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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#200444

Postby BobbyD » February 11th, 2019, 6:27 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:EVGO take on electric which I still think is too pessimistic:

https://youtu.be/iA55DSF4N-E

Regards,
I just think that the advantages of electric are so overwhelming that we are at a propellor-jet moment.


You think ICE's will still be around in 60 years time?

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#200505

Postby odysseus2000 » February 11th, 2019, 11:10 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:I just think that the advantages of electric are so overwhelming that we are at a propellor-jet moment.


You think ICE's will still be around in 60 years time?


We still have horses, so probably some, but as mass transport I doubt it.

One can argue that there are currently no practical hydro carbon free long duration aero engines or co2 free rocket motors, so for the moment they are the two areas which have no clear path to replacement, but I suspect in long duration aero there may be significant improvements that reduce hydro carbon consumption if not eliminate it.

One can not also entirely neglect some of the more wild ideas from physics in terms of anti-gravity etc. All of these appear impossible and may stay that way, but people work on such things and like warp drive there are those who believe.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200716

Postby BobbyD » February 11th, 2019, 11:39 pm

A Tesla vehicle crashed into ‘several signs on the road’ in New Jersey last night and the driver claims that his Model X was on Autopilot and he couldn’t disengage the driver assist system, which would be a first.
The accident happened in Middlesex County last night when a Model X crashed off the road on route 1 near North Brunswick.

The driver was not hurt nor charged, but the vehicle reportedly “sustained extensive damage.” it was towed away as pictured above.

According to local news outlet NJ.com, the police wrote in the report:

“The vehicle could have gone straight or taken the Adams Lane exit, but instead split the difference and went down the middle, taking the vehicle off the roadway and striking several objects at the roadside,”


- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/teslas- ... -half.html

t. Rowe Price cut its stake in Tesla in half during the fourth quarter, according to a government filing.

The international money manager owned 8.98 million Tesla shares by the end of last year, according to a filing at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The new, smaller stake represents 5.2 percent of the electric auto maker's common shares outstanding at the end of December. The Baltimore-based fund group reported in a prior filing that it owned 17.4 million shares, or a 10.2 percent stake, as of Sept. 30.


- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/teslas- ... -half.html

MIT Self-Driving Cars: State of the Art (2019): https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... RxaMDDMWQQ

Other MIT slef driving car vids here: https://deeplearning.mit.edu/

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#200721

Postby odysseus2000 » February 11th, 2019, 11:58 pm

This is very interesting on the Maxwell acquisition:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fE97Mj7Cmzk

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200724

Postby BobbyD » February 12th, 2019, 12:12 am

Rather enjoying this at the moment: Emilio Frazzoli, CTO, nuTonomy - MIT Self-Driving Cars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWSbItd ... vNjby9efdf

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#200726

Postby BobbyD » February 12th, 2019, 1:42 am

BobbyD wrote:Rather enjoying this at the moment: Emilio Frazzoli, CTO, nuTonomy - MIT Self-Driving Cars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWSbItd ... vNjby9efdf


Very wide ranging touching on amongst other things the economics of AD's as a service vs as a consumer product, where you are going to see them first and why, different approaches to developing AD's (eg. starting at level 2 and working up vs starting at L5), different ways in which AD's can work, a slightly more nuanced approach to the who should you run over given the choice problem, and what we do know about AD's has taught us about what we don't know about human drivers.

Interesting, approachable, well presented by somebody with a long history in the area.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200796

Postby Howard » February 12th, 2019, 11:08 am

We should soon be able to read about European customers' experiences with their new Model 3s.

At least two Ro Ro ferries have arrived and disgorged their cargoes.

There still seems to be some doubt about Autopilot in Europe. Let's hope Tesla knows what it is doing? It may not be straightforward updating cars over the internet if the modification requires Regulatory Approval. This doesn't just apply to Autopilot but may apply to future upgrades. The following thoughtful article sums up the current situation.

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/26437/the- ... an-model-3

No doubt the Tesla fans will be patient, but this may be a test of how thorough the company is in getting service issues right.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200807

Postby odysseus2000 » February 12th, 2019, 11:52 am

BobbyD wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Rather enjoying this at the moment: Emilio Frazzoli, CTO, nuTonomy - MIT Self-Driving Cars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWSbItd ... vNjby9efdf


Very wide ranging touching on amongst other things the economics of AD's as a service vs as a consumer product, where you are going to see them first and why, different approaches to developing AD's (eg. starting at level 2 and working up vs starting at L5), different ways in which AD's can work, a slightly more nuanced approach to the who should you run over given the choice problem, and what we do know about AD's has taught us about what we don't know about human drivers.

Interesting, approachable, well presented by somebody with a long history in the area.


I did not like Emilio's talk, it was too focused on his view that the future is robotic cars and ride sharing and within that type of approach as he noted the cost of the hardware and his salary were small compared to the revenue that such system could bring. He justified himself by arguing that the recent advances in auto pilots were nothing more than was done 20 years ago, completely ignoring that then it was a applied to just a few cars not the hundreds of thousands currently and that the current technology is very different to what was available 20 years ago.

This lecture:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53YvP6gdD7U

is in my opinion far more about what is available now, how it works and what it can do and what may it be able to do. Very significant to me were that the cost of the neural net technology is falling dramatically and that there are competitions to bring it as low as possible with some systems getting over 90% success for just a few $ of cost, some for cents. Moreover the modern neural nets are working like humans, not requiring billions of calculations but able to look over a situation and give the best moves as a Grand Master would do with a chess board.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200849

Postby BobbyD » February 12th, 2019, 3:33 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I did not like Emilio's talk, it was too focused on his view that the future is robotic cars and ride sharing and within that type of approach as he noted the cost of the hardware and his salary were small compared to the revenue that such system could bring. He justified himself by arguing that the recent advances in auto pilots were nothing more than was done 20 years ago, completely ignoring that then it was a applied to just a few cars not the hundreds of thousands currently and that the current technology is very different to what was available 20 years ago.


Whether or not you agree with the arguments put forwards or not, and there are a number of them, it's hard to argue that it wasn't a coherent, well referenced, lecture using specific projections and actual video footage from numerous sources by somebody whose experience in the field goes back to what most people consider the beginning of modern AD development. He justifies his opinions with argument, his presence is justified by his senior position in a company currently running level 5 taxis in Boston and Singapore, he has no need to justify himself.

You might choose to put a counterargument, but to dislike it because it doesn't agree with your current view does't seem very constructive.

It's hardly his fault if somebody built a car which was capable of autobahn driving in the 90's, which would I guess make Tesla's autopilot 20th century technology, although I can understand why you didn't like hearing about it.

Daimler boosted the project’s funding. Car lobbyists ironed out doubts inside the French government. And in October 1994, Dickmanns’ team picked up a group of high-ranking guests from Charles de Gaulle airport, drove them to the nearby motorway and switched the two cars into self-driving mode.

An engineer remained in the front seat of each car — with his hands on the steering wheel in case something went wrong — but the cars were doing the driving.


- https://www.politico.eu/article/delf-dr ... -mercedes/

Sound familiar?

...and he isn't saying the current tech is no different to what was around in '94, he is saying if you are still at L2 you have not progressed from what was available 20 years ago. The cutting edge is L5, and he goes on to talk about how his project which is an MIT spinoff have gone about achieving L5.

Ernst Dickmanns’ VaMoRs Mercedes Van, 1986-2003

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I39sxwYKlEE

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200895

Postby BobbyD » February 12th, 2019, 6:16 pm

Base Level VW ID expected to be single motor, 48kWh, 200 miles £22,500

- https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswage ... tric-hatch

- https://www.carbuyer.co.uk/news/154980/ ... lease-date

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200950

Postby odysseus2000 » February 12th, 2019, 9:57 pm

BobbyD
Whether or not you agree with the arguments put forwards or not, and there are a number of them, it's hard to argue that it wasn't a coherent, well referenced, lecture using specific projections and actual video footage from numerous sources by somebody whose experience in the field goes back to what most people consider the beginning of modern AD development. He justifies his opinions with argument, his presence is justified by his senior position in a company currently running level 5 taxis in Boston and Singapore, he has no need to justify himself.

You might choose to put a counterargument, but to dislike it because it doesn't agree with your current view does't seem very constructive.

It's hardly his fault if somebody built a car which was capable of autobahn driving in the 90's, which would I guess make Tesla's autopilot 20th century technology, although I can understand why you didn't like hearing about it.


Emilio is an academic so it should not be surprising that he can give coherent well referenced talk.

He is Chief Technology Office of a business and has at least two academic appointments as well.

This is a classic situation I have seen many times and almost always raises red flags as Venture Capital wants folk who have significant positions is a business to also have "skin" in the game. When you have situations like this it is very hard for the person to put serious effort into the business since he has too many other responsibilities and that rarely leads to good things happening, usually the business flounders and fails to reach the potential it would have with a Chief Tech officer who has just that responsibility.

It was clear, at least to me, that he was doing way too much selling in his lecture and as I have said the comparison between a 20+ year old technology in a very limited number of cars and the modern version using a technology that was not available 20+ years ago is meaningless.

It may be that he is right and that level 5 in a ride sharing environment is the way this technology will develop, but as I look at the developments in neural nets I come to a different conclusion.

This is why we have markets of different minded folk to do price discovery.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#200958

Postby BobbyD » February 12th, 2019, 10:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Whether or not you agree with the arguments put forwards or not, and there are a number of them, it's hard to argue that it wasn't a coherent, well referenced, lecture using specific projections and actual video footage from numerous sources by somebody whose experience in the field goes back to what most people consider the beginning of modern AD development. He justifies his opinions with argument, his presence is justified by his senior position in a company currently running level 5 taxis in Boston and Singapore, he has no need to justify himself.

You might choose to put a counterargument, but to dislike it because it doesn't agree with your current view does't seem very constructive.

It's hardly his fault if somebody built a car which was capable of autobahn driving in the 90's, which would I guess make Tesla's autopilot 20th century technology, although I can understand why you didn't like hearing about it.


Emilio is an academic so it should not be surprising that he can give coherent well referenced talk.

He is Chief Technology Office of a business and has at least two academic appointments as well.

This is a classic situation I have seen many times and almost always raises red flags as Venture Capital wants folk who have significant positions is a business to also have "skin" in the game.


I don't think you need to worry about VC, the company sold for $450 million in 2017, and is owned by a firm with a £20 billion market cap.

odysseus2000 wrote:It may be that he is right and that level 5 in a ride sharing environment is the way this technology will develop, but as I look at the developments in neural nets I come to a different conclusion.


Then a structured counter argument would be far more constructive that a dismissive me no like.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201033

Postby Howard » February 13th, 2019, 10:50 am

From out of left field comes a US-based challenger to Tesla. Will they get backing from Amazon and GM?

Obviously a completely different vehicle with totally different characteristics. But possibly much more appropriate to the wider US market. And already employing technicians with Tesla backgrounds.

This range will appeal to another strata of wealthy consumers who don't value ridiculous acceleration and juvenile electronic features. They may enjoy literally looking down on model 3 fanatics? :)

https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/rivian-gm-amazon/

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201063

Postby odysseus2000 » February 13th, 2019, 12:11 pm

Howard wrote:From out of left field comes a US-based challenger to Tesla. Will they get backing from Amazon and GM?

Obviously a completely different vehicle with totally different characteristics. But possibly much more appropriate to the wider US market. And already employing technicians with Tesla backgrounds.

This range will appeal to another strata of wealthy consumers who don't value ridiculous acceleration and juvenile electronic features. They may enjoy literally looking down on model 3 fanatics? :)

https://electrek.co/2019/02/12/rivian-gm-amazon/

regards

Howard


Ha ha, was this styled by Lada?

We are now in the "me-too" phase of the electric car revolution where everyone and their dog are bringing a new electric car to market, very like the dot com rise late last century.

My guess is that most of these will fail and be forgotten, especially if they are ugly and try to bring a 20th century modus operandi into the 21st century.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201115

Postby BobbyD » February 13th, 2019, 5:11 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Ha ha, was this styled by Lada?


Again Ody, I'm not sure your knee jerk reflex to defend Tesla is leading you to the most pertinent part of the story.

odysseus2000 wrote:We are now in the "me-too" phase of the electric car revolution where everyone and their dog are bringing a new electric car to market, very like the dot com rise late last century.


The everybody but Tesla is stupidly ignoring electric phase didn't last long.

Good news, no?

odysseus2000 wrote:My guess is that most of these will fail and be forgotten, especially if they are ugly and try to bring a 20th century modus operandi into the 21st century.


I'm sure it's a prototypes aesthetics which will determine it's future not the fact that it has a 400 mile range, 4 wheel drive, does 0-60 in 3 seconds and can operate safely in 3 feet of water... If there is a criticism to be made I'd have thought it would have been that it should be easy to pack enough batteries for a 400 mile range in to a vehicle that size, and acceleration is always good with electric motors which leaves you with a robust waterproof unit for the batteries which surely isn't beyond the wit of a company with the ability to turn cars out out in their millions to recreate, assuming we have the full story...

Your habit of falling back on 20th century as an insult is perplexing bearing in mind you keep erroneously comparing Musk to Ford, and both electric and L2 autonomous are 20th century techs. What exactly is it you see as being 21st century?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201122

Postby Howard » February 13th, 2019, 5:20 pm

Has Tesla delivered a Model3 to a customer in Europe yet? The publicity photos a few days ago featured dealers taking deliveries. I've looked for customer reviews on Youtube but there aren't any from actual customers. Even journalists haven't been allowed to show a test drive.

It would be nice to see a review by a European customer who has paid for and received a car from the first Glovis ship which docked recently. Amongst other positive issues, this would confirm that Tesla had actually got European approval for Autopilot.

Normally enthusiastic owners rush to publish videos. I'm bemused that Tesla have made such a fuss of European deliveries and then there is a news gap.

Has anyone seen a privately owned Tesla 3 in Europe yet? And even better, one with Autopilot engaged?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201128

Postby odysseus2000 » February 13th, 2019, 5:50 pm

I almost feel like I wrote this, but I didn't although it sums up how I feel about the German car industries approach to battery vehicles:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to ... -sleeping/

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201143

Postby BobbyD » February 13th, 2019, 6:37 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I almost feel like I wrote this, but I didn't although it sums up how I feel about the German car industries approach to battery vehicles:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to ... -sleeping/

Regards,


I don't think your writing is that bad Ody, although I did struggle to discern any actual argument in the piece other than that Tesla are great and some other people produce ugly cars, but then I was struggling to maintain concentration by the time he was talkling about people not burning his house down...

Today, while I write this sentence, the Model 3 from Tesla, an affordable fully electric vehicle that works in the ordinary life of a human, was delivered in the thousands to waiting customers in Europe. I am not talking about just a few hundred per country or a few thousand, but a bigger picture — future annual deliveries in the hundreds of thousands in Europe alone. That has never happened before...


Hasn't happened yet either.

Tesla has the largest fleet of cars with an autonomous driving system and the most miles driven on that system globally.


Tesla doesn't have an autonomous driving system, and it has clocked precisely 0 autonomous miles.

This is very important to comprehend, because to build an electric vehicle, if you have ICE tools, ICE experience, and ICE people, it is very hard. It is harder than most believe because it looks so similar from the outside — despite so much difference inside. We have seen the results from German automakers building EVs. Some of them are actually ICE vehicles with a battery and electric powertrain instead. Others are quite ugly. Some are nice to look at but fall behind in all specifications Tesla has proven possible today.


Again with the history in this forward looking piece. Hybrids were a response to regulation. They served a purpose. They bridged a gap, as did sticking a load of batteries and a couple of electric motors in to an existing car. Which is also rapidly becoming the past.

Some extracted facts out of a long list:

BMW sold 34,829 BEVs globally in 2018 (14% of Tesla and shrinking).
VW sold around 33,000 BEVs in 2018 (13% of Tesla).
Audi sold almost no BEVs in 2018.
Mercedes-Benz sold no BEVs in 2018.
Porsche sold no BEVs in 2018.
BMW sales did grow 1.8% overall, but its BEV sales decreased.
VW grew 0.2%, with about 0.5% of its total vehicles being BEVs.
Audi shrank (3.5%), with no BEV sales.
Daimler grow 2.4%, just a small number of Smart BEVs produced and sold.


Relevance to the 'ability of our auto industry to survive and prosper'?

Strangely happy to base an argument on highly speculative European sales figures for Tesla's model 3 in Europe but completely ignoring a slew of confirmed releases by German automakers and their initial reception by those who have been allowed to play with them.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201144

Postby Howard » February 13th, 2019, 6:41 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I almost feel like I wrote this, but I didn't although it sums up how I feel about the German car industries approach to battery vehicles:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/10/to ... -sleeping/

Regards,


I only got to his third paragraph:

"Today, while I write this sentence, the Model 3 from Tesla, an affordable fully electric vehicle that works in the ordinary life of a human, was delivered in the thousands to waiting customers in Europe."

and realised that he probably doesn't know what he is talking about. See my post above. I don't think this was true when he wrote the article three days ago. Worse than clickbait!

German car manufacturers deliver on time and tend to deliver the highest quality, in quantity. Let's see if Tesla can do this continuously and make a profit!

Hopefully, Ody, you'd get your facts right before writing.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#201147

Postby TUK020 » February 13th, 2019, 6:45 pm

BobbyD wrote:Relevance to the 'ability of our auto industry to survive and prosper'?


BobbyD
You persist in attempting to resolve this through rational argument.
There is only one thing I say to you:
"Carrots"
:D
tuk020


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