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Business Reality verses Project Fear

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dspp
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#225529

Postby dspp » May 30th, 2019, 3:16 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
dspp wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:There are many, many, undersea cables in place (mainly telecoms) where the raison d'etre is to avoid having to pass traffic through undesirable or expensive countries that would otherwise be in the way of a direct land route.

DM


There is a rather significant difference between a telecoms cable and a power cable.


The Celtic Interconnector is both.

From a strategic POV it makes perfect sense to cut the UK out of the loop when looking at power and telecomms, and they have been looking at enhancing freight traffic as well. My comment was aimed at "This project would never have passed the laugh test pre-referendum", because it is not that unusual.

DM


Most power cables carry comms. There is at least an order of magnitude difference in cost between a power cable & a comms cable.

BobbyD
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227285

Postby BobbyD » June 5th, 2019, 6:40 pm

Another car plant which just happens to be based in the UK, pure coincidence obviously, to close...

Ford planning to close Bridgend plant – more than 1,500 jobs at risk


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bs-at-risk

dspp
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227292

Postby dspp » June 5th, 2019, 7:09 pm

BobbyD wrote:Another car plant which just happens to be based in the UK, pure coincidence obviously, to close...

Ford planning to close Bridgend plant – more than 1,500 jobs at risk


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bs-at-risk


A couple of weeks ago I met senior buyers from a large multinational corporation based in the rEU, who are our existing clients. They told me that they were instructed to not spend any time or money on qualifying any suppliers in the UK at the current time. What they said is consistent with what I am seeing from other similar corporations. Actions of these corporations are consistent with seeking to exit all liabilities associated with their UK-based operations, i.e. shut down and/or offload the UK factories. They mostly/all have spare capacity elsewhere, and this is a convenient moment to do some shedding.

On the subject of Ford Dagenham (engines) and Ford Halewood (transmissions), both are technologies that basically don't exist in electric vehicles. It will be quite an uphill struggle to bribe persuade Ford to reinvest in any operations in the UK on this trajectory.

- dspp

OwenSwansea
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227309

Postby OwenSwansea » June 5th, 2019, 8:20 pm

dspp,
Jaguar Land Rover and BMW have just agreed to cooperate in the development of electric vehicles, so the situation may not be as bad as you think it is.
Anyway, as soon as Brexit is sorted, business will get back to normal.

Owen.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227318

Postby Garless » June 5th, 2019, 9:19 pm

OwenSwansea wrote:dspp,
Jaguar Land Rover and BMW have just agreed to cooperate in the development of electric vehicles, so the situation may not be as bad as you think it is.
Anyway, as soon as Brexit is sorted, business will get back to normal.

Owen.


BMW have said the batteries and power trains will be made in Europe so Oxford Cowley will be no more than a metal bashing assembly plant, easy to move if they have to.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227322

Postby BobbyD » June 5th, 2019, 9:33 pm

dspp wrote:A couple of weeks ago I met senior buyers from a large multinational corporation based in the rEU, who are our existing clients. They told me that they were instructed to not spend any time or money on qualifying any suppliers in the UK at the current time. What they said is consistent with what I am seeing from other similar corporations.


I'm surprised anybody thought, or more worryingly still thinks, anything else was going to happen..

Spet0789
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227324

Postby Spet0789 » June 5th, 2019, 9:40 pm

OwenSwansea wrote:dspp,
Jaguar Land Rover and BMW have just agreed to cooperate in the development of electric vehicles, so the situation may not be as bad as you think it is.
Anyway, as soon as Brexit is sorted, business will get back to normal.

Owen.


And their joint research centre will be based in... Munich. So the impact of today’s announcement will be to move some R&D jobs from the U.K. to Germany. Perhaps having confidence in their ability to recruit talent of all nationalities has played a part in that decision to locate in Germany and not Brexit Britain.

Unless Brexit is sorted by revoking Art 50, this week’s news will just be the tip of the iceberg. Years of uncertainty will mean it may not ‘get back to normal’ for the 50 years JRM mentioned.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227337

Postby BobbyD » June 6th, 2019, 12:27 am

Spet0789 wrote:
Unless Brexit is sorted by revoking Art 50, this week’s news will just be the tip of the iceberg. Years of uncertainty will mean it may not ‘get back to normal’ for the 50 years JRM mentioned.


There's also the minor question of normal for when, or where...

hiriskpaul
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227373

Postby hiriskpaul » June 6th, 2019, 9:38 am

Even if article 50 was revoked, I suspect it may take a long time to get back to normal. Some bridges have already been burned. For those making decisions on where to direct investment in the EU, the political chaos and prospect of a confiscartory hard left government might make the UK a little off putting!

Spet0789
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227378

Postby Spet0789 » June 6th, 2019, 9:53 am

hiriskpaul wrote:Even if article 50 was revoked, I suspect it may take a long time to get back to normal. Some bridges have already been burned. For those making decisions on where to direct investment in the EU, the political chaos and prospect of a confiscartory hard left government might make the UK a little off putting!


Politically yes, economically no. We’d see a 12 month boom as the dam breaks on 3 years of deferred investment and hiring decisions.

I don’t think the only bridges that have been burned are between voters and specific parties. If Brexit proceeds and is the inevitable car crash, I won’t vote Conservative for the foreseeable future, having been a member in the past and until the last GE always voted for them.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227384

Postby BobbyD » June 6th, 2019, 10:10 am

Spet0789 wrote:
hiriskpaul wrote:Even if article 50 was revoked, I suspect it may take a long time to get back to normal. Some bridges have already been burned. For those making decisions on where to direct investment in the EU, the political chaos and prospect of a confiscartory hard left government might make the UK a little off putting!


Politically yes, economically no. We’d see a 12 month boom as the dam breaks on 3 years of deferred investment and hiring decisions.


Put a stake through Brexit's heart and you might be right, but let's face it whilst there might be some heady partying when Brexit crumbles unless there is a significant social and political coalescence around a Remain future there is likely to be a long A50 investment hangover as we move from a situation of uncertainty where leaving is the default to a situation of uncertainty where staying is the uncertain default.

The idea that revoking A50 will return us to 'normal' isn't nearly as hopelessly naive as the idea that post-Brexit, or even post no deal Brexit, normality will be restored but with extra unicorns, but it is somewhat 'positive' thinking. Whatever happens the UK's reputation will take a significant dint, and people will think twice about spending money here for sometime when we are surrounded by options which don't pose the same risks or have such an unpredictable political future.

Now, maybe pent up investment pressure being released in to the economy drives that social and political consensus, the divide which runs down the middle of the population is magically healed and we do all live happily ever after. Maybe...

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227648

Postby SteMiS » June 7th, 2019, 8:19 am

BobbyD wrote:Another car plant which just happens to be based in the UK, pure coincidence obviously, to close...

Ford planning to close Bridgend plant – more than 1,500 jobs at risk


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bs-at-risk

Here's Minford, who is the Brexiteers economist of reference, accepting in 2012 that Brexit will mean the total collapse of the UK car industry

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/statu ... 3400243201

We can't say we weren't warned, even if now Brexiteers are trying to pretend it would have happened anyway. Ford is just the beginning...

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227668

Postby richfool » June 7th, 2019, 9:21 am

SteMiS wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Another car plant which just happens to be based in the UK, pure coincidence obviously, to close...

Ford planning to close Bridgend plant – more than 1,500 jobs at risk


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bs-at-risk

Here's Minford, who is the Brexiteers economist of reference, accepting in 2012 that Brexit will mean the total collapse of the UK car industry

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/statu ... 3400243201

We can't say we weren't warned, even if now Brexiteers are trying to pretend it would have happened anyway. Ford is just the beginning...

The decline in the (global) market for petrol and particularly diesel-engined cars has been underway for some time. The move is towards electric cars and manufacturers are responding to that move. Blaming it all onto Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear.

vrdiver
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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227674

Postby vrdiver » June 7th, 2019, 9:36 am

I've read quite a few "Brexit caused "X" type of posts recently, and whilst I don't think Brexit is a great idea, I do see a problem with piling every negative news item at the feet of Brexit; namely, that it lowers the bar for a "successful" Brexit.

To explain. When we were promised a trip to the land of sun and unicorns, Brexit could be defined as a failure if it turned out there were no unicorns and it was a little bit cloudy. Once the "Brexit=Armaggedon" card is played, Brexit is a failure only if Armaggedon actually occurs. Anything less and you end up with "see, I told you Brexit wasn't going to be as bad as you claimed".

Reason for posting: if you really think an event is the direct cause of Brexit, then fine, raise it as such and feel free to hammer home your point, but if there might be an alternative or more complex or compound set of reasons that could reasonably explain said event, then it's worth, IMHO, taking the time to consider those as well. If posting about a future consequence, every time you get your "Brexit will cause X" prediction wrong, it shores up the "Brexit is better than expected" side of the debate, which may not be quite what you were aiming for!

An example: If we vote to Leave, there will have to be an emergency budget..." A simple, stark warning, but one which didn't discuss alternatives and which, when it consequently turned out to be wrong, strengthened the argument that "Remain got this forecast wrong, so all other Remain forecasts are wrong".

Equally applies to Leave supporters of course, but negative news items do seem to predominate.

VRD

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227675

Postby SteMiS » June 7th, 2019, 9:37 am

richfool wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Another car plant which just happens to be based in the UK, pure coincidence obviously, to close...



https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... bs-at-risk

Here's Minford, who is the Brexiteers economist of reference, accepting in 2012 that Brexit will mean the total collapse of the UK car industry

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/statu ... 3400243201

We can't say we weren't warned, even if now Brexiteers are trying to pretend it would have happened anyway. Ford is just the beginning...

The decline in the (global) market for petrol and particularly diesel-engined cars has been underway for some time. The move is towards electric cars and manufacturers are responding to that move. Blaming it all onto Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear.


SKY NEWS (2022) - figures released today show unemployment reached a new record as the country enters it's third year in recession. The lock in at the Nissan plant in Sunderland enters its sixth month as employees continue their protest against the final closure of production. On foreign exchanges the pound hit a new low, dropping below parity against the Euro, as the Bank of England admitted further measures will be required to shore up the balance sheets of UK banks as mortgage arrears reach record levels. Commercial property prices in central London dropped another 10% as the drift of financial institutions to Frankfurt and Dublin shows no sign of abating.

On LemonFool, Richfool commented - this was always going to happen. World trends etc. Technological change etc. Blaming it all on Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear...

Lol

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227678

Postby djbenedict » June 7th, 2019, 9:52 am

richfool wrote:The decline in the (global) market for petrol and particularly diesel-engined cars has been underway for some time. The move is towards electric cars and manufacturers are responding to that move. Blaming it all onto Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear.


If that was the only factor, you would see manufacturers opening proportionally the same number of electric propulsion/electric vehicle plants in the UK as they close fossil fuel oriented sites. But the "opening" part isn't happening in the UK, just the "closing". The "opening" is happening elsewhere.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227686

Postby richfool » June 7th, 2019, 10:02 am

djbenedict wrote:
richfool wrote:The decline in the (global) market for petrol and particularly diesel-engined cars has been underway for some time. The move is towards electric cars and manufacturers are responding to that move. Blaming it all onto Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear.


If that was the only factor, you would see manufacturers opening proportionally the same number of electric propulsion/electric vehicle plants in the UK as they close fossil fuel oriented sites. But the "opening" part isn't happening in the UK, just the "closing". The "opening" is happening elsewhere.

The new electric propulsion/electric vehicle plants and indeed battery manufacturing plants will come, once these products have been sufficiently developed, and will provide new opportunities for the UK, assuming we have left the EU by then and have a freer hand as to we we can do deals with.

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227688

Postby djbenedict » June 7th, 2019, 10:07 am

richfool wrote:
djbenedict wrote:
richfool wrote:The decline in the (global) market for petrol and particularly diesel-engined cars has been underway for some time. The move is towards electric cars and manufacturers are responding to that move. Blaming it all onto Brexit is just a continuing part of project fear.


If that was the only factor, you would see manufacturers opening proportionally the same number of electric propulsion/electric vehicle plants in the UK as they close fossil fuel oriented sites. But the "opening" part isn't happening in the UK, just the "closing". The "opening" is happening elsewhere.

The new electric propulsion/electric vehicle plants and indeed battery manufacturing plants will come, once these products have been sufficiently developed, and will provide new opportunities for the UK, assuming we have left the EU by then and have a freer hand as to we we can do deals with.


They are opening now elsewhere in the EU. Why not here?

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227718

Postby BobbyD » June 7th, 2019, 11:12 am

vrdiver wrote:I've read quite a few "Brexit caused "X" type of posts recently, and whilst I don't think Brexit is a great idea, I do see a problem with piling every negative news item at the feet of Brexit; namely, that it lowers the bar for a "successful" Brexit.

To explain. When we were promised a trip to the land of sun and unicorns, Brexit could be defined as a failure if it turned out there were no unicorns and it was a little bit cloudy. Once the "Brexit=Armaggedon" card is played, Brexit is a failure only if Armaggedon actually occurs. Anything less and you end up with "see, I told you Brexit wasn't going to be as bad as you claimed".

Reason for posting: if you really think an event is the direct cause of Brexit, then fine, raise it as such and feel free to hammer home your point, but if there might be an alternative or more complex or compound set of reasons that could reasonably explain said event, then it's worth, IMHO, taking the time to consider those as well. If posting about a future consequence, every time you get your "Brexit will cause X" prediction wrong, it shores up the "Brexit is better than expected" side of the debate, which may not be quite what you were aiming for!

An example: If we vote to Leave, there will have to be an emergency budget..." A simple, stark warning, but one which didn't discuss alternatives and which, when it consequently turned out to be wrong, strengthened the argument that "Remain got this forecast wrong, so all other Remain forecasts are wrong".

Equally applies to Leave supporters of course, but negative news items do seem to predominate.

VRD


As I said I'm sure it is a total coincidence that yet another British car plant is closing down. Electrification is causing billions of pounds worth of investment in factories and supply chains as companies, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, reshape their product line to manage their fleet emmissions/embrace the new technology. It offers plenty of opportunity to attract inward investment, yet all we get are plant closures. How unlucky must we be?

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Re: Business Reality verses Project Fear

#227746

Postby vrdiver » June 7th, 2019, 12:19 pm

BobbyD wrote:As I said I'm sure it is a total coincidence that yet another British car plant is closing down. Electrification is causing billions of pounds worth of investment in factories and supply chains as companies, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, reshape their product line to manage their fleet emmissions/embrace the new technology. It offers plenty of opportunity to attract inward investment, yet all we get are plant closures. How unlucky must we be?

You're pushing against an open door with me Bobby, but I think to make a compelling argument it would help to look at the reasons cited by the company, the economic case for investment (if there are any details about the new, foreign plant) and to consider whether, for example in the case of a Japanese company (which Ford/JLR aren't, but there was an example recently) where it was likely that a new EU-Japan FTA made the investment case for being anywhere in the EU let alone the UK, much weaker.

I'm wary of posts that claim X=Bad, Brexit=Bad, therefore X=Brexit as that is no more useful than Brexit=Opportunity without presenting a robust case of why it does. I get wound up by unsubstantiated Leave claims, and I'm pretty sure Leavers on these boards feel the same when they read unsubstantiated Remain claims.

VRD


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