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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268257

Postby BobbyD » November 30th, 2019, 12:27 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:There is fantasy which is the current VW approach that they can carry on as is and there is reality that BEV will cause lots of job losses in legacy auto. The Japanese motor makers have decided to get ahead of the curve and have the job losses away from Japan, i.e. in UK.


Yeah, it's a pity that a company's market share is so rigidly defined in law otherwise anybody with confidence in their product, their manufacturing capability and their knowledge of how to sell cars might see a real opportunity.

Jobs will be created and destroyed, but anybody who is shedding manufacturing capacity in an attempt to hibernate through the transition is putting themselves in a very weak spot.

The plant closures all occurred after the referendum. All the companies who closed plants warned that a vote to Leave would severely undermine their ability to maintain a presence in the UK as politely as they could whilst trying not to be seen to be getting involved in UK politics. They went as fart as holding meetings with the government and warning their staff of the consequences of a Leave victory. They manufacture their cars from parts imported from the EU using a JIT production method, and then export the cars for sale in the EU, and you are seriously suggesting that raising non-tarrif barriers in to their supply chain and the very real risk of export tariffs on exports of the finished product were incidental to the spree of plant closures and the complete absence of investment following the vote to Leave...?

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268259

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 12:43 pm

Norwegian justice minister orders cyber:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertr ... -minister/

Regards,

PeterGray
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268262

Postby PeterGray » November 30th, 2019, 12:49 pm

There is fantasy which is the current VW approach that they can carry on as is

I see no evidence of this! VW are currently moving to BEV, and have announced plans for a pretty much complete change over, with from the ground up redesign. Why you interpret that as "carrying on as is", or implying that companies like VW are incapable of the change over is beyond me.

True there is a lot of volatility ahead for car manufactures as the changes happen, and it may well prove that current HC replacement technology, battery and electric, doesn't even end up being the final solution - it may even be that private cars become far less important a market. But it's far from clear that someone like VW won't come through that on top, or that a Tesla will.

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268263

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 12:51 pm

BobbyD
Yeah, it's a pity that a company's market share is so rigidly defined in law otherwise anybody with confidence in their product, their manufacturing capability and their knowledge of how to sell cars might see a real opportunity.

Jobs will be created and destroyed, but anybody who is shedding manufacturing capacity in an attempt to hibernate through the transition is putting themselves in a very weak spot.

The plant closures all occurred after the referendum. All the companies who closed plants warned that a vote to Leave would severely undermine their ability to maintain a presence in the UK as politely as they could whilst trying not to be seen to be getting involved in UK politics. They went as fart as holding meetings with the government and warning their staff of the consequences of a Leave victory. They manufacture their cars from parts imported from the EU using a JIT production method, and then export the cars for sale in the EU, and you are seriously suggesting that raising non-tarrif barriers in to their supply chain and the very real risk of export tariffs on exports of the finished product were incidental to the spree of plant closures and the complete absence of investment following the vote to Leave...?


This is all opinion trying to justify things based on a prejudice.

I have spent a lot of my leisure time working on cars and studying the industry.

Job creation from BEV looks highly negative to me and that is before, what imho is now inevitable, robotic driving.

IMHO the whole legacy automotive industry is about to contract and have very large numbers of job losses.

Yes, VW may have it right, but it is not certain and imho it is highly more probable that Japanese motors have it right.

We will see.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268264

Postby Howard » November 30th, 2019, 12:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:I continue to believe that cuts in German auto employment will lead to some very ugly situations for the auto makers & that there will be similar troubles in other car making countries like Italy & France. Japanese motors saw this coming & cut their UK factories.

It will be interesting to see if German Labour turns on Tesla Berlin & causes trouble for them.

China & Korea battery makers ought to do well as the scramble for batteries becomes a panic.

Imho the potential for existing legacy auto to make serious errors here is very large.

I still expect BMW to fail and/or be taken over or get government emergency money as their balance sheet looks too weak to me.

Tesla with its growing battery capability ought to do well, but I am nervous about how German labour will react to Tesla Berlin.

Regards,


I've always been amused by your and other's dire forecasts for major car manufacturers. And when actual facts are recorded here, if they are not positive for BEVs they are decried as FUD.

Like the stopped clock, Ody, your forecasts of doom for all ICE manufacturers over the last 10 years or so may eventually prove partly right. But it is equally likely that Tesla may yet again run out of cash. What do you think about their balance sheet? The fact is that their current models are struggling to achieve even a minor market share in virtually every country except the USA and they now have more vapourware models, like the truck, the semi, the model Y, the roadster than real models for sale.

We'll soon know how they are selling in China. But sales are dropping in promising markets of the past like Norway and other European countries (except the Netherlands where they are supported by huge subsidies which finish soon). The reality is that in most export markets they are just selling a few hundred cars a month. Their UK sales figures for November will be interesting - do you think they have a sustainable presence here or will the model 3 volumes continue to drop?

Yes, car manufacturers across the world are grappling with huge changes, but Tesla car sales are less than a rounding error in most markets and the volume sales of BEV models are yet to happen. Who knows the future, but they may need a lot more support from shareholders to be more than an interesting minor player.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268266

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 12:58 pm

PeterGray wrote:There is fantasy which is the current VW approach that they can carry on as is

I see no evidence of this! VW are currently moving to BEV, and have announced plans for a pretty much complete change over, with from the ground up redesign. Why you interpret that as "carrying on as is", or implying that companies like VW are incapable of the change over is beyond me.

True there is a lot of volatility ahead for car manufactures as the changes happen, and it may well prove that current HC replacement technology, battery and electric, doesn't even end up being the final solution - it may even be that private cars become far less important a market. But it's far from clear that someone like VW won't come through that on top, or that a Tesla will.


Yes, there is a lot of volatility ahead. It is very unlikely to be a smooth transitions and if the market for cars contracts through sharing or robotic driving then legacy auto which exists to mass manufacture what won't be needed, is doomed as where horse equipment and carriage makers when horseless carriage emerged.

The transition now will imho be the biggest secular change in an industry the world has ever seen. One can get some glimpse of it by looking at secular changes before: End of UK cotton rag trade thanks to Ghandi, End of UK Coal mining, End of UK volume car making. The current trajectory imho is hugely bigger than all of these and a world wide phenomenon.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268268

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 1:02 pm

I've always been amused by your and other's dire forecasts for major car manufacturers. And when actual facts are recorded here, if they are not positive for BEVs they are decried as FUD.

Like the stopped clock, Ody, your forecasts of doom for all ICE manufacturers over the last 10 years or so may eventually prove partly right. But it is equally likely that Tesla may yet again run out of cash. What do you think about their balance sheet? The fact is that their current models are struggling to achieve even a minor market share in virtually every country except the USA and they now have more vapourware models, like the truck, the semi, the model Y, the roadster than real models for sale.

We'll soon know how they are selling in China. But sales are dropping in promising markets of the past like Norway and other European countries (except the Netherlands where they are supported by huge subsidies which finish soon). The reality is that in most export markets they are just selling a few hundred cars a month. Their UK sales figures for November will be interesting - do you think they have a sustainable presence here or will the model 3 volumes continue to drop?

Yes, car manufacturers across the world are grappling with huge changes, but Tesla car sales are less than a rounding error in most markets and the volume sales of BEV models are yet to happen. Who knows the future, but they may need a lot more support from shareholders to be more than an interesting minor player.

regards

Howard


It is all happening as I expected.

It is good of you to keep pointing out facts as they now are, but it is the trajectory that interests me and that at least for now, is for what I have been predicting.

We shall see.

Regards,

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268294

Postby BobbyD » November 30th, 2019, 5:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
Yeah, it's a pity that a company's market share is so rigidly defined in law otherwise anybody with confidence in their product, their manufacturing capability and their knowledge of how to sell cars might see a real opportunity.

Jobs will be created and destroyed, but anybody who is shedding manufacturing capacity in an attempt to hibernate through the transition is putting themselves in a very weak spot.

The plant closures all occurred after the referendum. All the companies who closed plants warned that a vote to Leave would severely undermine their ability to maintain a presence in the UK as politely as they could whilst trying not to be seen to be getting involved in UK politics. They went as fart as holding meetings with the government and warning their staff of the consequences of a Leave victory. They manufacture their cars from parts imported from the EU using a JIT production method, and then export the cars for sale in the EU, and you are seriously suggesting that raising non-tarrif barriers in to their supply chain and the very real risk of export tariffs on exports of the finished product were incidental to the spree of plant closures and the complete absence of investment following the vote to Leave...?


This is all opinion trying to justify things based on a prejudice.


Actually it's a list of facts and a question.

Given your familiarity with posts attempting to justify opinions based on prejudice I'd have expected you to be more adept at spotting the difference.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268302

Postby Howard » November 30th, 2019, 6:29 pm

This article adds a few more facts to our discussion.

It makes the point that Ford's and other competitor's pickup trucks are incredibly versatile. Their total market volume potential includes selling a bare chassis to specialist converters who convert them into ambulances, FedEx trucks, shuttle buses, school buses, high-reach platform trucks etc. All with single or double cabs.

Tesla's design limits it to a six seater pickup with a potential market of maybe half or a third of a versatile Ford type truck.

I'm surprised you engineers haven't picked that limitation up :lol: .

If it gets built, it will appeal to a leisure user and perhaps a limited professional market. But will it miss out on the wider market potential?

regards

Howard

https://seekingalpha.com/article/430982 ... king_alpha

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268308

Postby odysseus2000 » November 30th, 2019, 6:52 pm

Howard
Tesla's design limits it to a six seater pickup with a potential market of maybe half or a third of a versatile Ford type truck.


If this is so, that is still a huge market.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268311

Postby redsturgeon » November 30th, 2019, 7:25 pm

High on my list of must haves is neither bullet proof glass or exterior stainless steel panels (if ever there was a misnomer it was "stainless steel" as anyone who has stainless steel appliances in their kitchen will attest)

John

BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268339

Postby BobbyD » December 1st, 2019, 4:17 am

redsturgeon wrote:High on my list of must haves is neither bullet proof glass or exterior stainless steel panels (if ever there was a misnomer it was "stainless steel" as anyone who has stainless steel appliances in their kitchen will attest)


For a value of bulletproof which equals uncertified resistance to some species of 9mm ammunition, if the claim is true and they haven't thrown a couple of ball bearings at you first...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268342

Postby Wuffle » December 1st, 2019, 8:13 am

Tesla muddled through for 10 years selling novelties to inquisitive rich people. They were the only ones in the space and so attracted all of the price insensitive customers. Volkswagen's posh, sporty brand has just taken a chunk of the wealthy customer base away and the leisure customer is a retreat towards other price insensitive customers. It is the smart move in some respects but it reflects market pressure in the conventional car space, which is only just beginning.
I would be most interested in staff flow, the high grade auto engineers must have been poached from the existing industry by Tesla to get going from a standing start but where have they been migrating since?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268577

Postby Howard » December 2nd, 2019, 5:24 pm

Research by an organisation which helps US consumers find the best financial products has looked at the costs of insuring Teslas in the USA and compared Tesla’s insurance with other major insurers.

It’s a detailed survey - see link below - and some of its conclusions are as follows:

"The average cost of car insurance for a Tesla is $4,352 per year, based on our research."

"We compared the rates of Tesla's new insurance policy with rates from other top insurance companies in California, and found that their rates were below average statewide, but not the cheapest overall."

Geico offered less expensive quotes than Tesla.

"Teslas are particularly expensive to insure for collision damage due to their high repair and maintenance costs, which are greater than those for other luxury vehicles. This is due to several reasons, such as:

The cars are repaired at a limited set of Tesla-approved body repair shops.

The training and equipment to become qualified means significant costs are incurred.

Electric cars are already more expensive to repair, and therefore insure, on average.

The Model S aluminum frame is more expensive and difficult to repair than a steel frame."


My conclusion is that you have to be wealthy to insure a Tesla in the USA. ;)

It will be interesting to see how UK insurers price cover once they have experience of the apparent high costs of repairs.

regards

Howard

https://www.valuepenguin.com/tesla-car-insurance

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268648

Postby odysseus2000 » December 2nd, 2019, 10:04 pm

One defect with the insurance survey is that it does not provide comparison insurance costs to other similar priced vehicles.

It would have been nice if they had included that, particularly if they had include other BEV, so as to give us an idea of the Tesla premium, whether it be + or - compared to other makes.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268672

Postby Howard » December 3rd, 2019, 12:49 am

odysseus2000 wrote:One defect with the insurance survey is that it does not provide comparison insurance costs to other similar priced vehicles.

It would have been nice if they had included that, particularly if they had include other BEV, so as to give us an idea of the Tesla premium, whether it be + or - compared to other makes.

Regards,


The link below doesn’t answer your question fully. However it does explain why it is more expensive to insure a BEV than the ICE equivalent in the USA. One of the main reasons given is that BEV variants are more expensive to buy and manufacture. The research suggests that this difference should decrease as more consumers buy BEVs and the costs come down.

How Having an Electric Car Affects Your Auto Insurance Rates - https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-having ... ance-rates

This organisation has a lot of information about insurance costs and there may be some information which is more relevant to your question, but I couldn’t find it from a quick look.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268704

Postby odysseus2000 » December 3rd, 2019, 9:03 am

Advantage of Cyber over F350:

https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tes ... ssion=true

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JamesMuenchen
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Re: Musk endeavours

#268708

Postby JamesMuenchen » December 3rd, 2019, 9:15 am

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Japanese motors saw this coming & cut their UK factories.


Japanese companies shut their UK plants because their workers voted to put up barriers between their European suppliers and their UK factories and between their UK factories and their European markets.

So why did they shut their Turkish factories at the same time?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268712

Postby Howard » December 3rd, 2019, 9:18 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Advantage of Cyber over F350:

https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tes ... ssion=true

Regards,


These stunts are fun. When will Tesla demonstrate that a Cybertruck is as rugged as a Toyota Hilux. Can it survive a drop from a 23 storey building?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFnVZXQD5_k

;)

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#268728

Postby odysseus2000 » December 3rd, 2019, 9:47 am

Interesting comparisons of BEV to ICE insurance.

The extra electric premium on the quoted insurance rates would soon be saved via the reduced fuel costs, especially if home fuelled via solar.

Regards,


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