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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#214954

Postby BobbyD » April 14th, 2019, 11:24 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting, if this article is correct, that the VW id3 will initially be the high performance model first at Eur 30k with the base not for another year:


If the article is correct and VW are putting out a decent sized (golf dimensions outside, bigger inside), 340 mile range BEV built to VW standards for £26k I'd imagine they are going to be busy making them for sometime. The £21k 205 mile version which would kill in today's market would be somewhat undermined by its big brother at those prices, whilst still making a great first/second car option for an awful lot of people.

odysseus2000 wrote:If this is all correct it seems VW took from 2016 (announcement) to 2021 to have the base model available. Kind of slow for such a supposed skilled maker of cars.


Worth noting that the accuracy of the article has been questioned btl, along with a quote attributed to a VW engineer saying they are starting with the 62kWh and 48kWh packs and releasing the 83kWh version in 2021, which unfortunately is difficult to verify not least because it's in German.

It's also worth noting that VW have developed two BEV platforms in that time, extensively tested the ID3 pre-launch rather than using paying customers as beta testers and timed their entrance to market with an affordable equivalent of the best selling car in Europe just as BEV is seriously taking off in major markets. Rank amateurs...

Either way I've a good feeling about this. I'm beginning to think of it more as the BEV Beetle than the car Musk wanted the Model 3 to be although its not really an either or. Could mark a genuine turning point when it comes to BEV accessibility.

Nice to see a non-Tesla being talked about in such glowing terms btl as well...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#214979

Postby Howard » April 14th, 2019, 2:35 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Another comment from a Tesla customer about how noisy the model 3 is to drive. He makes an interesting comparison. It's more noisy than an e Golf!

As someone who has been lucky enough to purchase some nice, and immaculate, new cars in the past, I am surprised how relaxed he is about all the imperfections. And the amusing acceptance that a Tesla isn't a quality car like an Audi!! No way would I accept a new car in that condition. And road noise in an electric car would drive me mad! Especially after driving an amazingly quiet BMW 330e for two years.

"My "stuff":
- valve cap on front passenger side wheel missing
- wrong set of USB charging cables (Apple instead of micro USB). They told me I would have to buy the correct one - we'll see about that
- left trunk light not working (fixed by service person right there and then)
- green "eco" sticker (mandatory in Germany) missing, even though I had specifically asked for it
- a few paint imperfections, but overall acceptable.
Only a small white spot - i.e. looks like a tiny paint chip, too deep to buff out - above the driver door handle is a bit annoying, but ok, it isn't an Audi after all.

Speaking of which, it is amazing how noisy the car is, especially when compared to the e-Golf.
Those hard Hankook tires certainly are no match for Michelin or Continental ride quality. But since these will one day get replaced anyway, there is hope for improvement."



Ha Ha

This guy should be a barrister. Nice how he seems to praise Tesla while at the same time instilling in the jury's mind that German marques are better.

Regards,


He's just bought a Tesla and is realising that it has a lot of faults! He may also be a Barrister, as you need to be wealthy to buy a Model 3.

odysseus2000 wrote:It looks to me that the id3 will have to compete with Chinese & Korean models in this super mini market, not with the model 3 so much. According to a neighbour he was told the Korean electric car he wanted was not available for 12 months, so likely lots of replacement Golf like cars available for that section of the market next year. He used to be in the scrap car business & predicted that the market for ice cars will suddenly collapse, not a smooth decline, in the relatively near future. If it does, as I also think, legacy producers like VW will take significant hits. The only thing that I think could prevent this is lack of supply if electric cars. Interesting to watch with the bonus of much improved air quality & probably scorn & hate for diesel drivers like me.

Regards,


I'm sure your Scrap Car dealer neighbour is an expert on the world car market, but you and he have predicted the collapse of the ICE market for many years and it hasn't happened yet.

Your neighbour nicely sums up the reason why Tesla isn't likely to meet their sales forecasts. Have you told him that Tesla have 20,000 plus Model 3s in stock waiting for customers. Within a month or two they may have 10,000 rhd model 3s and discounted S and X models for him to choose from. Will he forget his Korean electric car and snap up a Tesla? I doubt it because Tesla aren't making sensible cars for the mass market.

You may be right about the demise of ICE vehicles eventually but who will be the manufacturers who succeed in making tens of millions of cars for the family market worldwide? At the moment the Model 3 may compare unfavourably with an e-Golf hatchback for the affluent family man. It sure won't cut the mustard with the average family buyer if the Golf or its EV replacement offers quieter and fault-free motoring for half the price of a Tesla.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215057

Postby odysseus2000 » April 14th, 2019, 9:16 pm

Howard
He's just bought a Tesla and is realising that it has a lot of faults! He may also be a Barrister, as you need to be wealthy to buy a Model 3.


I think you missed what I was saying: My comment was meant to suggest that the poster was putting Tesla down in a subtle way that a barrister would use.

I have no idea if this is true or if there are any folk being paid to spread FUD, but I would be very surprised if people were not being paid to do this.

My thesis for the demise of ice is when there is enough supply of BE. That is certainly not the case now, but in a few years it will be. I originally thought about 3 years over a year ago which would put large BE supply mid 2021.

If e.g. VW do have a winner on their hands it means a rapid switch over to BE with a loss of about 1/3 of the entire VW work force & fired workers might not want to buy a VW.

Also as far as I know Tesla have not made any right hand drive model 3, with production not expected till mid year at the soonest, probably later as Brexit is now imho out of control making Tesla unlikely to be keen to supply right hand drive here to a now politically unstable union. They do not seem so interested in Japan either.

It is imho way too early to know if the model 3 will be a success or fail & even earlier to make predictions about the VW. This is a new and dynamic market & things can change very quickly.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215136

Postby BobbyD » April 15th, 2019, 11:30 am

odysseus2000 wrote:If e.g. VW do have a winner on their hands it means a rapid switch over to BE with a loss of about 1/3 of the entire VW work force & fired workers might not want to buy a VW.


The existential threat to VW is that they might produce a winner so big and that they can produce so efficiently that they have to stop paying as many people to build them... I admire your tenacity Ody, but if that's supposed to be a problem for VW I think we might have to redefine 'problem'.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215143

Postby dspp » April 15th, 2019, 12:09 pm

Various stuff coming out to the effect that Panasonic's cell production is at about 23GWh, and that this is the practical Giga 1 constraint for tesla at present. I've seen analyses to this effect from various individuals on different forums, over the last few days, but this is a link to a subsequent comment by Musk saying much the same thing, to wit that model 3 is supply constrained, not demand constrained. If so that makes the Panasonic announcement that they will not invest in 2020 to move capacity UP above the current 35 GWh most odd. It is almost as if there is a definitions war going on in public regarding what 'production capacity' really means.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/14/tesla-gi ... elon-musk/

all most curiouser and curiouser.

Oh, and a more thoughtful than usual long view piece

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425435 ... app=1&dr=1

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215158

Postby dspp » April 15th, 2019, 12:54 pm

It seems Musk is baiting the SEC for all he can in the twittersphere. That will end badly at some point.

Anyway, here is my working hypothesis as I mull over the evidence:

early in Q1 order book was low
Tesla batch builds against predicted orders, and tunes batch sizes & marketing to match with sellers
you can do that if 90% of your market is in CONUS, but as soon as you start shipping to RoW in significant volume risk of stranded assets sitting in a foreign dock go way up
And so Tesla cut back on production rate to roughly match demand coming in
And in any case Tesla did not have spare working capital to keep plants running at max capacity building finished goods stock AND also stuffing the logistics pipeline
So in early quarter building at a car rate lower than the max capacity of Panasonic
Which worries the hell out of Panasonic who are facing a FID on expansion, and who are wondering what Maxwellisation might do to their product, and who need to make a factory move on the S/X cell against rapidly falling S/X model sales, and against a (soon-ish ?) S/X model refresh to the bigger cells.
Then late in quarter orders started rising
But when Tesla try to press accelerator they still have insufficient working capital, and they discover that the effective capacity of GF1 cells is constrained to below peak capacity
So Tesla end up throttled to ship less than orders over the whole quarterly cycle
And if they ran at a loss then (all = ) working capital went down still further
.....
They need to shift to a balanced quarter worldwide with all sales of all models roughly equal in all months in all markets as otherwise they will have sub-optimal logistics & sales channels in all of the world, i.e. people standing idle for 2m and maxed out for 1m
They need the working capital to build into stock, most especially at cell level, maybe also at pack level (and if spray shop is still a limiting constraint, then also at finished car level). That's a lot of MORE capital and MORE risk.
And at some point they need either MORE capital and/or LOWER margins to build out the lease option.
Oh, and MORE capital to build out charger and service network some more
.....
Staying viable long enough for China factory to come onstream (sometime in 2020) is going to be like deja vu all over again

No wonder Musk is having a twitter meltdown

Interesting.

- dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215160

Postby BobbyD » April 15th, 2019, 1:01 pm

dspp wrote:Various stuff coming out to the effect that Panasonic's cell production is at about 23GWh, and that this is the practical Giga 1 constraint for tesla at present. I've seen analyses to this effect from various individuals on different forums, over the last few days, but this is a link to a subsequent comment by Musk saying much the same thing, to wit that model 3 is supply constrained, not demand constrained. If so that makes the Panasonic announcement that they will not invest in 2020 to move capacity UP above the current 35 GWh most odd. It is almost as if there is a definitions war going on in public regarding what 'production capacity' really means.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/14/tesla-gi ... elon-musk/

all most curiouser and curiouser.

Oh, and a more thoughtful than usual long view piece

https://seekingalpha.com/article/425435 ... app=1&dr=1

- dspp


Has that 35GWh figure which an awful lot of people seem to have taken as gospel previously been used on any official channel, like for instance Musk's twitter feed? That would be a 45% misstatement if it has.

If Model 3 is supply constrained why did it produce 14,000 more model 3's than it delivered, and why is it looking to dilute sales with leasing?

Meanwhile down on the farm:

Musk Tweets Another Tesla Forecast in Midst of Talks With SEC


Elon Musk

@elonmusk
Replying to @KnightmarArchon and 2 others
Very much so. There are 2.5B cars & trucks on Earth. Even replacing 1% of that fleet would require making 25M vehicles per year. Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -next-year

Tesla are on target to make under 400,000 cars this calendar year, are apparently supply constrained, and will deliver 500,000 cars in the next 12 months... tweeted whilst in talks with the SEC about breaches of an agreement regarding his tweets not being properly verified bought about by a spurious prediction of Tesla's production

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215161

Postby PeterGray » April 15th, 2019, 1:07 pm

Various stuff coming out to the effect that Panasonic's cell production is at about 23GWh, and that this is the practical Giga 1 constraint for tesla at present.

You are perhaps right, dspp, but what I've seen, which may be much more limited that what you have has Pana saying they are constrained by demand from Tesla and Musk saying Tesla are constrained by Pana.

Perhaps the truth lies in between, but given Musk's relationship to proper reporting, I can't see how anyone could seriously choose Musk's version over Pana's without additional evidence. If, of course, it turns out he's right, perhaps he might learn the lesson that undermining his reputation for accuracy in the interests of short term attention grabbing will bite you back in the end. You never know - pigs may fly.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215169

Postby BobbyD » April 15th, 2019, 1:35 pm

Oh, and whilst Tesla can't produce/sell anough electric cars China might have produced too many EV companies...

The $18 Billion Electric-Car Bubble at Risk of Bursting in China

...There are now 486 EV manufacturers registered in China, more than triple the number from two years ago. While sales of passenger EVs are projected to reach a record 1.6 million units this year, that’s likely not enough to keep all those assembly lines humming, prompting warnings that the ballooning EV market could burst and leave behind only a few survivors.


- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... g-in-china

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215173

Postby odysseus2000 » April 15th, 2019, 1:46 pm

BobbyD

The existential threat to VW is that they might produce a winner so big and that they can produce so efficiently that they have to stop paying as many people to build them... I admire your tenacity Ody, but if that's supposed to be a problem for VW I think we might have to redefine 'problem'.


Paying redundancy to 1/3 of the work force would hurt VW.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215174

Postby BobbyD » April 15th, 2019, 1:49 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD

The existential threat to VW is that they might produce a winner so big and that they can produce so efficiently that they have to stop paying as many people to build them... I admire your tenacity Ody, but if that's supposed to be a problem for VW I think we might have to redefine 'problem'.


Paying redundancy to 1/3 of the work force would hurt VW.

Regards,


Not as much as not having to pay them would help VW!

More production, lower cost... Tragedy.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215182

Postby odysseus2000 » April 15th, 2019, 2:10 pm

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD

The existential threat to VW is that they might produce a winner so big and that they can produce so efficiently that they have to stop paying as many people to build them... I admire your tenacity Ody, but if that's supposed to be a problem for VW I think we might have to redefine 'problem'.


Paying redundancy to 1/3 of the work force would hurt VW.

Regards,


Not as much as not having to pay them would help VW!

More production, lower cost... Tragedy.


You wish, the effect on VW of that sort of hit to them combined with increased competition, labour troubles, large capex, ... etc would be difficult for them.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215199

Postby PeterGray » April 15th, 2019, 3:22 pm

Ody,

There may be something in some of those points, but your really should recognise that any issue for VW, and other big auto is always seen by you as a major problem, whereas any issues that relate to Tesla are either false or evidence of imminent world domination. I can't see that as a sound basis for investment.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215226

Postby odysseus2000 » April 15th, 2019, 4:42 pm

PeterGray wrote:Ody,

There may be something in some of those points, but your really should recognise that any issue for VW, and other big auto is always seen by you as a major problem, whereas any issues that relate to Tesla are either false or evidence of imminent world domination. I can't see that as a sound basis for investment.


Historically incumbents are murdered by secular change.

Almost everyone always believes that Goliath will beat David, but in practice David has a good run rate when their is serious secular change & a business model becomes untenable.

Most of the arguments supporting legacy auto revolve around the belief that they are too big to fail. Historically this has rarely been the case. It is especially a dodgy idea when incumbents in autos have a regular habit of being broken by cyclical business change, witness most US auto, all of the combined British Leyland business.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215265

Postby dspp » April 15th, 2019, 8:27 pm

@BD,
- about 10k of the 14k undelivered would be approx what one would expect to be in the RoW shipping system. Not sure about the rest.

- the 35GWh matches c.380k cars + storage when I put calcs on here last week, so 23GWh is going to be eyewateringly poor if so, but see answer to PG as well (but if there is 14k built into stock/shipping that helps fewer tears)

- the 500k is a 12m forwards number so apples != oranges (but please don't ask me to be a Musk twotter apologist)

- ask H over leasing. Looks like a typical demand smoothing tool to me, just as with rental fleets. Aim is to max factory capacity utilisation, within sane limits.


@PG,
- see https://seekingalpha.com/article/425420 ... fitability where TokyoPicker has a fair synopsis of things. Some of the commentary in the thread below is also helpful but most is the usual noise.

- My take on it is that if Panasonic build only to whatever is Tesla's daily production schedule then, even if they had a 24x365 technical capacity of 35GWh then the actual delivered capacity at quarter end would be inevitably lower. Maybe 23GWh. And if Tesla order (say) 50GWh on any given day Panasonic would just look at it and say "max is 35, please reorder". So unless Tesla are prepared to build cell stock (and pay for it !!) then actual real world capacity will be lower. That's before getting into anything 'technical'.

- I also think Tesla tried to use it as a price renegotiation and got their bluff called by Panasonc. And if you see the link it seems Panasonic have tied their other 5 (?) factories to Toyota (which implies, by the way, that Toyota will soon be ditching the hybrid pathway as a deadend) and that is very typical alliancing by Japanese companies.

- And Panasonic and Trsla are both rightly gaming over the Shanghai factory.

- Overall I think both are right, but that Tesla are righter. All the news here needs to be read with close attention to detail and context.

- I couldn't run a company with the senior staff turnover that Musk inflicts on himself (and ! shareholders !)

please excuse brevity, am in airport (sorry, no longer in airport, this should have gone out 6h ago)
dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215273

Postby BobbyD » April 15th, 2019, 9:12 pm

dspp wrote:@BD,
- about 10k of the 14k undelivered would be approx what one would expect to be in the RoW shipping system. Not sure about the rest.

- the 35GWh matches c.380k cars + storage when I put calcs on here last week, so 23GWh is going to be eyewateringly poor if so, but see answer to PG as well (but if there is 14k built into stock/shipping that helps fewer tears)

- the 500k is a 12m forwards number so apples != oranges (but please don't ask me to be a Musk twotter apologist)

- ask H over leasing. Looks like a typical demand smoothing tool to me, just as with rental fleets. Aim is to max factory capacity utilisation, within sane limits.


If Tesla is supply constrained it seems like an odd time to choose to develop a pool of model 3's, to open up new international delivery chains which have to be stuffed full of cars which could be delivered locally, and to start leasing cars which they could sell outright for large chunks of cash.

If they have customers queuing up to suck their cars out of their factory there would be no demand slump to smooth.

Taking today as the first day of the next 12 months they are already well behind the 500,000 car pacemaker...tomorrow they will be further behind, come Wednesday... Assuming Musk is also right that Tesla production is constrained by Panasonic supply unless some Panasonic engineer wakes up in the next couple of months with a 2000W bulb burning over his head pops out of bed shouting, "Eureka," runs down to the factory in his pyjamas and turns the little red knob on the Pana line from normal to fast this estimate does not look credible, which given he is currently in discussions with the SEC about his Twitter use...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215325

Postby TUK020 » April 16th, 2019, 8:08 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Historically incumbents are murdered by secular change.



Incumbents usually ride out technology changes. It is where the technology enables new classes of customer, new distribution channels, new usage models, that they get into trouble. i.e. the technology becomes disruptive to the business model.

20 years ago, the company with the leading digital camera technology was Kodak.
It wasn't the shift to digital that killed them. It was the fact that people stopped printing their pictures, but taking them and sending them by phone.

VW will ride the change to BEV.
What happens on Autonomous Driving is anyone's bet

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215339

Postby redsturgeon » April 16th, 2019, 9:00 am

TUK020 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Historically incumbents are murdered by secular change.



Incumbents usually ride out technology changes. It is where the technology enables new classes of customer, new distribution channels, new usage models, that they get into trouble. i.e. the technology becomes disruptive to the business model.

20 years ago, the company with the leading digital camera technology was Kodak.
It wasn't the shift to digital that killed them. It was the fact that people stopped printing their pictures, but taking them and sending them by phone.

VW will ride the change to BEV.
What happens on Autonomous Driving is anyone's bet


I agree with these sentiments. As a photographer I have a bit of insight into the digital revolution. Nikon and Canon were always major players at the high end of the analogue camera world, along with the likes of Leica and Hasselblad at the extreme pro end. These companies still thrive in the digital age. What has really changed is the advent of camera technology in smart phones. Now there is no need for the average snapper to own a stand alone camera and it is just the serious hobbyists and pros that need or want stand alone digital cameras.

The corollary from this is that the best legacy ICE manufacturers will survive, eg. the likes of VW, Toyota, Ford while some of the smaller less efficient manufacturers will struggle with the change. At the sporty end the likes of Ferrari, Porsche Lamborghini etc will live on and Bentleys and Rollers will still have their place.

As you say, once autonomous driving appears then all bets are off, there may remain a niche for very high end ICE vehicles, as long as regulators allow them on the roads, but the obvious shape of an everyday autonomous "taxi" vehicle does not look much like a Tesla. Think more of a "white goods" type of form factor that is built for maximum space, practicality, robustness, reliability and safety, a "pod' more than a sports car.

John

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215349

Postby tjh290633 » April 16th, 2019, 9:30 am

I had a ride in one of the new battery electric London taxis the other day. Very impressive with six seats in the back. Now that is what I call a sensible application. I can't see autonomous operation managing a U-turn in a busy London street.

TJH

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Re: Musk endeavours

#215357

Postby Howard » April 16th, 2019, 10:24 am

tjh290633 wrote:I had a ride in one of the new battery electric London taxis the other day. Very impressive with six seats in the back. Now that is what I call a sensible application. I can't see autonomous operation managing a U-turn in a busy London street.

TJH


Mrs H and I rode in a Chinese-made smooth and spacious battery electric London Taxi three or four years ago. The driver told us it was charged during his lunch break and again in the evening.

It seemed the ideal vehicle to reduce pollution and we couldn't see how it (and vehicles like it) wouldn't be welcomed by Londoners. However, the slow take-up of EVs for this purpose shows that the switch to electric power isn't that easy. The problem is that it isn't possible, even in London, to provide the necessary charging network for taxis, let alone all cars and buses.

Addison Lee announced an order for 1,200 VW vehicles in January. The first batch are diesels!! Very low emissions apparently. A L would like to convert to Hybrids or full EVs but to quote their spokeswoman: “We are keen to move quickly to an electric fleet for the benefit of London’s environment, but are limited by London’s charging network, which as the report by Dr. Rebecca Driver demonstrated, cannot support a shift to electric by the capital’s private hire and taxi industry.”

So Ody's dream of a sudden, fast switch to BEVs across the world with Tesla overwhelming the German and Chinese manufacturers doesn't look a likely scenario. There is a wall of money ready to invest in serious players who can help cities like London solve this problem. Ludicrous acceleration is not what is needed nor spats with battery providers nor wild claims about autonomous cars. Cities need practical modest and reliable cars which we can all trust. Addison Lee obviously think VW (with all their problems!) are a serious player, but there are many others.

regards

Howard

Link to Addison Lee order is http://www.addisonlee.com/addlib/addiso ... et-london/


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