Wizard wrote: anticrank wrote:
Wizard wrote:And the alternative that the destiny of the UK is held hostage by a few people willing to start blowing people up is not dreadful?
The risk of violence is a simple reality, but it's only one simple reality. The others are that the invisible border in Ireland is part of the fabric of life there now, politically, socially and economically. And no Irish PM could ever announce that he was to collaborate with the British in strengthening partition in Ireland. That is an inescapable reality.
NI will not be forced out of the UK without its consent. So you can forget about that.
Surely that is not legally correct? The UK Parliament could pass a law forcing NI out. I am not suggesting it will happen, rather chalkenging the assertion that it could not happen.
The bottom line is that there seem to be 3 options given the NI : Ireland border point:
1. Stay in the EU
2. Leave under an arrangement with a Customs Union and participating in the Single Market
3. Leave without a UK-wide Customs Union and / or the Single Market but accept there will be a defacto customs border in the Irish Sea
Presumably 3. could be pushed through with a Parliamentary majority excluding the DUP, but that would then risk the extremists blowing people up, so may be considered a difficult route to go. So if NI can hold GB hostage then there is no option but a soft Brexit or Remain.
I did not say it could not happen, I said it will not happen. Legally, it can't happen without violating the GFA, which requires consent for any change to the constitutional status of NI. (Nothing in the WA changes the constitutional status of NI, by the way.)
Politically, it is inconceivable. NI will probably leave the UK by consent in due course, so why commit the democratic outrage of forcing it out, creating a legitimate grievance on the Unionist side that would provoke and sustain political violence? There could be no remedy for such a grievance and therefore no clear means of ending the violence.
It's unlikely that the RoI would want unity under those conditions. If there is to be Irish unity, it will have to happen in accord with the GFA, if it is to have democratic legitimacy and avoid another long-running episode of violence.