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Musk endeavours

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Re: Musk endeavours

#116725

Postby ReformedCharacter » February 8th, 2018, 7:28 pm

Here's an interesting video on the Youtube about the BFR (Big F* Rocket) which is the next Spacex spacecraft and likely the vehicle which will actually have the capacity to take a large number of people\equipment to Mars:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg0BB2bCDPo&t=701s

There's an interesting graphic towards the end of the presentation showing how it will be cheaper, presumably on a pound to orbit basis, than all the other current heavy lifters.

Meantime there's Jeff Bezos with Blue Origin 'I just sell off another billion's worth of Amazon stock each year to fund it' which appears to be at least as game-changing as Spacex. Blue Origin are developing large scale methane\oxygen powered engines which are IMO at least as innovative as anything Spacex has developed, but less obviously exciting. A Space Race v.2 has begun but amongst US companies instead of US v USSR. Exciting times for space buffs!

RC

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Re: Musk endeavours

#116966

Postby odysseus2000 » February 9th, 2018, 5:39 pm

Tsla stock now closing on the bottom of the last trading range, from February of 2017.

If the stock is going to be any good it ought to stay within this trading range.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#117064

Postby odysseus2000 » February 10th, 2018, 10:50 am

VERY interestingly Musk interview, only about 10 minutes, but a lot about him in it:

https://youtu.be/CQbKctnnA-Y

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Re: Musk endeavours

#117740

Postby odysseus2000 » February 12th, 2018, 9:31 pm

Clarkson tests the model X:

https://youtu.be/8Cdyuq5IC3k


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Re: Musk endeavours

#117744

Postby Snorvey » February 12th, 2018, 9:50 pm

'summon mode' fantastic. Although with a car that accelerates that fast it probably has a 'summons mode' too.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#117765

Postby odysseus2000 » February 13th, 2018, 12:14 am

Circa 10 minute watch of some of the economic numbers driving the Musk endeavours:

https://youtu.be/h97fXhDN5qE

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120645

Postby odysseus2000 » February 27th, 2018, 1:06 am

Reinventing the internet in space for much higher speeds all over the Earth:

https://youtu.be/EyPHfj-UD4k

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120702

Postby woolly » February 27th, 2018, 10:32 am

Yet another industry Musk is disrupting... I am beginning to get nervous that some thug somewhere will get fed up with their agenda being trashed by Musk and might decide to do something about it that, er, doesn't fall within the purview of acceptable conduct. I hope he has good private security - he's too important to lose.

It would be great to see him do a NeXT - get swallowed up by Apple and emerge with all the resources of that titan at his disposal to lead it to even better things.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120711

Postby odysseus2000 » February 27th, 2018, 11:26 am

California allows cars with no human drivers:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/tech ... rules.html

This is the beginning of the robotics revolution that will touch all aspects of human society in ways that are unpredictable, it likely greatly significant for all humans.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120894

Postby andyalan10 » February 27th, 2018, 9:35 pm

And just as a slight counter to the general tone of postings on here.

Tesla did no autonomous driving tests in California last year, probably because when they did they were reporting human interventions per mile that were orders of magnitude worse than other vendors:-

https://electrek.co/2018/01/31/tesla-au ... ving-test/

And also:-

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/262 ... -dead-last

Andy

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120898

Postby odysseus2000 » February 27th, 2018, 10:09 pm

andyalan10
And just as a slight counter to the general tone of postings on here.

Tesla did no autonomous driving tests in California last year, probably because when they did they were reporting human interventions per mile that were orders of magnitude worse than other vendors:-



Yes, Tesla motors is a bit of an head scratcher.

Some say Musk is too distracted elsewhere, others that their tech is too simple, others that this is all stock manship, let others think they are ahead & then do some incredible things.

Dunno.

If Tesla motors are in serious trouble there is no sign of it in their stock price, but the longer before model 3 is available in large numbers, the more the doubts will grow.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#120981

Postby woolly » February 28th, 2018, 10:17 am

It's possible Tesla is keeping things under wraps until they have a shippable product - don't forget in December they announced they were working on custom AI silicon (https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/8/16750560/tesla-custom-ai-chips-hardware).

This article https://insideevs.com/all-tesla-vehicles-in-production-are-equipped-with-self-driving-hardware/ is a bit ambiguous and doesn't explicitly say that models with the full self-driving option already have the custom chips - maybe Nvidia is providing the necessary processing horsepower for these cars. But it does give an update of where Tesla is with this - they seem confident their system will leapfrog the competition. We'll see...

Of note in the article is the specific T&Cs for Tesla self-driving - for-profit ride sharing is explicitly forbidden:
“Please also note that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year.”
So Tesla is definitely aiming for a slice of the Uber and Lyft pie. Given that Tesla has paid close attention to real world logistics business models for the semi truck it would seem logical that they'd do the same for ride-sharing/taxis so I await news with interest.

Meanwhile even if full autonomous driving is perfected any time soon, it's going to take a lot longer for legislation, the public and insurers to catch up, particularly during the decades where autonomous and human-controlled vehicles share the roads.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#121023

Postby odysseus2000 » February 28th, 2018, 12:13 pm

Woolly
Meanwhile even if full autonomous driving is perfected any time soon, it's going to take a lot longer for legislation, the public and insurers to catch up, particularly during the decades where autonomous and human-controlled vehicles share the roads.


It depends on the performance of the self driving cars.

If they work much better than humans the move to adopt them in the developed nations will be fast as insurers will start to ratchet up the cost of human driven insurance and the economics of having no human driver will be so overwhelming as to force everyone to adopt, those that don't being uncompetitive.

There is a belief that if this stuff works it will take decades, but there will be severe economic forces that will imho drive a rapid deployment.

Of course if there are a series of crashes that are shown to be because there are unfixable flaws then the whole autonomous business will be still born.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126178

Postby Breelander » March 19th, 2018, 9:58 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:It depends on the performance of the self driving cars.

If they work much better than humans the move to adopt them in the developed nations will be fast as insurers will start to ratchet up the cost of human driven insurance...

Of course if there are a series of crashes that are shown to be because there are unfixable flaws then the whole autonomous business will be still born.



Self-driving Uber kills Arizona woman in first fatal crash involving pedestrian
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... zona-tempe

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126258

Postby woolly » March 20th, 2018, 8:14 am

Each day an average of 100 people die in (human driven) car crashes in the US alone - it's far worse in many other places. There are no global headlines about that because it's so common - this is news of the 'man bites dog' variety.

The aim with self-driving tech is to make the roads as safe if not safer than air travel, which also had somewhat shaky early days.

As for whether the general corporate culture at Uber, with its known cavalier attitude to people, is to blame for this particular incident - best leave that to the detailed investigation.

Of course, facts, nuances and details are irrelevant in forming concrete opinions - its only the headlines that matter... :)

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126312

Postby Itsallaguess » March 20th, 2018, 10:36 am

woolly wrote:
The aim with self-driving tech is to make the roads as safe if not safer than air travel, which also had somewhat shaky early days.

As for whether the general corporate culture at Uber, with its known cavalier attitude to people, is to blame for this particular incident - best leave that to the detailed investigation.

Of course, facts, nuances and details are irrelevant in forming concrete opinions - its only the headlines that matter...


One of the main issues with this death might not actually be the failure of the automatic driving systems to prevent the accident that led to the pedestrian's death, but the failure of the back-up person sat in the driver's seat to also react to the issue....

Perhaps one of the real stumbling blocks to the wholesale roll-out of this technology might not be the lack of trust in the computer-algorithms, but the complete lack of trust in the Plan-B human....

I'm also surprised that US litigation issues haven't prevented the roll-out of this technology onto normal roads. It might take a big US court case where someone puts the 'beta-testing-in-public' case to the test....

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Itsallaguess

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126359

Postby Meatyfool » March 20th, 2018, 12:09 pm

Automated cars will not stop deaths on the road. As others have said, the jury as out in this case until the facts are made public.

All drivers know that stopping a car involves thinking distance and braking distance. If someone walks out in front of a human driver nearer to the car than the sum of those distances, there will be an accident. If the pedestrian is "very" near, then they may be in the "kill zone".

The same is equally true of an automated car, with the exception that the "thinking" time will be miniscule in comparison to the human driver. However, this simply reduces the overall stopping distance, and if the pedestrian steps out within that overall distance, there is still going to be an accident. The "kill zone" is still there but much smaller than before.

And here is the rub: if there is a kill zone even for an automated car, how the hell is the standby human driver going to be able to stop the car sooner, when he has to add on his own thinking distance (never mind the "this car is infallible" distance!).

I see no reason to be bothered that this will derail automation, until such time as the evidence is contrary to the above.

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126373

Postby JamesMuenchen » March 20th, 2018, 12:41 pm

Meatyfool wrote: All drivers know that stopping a car involves thinking distance and braking distance. If someone walks out in front of a human driver nearer to the car than the sum of those distances, there will be an accident. If the pedestrian is "very" near, then they may be in the "kill zone".

The same is equally true of an automated car, with the exception that the "thinking" time will be miniscule in comparison to the human driver. However, this simply reduces the overall stopping distance, and if the pedestrian steps out within that overall distance, there is still going to be an accident. The "kill zone" is still there but much smaller than before.

You're only looking at the reactive element, there is also a predictive element. Are automated vehicles as good at recognising when another road-user is (for instance) erratic, distracted or just clearly hasn't seem them, and taking some early actions like slowing down, using the lights/horn, or whatever. I bet they're not.

Meatyfool wrote:
And here is the rub: if there is a kill zone even for an automated car, how the hell is the standby human driver going to be able to stop the car sooner, when he has to add on his own thinking distance (never mind the "this car is infallible" distance!).

By taking control before a pedestrian steps into the car's breaking distance. It may not be always be possible, but surely that is the whole point of the human?

It's true though that we don't know exactly what happened in this case, yet.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126382

Postby odysseus2000 » March 20th, 2018, 1:08 pm

The most recent tabular data I can find for the uk indicates substantial Year/Year declines, but sadly still over 3 deaths per day on uk roads:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... sv/preview

There is much more recent data, but I could not find yearly tables.

If machines are, as Musk claims for 1st generation devices, 50% better than humans & over 100 % better for the current system, the case for machine driving is overwhelming. Reducing the 3 deaths per day & 27,000 injuries per year is well worth having.

But it all comes down to practice. Do machines fail for as yet unknown/unexpected reasons? Each accident will have to be investigated & results over many examined.

Imho machines will soon be driving, but until the data supports this we are in a test phase & that will take time.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#126390

Postby JamesMuenchen » March 20th, 2018, 1:21 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The most recent tabular data I can find for the uk indicates substantial Year/Year declines, but sadly still over 3 deaths per day on uk roads:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... sv/preview

There is much more recent data, but I could not find yearly tables.

If machines are, as Musk claims for 1st generation devices, 50% better than humans & over 100 % better for the current system, the case for machine driving is overwhelming. Reducing the 3 deaths per day & 27,000 injuries per year is well worth having.

Surely the important measurement should be not deaths per day, but deaths per distance travelled?
The chart here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_States#Traffic_safety_compared_to_other_nations_by_traveled_distance
shows it as less than 10/billion KM

There's now been at least 2 deaths involving Teslas on autopilot, so their ratio must be very much higher.


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