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Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

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odysseus2000
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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#341862

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2020, 8:44 am

langley59
However no-one seems to have picked up on my point about the transformation from 'shareholder capitalism to stakeholder responsibility' statement on the World Economic Forum website in relation to the 2021 Great Reset. What could this do to shares as an asset class I wonder?


This reads like the words of a theoretical study of equity owners by someone who does not make their living from trading/investing.

People mostly buy and sell equites to make money. They are trading vehicles that go up and down. Very few people own companies and are stake holders in that sense, and are focused on long term holding and long term performance.

Even people who own business will sell them if they see a better opportunity for the liberated cash, either because they see more growth elsewhere or believe bad times are coming for their existing business.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#341864

Postby langley59 » September 22nd, 2020, 8:49 am

Sorry but I think you are missing the point, this is all about a new global economic model.

odysseus2000
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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#341867

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2020, 9:09 am

langley59 wrote:Sorry but I think you are missing the point, this is all about a new global economic model.


What is the evidence of a new global economic model?

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#341870

Postby langley59 » September 22nd, 2020, 9:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
langley59 wrote:Sorry but I think you are missing the point, this is all about a new global economic model.


What is the evidence of a new global economic model?

Regards,


I refer you to the World Economic Forum website I referenced previously. They openly talk about the Great Reset to be launched early next year. This appears to me to be an acceleration of the Agenda 21/2030 plan which has been in existence since 1992 and signed up to by most governments. These things are hidden in plain sight but are probably the most significant events which will affect us all economically and socially, they are not a conspiracy theory they are real. In short global government, sustainable development, control of the population, economic equalisation between rich and poor countries. In my opinion the reaction to covid by governments (see Event 201 which simulated such a pandemic before it happened) fits neatly within this overall plan.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#341878

Postby odysseus2000 » September 22nd, 2020, 10:09 am

langley59 wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
langley59 wrote:Sorry but I think you are missing the point, this is all about a new global economic model.

What is the evidence of a new global economic model?

Regards,

I refer you to the World Economic Forum website I referenced previously. They openly talk about the Great Reset to be launched early next year. This appears to me to be an acceleration of the Agenda 21/2030 plan which has been in existence since 1992 and signed up to by most governments. These things are hidden in plain sight but are probably the most significant events which will affect us all economically and socially, they are not a conspiracy theory they are real. In short global government, sustainable development, control of the population, economic equalisation between rich and poor countries. In my opinion the reaction to covid by governments (see Event 201 which simulated such a pandemic before it happened) fits neatly within this overall plan.


This is one school of political thought, often called the globalist agenda where there is a belief that the politicians can manage humans in the way that a farmer manages his/her animals.

Whether this can be made to work is a big open question. Previous examples of the Soviet Union, the Cultural revolution in China did not go well. These centrally planned systems rely on the politicians being able to run economies across time zones and cultural lines, but in practice the results have been terrible.

One can argue that the EU is another example of a centrally planned system and that this time it will work as there is far better information available to the politicians who have better understanding of the needs of their citizens. In the UK the current administrations is having great troubles dealing with the pandemic whereas the belief of the centrally planned advisors is that government has the resources and knowledge to do better than individuals.

It is possible that the advent of super intelligent AI systems can make all of these ideas work, but it seems unlikely to me, based on all the historical evidence, that anything which we have now is capable of doing what the globalist believe is possible.

As far as I can tell this new global economic model is an academic theory which looks great on paper and can be justified, but which will not work in practice as people, unlike a farmers stock, will rebel and force change if they do not like what is being done. If the centrally planned economies seizes enough power they can suppress rebellion, but crushing free enterprise leads to a declining economy as the folk who have the gifts to generate wealth are stopped from operating and one ends up with places like East Germany before the wall came down.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342121

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 8:46 am

Some thoughts on the investment opportunities available now.

Investment conditions
The investment background is poor with the increased restrictions, potential job losses and currently no increase in Covid relief from the chancellor and limited progress on a Covid vaccine.

Longs that have worked

However, there have been some strong investment opportunities:

Pandemic remote working tools: Zoom, Apple,...

Increased parcel traffic: Royal Mail, Fedex...

Anti-virus personel products: Soap etc, Pz Cussons...

Feel good personal wear: Nike ...

Potential short opportunities:

Banks. If more folk losing jobs and an end to Covid relief then bank loans, credit card debt, mortgages etc, are in danger of not being paid.

Legacy auto, less work, less commuting, new battery competitors

Airlines, cruise ships, hospitality (pubs, restaurants, hotels, holidays, airlines, coach, bus ...), although these are already in great trouble.

Potential news driven long opportunities:

Pharma, any business that can come up with some useful weapon against Covid 19. One could front run with plays like Gild, but if someone else gets something and they don't there will be potential losses and missed opportunity.

Do people have other suggestions?

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342189

Postby dealtn » September 23rd, 2020, 11:25 am

odysseus2000 wrote:Do people have other suggestions?



That you haven't just discovered this as the first person and that maybe it's already priced in?

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342218

Postby SalvorHardin » September 23rd, 2020, 12:30 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Do people have other suggestions?

Japanese smaller companies.

Most of the Japanese economy is highly inefficient when it comes to using paperwork and communications technology. Japan is not all high-tech gadgetry; for one thing it’s the biggest user of fax machines in the world and it uses them a lot. The coronavirus is driving the same changes in business operations and consumer preferences to those that we’re seeing in the Western World, but because of existing inefficiencies in the Japanese economy there is much more low-hanging fruit to be harvested.

“Japanese decry boomer-era tech as hospitals file coronavirus cases by fax”

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3082907/japan-hospitals-still-use-fax-machines-coronavirus

Japanese business loves to use "Hanko"; signature stamps which must be physically imprinted on paper, instead of e-signatures or other alternatives. This means that many Japanese employees have still to go to the office purely to stamp documents. Not a good idea in the time of coronavirus. It also means that complex decisions requiring the approval of several people can take weeks to get everyone's Hanko stamp on the documents, much slower than in the rest of the developed world.

A couple of weeks ago I saw a presentation on the JPMorgan Japanese Smaller Companies’ website (no longer on there). The manager was talking about how in Japan it is the smaller companies which are driving the push to adopt more internet communications, with the larger companies being more constrained by traditional ways of doing business. Its largest investment is in a company whose electronic Hanko stamp has something like 80% of the online market.

"According to a survey released by Adobe K.K. in March, more than 60 percent of respondents said they had to go to their offices to check documents and stamp hanko during the time they were asked to work from home."

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/30/national/hanko-seal-alternatives/

I haven’t a clue about individual companies, I’ve just bought funds.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342223

Postby Itsallaguess » September 23rd, 2020, 12:43 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
..and limited progress on a Covid vaccine.


Limited progress?

I think they've already worked miracles to get to where they are as quickly as they have done with regard to vaccines....

Sir Patrick Vallance was as upbeat as I've seen him regarding the up-coming results from the various Phase 3 trials currently underway, and there's a good possibility that within 6 months we might have at least a limited supply of deliverable vaccine with which to prioritise to key workers, and there's a small chance that we might get a much wider general distribution than that, and if we agree that markets are forward looking then that sort of really short time-scale doesn't seem to me as being correctly described as 'limited progress'....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342249

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 2:16 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
..and limited progress on a Covid vaccine.


Limited progress?

I think they've already worked miracles to get to where they are as quickly as they have done with regard to vaccines....

Sir Patrick Vallance was as upbeat as I've seen him regarding the up-coming results from the various Phase 3 trials currently underway, and there's a good possibility that within 6 months we might have at least a limited supply of deliverable vaccine with which to prioritise to key workers, and there's a small chance that we might get a much wider general distribution than that, and if we agree that markets are forward looking then that sort of really short time-scale doesn't seem to me as being correctly described as 'limited progress'....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


This article in the NYT describes vaccine progress:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... acker.html

One can make ones own appraisal of where we are in terms of vaccines.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342257

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 2:51 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Do people have other suggestions?



That you haven't just discovered this as the first person and that maybe it's already priced in?


Are you suggesting all of these sectors will not appreciate any more or that they are now at their zenith and are good short candidates?

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342259

Postby dealtn » September 23rd, 2020, 2:57 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Do people have other suggestions?



That you haven't just discovered this as the first person and that maybe it's already priced in?


Are you suggesting all of these sectors will not appreciate any more or that they are now at their zenith and are good short candidates?

Regards,


No. Just like at any other time some will rise, some will fall, some much more than others.

I don't think your "macro" list adds anything to the debate that can be considered new or insightful. The contribution from SalvorHardin below yours is the kind of new and insightful contribution that adds value here in my opinion.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342339

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 7:19 pm

dealtn
No. Just like at any other time some will rise, some will fall, some much more than others.

I don't think your "macro" list adds anything to the debate that can be considered new or insightful. The contribution from SalvorHardin below yours is the kind of new and insightful contribution that adds value here in my opinion.


I am quite happy to be the poster that leads to other posts that you consider add value.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342341

Postby Itsallaguess » September 23rd, 2020, 7:32 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
..and limited progress on a Covid vaccine.


Limited progress?

I think they've already worked miracles to get to where they are as quickly as they have done with regard to vaccines....

Sir Patrick Vallance was as upbeat as I've seen him regarding the up-coming results from the various Phase 3 trials currently underway, and there's a good possibility that within 6 months we might have at least a limited supply of deliverable vaccine with which to prioritise to key workers, and there's a small chance that we might get a much wider general distribution than that, and if we agree that markets are forward looking then that sort of really short time-scale doesn't seem to me as being correctly described as 'limited progress'....


This article in the NYT describes vaccine progress:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

One can make ones own appraisal of where we are in terms of vaccines.


And from that article comes the following graphic showing vaccine progress -

Image

Let's remember that COVID-19 was only declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on March 11th of this year.

That's just 29 weeks ago...

Given this, I fail to see how the phrase 'limited progress' can be justified when set against the above global vaccine programmes that have been stood up in such a short space of time, and if you want to go further and use the phrase when discussing potential macro investment influence, then we must be very near to the point where, with a fair wind, some ground-breaking news developments can't be too far away in this area given the trial bow-wave building up in the above chart....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342362

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 9:08 pm

Let's remember that COVID-19 was only declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organisation on March 11th of this year.

That's just 29 weeks ago...

Given this, I fail to see how the phrase 'limited progress' can be justified when set against the above global vaccine programmes that have been stood up in such a short space of time, and if you want to go further and use the phrase when discussing potential macro investment influence, then we must be very near to the point where, with a fair wind, some ground-breaking news developments can't be too far away in this area given the trial bow-wave building up in the above chart....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


I sincerely hope so, but until some thing is demonstrated to work with acceptable side effects I remain unconvinced.

I do hope that the many earlier claims that fell apart, will not be a recurring theme for these later trials.

My experience of biotech companies is that the sales and marketing folks optimism exceeds what the scientists on the front line deliver by a lot. Such folk may not make the wild optimistic claims of the politicians, but they are nevertheless in the business of getting stock prices up and the way they do that is by implying that success is almost upon us.

If any of these approaches gets anywhere we will see a re-rating of a whole lot of equities that would be immediate beneficiaries, but from my looking at price charts there is no sign of that at all.

Optimists will decide that science is close to a solution in record time, where as equity watchers like me and more importantly the big guys with big research departments will call it limited progress until we see something that works and then we will be out buying the equity of the wonder drug maker and all the other folk who will benefit.

Meanwhile investor and trader are focused on what is working for longs and that is stuff that assumes these difficult times will be with us for many more months. At the same time they are continuing to short business who will suffer in these hard times.

I hope I am completely wrong in my view as masks and all the restrictions are getting very old and worse the UK politicians are moving into dangerous territory using c19 as a rational for draconian measures with extortionate fines like the £10k ones they have recently announced, all without any parliamentary scrutiny.

There is now imho a serious political risk to UK equities based on what the government is doing and not doing, that is hurting the £ as were are rapidly approaching a time when the chancellor will have to extend payments to folk laid off through no fault of their own, or pay out a lot more in benefits as these folk lose their jobs.

Couple all of this with politicians operating under the veil of emergency legislation with no parliamentary over sight and it can get ugly fast.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342368

Postby Itsallaguess » September 23rd, 2020, 9:26 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
I sincerely hope so, but until some thing is demonstrated to work with acceptable side effects I remain unconvinced.

I do hope that the many earlier claims that fell apart, will not be a recurring theme for these later trials.

My experience of biotech companies is that the sales and marketing folks optimism exceeds what the scientists on the front line deliver by a lot. Such folk may not make the wild optimistic claims of the politicians, but they are nevertheless in the business of getting stock prices up and the way they do that is by implying that success is almost upon us.

If any of these approaches gets anywhere we will see a re-rating of a whole lot of equities that would be immediate beneficiaries, but from my looking at price charts there is no sign of that at all.


Interesting perspective. Had to chuckle though, as I wonder if you'd be having the same doubts if Musk were running the trials...

The bottom line Ody, is that with regards to any vaccine-related macro benefits, your need for strong 'results-led' conviction would be likely to leave you missing out on any market-benefits of such announcements. Good news on this front it likely to reverberate around the world rather quickly, one would imagine...

Your choice, of course, but you were wanting to discuss macro influences whilst also wanting to discount the huge strides made in the current vaccine programmes, and I think it's a mistake to do that, and it reminds me of that quote from Interstellar a little -

Ody - "It's not possible.."

Global science - "No, it's necessary..."

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342375

Postby odysseus2000 » September 23rd, 2020, 9:55 pm

Interesting perspective. Had to chuckle though, as I wonder if you'd be having the same doubts if Musk were running the trials...

The bottom line Ody, is that with regards to any vaccine-related macro benefits, your need for strong 'results-led' conviction would be likely to leave you missing out on any market-benefits of such announcements. Good news on this front it likely to reverberate around the world rather quickly, one would imagine...

Your choice, of course, but you were wanting to discuss macro influences whilst also wanting to discount the huge strides made in the current vaccine programmes, and I think it's a mistake to do that, and it reminds me of that quote from Interstellar a little -

Ody - "It's not possible.."

Global science - "No, it's necessary..."

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


If any of these vaccines work then the folk in the know will be buying relevant equity before there is a public announcement.

That is the signal I am looking for and not seeing.

Clearly there will be plenty of false positives and indeed there have already been some, so that one has to see clear supportive action rather than jumping at every possible move like trout after flies.

In ideal conditions there will be many disappointments so that everyone will have lost faith and will read every announcement with a yawn. Then when everyone has given up something will be discovered.

The Spanish flu lasted from Feb 1918 to April 1920. One can argue that medical tech is orders of magnitude better, but on the flip side Corona virus have only been around about 60 years and this one was not named "novel" without due cause.

Science is rarely convenient for anyone and also rarely happens in the consistent and methodical ways portrayed in the movies or wished by the politicians or is as clear and convincing as the NYT shows, no matter how good the prose or how beautiful the graphs.

One current positive is that all the macro conditions are currently ugly and that may be enough to cause the chancellor to stop worrying about the £ and extend reliefs via the printing press and at the cost of more debt and that could give the FTSE a bounce.

Still I hope that I have this entirely wrong.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342427

Postby dealtn » September 24th, 2020, 8:46 am

odysseus2000 wrote:If any of these vaccines work then the folk in the know will be buying relevant equity before there is a public announcement.

That is the signal I am looking for and not seeing.


Even if your faith in insiders, and the price signal as a predictor of the future, is true (which I doubt, but that's irrelevant), a number of those pharma companies have said they will be doing the vaccine on a non-profit basis.

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342483

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2020, 12:05 pm

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:If any of these vaccines work then the folk in the know will be buying relevant equity before there is a public announcement.

That is the signal I am looking for and not seeing.


Even if your faith in insiders, and the price signal as a predictor of the future, is true (which I doubt, but that's irrelevant), a number of those pharma companies have said they will be doing the vaccine on a non-profit basis.


It will be great if they do and there are examples of pharma's doing this kind of thing, but there are also examples of them saying they would and still managing to make a lot of money in various ways that circumvent the statement.

AstraZeneca's share price e.g. has been volatile around the closing and then re-opening of trials following one patients bad reaction.

Regards,

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Re: Coronavirus - (macro investment aspects only please)

#342494

Postby dealtn » September 24th, 2020, 12:23 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:If any of these vaccines work then the folk in the know will be buying relevant equity before there is a public announcement.

That is the signal I am looking for and not seeing.


Even if your faith in insiders, and the price signal as a predictor of the future, is true (which I doubt, but that's irrelevant), a number of those pharma companies have said they will be doing the vaccine on a non-profit basis.


It will be great if they do and there are examples of pharma's doing this kind of thing, but there are also examples of them saying they would and still managing to make a lot of money in various ways that circumvent the statement.

AstraZeneca's share price e.g. has been volatile around the closing and then re-opening of trials following one patients bad reaction.

Regards,


This is true and I don't deny it. But are markets rational as a first order effect? Further is the rational response also to believe that some don't know of the non-profit motive and assume there is a profit one, as such the rational second order effect is to trade the (incorrect) direction driven behaviour of those assuming a profit motive etc.?

Markets are complex, and have different dynamics over different time frames. You will be aware of the quote about markets being both voting and weighing machines I suspect.


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