Let's remember that COVID-19 was only declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on March 11th of this year.
That's just 29 weeks ago...
Given this, I fail to see how the phrase 'limited progress' can be justified when set against the above global vaccine programmes that have been stood up in such a short space of time, and if you want to go further and use the phrase when discussing potential macro investment influence, then we must be very near to the point where, with a fair wind, some ground-breaking news developments can't be too far away in this area given the trial bow-wave building up in the above chart....
I sincerely hope so, but until some thing is demonstrated to work with acceptable side effects I remain unconvinced.
I do hope that the many earlier claims that fell apart, will not be a recurring theme for these later trials.
My experience of biotech companies is that the sales and marketing folks optimism exceeds what the scientists on the front line deliver by a lot. Such folk may not make the wild optimistic claims of the politicians, but they are nevertheless in the business of getting stock prices up and the way they do that is by implying that success is almost upon us.
If any of these approaches gets anywhere we will see a re-rating of a whole lot of equities that would be immediate beneficiaries, but from my looking at price charts there is no sign of that at all.
Optimists will decide that science is close to a solution in record time, where as equity watchers like me and more importantly the big guys with big research departments will call it limited progress until we see something that works and then we will be out buying the equity of the wonder drug maker and all the other folk who will benefit.
Meanwhile investor and trader are focused on what is working for longs and that is stuff that assumes these difficult times will be with us for many more months. At the same time they are continuing to short business who will suffer in these hard times.
I hope I am completely wrong in my view as masks and all the restrictions are getting very old and worse the UK politicians are moving into dangerous territory using c19 as a rational for draconian measures with extortionate fines like the £10k ones they have recently announced, all without any parliamentary scrutiny.
There is now imho a serious political risk to UK equities based on what the government is doing and not doing, that is hurting the £ as were are rapidly approaching a time when the chancellor will have to extend payments to folk laid off through no fault of their own, or pay out a lot more in benefits as these folk lose their jobs.
Couple all of this with politicians operating under the veil of emergency legislation with no parliamentary over sight and it can get ugly fast.