beeswax wrote:They are talking to the wrong people. Its the EU they should be warning as its actually NOT the UK holding up a trade deal but them.
And if as its suggested that 90% of all the parts used our car factories come from the EU then that confirms they are as stupid as they sound..
So how much of that 100bn will be a loss to the EU and how much to the UK...That is the question.
The warning is from US, Canada, Japan and India. It's about their trade with us. If part of that trade is then used to trade with the EU, that would damage our exports, and we already have a trade deficit with the EU, so not a very good thing. Also, a lot of the companies that might be impacted would be able to work around the issue, although the UK would get hurt some more in the process. E.g. if BMW (who export more than 80% of their UK made Minis) have a problem with Brexit, they will move production to another BMW factory outside of the UK. Then they don't need to ship components into the UK, nor do they need to export cars out. Ditto Rolls Royce. The country that will get hurt is the UK.
We do have a trade surplus with the EU, so you'd think that any messing around at the borders would hurt them more than us. It will, if you look at imports vs exports alone, but that's irrelevant: you need to look at the % of trade that each country has with the UK, not what the EU has, as it will be at a country level (e.g. France's pain vs UK's pain, Germany's pain vs UK's pain etc). At that point you'll realise that whilst each country in the EU is going to feel some
pain, the UK is going to feel the aggregated
pain that we feel with each individual country (i.e. 27 doses of pain, vs each of them having only one dose of pain).
I'd love for the EU to reach out and offer us an acceptable deal, but they are pretty unlikely to do so. As we get closer to the A50 deadline, attitudes may well harden. Already we are hearing quotes like
The UK, first they wanted in with opt-outs, now they want out with opt-ins
Patience is wearing down as we are consuming a lot of time that the EU would be better off spending on issues like mass migration and border management etc.
Perhaps Brexit could have been delivered with a better team. Perhaps the current team will put a rabbit out of the hat yet. If we continue as we are, there will likely be rather more pain than necessary, for both sides. Pain that means lost jobs, houses repossessed, all the things that happen in a recession. Things that didn't have to happen if our leaders had actually thought through a plan before pushing the A50 button.