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Musk endeavours

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dspp
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207509

Postby dspp » March 13th, 2019, 8:03 pm

Howard wrote:To give Tesla their due, they have shown it is possible to manufacture EVs with a reasonable range. Totally suitable for a second car. But will they be able to ramp up sales to match their production capacity?

To break into the mass premium market in Europe (and probably China) manufacturers need to make EVs at a starting price of around £20 - £25k for a base model. Then they can offer more luxurious versions at higher prices. This will open up a very large second car market.

I don't think Tesla will be that successful selling a really basic model 3 for around £35k in the UK (or Europe). Buyers of this value of car would expect leather (or "vegan" leather) seats and a "luxury" interior. Who wants to pay this amount of money and look a cheapskate when your friends get in the car?



Howard,

I get into friends' cars which are BMW 7-series and similar, and into other friends' Tesla S. Both are high-end cars - up to you whether you call them premium or luxury or whatever. OK the aesthetic is different, but nonetheless they are not my cheapo Golf. I guess my NAD has a different aesthetic than my Nakamichi, that's product differentiation at work.

And there is no doubt about it, but that Tesla are making people's "first" cars and they are being used as such. In fact they are too expensive to be the 'second' car and for many Tesla families the anecdote is that this role is reserved for a used Prius, until such time as used Teslas become available.

Whether Tesla is a good investment I am unsure about. But my experience is that we should be very wary of 'trashtalking' them as a product as that would be to misinform our investment decisions.

And VW are fully aware that Tesla are the real deal in competition terms. That is why they are going all-out on the ID platform. They too realise this is a bet-the farm, or at least a bet-the-burning-bridge moment. Are they Nokians at the bridge, facing Apple? Difficult call .......

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207519

Postby PeterGray » March 13th, 2019, 8:34 pm

If it has all of the features of a Tesla it will be hard for VW to make it much cheaper than the model 3 unless they sell at a negative or very low margin based on the tear down analysis of the Tesla model 3.

The difference is that VW is a well managed company with lots of resources, both financial and skill, loads of experience of producing reliable cars that people want. Tesla is a start up, with a flaky CEO producing some of its cars from a tent. It would be no surprise at all if VW (and others) were able to produce cars with a similar spec for less. Tesla may well end up as a well established and successful car manufacturer too, but it's a long way from being there.

As an investment case if you think that's possible then Tesla is probably the better choice, but to write of VW as not being able to compete successfully with Tesla is incredibly short sighted.

My diesel Golf with be due for replacement in the next few years and the electric VW looks like a very promising possible replacement (I'm lucky enough to have off street parking so charging is possible), however at the moment I couldn't see myself considering a Tesla

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207537

Postby odysseus2000 » March 13th, 2019, 9:22 pm

PeterGray wrote:If it has all of the features of a Tesla it will be hard for VW to make it much cheaper than the model 3 unless they sell at a negative or very low margin based on the tear down analysis of the Tesla model 3.

The difference is that VW is a well managed company with lots of resources, both financial and skill, loads of experience of producing reliable cars that people want. Tesla is a start up, with a flaky CEO producing some of its cars from a tent. It would be no surprise at all if VW (and others) were able to produce cars with a similar spec for less. Tesla may well end up as a well established and successful car manufacturer too, but it's a long way from being there.

As an investment case if you think that's possible then Tesla is probably the better choice, but to write of VW as not being able to compete successfully with Tesla is incredibly short sighted.

My diesel Golf with be due for replacement in the next few years and the electric VW looks like a very promising possible replacement (I'm lucky enough to have off street parking so charging is possible), however at the moment I couldn't see myself considering a Tesla


Many people are making these sorts of points about Tesla, but imho they are totally underestimating what Tesla have done, are doing and will do. Tesla lines are among the most computerised and efficient in the world, they are being relentless refined and all the issues that folk have pointed out are being addressed.

Moreover, people are also not factoring in the love that many have for Tesla and the loathing that many have for VW, especially US buyers who bought a VW and then couldn't drive it till its emissions were fixed or have been saddled with domestic lemons. Even GM which is anything but a loved US brand are doing better with their electric cars as people now want electric propulsion.

Musk is very like Robert Graves, "I Claudius" a man who realises that the weaker and more baffoonish he appears the less his competitors take him seriously and the more easy it is for his business to hurt them.

Additionally many people have hated ice cars for a very long time, hated the pollution they produce, the need for foreign oil to fuel them and that hate has extended to the car manufactures who have given them these options and worse have often sold them cars that are not that safe. Witness even the testing of one of the Volvo's v the Model 3 and many makers are a lot worse than Volvo for safety. So in some sense Tesla is the real oncoming storm that legacy auto has dismissed and now suddenly it is upon them and hurting them.

Q1 Tesla sales may be as poor as the estimates say or not, but Tesla now have cars in the field that are far better than existing ice in every respect as far as I can tell and if they start to sell, as I expect, legacy auto has a very big problem.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207547

Postby dspp » March 13th, 2019, 9:59 pm

PeterGray wrote:If it has all of the features of a Tesla it will be hard for VW to make it much cheaper than the model 3 unless they sell at a negative or very low margin based on the tear down analysis of the Tesla model 3.

The difference is that VW is a well managed company with lots of resources, both financial and skill, loads of experience of producing reliable cars that people want. Tesla is a start up, with a flaky CEO producing some of its cars from a tent. It would be no surprise at all if VW (and others) were able to produce cars with a similar spec for less. Tesla may well end up as a well established and successful car manufacturer too, but it's a long way from being there.

As an investment case if you think that's possible then Tesla is probably the better choice, but to write of VW as not being able to compete successfully with Tesla is incredibly short sighted.

My diesel Golf with be due for replacement in the next few years and the electric VW looks like a very promising possible replacement (I'm lucky enough to have off street parking so charging is possible), however at the moment I couldn't see myself considering a Tesla


PG,

Both VW and Tesla appear to be using 'conventional' lithium battery technology. The difference is that Tesla are well along the cost/scale curve and have derisked hugely. Meanwhile VW are at first base with huge risk. So on balance it is Tesla that have the advantage in mfg imho. I admit it is not a level fight as VW have more $$$ behind them than Tesla, but nonetheless VW are not necessarily in the perfect sweet spot that you portray.

It would be nice if both were providing good affordable products in time for me next-but-one-car. The gearbox on my Golf has 230,000 miles in the rearview mirror and the 4th gear is ordinarily absent-on-demand. I fear a replacement event may arrive earlier than my BEV moment :( .

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207649

Postby Howard » March 14th, 2019, 12:18 pm

It looks as though Model 3s are now being released by China customs. This delay will hurt sales in Q1.

Yet again Tesla are indicating that they aren't in tune with markets other than their rich Californian base. Surely other manufacturers get their labelling right for major export markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1QV14T

I'm amazed that analysts are still forecasting high sales for Tesla in Q1. If this delay in customs is correct it will reduce worldwide sales of all Teslas in Q1. What will this do to profitability? And cashflow?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207656

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 12:38 pm

Howard wrote:It looks as though Model 3s are now being released by China customs. This delay will hurt sales in Q1.

Yet again Tesla are indicating that they aren't in tune with markets other than their rich Californian base. Surely other manufacturers get their labelling right for major export markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1QV14T

I'm amazed that analysts are still forecasting high sales for Tesla in Q1. If this delay in customs is correct it will reduce worldwide sales of all Teslas in Q1. What will this do to profitability? And cashflow?

regards

Howard


All the analysis I have read has suggested low Tesla sales in Q1, but its confusing and contradictory such that I don't put too much weight on the estimates.

Musk said demand was off the scale for the model 3.

As I currently see things any sales result that is above the more pessimistic estimates will produce a rally in the equity price, but any result around the low estimates is likely imho already baked into the current price.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207660

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 12:50 pm

Howard wrote:Yet again Tesla are indicating that they aren't in tune with markets other than their rich Californian base. Surely other manufacturers get their labelling right for major export markets.


...or possibly begin a new export pathway quietly with a small pathfinder delivery to make sure everything runs smoothly, and then announce when they have a decent stock to distribute to customers.


odysseus2000 wrote:Additionally many people have hated ice cars for a very long time, hated the pollution they produce, the need for foreign oil to fuel them and that hate has extended to the car manufactures who have given them these options and worse have often sold them cars that are not that safe.


Imagine how much they are going to love a car company which builds electric cars in a carbon neutral way.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207661

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 12:54 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:All the analysis I have read has suggested low Tesla sales in Q1, but its confusing and contradictory such that I don't put too much weight on the estimates.


If sales are poor in Q1 despite massive temporary price cuts why is there any expectation that they will improve in subsequent quarters?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207676

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 2:05 pm

BobbyD wrote:
Howard wrote:Yet again Tesla are indicating that they aren't in tune with markets other than their rich Californian base. Surely other manufacturers get their labelling right for major export markets.


...or possibly begin a new export pathway quietly with a small pathfinder delivery to make sure everything runs smoothly, and then announce when they have a decent stock to distribute to customers.


odysseus2000 wrote:Additionally many people have hated ice cars for a very long time, hated the pollution they produce, the need for foreign oil to fuel them and that hate has extended to the car manufactures who have given them these options and worse have often sold them cars that are not that safe.


Imagine how much they are going to love a car company which builds electric cars in a carbon neutral way.


Imagine how many VW owners suffered over the emission lies and then imagine how many of them have been put off VW for a generation.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207678

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 2:11 pm

BobbyD
If sales are poor in Q1 despite massive temporary price cuts why is there any expectation that they will improve in subsequent quarters?


Tesla have by far the best electric car currently available: A loved CEO and a loved brand, much reduced service costs, cool factor, outstanding performance, no emissions, currently no congestion charge as I understand it,... Many advantages and bragging factor too...

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207681

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 2:30 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Imagine how many VW owners suffered over the emission lies and then imagine how many of them have been put off VW for a generation.

Regards,


...and yet more people are buying VW's now than ever before, despite the fact that fewer people are buying cars than in recent years.

I have a relative in exactly the position you describe. His SEAT had the fix, and at the time he questioned why anybody would ever trust VW again. Last week he was trying to decide whether or not to replace it with another SEAT or to splash out on the car he really wants which is an Audi.

You can retrawl Dieslegate as much as you like, the fact is VW's market position has improved since. Actual car buyers really aren't that bothered, as witnessed by the record numbers of them buying VW's.

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD]
If sales are poor in Q1 despite massive temporary price cuts why is there any expectation that they will improve in subsequent quarters?


Tesla have by far the best electric car currently available: A loved CEO and a loved brand, much reduced service costs, cool factor, outstanding performance, no emissions, currently no congestion charge as I understand it,... Many advantages and bragging factor too...

Regards,


...and apparently terrible sales.

Do you think that the electric car is doomed, or that you might be slightly over egging Tesla's pudding because it is hard to see how both of your positions can be simultaneously true.

If Tesla's sales are bad in Q1 despite massive and temporary price cuts why do you think they will be better in Q2 and subsequent quarters when the cars will be more expensive, and how much of future quarters sales do you think those price cuts might have cannibalised future quarter's sales?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207689

Postby PeterGray » March 14th, 2019, 3:19 pm

Imagine how many VW owners suffered over the emission lies and then imagine how many of them have been put off VW for a generation.

I have a diesel Golf which had to have the software "update". No problems. I'm not best pleased, but in fact for me the big issue is that the general advice at the time - that diesel was better for the environment - was clearly wrong. Sure VW fiddled the tests, as did others, though perhaps not as blatantly, but in reality no ICE emissions figures mean much in real life.

I'll very likely buy VW again, it's been a great car other than concerns about emissions, which would apply to a large extent with any diesel I'd bought at the time. Would I have confidence a Tesla would still be running problem free after 10 years? No - that may prove to be an unfair judgment, but until they have a lot more real world history it's one a lot of people are likely to make.

Tesla... A loved CEO. Well, yes, by some, by not all by a long way. A successful global car company cannot base success on a fan club.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207690

Postby dspp » March 14th, 2019, 3:24 pm

PeterGray wrote: I'm not best pleased, but in fact for me the big issue is that the general advice at the time - that diesel was better for the environment - was clearly wrong.


To be fair diesel was best for the environment from a global warming perspective, which is relevant to medium & long term human life. However petrol was better for the human environment in the short term (because diesel emit particulates and Nox & Sox).

Not exactly a distinction VW was hiding behind mind you :)

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207695

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 3:55 pm

dspp wrote:
PeterGray wrote: I'm not best pleased, but in fact for me the big issue is that the general advice at the time - that diesel was better for the environment - was clearly wrong.


To be fair diesel was best for the environment from a global warming perspective, which is relevant to medium & long term human life. However petrol was better for the human environment in the short term (because diesel emit particulates and Nox & Sox).

Not exactly a distinction VW was hiding behind mind you :)

regards, dspp


The law of unintended consequences strikes again. I wonder what the unforeseen fatal health flaw in electric will turn out to be...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207698

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 4:07 pm

dspp wrote:
PeterGray wrote: I'm not best pleased, but in fact for me the big issue is that the general advice at the time - that diesel was better for the environment - was clearly wrong.


To be fair diesel was best for the environment from a global warming perspective, which is relevant to medium & long term human life. However petrol was better for the human environment in the short term (because diesel emit particulates and Nox & Sox).

Not exactly a distinction VW was hiding behind mind you :)

regards, dspp


From what I have read, the new diesels which spray urea (marketed as adblue or similar) into the exhaust gases are very clean and as one gets more miles per co2 emission, hence better for the environment.

It was interesting in yesterdays budget that all new houses from the relatively near future will be allowed no local co2 emitting appliances, no coal/wood burners, no natural gas at all. With this kind of legislation coming the market for home storage of electrical power looks attractive to me. Charge via solar or grid over night and use to run heat pump during the day.

Musk did note that storage would grow faster than auto and Tesla are well placed to take some of this market.

Meanwhile there is talk in the UK of a government funded and operated battery making factory(s) to make batteries so that folk here can make stuff. Kind of think this would be better as a private business, but the UK is so far behind the commercial battery curve as to make anything a good improvement.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207700

Postby BobbyD » March 14th, 2019, 4:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Meanwhile there is talk in the UK of a government funded and operated battery making factory(s) to make batteries so that folk here can make stuff.


Oh god.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207735

Postby odysseus2000 » March 14th, 2019, 7:11 pm

The UK industrial strategy and batteries with some interesting stuff:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/c ... /38309.htm

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207789

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 7:57 am

The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

The Y addresses issues of the previous line up not having an hatch back & the range & performance of the various options fit in well with existing Tesla motors.

Whether the Standard price of $39k is too much will be decided by the market, but in general estate versions have historically sold for a premium over saloons.

The new super chargers have a capacity of 1000 miles per hour, which is imho a useful & practical figure.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.

Interesting too were his comments about storage & solar roofs which he said would receive more attention going forward after the all hands on deck times of 2018 for the model 3. Given the chancellors statement that new homes will soon be forbidden from carbon emission via natural gas, wood/coal I believe that solar roofs & storage will become important earners for Tesla.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207834

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 10:38 am

odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.


Ody

Your comments are interesting. You almost seem to be suggesting that you believe the "substantial demand for Tesla" is more than their real sales of cars. Those of us questioning your views are putting forward arguments that the real sales of Tesla cars are way below Elon Musk's imaginary sales.

Your quote that "Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade" is an interesting one.

Some of us might say that the first 250,000 cars are the easiest. Financing and selling the next three quarters of a million may be more difficult.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#207835

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 10:47 am

Howard wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.


Ody

Your comments are interesting. You almost seem to be suggesting that you believe the "substantial demand for Tesla" is more than their real sales of cars. Those of us questioning your views are putting forward arguments that the real sales of Tesla cars are way below Elon Musk's imaginary sales.

Your quote that "Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade" is an interesting one.

Some of us might say that the first 250,000 cars are the easiest. Financing and selling the next three quarters of a million may be more difficult.

regards

Howard


What I am wondering is how accurate are the estimates of Tesla sales.

Regards,


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