Remove ads

Introducing the LemonFools Personal Finance Calculators

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4002
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 356 times
Been thanked: 614 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183105

Postby redsturgeon » November 26th, 2018, 9:09 pm

This sort of thing would stop me buying one.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/23 ... -accident/

John

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183159

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2018, 8:53 am

This sort of thing would stop me buying one.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/23 ... -accident/

John


Yep, 9 month and still not done is way too long.

Not sure how they fix this issue, but they will have to address it and maybe their own body shops are the answer, but that would be potentially expensive.

Regards,

redsturgeon
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4002
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:06 am
Has thanked: 356 times
Been thanked: 614 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183233

Postby redsturgeon » November 27th, 2018, 12:44 pm

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... r-10972598

Apparently Tesla sold 211 cars in China in October...

John

Howard
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 229
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183246

Postby Howard » November 27th, 2018, 1:25 pm

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/tesla-china-sales-plunge-70-in-october-10972598

Apparently Tesla sold 211 cars in China in October...

John


So they are well on the way to taking the Chinese market from VW, BMW, Mercedes and miscellaneous Chinese manufacturers?

This may explain Tesla's draconian price decreases.

:?

regards

Howard

Howard
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 229
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183253

Postby Howard » November 27th, 2018, 1:40 pm

And Tesla are now offering a one-month delivery quote for the model 3 in the USA. Order by the end of November and get a delivery before the end of December. Is this an early indication that they are having to work harder to sell the increased production?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1063121238954991617

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183265

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2018, 2:02 pm

Tesla China prices have been very volatile:

https://electrek.co/2018/11/22/tesla-pr ... trade-war/

This is one of the real life examples showing how tariff are having dramatic effects on business & consumers and likely one reason US markets have entered a bear phase.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2786
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 51 times
Been thanked: 122 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183380

Postby BobbyD » November 27th, 2018, 8:35 pm

Howard wrote:And Tesla are now offering a one-month delivery quote for the model 3 in the USA. Order by the end of November and get a delivery before the end of December. Is this an early indication that they are having to work harder to sell the increased production?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1063121238954991617

regards

Howard


Teslas lose $3750 of subsidy on stateside sales in January, so cars ordered now have effectively had a price rise and with fresh new and fully subsidised competition coming over the horizon who wouldn't wait for a look see.

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183382

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2018, 8:46 pm

Tesla disputes loss of Chinese sales:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2018-11-27

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183384

Postby odysseus2000 » November 27th, 2018, 8:47 pm

Trump threatens to cut all GM subsidies:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/27/busi ... index.html

Maybe give them to Tesla instead?

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2786
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 51 times
Been thanked: 122 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#183390

Postby BobbyD » November 27th, 2018, 8:53 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Trump threatens to cut all GM subsidies:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/27/busi ... index.html

Maybe give them to Tesla instead?

Regards,


More likely to give them to Big Coal...

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184552

Postby odysseus2000 » December 3rd, 2018, 6:59 pm

China said to cut 40% tariff on US cars, if so likely good for Tesla:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46422320

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2786
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 51 times
Been thanked: 122 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184554

Postby BobbyD » December 3rd, 2018, 7:09 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:China said to cut 40% tariff on US cars, if so likely good for Tesla:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46422320

Regards,


Only if they have spare capacity, in which case things are looking bad for Tesla.

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184562

Postby odysseus2000 » December 3rd, 2018, 7:50 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:China said to cut 40% tariff on US cars, if so likely good for Tesla:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46422320

Regards,

los
Only if they have spare capacity, in which case things are looking bad for Tesla.


Earlier people were saying Tesla had to raise prices in China and this was bad.

Now are you saying that lower prices for Tesla in China is also bad?

Tesla as I understand it have set aside a certain fraction of their output for export, so I also don't understand what "spare capacity" has to do with it.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2786
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 51 times
Been thanked: 122 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184602

Postby BobbyD » December 4th, 2018, 4:24 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:China said to cut 40% tariff on US cars, if so likely good for Tesla:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46422320

Regards,

los
Only if they have spare capacity, in which case things are looking bad for Tesla.


Earlier people were saying Tesla had to raise prices in China and this was bad.

Now are you saying that lower prices for Tesla in China is also bad?

Tesla as I understand it have set aside a certain fraction of their output for export, so I also don't understand what "spare capacity" has to do with it.

Regards,


How many billions of dollars is Tesla spending on becoming one of the Chinese manufacturers whose Great Protectionist Wall has just been scheduled for demolition?

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184683

Postby odysseus2000 » December 4th, 2018, 12:38 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:los
Only if they have spare capacity, in which case things are looking bad for Tesla.


Earlier people were saying Tesla had to raise prices in China and this was bad.

Now are you saying that lower prices for Tesla in China is also bad?

Tesla as I understand it have set aside a certain fraction of their output for export, so I also don't understand what "spare capacity" has to do with it.

Regards,


How many billions of dollars is Tesla spending on becoming one of the Chinese manufacturers whose Great Protectionist Wall has just been scheduled for demolition?


Tesla needs to satisfy Chinese demand now while creating the new factory to satisfy more Chinese demand in the future. Having the protectionist wall down will enable Tesla to price their current offerings competitively with other makers. Is that a bad thing?

Regards,

Howard
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 229
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184799

Postby Howard » December 5th, 2018, 12:49 am

Tesla are so behind the curve in China. One has to be very optimistic to think they can ramp up from selling a few hundred cars to gaining enough market share to be more than a niche player.

Is there much demand for Tesla models in the Chinese market? Enough to justify spending billions on a plant?

regards

Howard

BobbyD
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2786
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 51 times
Been thanked: 122 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184807

Postby BobbyD » December 5th, 2018, 5:23 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
Earlier people were saying Tesla had to raise prices in China and this was bad.

Now are you saying that lower prices for Tesla in China is also bad?

Tesla as I understand it have set aside a certain fraction of their output for export, so I also don't understand what "spare capacity" has to do with it.

Regards,


How many billions of dollars is Tesla spending on becoming one of the Chinese manufacturers whose Great Protectionist Wall has just been scheduled for demolition?


Tesla needs to satisfy Chinese demand now while creating the new factory to satisfy more Chinese demand in the future. Having the protectionist wall down will enable Tesla to price their current offerings competitively with other makers. Is that a bad thing?

Regards,


...but they would be satisfying that Chinese demand at the expense of satisfying demand elsewhere since they can't produce enough vehicles. They aren't actually selling any more cars, and when they do increase capacity, with their factory in china, they won't have the protection from American built cars.

In the short term they are selling the same number of cars, in the long run they face increased competition in the Chinese market.

dspp
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2503
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 1566 times
Been thanked: 467 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#184843

Postby dspp » December 5th, 2018, 10:54 am

Howard wrote:Tesla are so behind the curve in China. One has to be very optimistic to think they can ramp up from selling a few hundred cars to gaining enough market share to be more than a niche player.

Is there much demand for Tesla models in the Chinese market? Enough to justify spending billions on a plant?

regards

Howard


My observation is that I see more Teslas in China than I do in the UK. There are a few reasons for this in my opinion:

1. Higher levels of income inequality in China mean that more Chinese have more disposable income than is commonly realised, i.e. they can afford it.
2. If you have wealth, amongst a certain cadre they like to flaunt it. I also see a lot of Phaetons and suchlike which you don't see much in UK.
3. There is a strong social pressure in China to go green. The pollution is very in-your-face, indeed in everybodies face. Buying Tesla is a way to show your concern whilst also satisfying 2.
4. It has certain usability advantages, such as access to roads on all days in all cities, not just on days restricted to your permit, better access to getting a permit, etc. This scene keeps on changing and is complex, but in China owning a car is only the first part of the battle. Being allowed to use it is the second part.

So in answer to the question, "is there enough demand in China ?", I'd say absolutely there is enough demand. Given that China outbuilds the rest of the world (approx 2:1 on various numbers I've scanned) for EVs it also makes sense for Tesla to put a factory inside China. There are of course risks, but on balance it seems a sensible move. It is notable that CN gov are going to allow Tesla to have 100% control of their Chinese subsidiary.

People who think that China is some rinky dinky copycat third world country really don't get it. I can compare a Chinese industrial rustbelt city like (say) Shenyang favourably with a UK industrial city like (say) Manchester. Both have problems, but one sees the future with optimism.

Oh and a fair chunk of the plant set up costs will be borne either by suppliers, or by government soft money.

regards, dspp

Howard
2 Lemon pips
Posts: 229
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 85 times
Been thanked: 121 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#185193

Postby Howard » December 6th, 2018, 11:01 pm

dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:Tesla are so behind the curve in China. One has to be very optimistic to think they can ramp up from selling a few hundred cars to gaining enough market share to be more than a niche player.

Is there much demand for Tesla models in the Chinese market? Enough to justify spending billions on a plant?

regards

Howard


My observation is that I see more Teslas in China than I do in the UK. There are a few reasons for this in my opinion:

1. Higher levels of income inequality in China mean that more Chinese have more disposable income than is commonly realised, i.e. they can afford it.
2. If you have wealth, amongst a certain cadre they like to flaunt it. I also see a lot of Phaetons and suchlike which you don't see much in UK.
3. There is a strong social pressure in China to go green. The pollution is very in-your-face, indeed in everybodies face. Buying Tesla is a way to show your concern whilst also satisfying 2.
4. It has certain usability advantages, such as access to roads on all days in all cities, not just on days restricted to your permit, better access to getting a permit, etc. This scene keeps on changing and is complex, but in China owning a car is only the first part of the battle. Being allowed to use it is the second part.

So in answer to the question, "is there enough demand in China ?", I'd say absolutely there is enough demand. Given that China outbuilds the rest of the world (approx 2:1 on various numbers I've scanned) for EVs it also makes sense for Tesla to put a factory inside China. There are of course risks, but on balance it seems a sensible move. It is notable that CN gov are going to allow Tesla to have 100% control of their Chinese subsidiary.

People who think that China is some rinky dinky copycat third world country really don't get it. I can compare a Chinese industrial rustbelt city like (say) Shenyang favourably with a UK industrial city like (say) Manchester. Both have problems, but one sees the future with optimism.

Oh and a fair chunk of the plant set up costs will be borne either by suppliers, or by government soft money.

regards, dspp


Yes, I agree with your comments about China but seeing more Teslas there than in the UK is hardly a significant factor. I don't believe Elon Musk is going to build a billion pound plant in the UK, he will need a much bigger potential market! I guess if you believe that China will just keep growing and growing, eventually it might justify his investment. However it may be that China's growth is slowing and the size of their premium electric car market will not be huge. Surely the Chinese government will not let a US company cream off a huge profit from supplying cars. They will support their home-grown manufacturers. And I don't see Tesla doing an Apple and manufacturing cars in China and exporting them to the USA. The US Government won't let that happen.

And if the US economy turns down a little, it will be interesting to see if the US consumer demand for Teslas stays as buoyant as it has been recently. Their sales figures over the next year will give us an indication.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
Lemon Slice
Posts: 917
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 157 times
Been thanked: 114 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#185197

Postby odysseus2000 » December 6th, 2018, 11:35 pm

Tesla according to this and other reports will pay off its next debt with cash and shares:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tesl ... rt-2018-12

Market seems happy about this for now and if the share price should stay above the threshold it will be interesting how many of the bond holders opt for equity assuming there is a choice. These articles are in general too simplified to be much use for evaluating things. At one point a few weeks back Ron Baron was saying he expected Tesla to settle the repayment in cash suggesting as I understood him that this would be non-dilutive, but I am not sure.

Regards,


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests