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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207877

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 12:59 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:The model Y unveiling was interesting.

There was near fever pitched excitement, like it was a mega rick Band rather than a car, suggesting to me that there is substantial demand for Tesla going in the face of recent estimates suggesting they can't sell Tesla cars.

The Y addresses issues of the previous line up not having an hatch back & the range & performance of the various options fit in well with existing Tesla motors.

Whether the Standard price of $39k is too much will be decided by the market, but in general estate versions have historically sold for a premium over saloons.

The new super chargers have a capacity of 1000 miles per hour, which is imho a useful & practical figure.

Elon gave a history lesson of how Tesla have gone from 0 cars to an expected 1 million in just over a decade & that within another decade he expected a Tesla to be driving on Mars.

Interesting too were his comments about storage & solar roofs which he said would receive more attention going forward after the all hands on deck times of 2018 for the model 3. Given the chancellors statement that new homes will soon be forbidden from carbon emission via natural gas, wood/coal I believe that solar roofs & storage will become important earners for Tesla.

Regards,


odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but they are all possibilities, maybe, upto etc etc.

Until they start making them and folk can buy them it is all marketing.

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207886

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 1:31 pm

Whilst I believe Tesla's stock price may be more than slightly irrational, is it surprising that TSLA is currently down 2.3% in pre-market trading following that announcement? I don't like to jump to conclusions about the cause of movements, but it does seem likely that it might have something to do with the reveal. So what is it people don't like, design, price, timescale...?

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207898

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 1:51 pm

Now down 4%. Not a massive slide by Tesla standards but probably not the response that a reveal which has been trailed for a year was hoped to bring.

Oh, also:

The Tesla Network Is Dead

A big part of Tesla’s (TSLA) growth story is built around the idea of the so-called Tesla Network, an autonomous vehicle service that CEO Elon Musk has claimed will compete with the likes of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) in the ride-hailing sector. Thus, the March 6 update of the Tesla website comes as something of a shock to those investors who had been projecting big revenues from the Tesla Network in the near future. The updated website has actually removed all reference to the Tesla Network.



- https://seekingalpha.com/article/424890 ... twork-dead

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207905

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:01 pm

Price rise going into events, then sell off after them.

Not a guaranteed rule but happens enough to make it a go to tactic for day traders.

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207911

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:09 pm

This is a good watch to give some background into where Tesla have come from and the mistake that GM made when they forcibly took electric cars from owners and squashed them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru89x1j ... tion=share

Bob Lutz, who is featured in this video, has been one of the visionary for the electric car bears, but there are false prophets.

It is also interesting how people in positions of power and influence become detached from reality and believe stupid things and then do stupid things. This happens all the time and on very big things as anyone who has studied history across time and cultures will know.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207914

Postby odysseus2000 » March 15th, 2019, 2:15 pm

BobbyD wrote:Now down 4%. Not a massive slide by Tesla standards but probably not the response that a reveal which has been trailed for a year was hoped to bring.

Oh, also:

The Tesla Network Is Dead

A big part of Tesla’s (TSLA) growth story is built around the idea of the so-called Tesla Network, an autonomous vehicle service that CEO Elon Musk has claimed will compete with the likes of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) in the ride-hailing sector. Thus, the March 6 update of the Tesla website comes as something of a shock to those investors who had been projecting big revenues from the Tesla Network in the near future. The updated website has actually removed all reference to the Tesla Network.



- https://seekingalpha.com/article/424890 ... twork-dead


Tesla is still an inside week, nothing unusual in the price action as I see the technicals.

Also Lyft and recently Uber have filed for IPO.

Perhaps in the by and by there will be another IPO, spinning off the Tesla Network, but will need more cars first. The development of the Tesla network was always a longer term project that will likely need robotic driving.

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207948

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 4:19 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Perhaps in the by and by there will be another IPO, spinning off the Tesla Network, but will need more cars first. The development of the Tesla network was always a longer term project that will likely need robotic driving.

Regards,


It will definitely need self driving as the entire point of Tesla network was that your car could be off earning you money while you weren't using it, a sort of private car version of the L4 robo-taxis being trialled in the wild by Waymo and Aptiv.

Given the absence of a license for Tesla to trial L4 anywhere, the idea that they are about to spin off a robo-taxi division with no robo-taxis seems a little unlikely. Although if they pitch to Chris Grayling who knows?

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207966

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 5:27 pm

Tesla has benefited from some pretty significant government subsidies up to now. And their US and Norwegian customers have been heavily subsidised.

The article below describes some of the other US, Californian and other grants which have historically helped Tesla's margins.

Most of these are reducing or coming to an end. And significantly in Europe and China subsidies are now more applicable to competitors offering cheaper cars.

More pressure on Tesla's future margins?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/424909 ... -tide?dr=1

regards

Howard

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#207969

Postby BobbyD » March 15th, 2019, 5:31 pm

Howard wrote:Tesla has benefited from some pretty significant government subsidies up to now.


Not to mention a massive government loan.

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208006

Postby Howard » March 15th, 2019, 7:56 pm

Moody's rates Tesla debt B3, putting it in the junk category.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... 2019-03-15

"Tesla is challenged internally by ongoing operational missteps and strategy reversals over a short time period," the credit ratings agency said in a note Friday.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208036

Postby Howard » March 16th, 2019, 12:01 am

The launch of the Model Y was a slightly surreal event. I've just watched it on YouTube.

Having read that the actual launch of the new model took place only in the last few minutes of the event (and in virtual darkness), I knew that it was mainly a review of Tesla's progress since it started.

It was almost as though Elon Musk was saying goodbye at the end. He said something like "Thank you for coming, thank you for all your support over the years, it's been a hell of a ride".

Just made me wonder if he was moving on to a new role??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poTxDqms_nQ

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208037

Postby odysseus2000 » March 16th, 2019, 12:18 am

Another estimate of Tesla sales in Europe:

https://insideevs.com/february-2019-tes ... ne-europe/

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208075

Postby odysseus2000 » March 16th, 2019, 1:08 pm

90% of electric owners won't return to gas:

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-owne ... et_3859001

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208077

Postby BobbyD » March 16th, 2019, 1:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:90% of electric owners won't return to gas:

https://insideevs.com/electric-car-owne ... et_3859001

Regards,


Not the highest quality study, and a headline which claims 90% and a first line which claims 88% is sloppy, although I don't doubt that a lot of e-drivers will remain battery powered.

onthemove
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208157

Postby onthemove » March 17th, 2019, 10:29 am



Interesting article. This bit also stood out to me...

Worse still for Tesla is the growing number of experts calling out its approach to autonomy as fundamentally flawed due to a lack of LIDAR. As we have discussed previously, regulations will almost certainly mandate the use of LIDAR in the event of the legalization of autonomous vehicles. Tesla, which has eschewed that technology, could well find its technology made wholly obsolete before it even has a viable product.


I'd fully agree with that. I cannot see any regulator allowing self driving cars with cameras only. Even though in theory, computer vision (deep learning CNNs) can outperform humans at recognition tasks - and that's what's needed to identify roads, signs, people, cyclists, other vehicles and so on - I believe there is an expectation from the general public that autonomous cars will be a step up in safety compared to human drivers.

And certainly while the technology is still finding its feet, it seems pretty much a given that regulators are going to demand the kind of backup / redundancy from lidar, etc, complementing vision, particularly when such technologies already exist, are not massively expensive and have been proven to add value by others.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe of the few fatalities so far in cars with either auto pilot, or fully autonomous, all were cars which didn't have lidar (or similar) to backup their cameras.

Lidar can't identify what an object is - that's why cameras with deep learning CNNs are the primary 'engine' of autonomous driving, but lidar can tell you if you are on course to hit a solid (but unidentified) object that the cameras didn't spot. Either a pedestrian walking their bike across the highway, or a lorry in an adjacent lane you're about to pull into, or a safety barrier you're about to collide with, etc.

With the cost of lidar so relatively cheap, and the clear additional safety benefits it provides, I wouldn't want to be sharing the road with autonomous cars that didn't have it. And with all the fear of the unknown / suspicion around self driving cars, I think the regulators are going to take a similar view.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208159

Postby tjh290633 » March 17th, 2019, 10:31 am

Don't aircraft require triple redundancy for automated systems?

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208162

Postby dspp » March 17th, 2019, 10:38 am

tjh290633 wrote:Don't aircraft require triple redundancy for automated systems?

TJH


No.

It depends what the basis of the certification is/was. For example the Boeing 737 has, at best, dual redundancy in many areas. The likely design flaw (tbd) that has caused all the 737-MAX (which is basically the third revision of the 737 design) is arguably only single redundant in the MCAS system (tbd), or at best dual redundant. The rudder failures in early 737 were if I recall correctly single redundant as well, but that got improved.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/619 ... frica.html

In contrast the Airbus tend to be triple redundant as a minimum on primary systems, but one does need to read the smallprint.

I think the jury is still out on the necessity (or not) of Lidar in automated driving systems. Logic suggests it is not vital but practicalities may make it the most cost-effective pathway. Lidar certainly is not cheap at present. The combination of radar + wide-spectrum cameras, plus (slow) ultrasonics is better than us mere pink jobs have as sensors.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208177

Postby odysseus2000 » March 17th, 2019, 12:05 pm

For those interested this is an account of some of the differences between Boeing & Airbus systems:

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d4ac/1 ... 7117a9.pdf

It will be hugely indicative of future AI if non Lidar systems can not work better than humans. In the UK humans kill or seriously injure about 10 people per day with cars, massively more than airplane accidents & so the prize for anyone who can make a low cost non Lidar system is colossal.

If non Lidar systems can not be made to work it will be a huge tell for the future of AI & will likely send off the advent of mass robotic driving long into the future as Lidar systems at wavelengths that do not damage human eyes are expensive & if one needs Lidar one presumably needs redundant Lidar. It is not clear to me that Lidar systems as used by some robotic cars can be made low cost in mass production, but happy to be corrected if this is wrong.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#208185

Postby dspp » March 17th, 2019, 12:38 pm

o2000,

That article describes the more recent Boeing designs, and all the Airbus designs. What it skips over is that the Boeing 737 series is completely different and is not FBW in the sense described in the article. In my opinion the 737 is a series of kludges laid one on the other that go way back to the heritage as the 707 and 727 - it is truly an ancient 1950s design. If you presented the 737 for 'new' certification today it would likely not get approved. This is an aside for Tesla purposes, but is important to understand if one is a Boeing investor. For a variety of reasons as SLF my preference is always A320 series over 737 given a choice.

A key difference between aircraft and automotive is that one can stop the car and get out. You can't do that in a plane. So the dgree of control system redundancy required could reasonably be different. I have not seen public domain info on how redundant the full Tesla FSD implementation is intending to be, but in HW3 there appear to be at least two fully independent processors/computers, and I think that there is dual camera coverage over the entire 360. There may be more than this but in principle it looks to me as if they have at least a dual redundant system in mind to be working towards*. In the event of fault conditions requiring reversion to human control the FSD implementation appears to be "stop in lane" in the event of an unresponsive human. But I think we are a long way from seeing level 4 or 5 demo'd in a Tesla. Anyway it is worth differentiating between AI for FSD and the sort of FBW used in Airbus/Beoing as they are not at all the same thing.

regards, dspp

* they may have quad in mind, there are some teases on the web.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#208193

Postby odysseus2000 » March 17th, 2019, 1:47 pm

Hi dspp,

Thank you, some very useful information.

Regards,


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