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Brexit all over?

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vrdiver
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Re: Brexit all over?

#208014

Postby vrdiver » March 15th, 2019, 8:45 pm

Brexit may still mean Brexit, but "No deal is better than a bad deal" appears to have morphed into "A bad deal is better than no deal".

Whilst I don't want to leave with no deal, I can see no way that MPs who resoundingly rejected May's deal twice, could support it on a third attempt.
Surely it would be better to take the time to get Brexit right than to rush into a folly that we'll regret for decades?

There's also the galling prospect of having to "assume the position" for the DUP as well...

VRD

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208026

Postby JohnB » March 15th, 2019, 10:18 pm

Of course this isn't the permanent deal, its just a transitional one. We'll have all this crap over again in a couple of years when a trade deal is decided. And there is no sign of anyone competent arising to bat for Team GB.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208033

Postby Wizard » March 15th, 2019, 11:15 pm

vrdiver wrote:Brexit may still mean Brexit, but "No deal is better than a bad deal" appears to have morphed into "A bad deal is better than no deal".

Whilst I don't want to leave with no deal, I can see no way that MPs who resoundingly rejected May's deal twice, could support it on a third attempt.
Surely it would be better to take the time to get Brexit right than to rush into a folly that we'll regret for decades?

There's also the galling prospect of having to "assume the position" for the DUP as well...

VRD

Except it seems May is willing to throw money at the DUP to buy votes for her deal. I can't write on her what I really think about her, but I do hope history recognises how dreadful she has been and that she lives long enough to know how she will be remembered.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208059

Postby tikunetih » March 16th, 2019, 11:14 am

JohnB wrote:Of course this isn't the permanent deal, its just a transitional one. We'll have all this crap over again in a couple of years when a trade deal is decided. And there is no sign of anyone competent arising to bat for Team GB.



The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is a simple agreement (albeit running to 585-pages), covering just citizens' rights, NI border and settling our account, in order to secure a short transition period during which nothing much changes for the UK so as to allow the future UK/EU relationship to be discussed during a period of relative stability.

This WA should have been a quick and simple thing to agree...

The future relationship that we need to discuss and agree with the EU will be a least two - maybe three - orders of magnitude greater in scope and complexity than the WA, and will tie up huge resources over numerous years. Much of politics and a good chunk of the civil service (plus a bazillion consultants) will do nothing else for the foreseeable.

Furthermore, just as our EU membership entailed a great deal of ongoing work to manage and maintain, so will managing our future relationship with the EU, but more so, because nothing will be outsourced to the EC, so the discussions with our EU neighbours will never be over.

For most UK adults, in one way or another "Brexit" is going to be an ever present albatross around our necks for the rest of our lives.


NB "leaving without a deal" would change none of this; our modern economy is very tightly integrated with those of our closest neighbours so we will have an ever-growing list of things to discuss and agree with them; all "leaving without a deal" would achieve is to change the backdrop of these discussions from one of relative calm to enormous chaos, making the task even more difficult.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208070

Postby SteMiS » March 16th, 2019, 12:25 pm

Wizard wrote:
vrdiver wrote:Brexit may still mean Brexit, but "No deal is better than a bad deal" appears to have morphed into "A bad deal is better than no deal".

Whilst I don't want to leave with no deal, I can see no way that MPs who resoundingly rejected May's deal twice, could support it on a third attempt.
Surely it would be better to take the time to get Brexit right than to rush into a folly that we'll regret for decades?

There's also the galling prospect of having to "assume the position" for the DUP as well...

VRD

Except it seems May is willing to throw money at the DUP to buy votes for her deal. I can't write on her what I really think about her, but I do hope history recognises how dreadful she has been and that she lives long enough to know how she will be remembered.

May's deal seems disliked by Remainers and Leavers alike. The only one's who seem to like it are the sheep on the Conservative benches and (possibly) the DUP.

Argue what we may over the mandate given by the referendum but I don't see how anyone can argue that it gave the British government carte blanche to handover (potentially) irrevocable control over the UK's terms of trade to (what will be) a third party*.

[* That's not strictly 100% accurate as presumably we could exit the backstop if we handed over part of the UK (NI) to another country (RoI). Not that that is any better. Indeed if I were the DUP, that's what I'd be most concerned about long term.

This is all being put in place by what once prided itself on being a unionist party]

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208071

Postby JohnB » March 16th, 2019, 12:29 pm

Indeed for all those areas where we could devolve work to an European body, we will now have to have our own regulatory body to both define UK regulation and monitor EU regulations, and marry the 2 together. And while we currently have strong influence in EU technical decisions, we will have none.

The Galileo GPS system (to be run by Failing Grayling no doubt) is the most ludicrous example, but there must be vast numbers of committees and quangos up and down the country planning to double up their workload. Even on things we agree on there will now be different implementation dates, and for many things MPs will be able to put their oar in to muddy the waters. Taking back control of banana shape just means lots more bureaucracy over fruit.

The great repeal bill was just a cut and paste job, transferring EU law into UK law, the right wingers who thing we can repeal swathes of regulation to make our economy more efficient (and the poor more downtrodden) forget that anything exported will be caught in others' regulations again, with the added layer of customs and tarrifs.

No country is an island, as Dunn nearly said.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208180

Postby richfool » March 17th, 2019, 12:11 pm

Spet0789 wrote:
richfool wrote:I am sure we would overcome the additional complications of a no deal Brexit. We managed before we joined the EU. Where there's a will there's a way.


This is a ridiculous statement. In 1000 BC we managed without roads, science and medicine. It doesn’t mean we should get rid of them.

Over the past 40 years our economy has developed within the structures of the EEC/EU. Suggesting we managed before is a bit like telling a scuba diver 50m down that they managed without their mouthpiece when they were back in the boat.

No deal Brexit is for the economy like putting your car in first gear while on the motorway.
My comment was less ridiculous than your comparisons.

There is far too much fear mongering by remainers. If, as you say, we have developed over the last 40 years, then we will be better able to deal with any issues arising.

I just hope that we will exit on 29th March, and you will then find out.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208203

Postby Charlottesquare » March 17th, 2019, 2:20 pm

JohnB wrote:Indeed for all those areas where we could devolve work to an European body, we will now have to have our own regulatory body to both define UK regulation and monitor EU regulations, and marry the 2 together. And while we currently have strong influence in EU technical decisions, we will have none.

The Galileo GPS system (to be run by Failing Grayling no doubt) is the most ludicrous example, but there must be vast numbers of committees and quangos up and down the country planning to double up their workload. Even on things we agree on there will now be different implementation dates, and for many things MPs will be able to put their oar in to muddy the waters. Taking back control of banana shape just means lots more bureaucracy over fruit.

The great repeal bill was just a cut and paste job, transferring EU law into UK law, the right wingers who thing we can repeal swathes of regulation to make our economy more efficient (and the poor more downtrodden) forget that anything exported will be caught in others' regulations again, with the added layer of customs and tarrifs.

No country is an island, as Dunn nearly said.


Donne.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208205

Postby Wizard » March 17th, 2019, 2:45 pm

No new vote on May's deal without DUP support

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47602746

Theresa May's Brexit deal will not return to the Commons this week unless it has support from the DUP and Tory MPs, the chancellor says...

...He did not rule out a financial settlement for Northern Ireland if the DUP backed the deal...

...But he warned that, even with the DUP's support, a "short extension" would be needed to pass legislation in Parliament, adding that it was now "physically impossible" for the UK to leave the EU on 29 March.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208206

Postby Spet0789 » March 17th, 2019, 2:52 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
JohnB wrote:Indeed for all those areas where we could devolve work to an European body, we will now have to have our own regulatory body to both define UK regulation and monitor EU regulations, and marry the 2 together. And while we currently have strong influence in EU technical decisions, we will have none.

The Galileo GPS system (to be run by Failing Grayling no doubt) is the most ludicrous example, but there must be vast numbers of committees and quangos up and down the country planning to double up their workload. Even on things we agree on there will now be different implementation dates, and for many things MPs will be able to put their oar in to muddy the waters. Taking back control of banana shape just means lots more bureaucracy over fruit.

The great repeal bill was just a cut and paste job, transferring EU law into UK law, the right wingers who thing we can repeal swathes of regulation to make our economy more efficient (and the poor more downtrodden) forget that anything exported will be caught in others' regulations again, with the added layer of customs and tarrifs.

No country is an island, as Dunn nearly said.


Donne.


In the Brexit context, we all have been Donne.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208212

Postby Spet0789 » March 17th, 2019, 3:22 pm

richfool wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:
richfool wrote:I am sure we would overcome the additional complications of a no deal Brexit. We managed before we joined the EU. Where there's a will there's a way.


This is a ridiculous statement. In 1000 BC we managed without roads, science and medicine. It doesn’t mean we should get rid of them.

Over the past 40 years our economy has developed within the structures of the EEC/EU. Suggesting we managed before is a bit like telling a scuba diver 50m down that they managed without their mouthpiece when they were back in the boat.

No deal Brexit is for the economy like putting your car in first gear while on the motorway.
My comment was less ridiculous than your comparisons.

There is far too much fear mongering by remainers. If, as you say, we have developed over the last 40 years, then we will be better able to deal with any issues arising.

I just hope that we will exit on 29th March, and you will then find out.


The “fear mongering” as you call it, tends to come from the people who will actually have to deal with the issues you refer to. Exporters, financial services businesses, pharma companies, supermarkets, haulage companies, motor manufacturers, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and so on.

Our economy has developed to depend on free and frictionless trade. We will lose that (or worsen the friction) with around 70% of our overseas markets if we have a no deal Brexit.

Thankfully now it seems less likely that we will have to put this to the ultimate empirical test.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208217

Postby stewamax » March 17th, 2019, 3:41 pm

Charlottesquare wrote:
JohnB wrote:No country is an island, as Dunn nearly said.
Donne.

Brexit or no, we still like to confuse Johnny Foreigner: the spelling may be Donne but we pronounce it Dunn

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208224

Postby XFool » March 17th, 2019, 4:35 pm

Spet0789 wrote:The “fear mongering” as you call it, tends to come from the people who will actually have to deal with the issues you refer to. Exporters, financial services businesses, pharma companies, supermarkets, haulage companies, motor manufacturers, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and so on.

Our economy has developed to depend on free and frictionless trade. We will lose that (or worsen the friction) with around 70% of our overseas markets if we have a no deal Brexit.

Thankfully now it seems less likely that we will have to put this to the ultimate empirical test.

The only trouble with that is, should things still go badly under the deal, we may have to look forward to years of recriminations and moans of: "We should have left with no deal!" :(

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208225

Postby ursaminortaur » March 17th, 2019, 4:47 pm

XFool wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:The “fear mongering” as you call it, tends to come from the people who will actually have to deal with the issues you refer to. Exporters, financial services businesses, pharma companies, supermarkets, haulage companies, motor manufacturers, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and so on.

Our economy has developed to depend on free and frictionless trade. We will lose that (or worsen the friction) with around 70% of our overseas markets if we have a no deal Brexit.

Thankfully now it seems less likely that we will have to put this to the ultimate empirical test.

The only trouble with that is, should things still go badly under the deal, we may have to look forward to years of recriminations and moans of: "We should have left with no deal!" :(


There will be years of recriminations and moans whatever happens : whether we leave with nodeal, with May's withdrawal agreement or we remain.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208226

Postby JohnB » March 17th, 2019, 4:48 pm

Whatever the outcome, 2/3 of the country will be bitter for decades. My approach is to push hard for the outcome I want now, but once its decided, to ignore every news story, refuse to join any conversation on the matter. Its clear that the danger of becoming politically involved is that you become bitter and twisted when the world doen't listen.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208249

Postby BobbyD » March 17th, 2019, 6:46 pm

JohnB wrote:Whatever the outcome, 2/3 of the country will be bitter for decades. My approach is to push hard for the outcome I want now, but once its decided, to ignore every news story, refuse to join any conversation on the matter. Its clear that the danger of becoming politically involved is that you become bitter and twisted when the world doen't listen.


If May gets her way one person will be happy and 66,039,999 people will be livid!

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208271

Postby Spet0789 » March 17th, 2019, 8:12 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
XFool wrote:
Spet0789 wrote:The “fear mongering” as you call it, tends to come from the people who will actually have to deal with the issues you refer to. Exporters, financial services businesses, pharma companies, supermarkets, haulage companies, motor manufacturers, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and so on.

Our economy has developed to depend on free and frictionless trade. We will lose that (or worsen the friction) with around 70% of our overseas markets if we have a no deal Brexit.

Thankfully now it seems less likely that we will have to put this to the ultimate empirical test.

The only trouble with that is, should things still go badly under the deal, we may have to look forward to years of recriminations and moans of: "We should have left with no deal!" :(


There will be years of recriminations and moans whatever happens : whether we leave with nodeal, with May's withdrawal agreement or we remain.


I’d prefer to have our recriminations without obvious national poverty. It will be pretty clear in a few years if we are reverting to our pre-EU status of the sick man of Europe. Even the Wetherspoons crowd will notice if the Germans aren’t hogging the sunloungers any more at their favoured holiday spots, because they’ve moved en masse to the nicer hotels, leaving us competing for space with the Poles and the other poorer European nations.

I’d prefer we have our recriminations in the midst of an economic boom created by junking Brexit and releasing 3 years of pent up investment. That won’t happen in any other scenario.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208281

Postby ursaminortaur » March 17th, 2019, 8:49 pm

May is apparently telling the DUP that Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules forced on NI by the EU whilst the backstop was operating - basically ruling out any divergence from the EU in those areas. From the reports it seems like the DUP may be buying it even though such a promise couldn't bind any later parliament or probably even May's successor. Such a move probably wouldn't go down well with the ERG either.


https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-17/what-the-pm-offered-the-dup/

The prime minister’s frantic last attempt to persuade Northern Ireland’s DUP to back her third meaningful vote on Tuesday involves a promise that if the controversial backstop is ever triggered, Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules that could be forced by the EU on Northern Ireland.
.
.
.
May’s offer falls far short of the DUP’s demand that the EU must change the so-called Withdrawal Agreement, to remove the potential for business and food regulations between Great Britain and NI to diverge - and thereby, according to the DUP, create a new kind of legal border between NI and the mainland.
.
.
.
So logically the regulatory alignment offer should not pacify and win over the DUP.
But sources close to the DUP tell me that - to their surprise - it may have done.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208288

Postby anticrank » March 17th, 2019, 9:17 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:May is apparently telling the DUP that Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules forced on NI by the EU whilst the backstop was operating - basically ruling out any divergence from the EU in those areas. From the reports it seems like the DUP may be buying it even though such a promise couldn't bind any later parliament or probably even May's successor. Such a move probably wouldn't go down well with the ERG either.


https://www.itv.com/news/2019-03-17/what-the-pm-offered-the-dup/

The prime minister’s frantic last attempt to persuade Northern Ireland’s DUP to back her third meaningful vote on Tuesday involves a promise that if the controversial backstop is ever triggered, Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules that could be forced by the EU on Northern Ireland.
.
.
.
May’s offer falls far short of the DUP’s demand that the EU must change the so-called Withdrawal Agreement, to remove the potential for business and food regulations between Great Britain and NI to diverge - and thereby, according to the DUP, create a new kind of legal border between NI and the mainland.
.
.
.
So logically the regulatory alignment offer should not pacify and win over the DUP.
But sources close to the DUP tell me that - to their surprise - it may have done.


So, the offer is to maintain regulatory alignment with the Single Market, without being in the Single Market. This does not avoid a border in the Irish Sea. This is a simple intelligence test for the DUP. Even they can't be stupid enough to fail it.

The 'new kind of legal border', as they put it, would be a consequence not so much of regulatory divergence as of different oversight regimes. The EU single market combines mutual recognition (of *different* standards) and regulatory harmonisation, under one ultimate authority. It is the one ultimate authority that is crucial. Can't help feeling that if the DUP don't know this now, they will know it soon.

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Re: Brexit all over?

#208312

Postby BobbyD » March 17th, 2019, 10:44 pm

anticrank wrote:This is a simple intelligence test for the DUP. Even they can't be stupid enough to fail it.


Are you offering odds?


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