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Musk endeavours

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woolly
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Re: Musk endeavours

#100423

Postby woolly » December 1st, 2017, 10:25 am

Exciting times - two recent news items that make me realise that battery tech is getting better fast and that widespread clean, non-polluting transport may indeed happen in our lifetimes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12 ... alia-elon/

Look at the tiny footprint and absolute simplicity of the plant - maintenance would be almost a non-issue. And I'd imagine such arrays could come online faster than Dinorwic or the fastest gas turbine to meet peak demand.

The other article deals with battery-powered planes - I would never have imagined this was possible but there you go:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... plane-2020

If fossil fuels are to be replaced with renewables the total global storage needs would have to be about on a par with global energy consumption - is this feasible or would the total battery volume be something like the size of the moon? Battery tech is obviously key, but to connect all these batteries and provide massive current where it's needed (heavy transport recharging stations) there will still be a need for a vastly upgraded national/international grid whose maintenance / installation cost would dwarf the cost of electrifying railways - anyone know any good companies in this arena worth looking at?

Enjoying the oil drum - thanks...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#100442

Postby dspp » December 1st, 2017, 11:13 am

woolly wrote:If fossil fuels are to be replaced with renewables the total global storage needs would have to be about on a par with global energy consumption - is this feasible or would the total battery volume be something like the size of the moon? Battery tech is obviously key, but to connect all these batteries and provide massive current where it's needed (heavy transport recharging stations) there will still be a need for a vastly upgraded national/international grid whose maintenance / installation cost would dwarf the cost of electrifying railways - anyone know any good companies in this arena worth looking at?

Enjoying the oil drum - thanks...


re TOD: No worries, my pleasure.

re storage: I don't know where you get my numbers from. My modelling, and my back-of-envelope calculations both come out into the same area, which is that you need about one week of storage for a (typical) western economy (using UK as proxy). In turn that yields the following:

To understand the scale of the construction challenge if there are assumed [from the calculations I allude to above] to be 100 storage sites on the HV grid [of the UK] with each site containing 10GWh of storage then each site will need approximately ten buildings of five-storeys each with a footprint of 10,000m2 (i.e. 1ha), with each building containing 200,000 storage units of approximately 5kWh each at a density of approximately 20kWh per m2 of floor space. Assuming a 50% allowance of unbuilt land surrounding each building for safety reasons then storage sites will be approximately 20 ha per site. To put that into perspective a typical HV substation such as feeds the Bournemouth & Poole conurbation of is approximately 4 ha in area and supports approximately 400,000 people. [Basically what I am describing is about 100 storage sites at each of the main grid nodes, and most of those are located adjacent to existing power stations which have sufficient land in the vicinity. This in turn works out to be about the output from one Tesla/Panasonic gigafactory dedicated to the UK over a 14-year build-out period. Through to about 80% renewables penetration the HV grid build-out is fairly modest if done this way, and directionally going this route is about cost-neutral to the 80% point was the other interesting conclusion].

Regarding companies/funds/etc that make good investment propositions to play this area without taking on excessive risk, and which are accessible to a PI, I have really struggled. And I am in the energy sector so I am as well placed as anyone. The main issue I struggle with is how to manage the risks.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#100467

Postby FredBloggs » December 1st, 2017, 11:48 am

Risks? Simples to sort that one out! Remember in the gold rush, the picks and shovels guys made the most money? Buy into cable manufacturers and copper producers. There can be no growth in electrical energy generation and distribution without those guys. The power can be generated any way you like eco friendly or not. Fact is, electricity distribution needs cables and copper.***

*** Edited to add, cross country cables in grid distribution are aluminium, I understand.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#100560

Postby odysseus2000 » December 1st, 2017, 3:10 pm

FRed Bloggs

Risks? Simples to sort that one out! Remember in the gold rush, the picks and shovels guys made the most money? Buy into cable manufacturers and copper producers. There can be no growth in electrical energy generation and distribution without those guys. The power can be generated any way you like eco friendly or not. Fact is, electricity distribution needs cables and copper.***

*** Edited to add, cross country cables in grid distribution are aluminium, I understand.


Yes, this is a well known & oft quoted investment tactic.

But a few years back I tried this approach with Apple. Sure the odd supplier had done okay, but most of them are quasi commodity suppliers who operate at low margins. From my research the best way to prosper with Apple was to buy Apple equity.

The trouble now though is that we don't know who will be analogous to Apple or if there will be one dominant player & if that dominant player is Tesla it has already run a long long way & trades on a high multiple. However, if the model 3 sells in volume it is very cheap, if the model 3 fails it is very expensive & one can add similar comments for the semi, solar roofing, battery storage etc.

For an aggressive investor/ trader the way to manage risk is by price action & even then one risks selling out & not re-entering if the equity runs hard.

In revolutions like this it is hard to avoid risk. If your in you are at the mercy of some bad unexpected event, if you are out you are at the mercy of some very favourable events causing you to miss big moves.

It will be a doddle in hindsight, it always is, but from where we are now it is hard.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#100787

Postby ReformedCharacter » December 2nd, 2017, 12:49 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:I've been waiting with anticipation to see the first Falcon Heavy launch. That has 27 Falcon engines and reminds me of the joke by Werner von Braun who described an early first stage multi-engine rocket test as 'Cluster's Last Stand'.

RC


'SpaceX founder and chief executive Elon Musk tweeted Friday that his red Tesla Roadster will head for deep space on the maiden flight of the company’s Falcon Heavy rocket as soon as next month, and do it to the tune of David Bowie’s “Space Oddity.”'

https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/12/02/s ... ft-rocket/

I hope 'Great Balls of Fire' doesn't prove to be a more appropriate tune...

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#104376

Postby odysseus2000 » December 15th, 2017, 1:55 pm

Canadians offer huge incentive to buy electric trucks. HAT tip to Smartertrader on twitter for link:

https://electrek.co/2017/12/14/tesla-se ... ssion=true

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#105187

Postby odysseus2000 » December 19th, 2017, 7:42 pm

Tesla big battery working in Australia:

http://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-ba ... ips-70003/

Hat tip to Musk for link.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#112916

Postby ReformedCharacter » January 23rd, 2018, 11:37 pm

Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus


https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... bonus-40bn

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#112924

Postby FredBloggs » January 24th, 2018, 1:37 am

ReformedCharacter wrote:
Elon Musk lines up $55bn payday – the world's biggest bonus


https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... bonus-40bn

RC

Wow, that really is worth a read if you have any interest in power networks and renewables. Could be a game changing event.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#112940

Postby odysseus2000 » January 24th, 2018, 8:38 am

It's kind of interesting how Seeking Alpha have been bombarding my email with Tesla articles.

From a guess, nothing more scientific, I woukd estimate about 2/3 are negative.

The negative articles include: Truck will not be built, massive equity dillution coming as Tesla fight against bankruptcy, model 3 not being made & those that are are not selling...

There are the odd positives ones too, but if these bear guys have goaded Tesla into this new pay regime then good on them.

Tesla shares were already looking like they would run & this deal makes an equity dilution from a fund rise unlikely imho & also suggests to me that model 3 production bottle necks are being over come.

This is still a risky equity for many, but although there are endless folk preaching the valuation is way too high & the shares are a clear short, I would not think of any short position other than very short term things if you are skilled at that game, going long term short here looks like running through a mine field. There were folk who shorted Amazon in the 1999 market, if they held through the crash, they might not have been crucified, but margin calls ruined many Amazon shorts long before the price came off. A big reversal could happen for Tesla, but I much prefer the long side here, although I would caution that anyone who has little experience of equities could get hurt messing with Tesla. Many rode Amazon during the late last century bull market then gave a lot back, but those who sold at the top did super well. Reviewing past history can be helpful, but you have to be able to deal with current market chatter that can easily cause anyone to do daft things. Sometimes it best just to turn off all the media & watch the price.

Emotionally I would like Elon to make his money if for no other reason than to show how most of the experts talking & writing about the business have got it wrong. But from an investor trader perspective it's not Elon's success or failure that matters, its mine & experience has taught me to be endlessly cautious.

Regards,

woolly
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Re: Musk endeavours

#112972

Postby woolly » January 24th, 2018, 10:19 am

Hi Ody - A big thank-you for spurring me to investigate Musk and Tesla further... Having spent several days in the diversionary world of Wait But Why https://waitbutwhy.com - the procrastination piece started the ball rolling :D - I have totally reversed my thinking on Musk and his endeavours. The film of the Space X booster landing on a tiny, rocking platform floating in a rough sea was mind-blowing (about halfway down on this page: https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/09/spacexs-big-fking-rocket-the-full-story.html). The man clearly has no upper limits on his ambition and gets things done. He out-Jobses Jobs - I absolutely hope he succeeds and would love to get in on his story...

But therein lies the rub - shares in TSLA are pretty highly priced by any normal metrics. You've been watching the stock for a long time - are pull-backs (due to the aforementioned Wall St manipulations) a regular feature where one can expect to increase one's holding at bargain prices?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#113112

Postby ReformedCharacter » January 24th, 2018, 7:01 pm

ReformedCharacter wrote:
'SpaceX founder and chief executive Elon Musk tweeted Friday that his red Tesla Roadster will head for deep space on the maiden flight of the company’s Falcon Heavy rocket as soon as next month, and do it to the tune of David Bowie’s “Space Oddity.”'

RC


The Falcon Heavy was test fired for the first time this morning and apparently went well:

https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/01/09/f ... parations/

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#113154

Postby Snorvey » January 24th, 2018, 10:52 pm

The Falcon Heavy test fires it's engines

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science- ... t-42692673

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Re: Musk endeavours

#113227

Postby odysseus2000 » January 25th, 2018, 10:21 am

Hi Woolly,

Sorry for the delay in answering your question, just very busy at the moment.

If you look at the monthly chart of Tesla you see:


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUYOIMJX4AAhQj0.jpg

In a very broad look, one sees that there have been two long periods when Tesla was in a range that broke upwards. The share price now looks to be in another range, if so then the best lowest risk entry will be at the bottom of the current range. But if the share price goes there, the media will be full of very negative stories & it will be hard to buy if you pay any attention to these gloom merchants. Of course one never knows & perhaps they will be right some time, but based on past experience, the bottom of the current range is potentially the best low risk entry point if the share gets there.

I don't have any certainty about now. If e.g. the model 3 starts to ship & consumer reports are still positive the share might never test the bottom range again & fly upwards.

As I don't know the longer term I tend to focus on the shorter term, but that requires a skill set in this kind of trading which is probably best learned from some one such as Dan Zanger, or Scott Redler or Rob Smith of T3 live. I have in the past tried several other "teachers" all of which I found to be much worse than not listening too.

Anyone who starts talking about valuation should stay a very long way away from growth stocks like Tesla. These stocks do not trade on current valuation.

Sorry brief, but I have a lot of stuff I need to do.

Regards,

woolly
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Re: Musk endeavours

#114515

Postby woolly » January 31st, 2018, 12:15 pm

Thanks Ody - no problem ignoring gloom-merchants! Thanks to their agenda there may well be a buying opportunity sooner or later...

I'm trying not to fit TSLA into an AAPL-shaped mould, as financially the two companies are very different.

Back in the '00s there was a lot of negativity about AAPL, some from people who just didn't 'get' Apple, others from deliberate stock manipulators, but fundamentally the company was on a sound footing. Jobs had learned some hard lessons by this stage and wanted Apple to have the freedom to execute without the constant threat of people who didn't properly understand where Apple was going pulling the rug from under them. iPod's success gave them that security.

That's what Tesla needs, but it doesn't appear to be in that position and I'm not sure Musk has been through the (necessary?) baptism of fire yet. Maybe he's smart and disciplined enough to learn from others' mistakes... Tesla's debt and hunger for cash is worrying and I hope creditors are strong enough to stay the course.

Meanwhile in less than a week we may see the first orbiting car - I wonder if the tyres will pop? I'm guessing that the timing in relation to the upcoming TSLA results is not simply chance, and maybe the intention is that the shares will do the same?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#114518

Postby Meatyfool » January 31st, 2018, 12:31 pm

woolly wrote:Meanwhile in less than a week we may see the first orbiting car - I wonder if the tyres will pop? I'm guessing that the timing in relation to the upcoming TSLA results is not simply chance, and maybe the intention is that the shares will do the same?


Hmm, possibly not. He has gone on record as saying he considers the Falcon Heavy exploding on launch and NOT destroying the pad would be a "win".

Then again, maybe he is fully convinced it will launch, and downplaying it just for the reasons you state.

Mucho cohones if so.

Wed Feb 6, 1830-2130 is the GMT launch window - should be streaming live. May be delayed, the Falcon 9 that was supposed to go up yesterday, may go up today.

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#114698

Postby odysseus2000 » January 31st, 2018, 9:40 pm

Woolly
Back in the '00s there was a lot of negativity about AAPL, some from people who just didn't 'get' Apple, others from deliberate stock manipulators, but fundamentally the company was on a sound footing. Jobs had learned some hard lessons by this stage and wanted Apple to have the freedom to execute without the constant threat of people who didn't properly understand where Apple was going pulling the rug from under them. iPod's success gave them that security.

That's what Tesla needs, but it doesn't appear to be in that position and I'm not sure Musk has been through the (necessary?) baptism of fire yet. Maybe he's smart and disciplined enough to learn from others' mistakes... Tesla's debt and hunger for cash is worrying and I hope creditors are strong enough to stay the course.


Yes, and no!

Apple had a very loyal customer base that refused to buy Msft even when Apple stuff wasn't great, this from long before the iPod. This is not unlike Tesla who still have a lot of deposit money from folk who put down a reservation for a model 3. Apple also sank when they fired Jobs and recovered when he came back via the take over of next computer, similarly Tesla have Musk who has many Jobs like qualities. Jobs needed security for himself as much as Apple needed income and all of that came together with iPod and then iPhone, very like it did decades earlier with the original Mac. That first fortune was squandered by Scully after he fired Jobs, a decision he later acknowledged was wrong. There is currently no firing threat to Musk.

Secondly the iPod and iPhone both met a need very much as the model 3 may do. Whereas the Apple products sat well with consumers, the electric car is being heavily if not directly promoted by governments. Today I was visiting a friend and saw TV news, something I rarely do as I gave up my TV. There was a huge section on dioxins in Manchester and how the politicians were thinking of targeting business who provide parking for staff as they argued it was these cars that were making the dioxin. The politicians probably just want this for dogma or revenue reasons, but by launching these attacks on diesel and petrol cars they are essentially marketing electric cars which are much cleaner. So we have the model 3 launching into a market that has been heavily prepared by the politicians. If the car is any good and can be made in volume Tesla can make some serious money with it. Meanwhile the same concerns over pollution also market solar and storage for Tesla. Essentially the tax payer is doing all the advertising for Tesla.

There are of course concerns over Musk's business qualities, but here there have been some significant changes. Gone are the days he used to say Tesla stock is over priced, now he just says it is set by the market. If you read the biography of Musk you learn of the hard times he had with his Father, suggesting that like orphan Jobs, he has been hardened in many ways.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#115805

Postby ReformedCharacter » February 5th, 2018, 10:55 am

The Tesla Roadster has been loaded and (presumably) Bowie's 'Space Odyssey' cued up on the hi-fi in preparation for a launch attempt tomorrow (6th Feb) of the Falcon Heavy. Given that many scheduled launches get postponed for various reasons and that this is the first launch of the vehicle there's probably about a 50/50 probability that it will actually get off the ground tomorrow.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2018/02/04/s ... vy-flight/

I expect Spaceflightnow to livestream the launch when it occurs. Godspeed Tesla Roadster!

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#115809

Postby woolly » February 5th, 2018, 11:06 am

Tesla have Musk who has many Jobs like qualities
- in terms of presentation skills, though, Jobs definitely aces Musk!

But in terms of thinking of the big picture, and not simply aiming to make money at all costs, Musk (like Jobs) is one of the new generation of business leaders that are redefining capitalism in the 21st century, for the better in my opinion.

With the popularity of campaigns to ban plastics opening up a new front in the war against oil it is clear now that a secular change is well underway - renewables, biodegradables, and other clean tech, despite desperate and ferocious naysaying from incumbents, are gaining ground day after day. In a generation's time, we will look back and wonder what we were trying to achieve by opposing this change - why would anyone not want to cover every square metre of roof with solar capacity? Why would anyone want to drive around in machines that through an insanely complex mechanism actually burn hydrocarbons inside them, with all the inefficiencies, noise and pollution that generates? It will seem as illogical and immoral to the next generation as opposing the abolition of slavery does to us.

Re Tesla and batteries, I would be less nervous if Gigafactories were popping up all over the globe - the reliance on a single plant for this vital component is worrying, especially given its known propensity for combustibility! That said, it's not rocket science (unlike SpaceX!), and Tesla's patents are open source - any news of, say, China working to fill the demand gap (BYD, for example)?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#115818

Postby Meatyfool » February 5th, 2018, 11:44 am

woolly wrote:Re Tesla and batteries, I would be less nervous if Gigafactories were popping up all over the globe - the reliance on a single plant for this vital component is worrying, especially given its known propensity for combustibility!)


I presume the reference to a single plant is in reference to Tesla, but that is not the only one, loads of other companies have their own ...

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles ... gs.pEiE=z0

Meatyfool..


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