps you think that having paid a lion's share of this project, and having voted to leave the EU, this treatment of the UK is fair and reasonable?
This project matters for defence reasons amongst other things. So what should our response be? It seems sensible that the response is also defence related, an area where we pay more than any other EU nation, punch well above our weight and where every other EU nation bar France spends a pitiful amount and hang on our and the US coat tails.
See what happened there, we can save money by defending Europe as much as they are willing to defend themselves & spend it on ourselves or perhaps a IsaacNewton project of our own.

I feel fairly certain that when we get our £1.2 billion back from the EU that we have invested in the Galileo project we could replicate it for that.
All the design stuff has been done after all, we just nick it as they trying to do with our £1.2 billion.


mmmmm .......

As far as I can see the pro-Brexit lot decided to end a relationship without reading the pre-nup. That's fine provided the Brexiteers are up for the consequences.

In this case the remainder of the family are quite understandably saying that the UK is welcome to leave, as that is a right in the pre-nup. But those Galileo contracts for the interesting inner-workings are no longer a concern of the UK's, again per the pre-nup. The UK of course will not get any money back, because there is no money back clause on work done to date, again per the pre-nup.

If as a consequence the UK chooses to withdraw from future Galileo work, and/or other ESA work then that is also the UK's sovereign choice. But I am pretty sure you will struggle to get full Galileo functionality for £1.2bn (and of course that will be new money, not returned money). Instead there will be a need to join with others to do anything equivalent in functionality. Hence of course the UK defence/aerospace community schmoozing Japan, South Korea, and (until recently) Turkey to try and create other non-traditional options. The Australians meanwhile long ago went the US route, or more recently the French one. Or you can be a US vassal state.

Turning to other defence matters are you suggesting that UK withdraws from NATO ? If not then there's not much else to discuss, as the UK has already - as a natural consequence of these pesky red lines that are easy to spout / harder to undo - withdrawn from the EU battlegroup command slot (https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa ... nse-force/). I don't think the Atlanta and Sophia notifications have yet been served but the equivalents can't be that far away if not.

The hard Brexit road could be very hard indeed. And this Remainer thinks the EU is quite correct to be holding firm. I wouldn't have it any other way. You break it, you own it. Expensive isn't it ?

regards, dspp

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134764

Postby Sorcery » April 25th, 2018, 7:31 pm

dspp wrote:
Sorcery wrote:
dspp wrote:It is up to the EU how and what they instruct ESA to behave. If you think that China, USA, etc will be given the crypto keys to the inner operational workings I really can't help you. Just because the UK can write crypto doesn't mean the EU will allow the UK to write the crypto, in fact the whole point is that the EU will not, and has every right to say so. These are dual use technologies and people are quite right to be careful. Once the knowledge base has moved outside the UK then it will be even more costly for the UK to stay in the game as the UK will have to replicate the same functionality, with the same cost base, but a very much smaller user base.


I agree that abuse in a relationship is a a serious issue. That's why I want to leave the EU :)
Perhaps you think that having paid a lion's share of this project, and having voted to leave the EU, this treatment of the UK is fair and reasonable?
This project matters for defence reasons amongst other things. So what should our response be? It seems sensible that the response is also defence related, an area where we pay more than any other EU nation, punch well above our weight and where every other EU nation bar France spends a pitiful amount and hang on our and the US coat tails.
See what happened there, we can save money by defending Europe as much as they are willing to defend themselves & spend it on ourselves or perhaps a IsaacNewton project of our own.

I feel fairly certain that when we get our £1.2 billion back from the EU that we have invested in the Galileo project we could replicate it for that.
All the design stuff has been done after all, we just nick it as they trying to do with our £1.2 billion.


mmmmm .......

As far as I can see the pro-Brexit lot decided to end a relationship without reading the pre-nup. That's fine provided the Brexiteers are up for the consequences.
[color=#80FF00]I'm fairly sure the pre-nup is article 50 and it's silent on this. Of course being British and a believer in fair play, I didn't quite expect this level of animosity. Animosity is expensive for both sides but If forced, I can live with it.
[/color]

In this case the remainder of the family are quite understandably saying that the UK is welcome to leave, as that is a right in the pre-nup. But those Galileo contracts for the interesting inner-workings are no longer a concern of the UK's, again per the pre-nup. The UK of course will not get any money back, because there is no money back clause on work done to date, again per the pre-nup.

[color=#80FF00]No pre-nup covers this.
[/color]

If as a consequence the UK chooses to withdraw from future Galileo work, and/or other ESA work then that is also the UK's sovereign choice. But I am pretty sure you will struggle to get full Galileo functionality for £1.2bn (and of course that will be new money, not returned money). Instead there will be a need to join with others to do anything equivalent in functionality. Hence of course the UK defence/aerospace community schmoozing Japan, South Korea, and (until recently) Turkey to try and create other non-traditional options. The Australians meanwhile long ago went the US route, or more recently the French one. Or you can be a US vassal state.
[color=#80FF00]You might be surprised. It's a major diversion off topic but a lot has been learned about software development since I started, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month if of interest.
[/color]

Turning to other defence matters are you suggesting that UK withdraws from NATO ? If not then there's not much else to discuss, as the UK has already - as a natural consequence of these pesky red lines that are easy to spout / harder to undo - withdrawn from the EU battlegroup command slot (https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa ... nse-force/). I don't think the Atlanta and Sophia notifications have yet been served but the equivalents can't be that far away if not.
[color=#80FF00]No I would not suggest withdrawal from NATO. We are fairly reliant on the US still, however the EU contribution is minimalist. I would suggest we withdraw from any European joint deployments & stay well clear of anything resembling a European army. As an aside I have just watched "The darkest hour" yesterday. I was fairly horrified to discover that in the face of German invasion, the French army deserted. I had previously been more aware of the French defence of Dunkirk, a much more PC/francophile version.
[/color]
The hard Brexit road could be very hard indeed. And this Remainer thinks the EU is quite correct to be holding firm. I wouldn't have it any other way. You break it, you own it. Expensive isn't it ?
[color=#80FF00]Well it could be expensive for both sides, yes. I am much more pre-occupied with bad dreams such as my abusive partner in an EU sense threatening me with knives after waking me up at 03:00 :)
[/color]
regards, dspp


I will reply [color=#80FF00]inline[/color], you make quite a few points.

Regards,
Sorcery

Moderator Message:
RS: I have changed the font colour to something more legible, unfortunately this has left some HTML tags visible but at least people can read your response

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Re: Galileo and Brexit

#134766

Postby dspp » April 25th, 2018, 7:45 pm

S,

The green was a bit of a struggle for me.

I simply disagree with your points re Galileo, and in due course we will find out where the negotiations get to. Personally I back the EU's stance and it was what I would have expected given the UK's behaviour. The cries of outrage from ministerial levels did not / do not come as a surprise to me - I have tried to explain these things to UK politicians before and I am well used to them not getting it. You may find a current comment thread on this on El Reg of interest http://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/25 ... _in_march/ .

Re mythical man month I read that long ago - what is your point here ? (You'll have to get total project costs down by 90% to fit it in £1.2bn since it is an overall €13bn project. Even if you shoot sixes and do that on Galileo you can't do that on all the other projects simultaneously, oh and pay £350m to the nurses, and make moonbeams out of dirt).

Re expense for UK I see lots on this trajectory. Re expense for EU I see relatively little.

Re French armed forces effectiveness in WW2 it was mixed. So was everyone's at that point of the war. The whole point of the EU is to make a rerun not possible.

Re getting out of EU industrial/science projects that is fine if you don't want to compete ever again in the serious stuff. It is very much a one-way exit function.

regards, dspp


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