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The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

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anticrank
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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146236

Postby anticrank » June 17th, 2018, 9:31 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:Still no good explanation of this belief that sending money outside the UK will boost our GDP, while spending money on the NHS will supposedly decrease it, I notice.


So, you still don't understand that making trade more difficult with the huge wealthy market next door will reduce our GDP growth? Or that dropping out of multiple EU negotiated FTAs will make trade more difficult with the rest of the world? You don't understand this?


We have already said we want free trade. It is the EU that is raising the barriers against that, not Brexiteers.


Do I see goal posts shifting? Nobody's raising barriers. The barriers exist for all third countries. We are choosing to become a third country, and by doing so we place ourselves on the wrong side of those barriers.

But that's beside the point. Those barriers will be a drain on GDP. That's why there is no Brexit dividend.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146237

Postby XFool » June 17th, 2018, 9:32 am

ap8889 wrote:The only question is whether the EU wish to obstruct that or not. We are happy to trade freely. It is the EU that is the problem.

So if you choose to withdraw from a club, in your opinion it is the club "making things difficult" if subsequent to your leaving, the club won't allow you to continue using their facilities?

I guess it's a POV. :roll:

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146239

Postby Spet0789 » June 17th, 2018, 9:34 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?


No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


Or we can examine the return on that investment, or lack thereof, and decide that we can prefer to keep the cash. Trade will continue, if it is both parties interests to continue. The only question is whether the EU wish to obstruct that or not. We are happy to trade freely. It is the EU that is the problem.


We’re in the early stages of the great Brexit blame game. It’s not the fault of those who ignored the warnings and predictions. It’s the EU’s fault because they did precisely that they said they would do before the vote.

We won’t get trade as free as we used to have unless we remain in the SM/CU. End of discussion. We have a choice between an FTA, which the EU have offered, or single market membership, which we have rejected.

Wilde said that a cynic was someone who knew the cost of everything and the value of nothing. Seems to apply to many Brexit fans also.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146240

Postby ap8889 » June 17th, 2018, 9:35 am

anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
So, this is actually nothing more than a return to business as usual (almost) for the NHS after years of strangulation.


Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?


No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


I can just as easily turn that argument against you: Spending money on NHS facilities, nurses salaries and bandages directly generates a positive GDP return due to, you know, the money getting spent on stuff and services people need.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the EU, other services must suffer disproportionately.

Boom. See how that works!

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146241

Postby anticrank » June 17th, 2018, 9:35 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?


No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


Or we can examine the return on that investment, or lack thereof, and decide that we can prefer to keep the cash. Trade will continue, if it is both parties interests to continue. The only question is whether the EU wish to obstruct that or not. We are happy to trade freely. It is the EU that is the problem.


That analysis has been done, by DExEU amongst others. The return on investment is positive. No version of Brexit offers a better return.

It's irrelevant to this discussion that you are happy to trade freely. You are happy to eat your cake and have it. Who wouldn't be?

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146242

Postby anticrank » June 17th, 2018, 9:38 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?


No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


I can just as easily turn that argument against you: Spending money on NHS facilities, nurses salaries and bandages directly generates a positive GDP return due to, you know, the money getting spent on stuff and services people need.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the EU, other services must suffer disproportionately.

Boom. See how that works!


I can see how it works for me, when every reputable study (including the government's) supports my argument.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146243

Postby ap8889 » June 17th, 2018, 9:39 am

anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
So, you still don't understand that making trade more difficult with the huge wealthy market next door will reduce our GDP growth? Or that dropping out of multiple EU negotiated FTAs will make trade more difficult with the rest of the world? You don't understand this?


We have already said we want free trade. It is the EU that is raising the barriers against that, not Brexiteers.


Do I see goal posts shifting? Nobody's raising barriers. The barriers exist for all third countries. We are choosing to become a third country, and by doing so we place ourselves on the wrong side of those barriers.

But that's beside the point. Those barriers will be a drain on GDP. That's why there is no Brexit dividend.


But the barrier is maintained by EU fiat, and could easily be lowered for Britain as a former member if they were so minded.

But they are hostile, so that's not going to happen. Who is to blame when we ask for free trade and they offer a barrier. Not us.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146244

Postby ap8889 » June 17th, 2018, 9:44 am

anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


I can just as easily turn that argument against you: Spending money on NHS facilities, nurses salaries and bandages directly generates a positive GDP return due to, you know, the money getting spent on stuff and services people need.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the EU, other services must suffer disproportionately.

Boom. See how that works!


I can see how it works for me, when every reputable study (including the government's) supports my argument.


What, are you now saying spending on nurses lowers GDP? Wow. I can just as easily claim that almost all economists believe that paying wages increases GDP as money circulates in the economy, and what is more I don't have to rely on complicated questions of whether trade imbalances net out as a positive for the UK. I just rely on the obvious effect that paying a nurse to care is likely to cause her to pay tax and buy goods.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146245

Postby anticrank » June 17th, 2018, 9:45 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
We have already said we want free trade. It is the EU that is raising the barriers against that, not Brexiteers.


Do I see goal posts shifting? Nobody's raising barriers. The barriers exist for all third countries. We are choosing to become a third country, and by doing so we place ourselves on the wrong side of those barriers.

But that's beside the point. Those barriers will be a drain on GDP. That's why there is no Brexit dividend.


But the barrier is maintained by EU fiat, and could easily be lowered for Britain as a former member if they were so minded.

But they are hostile, so that's not going to happen. Who is to blame when we ask for free trade and they offer a barrier. Not us.


You are wrong. But your point is anyway irrelevant. You claim there is a Brexit dividend. Either there is, in spite of the barriers, or there isn't, because of the barriers.

There is no Brexit dividend. That is the fault of Brexit and its supporters. Nobody has a duty to give you what you want. Brexit means Brexit, means third country status.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146246

Postby XFool » June 17th, 2018, 9:46 am

ap8889 wrote:
XFool wrote:
ap8889 wrote:Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?

Err... no.

Can you not see (ahem!) that a "return to business as usual for the NHS" means a return to business as was. i.e. As was the case for all those years since 1975, when we were in the EU?

I'll answer my question for you now:

"No." :roll:

If you examine the graph on the BBC story, you will see that the 50s and 60s ie before EU membership, NHS funding growth was higher than most of the EU period. I blame the outrageous siphoning of funds to stock the EU wine cellar.

Well you would, wouldn't you? You'd probably do the same with defence spending, or anything else!

The spending growth rate was and is a political decision - obviously effected by budgeting decisions and available income .

Interesting to see how low it went during the CON/LIB coalition.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146247

Postby BobbyD » June 17th, 2018, 9:51 am

Sundance13 wrote:It’s a wind up, nobody can be stupid enough to really believe this is a Brexit dividend, especially given we don’t even know yet when we’ll stop paying budget contributions.


I wouldn't bet on that.

Oh look I was right...

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the ... public
Last edited by BobbyD on June 17th, 2018, 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146248

Postby ap8889 » June 17th, 2018, 9:52 am

anticrank wrote:
You are wrong. But your point is anyway irrelevant. You claim there is a Brexit dividend. Either there is, in spite of the barriers, or there isn't, because of the barriers.

There is no Brexit dividend. That is the fault of Brexit and its supporters. Nobody has a duty to give you what you want. Brexit means Brexit, means third country status.


And yet Mrs May is content there will be one. And she is spending it on nurses.

Nobody has a duty to give the EU what it wants, too. But I think we do have a duty to try arrange care for the sick, rather than buy Brussels more Dom Perignon.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146249

Postby ap8889 » June 17th, 2018, 9:54 am

XFool wrote:
ap8889 wrote:If you examine the graph on the BBC story, you will see that the 50s and 60s ie before EU membership, NHS funding growth was higher than most of the EU period. I blame the outrageous siphoning of funds to stock the EU wine cellar.

Well you would, wouldn't you? You'd probably do the same with defence spending, or anything else!


Was that the sound of a hit scored? I think it was.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146251

Postby Sundance13 » June 17th, 2018, 9:55 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
We have already said we want free trade. It is the EU that is raising the barriers against that, not Brexiteers.


Do I see goal posts shifting? Nobody's raising barriers. The barriers exist for all third countries. We are choosing to become a third country, and by doing so we place ourselves on the wrong side of those barriers.

But that's beside the point. Those barriers will be a drain on GDP. That's why there is no Brexit dividend.


But the barrier is maintained by EU fiat, and could easily be lowered for Britain as a former member if they were so minded.

But they are hostile, so that's not going to happen. Who is to blame when we ask for free trade and they offer a barrier. Not us.


The U.K. has said it is not prepared to follow the rules/regs or institutions that enable frictionless trade/no barriers between EU members, so not an option I’m afraid.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146252

Postby XFool » June 17th, 2018, 9:57 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
Is this not another way of saying the EU contribution was at the expense of the NHS?


No. The EU contribution should be seen as an investment that generates a positive return in the form of increased GDP, due to frictionless trade with the EU, etc.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the NHS, other services must suffer disproportionately.


I can just as easily turn that argument against you: Spending money on NHS facilities, nurses salaries and bandages directly generates a positive GDP return due to, you know, the money getting spent on stuff and services people need.

But that isn't the point being argued. (It would be, and has been in the past, by many on the hard Right - "Anything public service is a negative")
It's about the UK economy in total, not just the NHS or any other particular part of the UK. It's about overseas trade and how membership of the EU affects that. There are of course other, 'political' arguments wrt the EU. But they aren't being discussed here and we anyway already know hard Brexiteer's attitudes to anything 'foreign'. ;)

ap8889 wrote:We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the EU, other services must suffer disproportionately.

Boom. See how that works!

Nope!
Last edited by XFool on June 17th, 2018, 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146253

Postby anticrank » June 17th, 2018, 9:57 am

ap8889 wrote:
anticrank wrote:
ap8889 wrote:
I can just as easily turn that argument against you: Spending money on NHS facilities, nurses salaries and bandages directly generates a positive GDP return due to, you know, the money getting spent on stuff and services people need.

We can choose not to make that investment. In which case, we keep that cash, but we forego the returns. Our net position is then worse, obviously. If the investment funds are then diverted to the EU, other services must suffer disproportionately.

Boom. See how that works!


I can see how it works for me, when every reputable study (including the government's) supports my argument.


What, are you now saying spending on nurses lowers GDP? Wow. I can just as easily claim that almost all economists believe that paying wages increases GDP as money circulates in the economy, and what is more I don't have to rely on complicated questions of whether trade imbalances net out as a positive for the UK. I just rely on the obvious effect that paying a nurse to care is likely to cause her to pay tax and buy goods.


Better that you stick to what I say, rather than what you'd like me to have said. I have said that the net UK position will be worse as a result of Brexit.

This is equivalent to saying that there is no known alternative investment for our EU contributions that offers a better return than EU membership. The government agrees. But, will of the people...

Which means, by sending money to the EU, we are better placed to pay nurses more. Whatever economic benefits then flow from paying nurses more, those benefits will remain available to us. Taking that money and paying it directly to nurses leaves the country worse off, in the round. And will eventually leave nurses worse off too.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146255

Postby Sundance13 » June 17th, 2018, 9:59 am

BobbyD wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:It’s a wind up, nobody can be stupid enough to really believe this is a Brexit dividend, especially given we don’t even know yet when we’ll stop paying budget contributions.


I wouldn't bet on that.

Oh look I was right...

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the ... public


Possibly, but I still think this is primarily a wind up to annoy Remainers, not that he/she will admit it on this forum.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146257

Postby XFool » June 17th, 2018, 10:00 am

ap8889 wrote:
XFool wrote:
ap8889 wrote:If you examine the graph on the BBC story, you will see that the 50s and 60s ie before EU membership, NHS funding growth was higher than most of the EU period. I blame the outrageous siphoning of funds to stock the EU wine cellar.

Well you would, wouldn't you? You'd probably do the same with defence spending, or anything else!

Was that the sound of a hit scored? I think it was.

I guess that's what you must think... :)

I wonder just how many times in total that £350m per week could be reused? ;)

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146260

Postby XFool » June 17th, 2018, 10:03 am

Sundance13 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:It’s a wind up, nobody can be stupid enough to really believe this is a Brexit dividend, especially given we don’t even know yet when we’ll stop paying budget contributions.


I wouldn't bet on that.

Oh look I was right...

No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the ... public

Possibly, but I still think this is primarily a wind up to annoy Remainers, not that he/she will admit it on this forum.

But is it winding up Remainers? Or just confirming all our 'prejudices'?

WARMING! Conspiracy Theory: Could it be a Remainer posing as a Brexiteer to discredit Brexiteers? ;)
Last edited by XFool on June 17th, 2018, 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Job of Brex part deux: £350m worth

#146261

Postby BobbyD » June 17th, 2018, 10:04 am

Sundance13 wrote:Possibly, but I still think this is primarily a wind up to annoy Remainers, not that he/she will admit it on this forum.


The same could be said for Brexit itself...


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