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The Trading Log

Honest reporting on shorter-term trading activity and ideas
compscidude
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Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

The Trading Log

#13839

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2016, 10:24 pm

Hi everyone,

Over the years on TMF I was occasionally accused of not holding particular positions/trades over the periods I claimed, despite the fact that a careful perusal of my posting history would in every case show the trade.

Something I wished for at TMF was a place to record trades so that it would be easy to look up what someone had said they were doing in the past.

I would like there to be a new board called 'The Trading Log' in which posts are simply statements of your positions, without discussion, so that people can put their name behind a particular play. Then others will be able to inspect past posts and decide for themselves if the person is a competent investor and if their reasoning was sound.

For now, I've created this thread and people can post here. It will be messy as hell, since we don't have one thread per user, but that's life.

Proposed rules:

1 - Post your name, and the position you've taken, and optionally a very short note about why - a few sentences at most.
2 - To keep the thread manageable, no discussion on *this* thread about people's trades, or people themselves. Post it somewhere else.
3 - Don't edit your posts. If you need to correct something, post a second post to correct it.
4 - Any post which is edited after being posted should not be considered part of the record (except where it is awful :) )
5 - Trades should be considered as having taken place at time the post was made. i.e. You can't claim 'I got the best price of the day'.
6 - Preferably, report the % of your portfolio that was in the trade, not the absolute amount.

comp

tjh290633
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Re: The Trading Log

#13841

Postby tjh290633 » December 9th, 2016, 10:35 pm

Good idea, but I suspect that rule 5 may be a bit of a problem.
5 - Trades should be considered as having taken place at time the post was made. i.e. You can't claim 'I got the best price of the day'.

If you are doing several deals, for example trimming one share and topping up 2 or 3 more, it may not be practicable to report each deal here while dealing. Perhaps better to give the date and time of each deal, which can then be verified against the price chart for the day.

TJH

compscidude
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Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#13844

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2016, 10:40 pm

compscidude

SELL BRK-B.NYSE (Berkshire Hathaway) 20% of portfolio
SELL MYI.L (Murray International IT) 10% of portfolio

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).

I am now 89% in cash, with a smattering of UK and Canadian ITs left.

I moved to cash because the US market indices have scored repeated quadruple simultaneous record highs, as they did before the dotcom crash, which seems like a sign of toppiness. Also because I believe Trump will be a disaster, so I want to reduce my US exposure and market exposure. Also because I believe the US dollar is very overvalued. (http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/col ... 26577.html)

I have no idea what BRK and the US indices will do in the short term, but starting from here and measured in pound sterling terms, I think they are likely to go down in the longer term. The 50% return in pound sterling that BRK has offered holders over the last 13-14 months is spectacular and I don't want to lose it.

I held MYI since the Brexit referendum vote. You can see that this is not really an excellent time to be buying MYI, even over a 1 year time frame. In the last year the price has been as low as 750p, it is now 1158p. (https://www.google.co.uk/finance/getcha ... m_U7SqgvAH)

compscidude
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Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#13847

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2016, 10:46 pm

If you are doing several deals, for example trimming one share and topping up 2 or 3 more, it may not be practicable to report each deal here while dealing. Perhaps better to give the date and time of each deal, which can then be verified against the price chart for the day.


Hi tjh.

Yes I thought about this while proposing the rules. I think it is better that people post 'when they can' and accept the price in that market at that time of their post, even if it is not precisely accurate with their actual trade. The reason is that at least it is always externally verifiable and there is no question of the poster's honesty or accuracy.

The alternative is to allow people to claim they traded at the best price each day. This seems more likely to start arguments about honesty or accuracy, especially if someone is fortunate enough to clutch the best price of the day several times by good fortune.

Can we try it the way I suggested for now and review it in a few weeks if the inaccuracies are too great?

If anyone's trading record is ruined by trades being reported a few hours late occasionally, there's a high probability their trading success is simply random noise anyway.

Perhaps we can also make thread-wide exceptions to this rule during times of high market volatility.

comp

AJC5001
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Re: The Trading Log

#13848

Postby AJC5001 » December 9th, 2016, 10:47 pm

compscidude wrote:compscidude

SELL BRK-B.NYSE (Berkshire Hathaway) 20% of portfolio
SELL MYI.L (Murray International IT) 10% of portfolio

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).


Why not include the actual trade price as well? Saves having to mess about trying to find it in the future when referring back to this post.

Adrian

compscidude
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Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#13849

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2016, 10:49 pm

Updating previous post with numbers included:

SELL BRK-B.NYSE at 164.86 USD, 131.15GBP (Berkshire Hathaway). 20% of portfolio. Forex rate 1.257 USD per GBP.
SELL MYI.L at 1158p (Murray International IT). 10% of portfolio.

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).

compscidude
Posts: 20
Joined: November 6th, 2016, 10:07 pm

Re: The Trading Log

#13851

Postby compscidude » December 9th, 2016, 10:49 pm

Why not include the actual trade price as well? Saves having to mess about trying to find it in the future when referring back to this post.


Completely agree, Adrian. Have posted a correction post with the numbers.

comp

bulltraderpt
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Re: The Trading Log

#14741

Postby bulltraderpt » December 13th, 2016, 3:10 pm

You might want to check out PAYS

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#273043

Postby StepOne » December 23rd, 2019, 12:10 pm

compscidude wrote:Updating previous post with numbers included:

SELL BRK-B.NYSE at 164.86 USD, 131.15GBP (Berkshire Hathaway). 20% of portfolio. Forex rate 1.257 USD per GBP.
SELL MYI.L at 1158p (Murray International IT). 10% of portfolio.

(Price at close, Friday 9th 2016).


BRK-B.NYSE now at 226 USD, up 37%
MYI.L now at 1274p, up 10% (plus dividends)

The lesson I'm taking from this is don't try to time the markets.

csd2020
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Re: The Trading Log

#292542

Postby csd2020 » March 20th, 2020, 2:38 am

"BRK-B.NYSE now at 226 USD, up 37%
MYI.L now at 1274p, up 10% (plus dividends)
The lesson I'm taking from this is don't try to time the markets."

:lol:

1) BRK at 166 USD today, 20th March 2020. No dividends over period.

So far sitting at a small profit ($ bank interest for 3 years @ 6% total) for USD investors who sold at my sell price and bought back today. Currently still a small loss for GBP investors thanks to very recent and dramatic GBP devaluation. The dollar/pound rate is behaving very strangely just now - it has gone from 1.31 to 1.15 in barely over a week. Were it not for that shock currency move, this trade would be nicely in profit in GBP terms as well as in USD terms. Let's call this one 'still to be resolved', and see how things play out in the coming months, rather than jump to any further premature conclusions.

2) MYI.L at 763p today, 20th March 2020. Well, that's quite far below my sell price of 1158p. I wonder why you didn't rush to correct your own post yourself?

Anyone who did what I did, has turned a profit of 34% on their capital in 3 years, less some dividends (153p=13%), plus some bank interest (1% a year for 3 years=3%). So a net gain of 24% for sitting in lovely boring risk-free cash for a while watching a bubbly market bubbling away and seeing people playing with fire.

The lesson I'm taking from this is that you should probably think twice before publicly criticising other people / drawing life lessons from their mistakes, in case their mistakes turn out to be sound judgement, unlike your 'lesson'.

comp

GoSeigen
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Re: The Trading Log

#292570

Postby GoSeigen » March 20th, 2020, 7:56 am

csd2020 wrote:Anyone who did what I did, has turned a profit of 34% on their capital in 3 years, less some dividends (153p=13%), plus some bank interest (1% a year for 3 years=3%). So a net gain of 24% for sitting in lovely boring risk-free cash for a while watching a bubbly market bubbling away and seeing people playing with fire.

comp


comp: I'm very disappointed -- you didn't ring the bell!! :-)

Well done for being a master investor though.

GS
[Portfolio down some 27%]

PinkDalek
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Re: The Trading Log

#292804

Postby PinkDalek » March 21st, 2020, 12:15 am

GoSeigen wrote:[Portfolio down some 27%]


Since December 2016? :D

Itsallaguess
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Re: The Trading Log

#292814

Postby Itsallaguess » March 21st, 2020, 5:44 am

GoSeigen wrote:
Well done for being a master investor though.


I can see the headline now - 'Man who sold everything 3 years ago due to 'imminent market crash' pops back up in 2020 and says "You didn't listen!!"'

Cheers,

Itsallaguess (who did the right thing at the time and simply ignored 'the bell'...)

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#300096

Postby StepOne » April 12th, 2020, 1:00 pm

csd2020 wrote:The lesson I'm taking from this is that you should probably think twice before publicly criticising other people / drawing life lessons from their mistakes, in case their mistakes turn out to be sound judgement, unlike your 'lesson'.

comp


Comp,

I did not criticise you. I criticised your 'time the market' strategy and I stand by that.

You are claiming 'sound judgement' based on being 6% up in three years. I think you might have missed the effects of dividend reinvestment. My SIPP, which is entirely in cheap global trackers is up 43% since May 2016, of which I think about 15% is contributions, so as far as I am concerned remaining in the market continues to be the winning strategy.

Are you getting back in now?

Thanks,
StepOne

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#300137

Postby StepOne » April 12th, 2020, 3:03 pm

csd2020 wrote:Anyone who did what I did, has turned a profit of 34% on their capital in 3 years, less some dividends (153p=13%), plus some bank interest (1% a year for 3 years=3%). So a net gain of 24% for sitting in lovely boring risk-free cash for a while watching a bubbly market bubbling away and seeing people playing with fire.
comp


Sorry just reading this again. Are you claiming that someone who sold three years ago and bought back today has made 24%?

That is a pretty extreme example of massaging the figures to suit your own agenda. The bare fact is that you made zero on that money in those 3 years. Your fictional interest figure doesn't even cover inflation. To claim a profit is frankly laughable.

StepOne

GoSeigen
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Re: The Trading Log

#300486

Postby GoSeigen » April 13th, 2020, 8:44 pm

StepOne wrote:
csd2020 wrote:Anyone who did what I did, has turned a profit of 34% on their capital in 3 years, less some dividends (153p=13%), plus some bank interest (1% a year for 3 years=3%). So a net gain of 24% for sitting in lovely boring risk-free cash for a while watching a bubbly market bubbling away and seeing people playing with fire.
comp


Sorry just reading this again. Are you claiming that someone who sold three years ago and bought back today has made 24%?

That is a pretty extreme example of massaging the figures to suit your own agenda. The bare fact is that you made zero on that money in those 3 years. Your fictional interest figure doesn't even cover inflation. To claim a profit is frankly laughable.


Hmm, person A bought 100 shares 3 years ago; still has the shares and the purchase less dividends cost him £100.
Person B waited and bought the same 100 shares yesterday. They cost him £76 to buy. He has £24 more to spend than A.

Looks to me like B's capital has worked much harder for him than A's.


You understand he was making his claim in comparison to people who in his words were "playing with fire" [invested in a toppy market]?


GS

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#300519

Postby StepOne » April 13th, 2020, 11:13 pm

GoSeigen wrote:You understand he was making his claim in comparison to people who in his words were "playing with fire" [invested in a toppy market]?

GS


Yes I understood that. In your example person B still only has 100 pounds today. My own experience is that I have 128 pounds after three years 'playing with fire'. And it's not clear that csd has bought back in yet.

Itsallaguess
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Re: The Trading Log

#300534

Postby Itsallaguess » April 14th, 2020, 5:48 am

StepOne wrote:
And it's not clear that csd has bought back in yet.


This guy's been ringing bells since the Motley Fool days...

The biggest shame is to think that some people might have followed him completely out of the market all those years ago...

I'm sure glad that I didn't - I can't begin to think about what position I'd be in now if I had done...

What is it that they say about stopped clocks?

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

GoSeigen
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Re: The Trading Log

#300555

Postby GoSeigen » April 14th, 2020, 8:35 am

StepOne wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:You understand he was making his claim in comparison to people who in his words were "playing with fire" [invested in a toppy market]?

GS


Yes I understood that. In your example person B still only has 100 pounds today. My own experience is that I have 128 pounds after three years 'playing with fire'. And it's not clear that csd has bought back in yet.


Well of course we don't know what shares he was referring to -- obviously not the ones you held -- or whether he's reopened the entire position yet, but the presumption of good faith demands that we take him at his word surely...

He was certainly open about what he was doing and drew a fair bit of derision in the process.

GS

StepOne
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Re: The Trading Log

#300562

Postby StepOne » April 14th, 2020, 8:55 am

GoSeigen wrote:Well of course we don't know what shares he was referring to -- obviously not the ones you held -- or whether he's reopened the entire position yet, but the presumption of good faith demands that we take him at his word surely...

He was certainly open about what he was doing and drew a fair bit of derision in the process.

GS


Hi GS ,

We do know the shares he was referring to .... the trades are at the start of this thread. They are not the shares I own, I was using my SIPP as a proxy for the market.

And I am taking him at his word. Just arguing with the maths and trying to show from my own experience that you are better off staying invested rather than trying to time the market.

StepOne


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