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The Labour Party

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Wizard
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Re: The Labour Party

#221211

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2019, 8:38 am

JohnB wrote:Any attempt to eject NI will lead to people being murdered on the streets of London. It would trigger IndyRef2 in Scotland, and encourage bigotry generally. The government would fall, and extremists of all persuasions would gain more power. As a centrist who believes in tolerance, this would be dreadful.

And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?

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Re: The Labour Party

#221219

Postby anticrank » May 13th, 2019, 9:14 am

Wizard wrote:
JohnB wrote:Any attempt to eject NI will lead to people being murdered on the streets of London. It would trigger IndyRef2 in Scotland, and encourage bigotry generally. The government would fall, and extremists of all persuasions would gain more power. As a centrist who believes in tolerance, this would be dreadful.

And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?


The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.

NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221235

Postby Wizard » May 13th, 2019, 10:22 am

anticrank wrote:
Wizard wrote:
JohnB wrote:Any attempt to eject NI will lead to people being murdered on the streets of London. It would trigger IndyRef2 in Scotland, and encourage bigotry generally. The government would fall, and extremists of all persuasions would gain more power. As a centrist who believes in tolerance, this would be dreadful.

And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?


The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.

NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.

Surely that is not legally correct? The UK Parliament could pass a law forcing NI out. I am not suggesting it will happen, rather chalkenging the assertion that it could not happen.

The bottom line is that there seem to be 3 options given the NI : Ireland border point:
1. Stay in the EU
2. Leave under an arrangement with a Customs Union and participating in the Single Market
3. Leave without a UK-wide Customs Union and / or the Single Market but accept there will be a defacto customs border in the Irish Sea

Presumably 3. could be pushed through with a Parliamentary majority excluding the DUP, but that would then risk the extremists blowing people up, so may be considered a difficult route to go. So if NI can hold GB hostage then there is no option but a soft Brexit or Remain.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221241

Postby Alaric » May 13th, 2019, 10:43 am

Wizard wrote:
The bottom line is that there seem to be 3 options given the NI : Ireland border point:


There is a fourth option of sorts, namely to take the Republic with us. Free movement is an example where between the UK and the Republic it long predates the EU and Schengen and was recently reconfirmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48194071

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Re: The Labour Party

#221248

Postby anticrank » May 13th, 2019, 11:06 am

Wizard wrote:
anticrank wrote:
Wizard wrote:And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?


The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.

NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.

Surely that is not legally correct? The UK Parliament could pass a law forcing NI out. I am not suggesting it will happen, rather chalkenging the assertion that it could not happen.

The bottom line is that there seem to be 3 options given the NI : Ireland border point:
1. Stay in the EU
2. Leave under an arrangement with a Customs Union and participating in the Single Market
3. Leave without a UK-wide Customs Union and / or the Single Market but accept there will be a defacto customs border in the Irish Sea

Presumably 3. could be pushed through with a Parliamentary majority excluding the DUP, but that would then risk the extremists blowing people up, so may be considered a difficult route to go. So if NI can hold GB hostage then there is no option but a soft Brexit or Remain.


I did not say it could not happen, I said it will not happen. Legally, it can't happen without violating the GFA, which requires consent for any change to the constitutional status of NI. (Nothing in the WA changes the constitutional status of NI, by the way.)

Politically, it is inconceivable. NI will probably leave the UK by consent in due course, so why commit the democratic outrage of forcing it out, creating a legitimate grievance on the Unionist side that would provoke and sustain political violence? There could be no remedy for such a grievance and therefore no clear means of ending the violence.

It's unlikely that the RoI would want unity under those conditions. If there is to be Irish unity, it will have to happen in accord with the GFA, if it is to have democratic legitimacy and avoid another long-running episode of violence.

ursaminortaur
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Re: The Labour Party

#221281

Postby ursaminortaur » May 13th, 2019, 12:46 pm

Alaric wrote:
Wizard wrote:
The bottom line is that there seem to be 3 options given the NI : Ireland border point:


There is a fourth option of sorts, namely to take the Republic with us. Free movement is an example where between the UK and the Republic it long predates the EU and Schengen and was recently reconfirmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48194071


Given the history of Ireland it is difficult to see them wanting to leave the EU and become the junior partner in some trade relationship with the UK. Although there was some minority support for leaving the EU in Ireland back in 2013 - 29% - that has fallen dramatically since then.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112

While 29 per cent believed in 2013 Ireland should leave the union if the UK left, the figure is down now to 11 per cent – apparently in reaction to the experience of Brexit.

Ninety two per cent of those surveyed – 96 per cent in Dublin – now say Ireland should stay in. Support is greatest in Dublin (96 per cent) and among 18-24 year olds (97 per cent).

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Re: The Labour Party

#221286

Postby Charlottesquare » May 13th, 2019, 12:58 pm

Wizard wrote:
anticrank wrote:
Wizard wrote:And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?


The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.

NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.

Surely that is not legally correct? The UK Parliament could pass a law forcing NI out. I am not suggesting it will happen, rather chalkenging the assertion that it could not happen.

.


Not convinced under international law that the UK Government could do such a thing to part of its own population without legal challenge at an international level; ECHR et al spring to mind

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Re: The Labour Party

#221296

Postby anticrank » May 13th, 2019, 1:40 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
Wizard wrote:
anticrank wrote:
The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.

NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.

Surely that is not legally correct? The UK Parliament could pass a law forcing NI out. I am not suggesting it will happen, rather chalkenging the assertion that it could not happen.

.


Not convinced under international law that the UK Government could do such a thing to part of its own population without legal challenge at an international level; ECHR et al spring to mind


I'd have thought so. Flies in the face of the principle of self-determination, which I think is enshrined in international law. Still, it would be illegal under the GFA. There is no doubt about that.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221317

Postby dionaeamuscipula » May 13th, 2019, 3:18 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Labour is deeply split on all this, so you can't really talk about 'what Labour wants' re Brexit. There is no united view.

Most of Labour want to stay in, but Corbyn wants out, partly because he has always been hostile to the EU (calling it Frankenstein as I recall) and because it could seriously impede implemention of his policies if elected. Free movement of capital and preservation of property rights could be a problem for him.


You haven't mentioned the issue Corbyn has with free movement of people. His view is that FoM increases supply of labour and therefore causes wages to fall. Get rid of FoM and wages in the UK will rise*. While this is simple demand/supply economics, given that low end wages are kept artificially high through the minimum wage, that we are already at full employment and have been for some time and wages are only now beginning to rise, it is arguable that this view is over simplistic, not least because it is extremely easy to shift employment to lower cost economies. Corbyn's answer to this is to bring in Trump style protectionism using public procurement as a tool.

DM

*which rather begs the question of why Corbyn seems to care only about wages for UK workers and not about wages for other low-paid Europeans (and yes, I know he is voted for by UK workers not others...)

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Re: The Labour Party

#221459

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 14th, 2019, 8:10 am

More pressure within Labour Party activists to define itself as a Remain Party:

Jeremy Corbyn has again rebuffed the demands of many of his own activists for Labour to become the party of remain at the European elections later this month, insisting he will stand on the “common ground”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -elections

Jezza subsequently deflects this with his usual many vs few argument. As if the many are one homogeneous mass.

If nothing else, he does seem to be consistent.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221659

Postby gryffron » May 14th, 2019, 9:36 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:Membership of the Single Market does require allowing freedom of movement of people

There's no fundamental reason why "a" Single Market requires the free movement of people. Although I concede the EU will not accept one without the other.

Gryff

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Re: The Labour Party

#221676

Postby zico » May 15th, 2019, 12:33 am

In the recent Brexit TV programme as seen from Europe, i thought Guy Verhofstadt gave a very good brief explanation of why the Single Market needs the 4 freedoms (capital,labour, goods, services) and freedom of movement can't simply be taken out. The gist of it was that various areas of the EU each have different competitive advantages, and the 4 freedoms enable the most efficient allocation and flow of resources, by removing barriers to movement, but removing any single one of the freedoms would give rise to market inefficiency.

It's an idea that free-market laissez-faire supporters (like Farage) should love, and advocates of centralised control (like Corbyn) should hate - which is probably why Corbyn is successfully curbing his EU enthusiasm. But the odd thing is that Farage hates the Single Market (or says he does) though in everything else, he seems very keen on removing barriers. Just another of those Brexit ironies.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221718

Postby GoSeigen » May 15th, 2019, 9:24 am

zico wrote:In the recent Brexit TV programme as seen from Europe, i thought Guy Verhofstadt gave a very good brief explanation of why the Single Market needs the 4 freedoms (capital,labour, goods, services) and freedom of movement can't simply be taken out. The gist of it was that various areas of the EU each have different competitive advantages, and the 4 freedoms enable the most efficient allocation and flow of resources, by removing barriers to movement, but removing any single one of the freedoms would give rise to market inefficiency.


Thatcher understood this, why don't Eurosceptic Conservatives?

GS

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Re: The Labour Party

#221749

Postby SteMiS » May 15th, 2019, 10:30 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:More pressure within Labour Party activists to define itself as a Remain Party:

Jeremy Corbyn has again rebuffed the demands of many of his own activists for Labour to become the party of remain at the European elections later this month, insisting he will stand on the “common ground”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -elections

Jezza subsequently deflects this with his usual many vs few argument. As if the many are one homogeneous mass.

If nothing else, he does seem to be consistent.

I think it's also probably too late. Latest opinion polls shows the Lib Dems within 3 points of Labour

https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 6930221058

and seemingly gaining ground daily.

The b-ollock-s to brexit slogan is a real winner in my view. No only is it obvious what it means but it also captures the sense of anger amongst Remainers about the direction the country is at least attempting to go.

If Labour are beaten by the Lib Dems in the popular vote then I genuinely think we could see a coup attempt against Corbyn. Surely that's the Conservative's worst nightmare. Labour with a half decent leader would slaughter the Conservatives in any election, especially if they are still haemorrhaging support to the Brexit Party.

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Re: The Labour Party

#221757

Postby dionaeamuscipula » May 15th, 2019, 10:58 am

GoSeigen wrote:
zico wrote:In the recent Brexit TV programme as seen from Europe, i thought Guy Verhofstadt gave a very good brief explanation of why the Single Market needs the 4 freedoms (capital,labour, goods, services) and freedom of movement can't simply be taken out. The gist of it was that various areas of the EU each have different competitive advantages, and the 4 freedoms enable the most efficient allocation and flow of resources, by removing barriers to movement, but removing any single one of the freedoms would give rise to market inefficiency.


Thatcher understood this, why don't Eurosceptic Conservatives?

GS


Because they are free marketeers only within their own silo.

Of course you could say the same about the EU - its just a bigger silo. However the EU is essentially expansionist, while the Eurosceptic Conservatives are essentially contractionist.

DM

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Re: The Labour Party

#221849

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 15th, 2019, 5:19 pm

SteMiS wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:More pressure within Labour Party activists to define itself as a Remain Party:

Jeremy Corbyn has again rebuffed the demands of many of his own activists for Labour to become the party of remain at the European elections later this month, insisting he will stand on the “common ground”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -elections

Jezza subsequently deflects this with his usual many vs few argument. As if the many are one homogeneous mass.

If nothing else, he does seem to be consistent.

I think it's also probably too late. Latest opinion polls shows the Lib Dems within 3 points of Labour

Wooa!
That's cool. I know they'd start to "upset some people" but I didn't realise they were that close.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 6930221058

and seemingly gaining ground daily.

The b-ollock-s to brexit slogan is a real winner in my view. No only is it obvious what it means but it also captures the sense of anger amongst Remainers about the direction the country is at least attempting to go.

If Labour are beaten by the Lib Dems in the popular vote then I genuinely think we could see a coup attempt against Corbyn. Surely that's the Conservative's worst nightmare. Labour with a half decent leader would slaughter the Conservatives in any election, especially if they are still haemorrhaging support to the Brexit Party.

Interesting points. I personally would rate a Labour party with maybe TW or YC at the front.

Perhaps this Brex thing ain't so bad afterall. Every cloud and all that....

Matt

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Re: The Labour Party

#222206

Postby Itsallaguess » May 16th, 2019, 6:45 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
I personally would rate a Labour party with maybe TW or YC at the front.

Perhaps this Brex thing ain't so bad after all. Every cloud and all that....


Hang on - you think the Referendum result should be ignored because you think 'the financial risks have not been properly considered', and yet you would personally see a Labour Government as a silver lining?

Good luck with that one Matt.....

Itsallaguess

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Re: The Labour Party

#222209

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 16th, 2019, 6:57 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
I personally would rate a Labour party with maybe TW or YC at the front.

Perhaps this Brex thing ain't so bad after all. Every cloud and all that....


Hang on - you think the Referendum result should be ignored because you think 'the financial risks have not been properly considered', and yet you would personally see a Labour Government as a silver lining?

Good luck with that one Matt.....

Itsallaguess

It's more tongue in cheek to be honest mate. It just seems that Brexit has sent a torpedo into both the Tory and Labour ranks in my naive opinion.

But on a more serious note, what was it like in private investor terms, back in the last Labour Era, i.e. Blair/Brown? Was it all that bad? I'm just curious. I wasn't even vaguely interested in investing then. But economically speaking was the B+B team really that much different than what we had with Cameron etc?

Would Labour with TW or YC in charge be really that bad? I'd assumed that those two are a lot more moderate than JC.

Sorry that's lots of questions!

Matt

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Re: The Labour Party

#222211

Postby Itsallaguess » May 16th, 2019, 7:03 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
But on a more serious note, what was it like in private investor terms, back in the last Labour Era, i.e. Blair/Brown? Was it all that bad?

I'm just curious. I wasn't even vaguely interested in investing then. But economically speaking was the B+B team really that much different than what we had with Cameron etc?


Blair and Brown weren't Labour.

These guys are Labour.

Don't worry though Matt - when it all goes pear-shaped you'll be able to claim that 'not all the facts were known' at the time of the next General Election, and no doubt campaign to get the vote ignored....

Oh the irony - enjoy the trip...

Itsallaguess

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Re: The Labour Party

#222212

Postby Wizard » May 16th, 2019, 7:05 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
I personally would rate a Labour party with maybe TW or YC at the front.

Perhaps this Brex thing ain't so bad after all. Every cloud and all that....


Hang on - you think the Referendum result should be ignored because you think 'the financial risks have not been properly considered', and yet you would personally see a Labour Government as a silver lining?

Good luck with that one Matt.....

Itsallaguess

It's more tongue in cheek to be honest mate. It just seems that Brexit has sent a torpedo into both the Tory and Labour ranks in my naive opinion.

But on a more serious note, what was it like in private investor terms, back in the last Labour Era, i.e. Blair/Brown? Was it all that bad? I'm just curious. I wasn't even vaguely interested in investing then. But economically speaking was the B+B team really that much different than what we had with Cameron etc?

Would Labour with TW or YC in charge be really that bad? I'd assumed that those two are a lot more moderate than JC.

Sorry that's lots of questions!

Matt

You think the Blair / Brown labour Govts are a good indication of what a Corbyn Govt would be like. I am lost for words as that is well beyond naive.


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