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An EU Perspective

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Sundance13
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An EU Perspective

#157867

Postby Sundance13 » August 8th, 2018, 9:38 am

Read a super article this morning from Claus Grube - an Anglophile and former Danish Anbassador to the U.K.

In the attached he sets out his view on where we are at with negotiations and the position of the EU.

No hatred of the U.K. or punishment agenda, just the reality that the EU won’t give us a special deal which helps the U.K., but at the expense of the EU member states.

A must read for Brexiteers.

https://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-and-eu ... r-everyone

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157965

Postby beeswax » August 8th, 2018, 4:24 pm

Sundance13 wrote:Read a super article this morning from Claus Grube - an Anglophile and former Danish Anbassador to the U.K.

In the attached he sets out his view on where we are at with negotiations and the position of the EU.

No hatred of the U.K. or punishment agenda, just the reality that the EU won’t give us a special deal which helps the U.K., but at the expense of the EU member states.

A must read for Brexiteers.

https://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-and-eu ... r-everyone


Hi Dan,

I've read it and its mostly nonsense my friend.

He said that all the other 27 countries in the EU have benefited enormously from the single market? Really? Italy, Spain, Greece?

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..

He said we may as well stay in the EU re the single market rules etc...Wrong, he misunderstood why people voted to leave. It was not about the SM or CU as that as I keep saying is the economics argument. People really did understand both but voted to regain political control of borders, laws and money, fishing and Agric and against EU laws having precedent over ours...Regaining these should help to increase jobs, prosperity and stabilise house prices as immigration falls..ie demand falls..

We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157966

Postby BobbyD » August 8th, 2018, 4:34 pm

beeswax wrote:[
We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


I can't wait for the next DSM release.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157968

Postby Sundance13 » August 8th, 2018, 4:35 pm

beeswax wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:Read a super article this morning from Claus Grube - an Anglophile and former Danish Anbassador to the U.K.

In the attached he sets out his view on where we are at with negotiations and the position of the EU.

No hatred of the U.K. or punishment agenda, just the reality that the EU won’t give us a special deal which helps the U.K., but at the expense of the EU member states.

A must read for Brexiteers.

https://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-and-eu ... r-everyone


Hi Dan,

I've read it and its mostly nonsense my friend.

He said that all the other 27 countries in the EU have benefited enormously from the single market? Really? Italy, Spain, Greece?

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..

He said we may as well stay in the EU re the single market rules etc...Wrong, he misunderstood why people voted to leave. It was not about the SM or CU as that as I keep saying is the economics argument. People really did understand both but voted to regain political control of borders, laws and money, fishing and Agric and against EU laws having precedent over ours...Regaining these should help to increase jobs, prosperity and stabilise house prices as immigration falls..ie demand falls..

We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


FWIW I agree with you on your point about why British people voted to leave, he does focus on the economic angle & miss the sovereignty issue.

The point is the article though is the EUs perspective on the negotiations & Brexit. The fact you think he is wrong on the impact of no deal and the value of the single market, is your opinion. It isn’t the opinion of the EU and it takes 2 to make a deal. This is their opinion, or someone I believe who closely reflects their consensus view.

One of my key criticisms of the U.K. Govt & Brexiteers, is their failure to understand the perspective of the EU, what’s important to them. This is crucial as unless we understand this we’ll keep on coming up with unrealistic proposals like Chequers, which ends up peeing off both sides (we think they’re punishing us, they think we’re trying to cherry pick). It’s like failing to consider what your enemy is likely to do before a major battle!

The consequences of continued failure will be no deal and all that comes with that for both sides.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157973

Postby dionaeamuscipula » August 8th, 2018, 4:51 pm

beeswax wrote:[

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..


We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


You have said a number of times that you think the EU will suffer more from a hard Brexit than the UK. I think a fair measure of the effect on each party (and there are several measures that could be used) would be: what percentage of the UK's economy is represented by exports to the rEU, versus what percentage of the rEU's economy is represented by exports to the UK?

The answer is: (source: https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

To the UK it is 12%.

To the rEU it is 4% using their calculation of UK trade, which is higher than the UK equivalent calculation

Trade with the UK, which as you say is a large economy, is important to the EU, and that is why they keep saying that they want to achieve a satisfactory settlement. But trade with the EU is three times as important to the UK.

DM

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157975

Postby Sundance13 » August 8th, 2018, 4:59 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
beeswax wrote:[

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..


We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


You have said a number of times that you think the EU will suffer more from a hard Brexit than the UK. I think a fair measure of the effect on each party (and there are several measures that could be used) would be: what percentage of the UK's economy is represented by exports to the rEU, versus what percentage of the rEU's economy is represented by exports to the UK?

The answer is: (source: https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

To the UK it is 12%.

To the rEU it is 4% using their calculation of UK trade, which is higher than the UK equivalent calculation

Trade with the UK, which as you say is a large economy, is important to the EU, and that is why they keep saying that they want to achieve a satisfactory settlement. But trade with the EU is three times as important to the UK.

DM



The other thing not to forget as well is our exports to the RoW, where either an FTA or some other form of trade arrangement is in place via our membership of the EU & Common Commercial Policy.

We need to replace these agreements with U.K. ones from March 19, Jan 21 if we achieve a transition deal. If we leave with no deal all our exports will be on WTO terms only after March 19, so it’s not just our exports to the EU that are at risk.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157981

Postby beeswax » August 8th, 2018, 5:13 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
beeswax wrote:[

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..


We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


You have said a number of times that you think the EU will suffer more from a hard Brexit than the UK. I think a fair measure of the effect on each party (and there are several measures that could be used) would be: what percentage of the UK's economy is represented by exports to the rEU, versus what percentage of the rEU's economy is represented by exports to the UK?

The answer is: (source: https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

To the UK it is 12%.

To the rEU it is 4% using their calculation of UK trade, which is higher than the UK equivalent calculation

Trade with the UK, which as you say is a large economy, is important to the EU, and that is why they keep saying that they want to achieve a satisfactory settlement. But trade with the EU is three times as important to the UK.

DM


Yes, those figures reflecting trade UK and EU may well be correct but it doesn't reflect the reality of the situation where they have an 80bn pounds trade surplus with the UK and if we were starting from scratch now, we would never pay them to allow that sort of surplus, more like suggesting the EU pay us...The other thing is it doesn't reflect the individual risk to countries like Germany where 800,000 cars a year are exported here and billions of pounds and tens of thousands of German jobs are at risk. So are they going to support a trade deal or punish us because of the four freedoms?

Its obvious that the UK has become so intertwined with the economics and the politics is why this is all so difficult and complicated. If it was just about the economics then the EU would be rushing to do a deal with us...for those reasons above..

We have to try and keep these things separate and why a Canada type deal seems a better proposition but as a third country they keep telling us we will be then fine....Like any third country we need to assess what our liabilities are re defence, NATO, contributing to other EU institutions and indeed security...I suspect that IF these were taken into account we would be billions in pocket whatever trade deal they agree...ie just compare Canada deal just on trade and cross out all the other liabilities that they don't pay that we do...

Mrs May is clearly as dim as can be when she offered 39bn for nothing and offered to defend them all come what may, and then agreed to obey all their rules, ECJ and membership fees way way past our official leaving date of 29th March until Dec 2020 that some people think will be extended.

Had we had a tough negotiator like Trump we would have either had a trade deal by now or on WTO terms 2 years ago...But as the multi billionaire James Hargreaves as just said, having career civil servants negotiating our departure was the worst possible thing we could have done. They have never negotiated a business/trade deal in their lives before..He said we should have had a team of hard nosed successful business people doing it...and why its all gone wrong. It really is nothing to do with the 17.4m who voted to leave but the useless what did BJ say? Like polishing turds we have doing it...and we wonder why the EU won't budge?

The only question that mattered to the EU was...

Do you want to continue to sell us 80,000 million pounds worth of goods more than we sell you or not?

That question should have been the very first one the day after the referendum...
Last edited by beeswax on August 8th, 2018, 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157988

Postby Sundance13 » August 8th, 2018, 5:24 pm

beeswax wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
beeswax wrote:[

He said the EU will lose if we win, wrong, a no deal and they lose massively. I'm not sure whether we will as some experts say that is the best deal...and no leaving fee either..


We are not Denmark or Luxembourg we are one of the largest economies in the world and so any economic pain will certainly fall on the EU and us probably short term but on balance they will suffer more and why its in their economic interest to agree a deal even though politically the Commission won't want to...


You have said a number of times that you think the EU will suffer more from a hard Brexit than the UK. I think a fair measure of the effect on each party (and there are several measures that could be used) would be: what percentage of the UK's economy is represented by exports to the rEU, versus what percentage of the rEU's economy is represented by exports to the UK?

The answer is: (source: https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

To the UK it is 12%.

To the rEU it is 4% using their calculation of UK trade, which is higher than the UK equivalent calculation

Trade with the UK, which as you say is a large economy, is important to the EU, and that is why they keep saying that they want to achieve a satisfactory settlement. But trade with the EU is three times as important to the UK.

DM


Yes, those figures reflecting trade UK and EU may well be correct but it doesn't reflect the reality of the situation where they have an 80bn pounds trade surplus with the UK and if we were starting from scratch now, we would never pay them to allow that sort of surplus, more like suggesting the EU pay us...The other thing is it doesn't reflect the individual risk to countries like Germany where 800,000 cars a year are exported here and billions of pounds and tens of thousands of German jobs are at risk. So are they going to support a trade deal or punish us because of the four freedoms?

Its obvious that the UK has become so intertwined with the economics and the politics is why this is all so difficult and complicated. If it was just about the economics then the EU would be rushing to do a deal with us...for those reasons above..

We have to try and keep these things separate and why a Canada type deal seems a better proposition but as a third country they keep telling us we will be then fine....Like any third country we need to assess what our liabilities are re defence, NATO, contributing to other EU institutions and indeed security...I suspect that IF these were taken into account we would be billions in pocket whatever trade deal they agree...ie just compare Canada deal just on trade and cross out all the other liabilities that they don't pay that we do...

Mrs May is clearly as dim as can be when she offered 39bn for nothing and offered to defend them all come what may, and then agreed to obey all their rules, ECJ and membership fees way way past our official leaving date of 29th March until Dec 2020 that some people think will be extended.

Had we had a tough negotiator like Trump we would have either had a trade deal by now or on WTO terms 2 years ago...But as the multi billionaire James Hargreaves as just said, having career civil servants negotiating our departure was the worst possible thing we could have done. He said we should have had a team of hard nosed successful business people doing it...and why its all gone wrong. It really is nothing to do with the 17.4m who voted to leave but the useless turds we have doing it...and we wonder why the EU won't budge?



Mike,

In the event of WTO/No deal, why would their exports to the U.K. be at risk?

The EU will lose the frictionless trade advantages it has over RoW currently, but it won’t be at a disadvantage and will arguably still have advantages. It will still be our closest market (less distance less cost), have established customer/supply chains and achieve accepted U.K. regulatory standards (EU standards incorporated into U.K. law).

So personally I don’t see that big a risk in terms of EU exports to the U.K. above & beyond the initial no deal impacts which will affect everyone.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157993

Postby BobbyD » August 8th, 2018, 5:31 pm

Sundance13 wrote:One of my key criticisms of the U.K. Govt & Brexiteers, is their failure to understand the perspective of the EU


The government might understand the EU point of view, but they can't afford to acknowledge it since as soon as they do the Chairman of the 1922 committee is going to have a bumper postbag.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157996

Postby beeswax » August 8th, 2018, 5:35 pm

Sundance13 wrote:
beeswax wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
You have said a number of times that you think the EU will suffer more from a hard Brexit than the UK. I think a fair measure of the effect on each party (and there are several measures that could be used) would be: what percentage of the UK's economy is represented by exports to the rEU, versus what percentage of the rEU's economy is represented by exports to the UK?

The answer is: (source: https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/)

To the UK it is 12%.

To the rEU it is 4% using their calculation of UK trade, which is higher than the UK equivalent calculation

Trade with the UK, which as you say is a large economy, is important to the EU, and that is why they keep saying that they want to achieve a satisfactory settlement. But trade with the EU is three times as important to the UK.

DM


Yes, those figures reflecting trade UK and EU may well be correct but it doesn't reflect the reality of the situation where they have an 80bn pounds trade surplus with the UK and if we were starting from scratch now, we would never pay them to allow that sort of surplus, more like suggesting the EU pay us...The other thing is it doesn't reflect the individual risk to countries like Germany where 800,000 cars a year are exported here and billions of pounds and tens of thousands of German jobs are at risk. So are they going to support a trade deal or punish us because of the four freedoms?

Its obvious that the UK has become so intertwined with the economics and the politics is why this is all so difficult and complicated. If it was just about the economics then the EU would be rushing to do a deal with us...for those reasons above..

We have to try and keep these things separate and why a Canada type deal seems a better proposition but as a third country they keep telling us we will be then fine....Like any third country we need to assess what our liabilities are re defence, NATO, contributing to other EU institutions and indeed security...I suspect that IF these were taken into account we would be billions in pocket whatever trade deal they agree...ie just compare Canada deal just on trade and cross out all the other liabilities that they don't pay that we do...

Mrs May is clearly as dim as can be when she offered 39bn for nothing and offered to defend them all come what may, and then agreed to obey all their rules, ECJ and membership fees way way past our official leaving date of 29th March until Dec 2020 that some people think will be extended.

Had we had a tough negotiator like Trump we would have either had a trade deal by now or on WTO terms 2 years ago...But as the multi billionaire James Hargreaves as just said, having career civil servants negotiating our departure was the worst possible thing we could have done. He said we should have had a team of hard nosed successful business people doing it...and why its all gone wrong. It really is nothing to do with the 17.4m who voted to leave but the useless turds we have doing it...and we wonder why the EU won't budge?



Mike,

In the event of WTO/No deal, why would their exports to the U.K. be at risk?

The EU will lose the frictionless trade advantages it has over RoW currently, but it won’t be at a disadvantage and will arguably still have advantages. It will still be our closest market (less distance less cost), have established customer/supply chains and achieve accepted U.K. regulatory standards (EU standards incorporated into U.K. law).

So personally I don’t see that big a risk in terms of EU exports above & beyond the initial no deal impacts which will affect everyone.


Two things Dan,

If we go to WTO we save 39bn pounds immediately. And no need for a transition period that will save us another 20bn...

The supply chains run both ways, if they want customs checks then we will too and block all ports both sides of the channel.

Thirdly that's three..;) . We can under WTO rules have zero tariffs or 10% tariffs on every single item being imported into the UK from the EU and elsewhere....

The EU have to accept that a no deal is the worst outcome for them...and why they have all been very quiet on May's Chequers deal...as they know its unlikely to be accepted by the Tory Party anyway and any other concessions will be certainly..

I sense a panic in the EU as the time is getting shorter but as you say it could be press speculation but as James Hargreaves as just said that in the event of a no deal, Germany, France and Italy will be queuing up for a trade deal only because they have a massive surplus of trade with us...My ideas are far too simple but being he has made 3bn plus from business, he should know don't you think?

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Re: An EU Perspective

#157997

Postby johnhemming » August 8th, 2018, 5:38 pm

If we want to leave the Customs Union then we have to accept that there needs to be some system to deal with the fact that we will no longer be in the same customs area.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158001

Postby Sundance13 » August 8th, 2018, 5:46 pm

beeswax wrote:
Sundance13 wrote:
beeswax wrote:
Yes, those figures reflecting trade UK and EU may well be correct but it doesn't reflect the reality of the situation where they have an 80bn pounds trade surplus with the UK and if we were starting from scratch now, we would never pay them to allow that sort of surplus, more like suggesting the EU pay us...The other thing is it doesn't reflect the individual risk to countries like Germany where 800,000 cars a year are exported here and billions of pounds and tens of thousands of German jobs are at risk. So are they going to support a trade deal or punish us because of the four freedoms?

Its obvious that the UK has become so intertwined with the economics and the politics is why this is all so difficult and complicated. If it was just about the economics then the EU would be rushing to do a deal with us...for those reasons above..

We have to try and keep these things separate and why a Canada type deal seems a better proposition but as a third country they keep telling us we will be then fine....Like any third country we need to assess what our liabilities are re defence, NATO, contributing to other EU institutions and indeed security...I suspect that IF these were taken into account we would be billions in pocket whatever trade deal they agree...ie just compare Canada deal just on trade and cross out all the other liabilities that they don't pay that we do...

Mrs May is clearly as dim as can be when she offered 39bn for nothing and offered to defend them all come what may, and then agreed to obey all their rules, ECJ and membership fees way way past our official leaving date of 29th March until Dec 2020 that some people think will be extended.

Had we had a tough negotiator like Trump we would have either had a trade deal by now or on WTO terms 2 years ago...But as the multi billionaire James Hargreaves as just said, having career civil servants negotiating our departure was the worst possible thing we could have done. He said we should have had a team of hard nosed successful business people doing it...and why its all gone wrong. It really is nothing to do with the 17.4m who voted to leave but the useless turds we have doing it...and we wonder why the EU won't budge?



Mike,

In the event of WTO/No deal, why would their exports to the U.K. be at risk?

The EU will lose the frictionless trade advantages it has over RoW currently, but it won’t be at a disadvantage and will arguably still have advantages. It will still be our closest market (less distance less cost), have established customer/supply chains and achieve accepted U.K. regulatory standards (EU standards incorporated into U.K. law).

So personally I don’t see that big a risk in terms of EU exports above & beyond the initial no deal impacts which will affect everyone.


Two things Dan,

If we go to WTO we save 39bn pounds immediately. And no need for a transition period that will save us another 20bn...

The supply chains run both ways, if they want customs checks then we will too and block all ports both sides of the channel.

Thirdly that's three..;) . We can under WTO rules have zero tariffs or 10% tariffs on every single item being imported into the UK from the EU and elsewhere....

The EU have to accept that a no deal is the worst outcome for them...and why they have all been very quiet on May's Chequers deal...as they know its unlikely to be accepted by the Tory Party anyway and any other concessions will be certainly..

I sense a panic in the EU as the time is getting shorter but as you say it could be press speculation but as James Hargreaves as just said that in the event of a no deal, Germany, France and Italy will be queuing up for a trade deal only because they have a massive surplus of trade with us...My ideas are far too simple but being he has made 3bn plus from business, he should know don't you think?



Mike,

You seem to be suggesting a trade war - blocking ports, not paying divorce bill etc. The impact if that happened, well suffice to say the impacts on the U.K., would be more towards the Armageddon end of the Govts scenarios!

The EU won’t be blocking our goods, they’ll be legally obliged to conduct the same checks they carry out for all 3rd countries, so as not to fall foul of WTO rules. They don’t have a choice in this!

Your suggestion of discriminating against EU goods would not only start a trade war but fall foul of WTO rules, we’d be a pariah state facing economic catastrophe.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158007

Postby dionaeamuscipula » August 8th, 2018, 5:58 pm

beeswax wrote:
If we go to WTO we save 39bn pounds immediately. And no need for a transition period that will save us another 20bn...



Raab (who was clearly in negotiating mode) said we might not pay. But it seems clear to me (and see: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... vorce-bill) that it is highly likely that a refusal to pay the divorce bill (which is largely based on what we have already agreed to over the EU budget period, and not on a transition deal) will end up in an international court and could have catastrophic effects on our world standing. And BTW is dwarfed by Parliament's estimate of the £60bn additional borrowing required by government based on a no deal Brexit.

DM

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158011

Postby Lootman » August 8th, 2018, 6:05 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote: a refusal to pay the divorce bill . . will end up in an international court

Which international court?

Not the ECJ, which would no longer have jurisdiction over us.

The International Court of Justice in the Hague is essentially a UN vehicle, is advisory only, and has been routinely disregarded by the US, for example. in fact any permanent member of the UN Security Council can veto the ICJ's authority on a given case.

So where?

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158015

Postby beeswax » August 8th, 2018, 6:13 pm

Lootman wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote: a refusal to pay the divorce bill . . will end up in an international court

Which international court?

Not the ECJ, which would no longer have jurisdiction over us.

The International Court of Justice in the Hague is essentially a UN vehicle, is advisory only, and has been routinely disregarded by the US, for example.

So where?


I think that is what is called 'Check Mate'!

The legal opinion both in the UK and the EU is that NO leaving fee is payable and is not in the Art50 either..

The problem is May promising to pay that without a firm trade deal which was what Eurosceptics thought it was back then...

Its why Raab has reaffirmed that position and so it was never a unconditional payment..

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158019

Postby BobbyD » August 8th, 2018, 6:17 pm

beeswax wrote:The EU have to accept that a no deal is the worst outcome for them...


The EU disagree, they believe compromising their sovereignty and the integrity of their single market would be far more costly than a disruption in trade with a single partner. They each have 26 other partners within the single market to replace that trade with if it becomes absolutely necessary, and a welter of trade agreements in place which means they trade on WTO terms with a whopping 24 countries, whilst they have FTA's with 68 countries.

Not one country trades solely on WTO terms, which is what the UK would be doing after a no deal flounce, there's probably a reason for that.

Trump has utterly failed to bully the EU, there's no chance you are going to succeed.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158020

Postby Charlottesquare » August 8th, 2018, 6:18 pm

Lootman wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote: a refusal to pay the divorce bill . . will end up in an international court

Which international court?

Not the ECJ, which would no longer have jurisdiction over us.

The International Court of Justice in the Hague is essentially a UN vehicle, is advisory only, and has been routinely disregarded by the US, for example. in fact any permanent member of the UN Security Council can veto the ICJ's authority on a given case.

So where?


I am no lawyer, but if the EU's argument was that we were due sums arising from our period of membership of the EU, and if throughout that membership the ECJ had legal standing re any such disputes, might it be argued that for the purpose of arbitration of the dispute that arises from our past membership of the EU ,the ECJ standing would remain?

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158021

Postby Lootman » August 8th, 2018, 6:22 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Lootman wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote: a refusal to pay the divorce bill . . will end up in an international court
Which international court?

Not the ECJ, which would no longer have jurisdiction over us.

The International Court of Justice in the Hague is essentially a UN vehicle, is advisory only, and has been routinely disregarded by the US, for example. in fact any permanent member of the UN Security Council can veto the ICJ's authority on a given case.

So where?

I am no lawyer, but if the EU's argument was that we were due sums arising from our period of membership of the EU, and if throughout that membership the ECJ had legal standing re any such disputes, might it be argued that for the purpose of arbitration of the dispute that arises from our past membership of the EU ,the ECJ standing would remain?

It's not just a matter of making a ruling, though. Any court can rule on anything. It is more about how a claimant/plaintiff then enforces that court ruling, especially if the defendant is no longer within that jurisdiction nor subject to its rules.

It's rather like you getting a parking ticket the day before you emigrate to Australia. The UK court will rule that you owe but the odds of you ever having to pay is fairly limited.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158022

Postby Sorcery » August 8th, 2018, 6:25 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Lootman wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote: a refusal to pay the divorce bill . . will end up in an international court

Which international court?

Not the ECJ, which would no longer have jurisdiction over us.

The International Court of Justice in the Hague is essentially a UN vehicle, is advisory only, and has been routinely disregarded by the US, for example. in fact any permanent member of the UN Security Council can veto the ICJ's authority on a given case.

So where?


I am no lawyer, but if the EU's argument was that we were due sums arising from our period of membership of the EU, and if throughout that membership the ECJ had legal standing re any such disputes, might it be argued that for the purpose of arbitration of the dispute that arises from our past membership of the EU ,the ECJ standing would remain?


Well the ECJ is likely to be extremely partisan in it's judgements, the ECJ would have no legal standing imho except as a litigant.

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Re: An EU Perspective

#158023

Postby Ashfordian » August 8th, 2018, 6:26 pm

Sundance13 wrote:In the event of WTO/No deal, why would their exports to the U.K. be at risk?


Every single thing they export to us would immediately incur the tariff as set out in WTO rules and thus their imports would be in competition with the ROW but now without their price advantage.

A simple example, Chilean, Australian and South African,etc, wine would be the same price as now but French, Italian and Spanish, etc, wine immediately increases in price by 32% by way of WTO tariff.


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