This thread will hold my version of the board's challenge. Here are my rules:
1. All posts will be on this thread.
2. I will update whenever I trade and on this post's anniversary each year.
3. If I forget to post please poke me!
4. This is a real cash portfolio. I've cheated by using a fund that I started around the same time as this board was opened: my first trade was on 20 Apr 2010. Thus the first few trades are historical.
5. Total cash remittances to date are £4,181.66, a bit more than ukpoker's original £3,000. The cash consists of the personal savings of my daughter which as a precaution I moved out of bank deposits into gilts during the bank crises of 2010 and 2011.
6. The portfolio holdings are/will be relatively concentrated but consist of my strongest conviction stocks only.
7. I aim to produce a better return than 3% net net net by timing my trades based on my analysis which at present consists broadly of: a. assessing relative asset class valuation via risk free yields and risk spreads, b. watching broad macro and demographic trends, c. Technical Analysis and then d. identifying appropriate buying and selling opportunities.
8. I aim to trade infrequently, looking for multi-bag returns from risky assets, and improving yield outlook while holding safer assets. Therefore apologies if nothing much of interest happens on this thread!
Since 2010 the fund has grown to £17,127.79. Below is a list of the cash flows for IRR calculation, then the current asset allocation, finally a list of all trades to date.
My conviction trade of the moment is to accumulate bank stocks, while remaining highly defensive. Thus the current allocation is mostly cash with some shares in RBS and Barclays, both of which are trading well below NAV almost ten years after their crisis.
To reach the target million, I have to double the portfolio value six times. At the current IRR that will take around 18 years to achieve. That's roughly how long I have been posting on TMF so who knows, I may get there in the end! But somehow I doubt it. A more interesting measure will be number of postions held. So far, the portfolio has held four positions: roughly 100% gilts, then 100% B&B bonds, then 100% cash, and now a growing exposure to bank shares.
Date Transaction Symbol Unit Cost Quantity Fees Value
10 Jun 2010 Deposit CASH £2,973.66
10 Jun 2011 Deposit CASH £1,208.00
10 Jun 2012 £0.00
10 Jun 2013 £0.00
10 Jun 2014 £0.00
10 Jun 2015 £0.00
10 Jun 2016 Value -£17,127.29
20 Apr 2010 BUY TR27 0.9657 2017.44 £51.76 -£2,000.00
5 Jan 2011 BUY TR27 1.0102 2213.36 £31.46 -£2,267.40
10 Sep 2012 SELL TR27 1.256 4230.8 £1.85 £5,312.03
10 Sep 2012 BUY BBN 0.505 10000 £50.00 -£5,100.00
25 Sep 2014 SELL BBN 1.65 10000 £50.00 £16,550.00
8 Apr 2016 BUY BARC 1.491096 1000 £19.41 -£1,510.51
6 May 2016 BUY RBS 2.13 800 £20.47 -£1,724.47