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The Brexit Party

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BobbyD
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The Brexit Party

#231285

Postby BobbyD » June 21st, 2019, 7:26 pm

SteMiS wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
SteMiS wrote:Tough one for the Brexit Party. If they put a candidate up, split the Conservative vote and the Liberal Democrats win, I wonder if many Conservatives thinking of voting Brexit Party in the nationals (or at least telling the pollsters they are planning to) will have second thoughts about the consequences.

Not putting up a candidate doesn't look great either...

That's why it is a tough one...

New parties need momentum (no pun intended). They had with the EU elections, lost it a bit with Peterborough but Brecon & Radnorshire could reduce it even further.


Indeed. It's difficult to imagine a much more favourable scenario for the BP than Peterborough. One has to wonder what else they would need in their favour to actually win a seat.
Moderator Message:
Non Brecon and Radnorshire discussion moved here. - Chris

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231291

Postby Lootman » June 21st, 2019, 7:41 pm

BobbyD wrote:It's difficult to imagine a much more favourable scenario for the BP than Peterborough. One has to wonder what else they would need in their favour to actually win a seat.

The Brexit Party won't win any seats assuming that we do actually leave the EU. It would decline just like UKIP has done since 2016. It's reason to exist will have passed.

If on the other hand MPs continue to find more ways of frustrating, delaying or stopping Brexit, then it could do very well indeed. It would be the mother of all protest votes.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231309

Postby BobbyD » June 21st, 2019, 9:11 pm

Lootman wrote:
BobbyD wrote:It's difficult to imagine a much more favourable scenario for the BP than Peterborough. One has to wonder what else they would need in their favour to actually win a seat.

The Brexit Party won't win any seats assuming that we do actually leave the EU. It would decline just like UKIP has done since 2016. It's reason to exist will have passed.

If on the other hand MPs continue to find more ways of frustrating, delaying or stopping Brexit, then it could do very well indeed. It would be the mother of all protest votes.


...and yet in a clear leave constituency, in an election in which voters deserted labour and conservatives in droves they failed to win... a defeat so dispiriting that The Nige was smuggled out the back door minutes before the result was announced.

What do The BP need in their favour above what they had in Pererborough to win a seat, and in how many constituencies are those conditions possible?

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231337

Postby dionaeamuscipula » June 22nd, 2019, 12:34 am

BobbyD wrote:
Lootman wrote:
BobbyD wrote:It's difficult to imagine a much more favourable scenario for the BP than Peterborough. One has to wonder what else they would need in their favour to actually win a seat.

The Brexit Party won't win any seats assuming that we do actually leave the EU. It would decline just like UKIP has done since 2016. It's reason to exist will have passed.

If on the other hand MPs continue to find more ways of frustrating, delaying or stopping Brexit, then it could do very well indeed. It would be the mother of all protest votes.


...and yet in a clear leave constituency, in an election in which voters deserted labour and conservatives in droves they failed to win... a defeat so dispiriting that The Nige was smuggled out the back door minutes before the result was announced.

What do The BP need in their favour above what they had in Pererborough to win a seat, and in how many constituencies are those conditions possible?

The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.

DM

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231338

Postby BobbyD » June 22nd, 2019, 12:47 am

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
Lootman wrote:The Brexit Party won't win any seats assuming that we do actually leave the EU. It would decline just like UKIP has done since 2016. It's reason to exist will have passed.

If on the other hand MPs continue to find more ways of frustrating, delaying or stopping Brexit, then it could do very well indeed. It would be the mother of all protest votes.


...and yet in a clear leave constituency, in an election in which voters deserted labour and conservatives in droves they failed to win... a defeat so dispiriting that The Nige was smuggled out the back door minutes before the result was announced.

What do The BP need in their favour above what they had in Pererborough to win a seat, and in how many constituencies are those conditions possible?

The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.

DM


The 'Brexit NOW Party'?

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231339

Postby Sorcery » June 22nd, 2019, 1:04 am

dionaeamuscipula wrote:The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.
DM


Glad you finally told us what you think about us, DM. That's brave.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any lower ...

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231349

Postby Sundance13 » June 22nd, 2019, 7:55 am

Sorcery wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.
DM


Glad you finally told us what you think about us, DM. That's brave.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any lower ...


Pretty sure it was tongue in cheek Sorcery, or more a dig at the people in the party itself than those who vote for it.

That said the Conservative members poll this week shook me up personally. The fact a majority of them would see the economy significantly damaged, the Union break up & Tory party destroyed, just to achieve Brexit, left me wondering what on earth has happened to this country.

I’m no great fan of the EU & voted leave (though I wouldn’t now), but some of the rhetoric & views about the EU, expressed by Brexiters is frankly unhinged. It seems all sense of proportionality has been lost, hence the crazy push to not only leave the legal & political institutions, but effectively cut formal economic ties also, for this is what no deal will equate to. It will also lead to a significant deterioration in political relations I expect.

What actually is Brexit about now? It long ago ceased to be about enhancing democracy, while the economic case is shot to pieces. What’s it all about now? Feels like it’s become merely a fight that must be won at all costs, even though I doubt many can remember why they actually started the fight or can give a good reason for continuing with it. Madness.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231353

Postby dionaeamuscipula » June 22nd, 2019, 8:13 am

Sorcery wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.
DM


Glad you finally told us what you think about us, DM. That's brave.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any lower ...

In retrospect it is a poor joke.

Of course no one yet knows what the Brexit Party's position on anything will be other than a desire to risk the ruin of the country's economy for ludicrous idealogical reasons. I think it is bizarre to associate with a party when you don't know what it stands for.

DM

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231361

Postby richfool » June 22nd, 2019, 8:56 am

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Sorcery wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:The names not too good. They need to push their countrywide reach by adding "National" to their name, in the middle.
DM


Glad you finally told us what you think about us, DM. That's brave.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any lower ...

In retrospect it is a poor joke.

Of course no one yet knows what the Brexit Party's position on anything will be other than a desire to risk the ruin of the country's economy for ludicrous idealogical reasons. I think it is bizarre to associate with a party when you don't know what it stands for.

DM

Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231373

Postby dionaeamuscipula » June 22nd, 2019, 10:35 am

richfool wrote:
Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.


I'm very happy for people to make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals. I am not happy for people to make me make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals.

BTW I was amused that one of the most Brexity of brexiteer PM candidates said that in the event of a no deal brexit we would need an emergency budget.

DM

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231376

Postby SteMiS » June 22nd, 2019, 10:56 am

richfool wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Sorcery wrote:
Glad you finally told us what you think about us, DM. That's brave.
Just when you thought it couldn't get any lower ...

In retrospect it is a poor joke.

Of course no one yet knows what the Brexit Party's position on anything will be other than a desire to risk the ruin of the country's economy for ludicrous idealogical reasons. I think it is bizarre to associate with a party when you don't know what it stands for.

DM

Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.

That would be rather more acceptable if it had been made clear before the referendum. Instead we had "easiest deal in history" and any warnings about the economic consequences labelled as "project fear". I wonder how many Leave voters would still have voted that way if they'd known the 'sacrifice' that they would be making and especially those who would be making the sacrifice (as opposed to those who clearly think it's someone else's to make)...

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231380

Postby Wizard » June 22nd, 2019, 11:29 am

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
richfool wrote:
Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.


I'm very happy for people to make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals. I am not happy for people to make me make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals.

BTW I was amused that one of the most Brexity of brexiteer PM candidates said that in the event of a no deal brexit we would need an emergency budget.

DM

My bold.

That comment suggests you are, notwithstanding Brexit, not a big fan of the democratic society we live in then. Surely inherent in that is the need to accept that sometimes you do not get what you want. Maybe some people do not want to pay taxes to allow pensions to be paid to people too old to work, I mean I am making a considerable sacrafice to allow them to eat; maybe some people do not want to sacrafice the money they could earn by selling drugs to allow others not to die from over doses. But making sacrafices for the benefit of others seems rather fundamental to our society.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231388

Postby Charlottesquare » June 22nd, 2019, 12:22 pm

Wizard wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:
richfool wrote:
Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.


I'm very happy for people to make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals. I am not happy for people to make me make considerable sacrifices to achieve their goals.

BTW I was amused that one of the most Brexity of brexiteer PM candidates said that in the event of a no deal brexit we would need an emergency budget.

DM

My bold.

That comment suggests you are, notwithstanding Brexit, not a big fan of the democratic society we live in then. Surely inherent in that is the need to accept that sometimes you do not get what you want. Maybe some people do not want to pay taxes to allow pensions to be paid to people too old to work, I mean I am making a considerable sacrafice to allow them to eat; maybe some people do not want to sacrafice the money they could earn by selling drugs to allow others not to die from over doses. But making sacrafices for the benefit of others seems rather fundamental to our society.


Well, I think there is a reasonable chance that at some point we see a limited version of your pension example with the state pension possibly becoming means tested. Fair degree of inter generational animosity at the moment and 15-20 years from now I would not be all that surprised to see some form of Brexit payback from the younger generations against the older generations.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231389

Postby richfool » June 22nd, 2019, 12:23 pm

SteMiS wrote:
richfool wrote:
dionaeamuscipula wrote:In retrospect it is a poor joke.

Of course no one yet knows what the Brexit Party's position on anything will be other than a desire to risk the ruin of the country's economy for ludicrous idealogical reasons. I think it is bizarre to associate with a party when you don't know what it stands for.

DM

Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.

That would be rather more acceptable if it had been made clear before the referendum. Instead we had "easiest deal in history" and any warnings about the economic consequences labelled as "project fear". I wonder how many Leave voters would still have voted that way if they'd known the 'sacrifice' that they would be making and especially those who would be making the sacrifice (as opposed to those who clearly think it's someone else's to make)...

(Re [my] bolded section).....But didn't Cameron's leaflet (which I just recently reread) make it clear and give enough warnings about the potential downsides, or if not, surely Carney and Osborne's "doomsday scenarios" that voting leave would result in, must have done?? Cameron's leaflet looked like a very "loaded" remain propaganda leaflet to me, and yet despite all that, the majority voted to leave. Maybe they saw the bigger, long term picture and weren't conned by Cameron's leaflet.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231398

Postby Sundance13 » June 22nd, 2019, 1:16 pm

richfool wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
richfool wrote:Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.

That would be rather more acceptable if it had been made clear before the referendum. Instead we had "easiest deal in history" and any warnings about the economic consequences labelled as "project fear". I wonder how many Leave voters would still have voted that way if they'd known the 'sacrifice' that they would be making and especially those who would be making the sacrifice (as opposed to those who clearly think it's someone else's to make)...

(Re [my] bolded section).....But didn't Cameron's leaflet (which I just recently reread) make it clear and give enough warnings about the potential downsides, or if not, surely Carney and Osborne's "doomsday scenarios" that voting leave would result in, must have done?? Cameron's leaflet looked like a very "loaded" remain propaganda leaflet to me, and yet despite all that, the majority voted to leave. Maybe they saw the bigger, long term picture and weren't conned by Cameron's leaflet.




Or maybe they just didn’t believe the warnings because others on the Leave side said Cameron & co were biased and peddling Project Fear.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231399

Postby SteMiS » June 22nd, 2019, 1:20 pm

richfool wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
richfool wrote:Perhaps some people believe in their goal so much that they are prepared to make considerable sacrifices to achieve it. Possibly even regardless of all the as yet unproved "ludicrous" hype and fearmongering about things like ruining their own country. Also bearing in mind that sometimes it might be necessary to take one step back in order to take two steps forward. Of course that's just an opinion.

That would be rather more acceptable if it had been made clear before the referendum. Instead we had "easiest deal in history" and any warnings about the economic consequences labelled as "project fear". I wonder how many Leave voters would still have voted that way if they'd known the 'sacrifice' that they would be making and especially those who would be making the sacrifice (as opposed to those who clearly think it's someone else's to make)...

(Re [my] bolded section).....But didn't Cameron's leaflet (which I just recently reread) make it clear and give enough warnings about the potential downsides, or if not, surely Carney and Osborne's "doomsday scenarios" that voting leave would result in, must have done?? Cameron's leaflet looked like a very "loaded" remain propaganda leaflet to me, and yet despite all that, the majority voted to leave. Maybe they saw the bigger, long term picture and weren't conned by Cameron's leaflet.

You need to make up your mind which it is. First you accept that there will need to be sacrifices and that it was all made clear in the governments pamphlet and BoE warnings and then you say that these were all propaganda and that people weren't conned by them !!

The bottom line is that at no point did Vote Leave tell people that there would be sacrifices to make. So we can add that to them not telling people what form of Brexit they were voting for either. In fact, quite a lot they didn't tell them, isn't there...

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231423

Postby Sorcery » June 22nd, 2019, 3:54 pm

SteMiS wrote:
richfool wrote:
SteMiS wrote:That would be rather more acceptable if it had been made clear before the referendum. Instead we had "easiest deal in history" and any warnings about the economic consequences labelled as "project fear". I wonder how many Leave voters would still have voted that way if they'd known the 'sacrifice' that they would be making and especially those who would be making the sacrifice (as opposed to those who clearly think it's someone else's to make)...

(Re [my] bolded section).....But didn't Cameron's leaflet (which I just recently reread) make it clear and give enough warnings about the potential downsides, or if not, surely Carney and Osborne's "doomsday scenarios" that voting leave would result in, must have done?? Cameron's leaflet looked like a very "loaded" remain propaganda leaflet to me, and yet despite all that, the majority voted to leave. Maybe they saw the bigger, long term picture and weren't conned by Cameron's leaflet.

You need to make up your mind which it is. First you accept that there will need to be sacrifices and that it was all made clear in the governments pamphlet and BoE warnings and then you say that these were all propaganda and that people weren't conned by them !!

The bottom line is that at no point did Vote Leave tell people that there would be sacrifices to make. So we can add that to them not telling people what form of Brexit they were voting for either. In fact, quite a lot they didn't tell them, isn't there...


Well Vote Leave didn't have to tell people the potential downsides, Remain were doing that for them and getting a lot of it wrong. All the predicted immediate ill effects of voting leave by remainers didn't happen. There is only one more test to go, finding out what happens when/if we leave with no trade agreement. I too thought an EU trade deal would be the easiest deal in history: we are already aligned after all. No one expected the EU would demand that Northern Ireland remain in the customs union. No one expected that would entail a border within the union of the UK. Their demands for an exit fee are highly dubious, can't see anyone other than May would have ever accepted it (in her desperation for any deal). Services have been excluded, the only area where we have a surplus. Despite earlier notions I had that the EU would want a trade deal (especially since in goods the EU are in surplus), the EU actually do want to make life as difficult for us as possible.

The answer to that is not to just roll over and say yes please, its to walk. Eventually they will want to talk. In the meantime their trade surplus with us will disappear on day 1 of tariffs being imposed. No problem, more emission compliant cars are available elsewhere, French agricultural products are over-rated and the same or better quality is available elsewhere. Double win, no more membership fees, no more trade deficit for us.

What's stopping us is remainer fear of the slightly unknown.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231425

Postby johnhemming » June 22nd, 2019, 4:21 pm

Sorcery wrote: I too thought an EU trade deal would be the easiest deal in history: we are already aligned after all. No one expected the EU would demand that Northern Ireland remain in the customs union. No one expected that would entail a border within the union of the UK.

We are aligned. The problem in terms of the backstop and any future trade deal is the extent to which we won't be aligned in the future. If we are going to continue to be aligned then there is no problem staying in a customs union.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231427

Postby BobbyD » June 22nd, 2019, 4:29 pm

Sorcery wrote:No one expected the EU would demand that Northern Ireland remain in the customs union. No one expected that would entail a border within the union of the UK.


This discussion was had prior to the referendum in the other place, so yes people did expect this outcome but other people dismissed it as Project Fear and ridiculous...

You were warned.

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Re: The Brexit Party

#231442

Postby Wizard » June 22nd, 2019, 5:39 pm

SteMiS wrote:...The bottom line is that at no point did Vote Leave tell people that there would be sacrifices to make. So we can add that to them not telling people what form of Brexit they were voting for either. In fact, quite a lot they didn't tell them, isn't there...

Indeed, it was a dreadful campaign. So just how mind bendingly, utterly, breath takingly unconvincing a campaign must Remain have run to lose to it?


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