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Brexit all over?

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Spet0789
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Re: Brexit all over?

#207576

Postby Spet0789 » March 14th, 2019, 7:45 am

Nimrod103 wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:There is a delicious hypocrisy in putting the same question repeatedly to the HoC in the name of democracy while swearing blind that to do the same with the broader electorate is an affront to democracy.


Can you point out the link between democracy and the Houses of Parliament? It is very tenuous.


I think perhaps you’re getting confused by the differences between direct democracy and representative democracy. We are the latter.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207581

Postby Nimrod103 » March 14th, 2019, 8:19 am

Spet0789 wrote:
Nimrod103 wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:There is a delicious hypocrisy in putting the same question repeatedly to the HoC in the name of democracy while swearing blind that to do the same with the broader electorate is an affront to democracy.


Can you point out the link between democracy and the Houses of Parliament? It is very tenuous.


I think perhaps you’re getting confused by the differences between direct democracy and representative democracy. We are the latter.


What aspect of the House of Lords is representative democracy? A house full of convicted theives (Uddin) and self confessed conspirators in child abuse (Steel)?
Of course who would have guessed that by 'representative democracy' you mean they represent their own views, not those of their constituents? Next election should be interesting.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207583

Postby Quint » March 14th, 2019, 8:25 am

I have no idea how the next election will play out but my guess would be the lowest turnout in history and a hung parliament.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207584

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 8:26 am

Looking at the amendments tabled so far (they have until 10.30am to table more) it looks like Bercow will struggle not to put the concept of a second referendum forward as an amendment to the motion tonight. Of the eight amendments tabled one calls for withdrawl of A50; one calls for a new negotiating team; one calls for something like indicative votes and five either call for a second referendum or call for a second referendum to be ruled out.

This is getting so nuanced now I have given up on media coverage and wherever possible look at primary sources.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... tAnchor002

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207585

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 8:27 am

Quint wrote:I have no idea how the next election will play out but my guess would be the lowest turnout in history and a hung parliament.

I was rather thinking a movement to refuse to re-elect any current sitting MP of whatever party could come about.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207589

Postby Quint » March 14th, 2019, 8:54 am

Wizard wrote:
Quint wrote:I have no idea how the next election will play out but my guess would be the lowest turnout in history and a hung parliament.

I was rather thinking a movement to refuse to re-elect any current sitting MP of whatever party could come about.


I have thought about that, but that would mean having a government of people with no political experience.

Would that be better? I have no idea but I think there are plenty of people out there who would make very good politicians, but by their nature would not go near the job and who would blame them.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207591

Postby vrdiver » March 14th, 2019, 9:02 am

Quint wrote:
Wizard wrote:
Quint wrote:I have no idea how the next election will play out but my guess would be the lowest turnout in history and a hung parliament.

I was rather thinking a movement to refuse to re-elect any current sitting MP of whatever party could come about.


I have thought about that, but that would mean having a government of people with no political experience.

Would that be better? I have no idea but I think there are plenty of people out there who would make very good politicians, but by their nature would not go near the job and who would blame them.

It would also lead to a raft of politicians who are very passionate about getting rid of the current crew, but who don't have any other common cause; we've just had two+ years of watching what happens when a bunch of MPs can agree what they don't want but not what they do.

If there is a lower turnout (which I suspect is likely) would it be Brexiteers who are more likely to not vote, if they feel they've been denied meaningful democracy in the first place?

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207597

Postby Quint » March 14th, 2019, 9:10 am

vrdiver wrote:
Quint wrote:
Wizard wrote:I was rather thinking a movement to refuse to re-elect any current sitting MP of whatever party could come about.


I have thought about that, but that would mean having a government of people with no political experience.

Would that be better? I have no idea but I think there are plenty of people out there who would make very good politicians, but by their nature would not go near the job and who would blame them.

It would also lead to a raft of politicians who are very passionate about getting rid of the current crew, but who don't have any other common cause; we've just had two+ years of watching what happens when a bunch of MPs can agree what they don't want but not what they do.

If there is a lower turnout (which I suspect is likely) would it be Brexiteers who are more likely to not vote, if they feel they've been denied meaningful democracy in the first place?


Quite possibly, especially among the older generation. Maybe some of the younger generation have learned what happens when you do not vote.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207604

Postby johnhemming » March 14th, 2019, 9:24 am

Wizard wrote:https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/ob190314.htm#_idTextAnchor002

Primary sources are almost always worth a look at if it is worth spending sufficient time on an issue (which this IMO is one of those issues).

The substantive is a motion that I would think only headbangers will vote against. One thing to look at is how the DUP vote on the substantive.

I still don't think the DUP will want to support May's deal. Article 62 of the Vienna Convention can be used to pull out of the overall deal, but that then immediately goes to a nasty no deal (rather than the nicer one we face without an extension) and the backstop will be temporary until it is decided formally that it is permanent and I would never expect it to be decided to be permanent. There are many temporary things that last a long time.

Hence I am not surprised if Steve Baker wants to follow the position of the DUP. The government might pick up the majority of the ERG on the back of this motion which I would think would pass.

It is also possible that The Speaker might reject any attempt by May to retable the deal although if there is a majority for her proposal she might get a majority for suspending standing orders which would override the Speaker on this.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207613

Postby gryffron » March 14th, 2019, 9:58 am

A few thoughts.
1) A backstop with a time limit isn't a backstop. So I can see why the "agree-ers" wouldn't want such.
2) If we leave with no deal there is no backstop anyway. So the EU refusal to discuss further seems odd.
3) The GFA stands regardless, so we don't actually need the backstop. It is just re-affirming a previous agreement.
4) Any international agreement can be broken. The USA does it all the time (Paris). I guess politicians consider it a bit underhand to talk about this. Though they must all know.
5) Despite endless talk about "crashing out", and the endless uncertainty of brexit, the UK economy continues to be strong. Growth has slowed, yes, but it has globally. We're doing better than Germany for example. Which just avoided technical recession this quarter after contraction late last year. Odd how the media with all their brexit gloom stories never mention that.

Gryff

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207651

Postby Snorvey » March 14th, 2019, 12:26 pm

Donald sticks his oar in....

My Administration looks forward to negotiating a large scale Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. The potential is unlimited!

:D

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 4518130688

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207652

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 12:29 pm

This is getting testy, currently a row going on about selected amendments as ERG one not chosen. However, one calling for a second referendum has been chosen.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207653

Postby Snorvey » March 14th, 2019, 12:34 pm

Just get them to vote on them all - that way there's no bitching and whining.

Oh, and lock them in until it's done.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207658

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 12:45 pm

Snorvey wrote:Just get them to vote on them all - that way there's no bitching and whining.

Oh, and lock them in until it's done.

Well, of course technically the doors are locked during voting.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207662

Postby mike » March 14th, 2019, 12:56 pm

Wizard wrote:This is getting testy, currently a row going on about selected amendments as ERG one not chosen. However, one calling for a second referendum has been chosen.

Can't see the ERG problem here.

ERG amendment ruling out 2nd referendum - ERG would have voted for it, but whipping status unknown.

Amendment enabling 2nd referendum - ERG will vote against it, and as 2nd ref is not government policy, likely be a whipped vote against.

The ERG may now have a better chance of their desired outcome.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207663

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 12:58 pm

Wizard wrote:This is getting testy, currently a row going on about selected amendments as ERG one not chosen. However, one calling for a second referendum has been chosen.


Demonstration of Parliamentary sovereignty. I'm sure secretly they are chuffed to bits.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207665

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 1:08 pm

Is it me or are Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn looking a whole lot more impressive and demonstrating more leadership these days than the entire Opposition Front Bench?

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207667

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 1:13 pm

Wizard wrote:Is it me or are Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn looking a whole lot more impressive and demonstrating more leadership these days than the entire Opposition Front Bench?


Starmer would be the front bench exception. Cherry and Grieve have also been top notch.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207672

Postby SteMiS » March 14th, 2019, 1:35 pm

Wizard wrote:Is it me or are Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn looking a whole lot more impressive and demonstrating more leadership these days than the entire Opposition Front Bench?

The Labour front bench is pretty much what is left after anyone of any ability declined to serve under Corbyn. Other than Starmer and Watson it's hard to think of anyone else who would get close to a look in under normal circumstances. Last night on Peston, for example, to press their case, Labour served up Angela Rayner (the former care worker, who left school at 16 without qualifications, and is now Shadow Secretary of State for Education) who then proceeded to contradict pretty much Labour's entire policy on a second referendum (whether you agree with it or not).

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Re: Brexit all over?

#207704

Postby Wizard » March 14th, 2019, 4:31 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Wizard wrote:Is it me or are Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn looking a whole lot more impressive and demonstrating more leadership these days than the entire Opposition Front Bench?


Starmer would be the front bench exception. Cherry and Grieve have also been top notch.

Agreed.


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