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Musk endeavours

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BobbyD
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Re: Musk endeavours

#409620

Postby BobbyD » May 5th, 2021, 5:10 pm

Howard wrote:Tesla said to be facing 6-month delay in opening Gigafactory Berlin, based on German report - Electrek


They don't yet have finalised planning permission so I'm not even sure how they can have set a date to measure the delay from...

Howard wrote:Demand for Teslas in Germany and the rest of Europe can currently be satisfied from the Californian and Chinese plants. Might this be another (unspoken) reason for the six month delay in opening?


Being allowed to not tear down the buildings, built at their own risk ahead of planning approval, is only the first hurdle in actually producing cars, the second...

Howard wrote:Tesla said to be facing 6-month delay in opening Gigafactory Berlin, based on German report - Electrek

What happens to all the staff who were being recruited?


...yup, German factory culture. Teslas working practices are a complete anathema to the German way ...and assuming they are allowed to keep their factory upright just wait until Musk discovers that this IG Metal he has been hearing so much about are not a cool German Death Metal band.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409623

Postby odysseus2000 » May 5th, 2021, 5:20 pm

Howard
Demand for Teslas in Germany and the rest of Europe can currently be satisfied from the Californian and Chinese plants. Might this be another (unspoken) reason for the six month delay in opening?


How do you know?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409646

Postby odysseus2000 » May 5th, 2021, 7:24 pm

Munro episode 6, Ford Mach E (35:29 mins):

https://youtu.be/SDm8czrF5w0

Good summary, much preferred over id4, but Tesla y seen as still having an edge.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409708

Postby odysseus2000 » May 5th, 2021, 11:46 pm

SN15 lands, was a post from reformedcharacter that then vanished.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1 ... 09859?s=20

Fabulous!

Post-landing fire looks to have been extinguished after venting from various outlets and spraying with water canon.

SN15 looks to be vertical and with no obvious damage to the landing legs.

Great job SpaceX!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409779

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2021, 11:37 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Demand for Teslas in Germany and the rest of Europe can currently be satisfied from the Californian and Chinese plants. Might this be another (unspoken) reason for the six month delay in opening?


How do you know?

Regards,


The frank answer is that no-one outside Tesla knows. Indications are that delivery quotes on Model 3 are incredibly short. At quarter end in the UK and other parts of Europe cars are available in a week or two. Now it's a little longer, late May early June for most model configurations. However, if you want a new premium car from their German competitors you'd have to wait three months plus for delivery.

Model 3 supply is matching demand and prices are not moving upwards. In contrast prices for competitors' cars are increasing.

You don't want to hear this, but second hand ICE prices for mid priced cars are also very buoyant.

Leasing companies and car distributors are reporting surprisingly good results too. Our KIA is leased from ALD who reported their results today, surprisingly profitable - have a look at their webcast - seehttps://www.aldautomotive.com/... it will give you a guide to the European situation.

Cambria, a fairly typical UK car distributor reported good results yesterday, shares up nearly 100% in a year.

Ody, you know Tesla's manufacturing capacity better than I do. Why haven't they sold more cars in Germany? It is such a key BEV market and massively important to their new plant. Despite Covid their competitors are increasing sales significantly.

And, after all the triumphalist forecasts on this thread that they would dominate German car manufacturers, surely you agree it is quite a come-down that recruiting has been put back by at least six months? Does this indicate that as Tesla grows they are becoming just another car manufacturer with many of the same issues as legacy companies?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409794

Postby odysseus2000 » May 6th, 2021, 12:31 pm

Tesla is out selling the ID3 and ID4 combined by 1.7x

viewtopic.php?p=408839#p408839

The ID3 and ID4 are VW's answer to Tesla and they are not selling well. That is a huge red flag for VW and its investors.

Sure if you include all manner of legacy Frankenstein stuff you can argue that legacy is going great, but these are old and tired vehicles, it is the comparison to the new stuff that matters.

As things are we have Tesla on the earnings call saying, demand is off the scale, they can sell every car they can produce. The performance of outselling the ID3 & ID4 combined with no European manufacturing is an extraordinary achievement and suggests, at least to me, that with German made Tesla's available that out performance would jump.

Yes, the delay in Berlin if it happens is disappointing, but I suspect it will only increase pent up demand and I expect Tesla cars to continue to be reduced in price as Tesla increase their manufacturing efficiency, adding to their market advantages of having the only credible car for the 21st century. If the model 3 was not sought after it would not have dethrone the BMW competitor to make the 3 the most sought after premium car in its class.

Other than the glowing reports from various consumer publications about how good the ID3 and ID4 are I have seen no support from the folk who have street cred in terms of what is good from a practical and engineering perspective. Indeed Munro has noticeably cooled on his previously poor opinion of the ID4 he tried.

I expect ICE prices to be buoyant until the day when they are not. As things are most potential car buyers have no clue about BEV and the ones I meet regularly speak about limited range and the fear of being stuck somewhere. However, at some point this is going to switch and ICE will not recover when reality hits home. There was a very similar phenomenon when diesel cars first arrived, many didn't want them and then they became the cars of choice of many motorists. I expect BEV to do the same although without the kick back that hurt diesel after the politicians decided that diesel was not green, although with the ad-blue systems, diesels are very clean.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409803

Postby BobbyD » May 6th, 2021, 1:55 pm

Howard wrote:
The frank answer is that no-one outside Tesla knows. Indications are that delivery quotes on Model 3 are incredibly short. At quarter end in the UK and other parts of Europe cars are available in a week or two. Now it's a little longer, late May early June for most model configurations.


To be fair, that might just be due to increased availability due to the fact that the Model 3 has become obsolete in the US where having cannibalised Model X and Model S sales it is in turn being cannibalised by the Model Y.

Now maintaining a market to dump unwanted and obsolete Model 3's in to sounds like a pressing concern which could incentivize Tesla to try and lose the German factory in their incredibly long list of overdue projects.

California registrations for Tesla's Model 3 mass-market sedan fell 54% on a yearly basis to 8,060, while Tesla's Model Y compact crossover utility vehicle garnered 12,227 in the first quarter, Cross-Sell data showed on Tuesday.


- https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 021-04-21/

US Model 3 sales



- https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-mod ... sa-canada/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409807

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2021, 1:58 pm

Ody,
You are repeating your forecasts which long ago proved incorrect.

And ID.3 sales are a distraction at the moment. We don't know the production constraints for VW. Plus read VW's Q1 report. Their operating profit shot up.

If Tesla's competitors are selling lots of BEVs in Germany and developing successful distribution chains and making profits then this is a problem for Tesla in the future. Your view of individual cars' features is irrelevant if customers like them and the cars are reliable and perform well.

The key question asked above is, given the huge commitment to the new plant, why aren't Tesla selling many cars in Germany? It's a huge BEV market and they appear to be missing out.

Regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409808

Postby odysseus2000 » May 6th, 2021, 1:59 pm

BobbyD
To be fair, that might just be due to increased availability due to the fact that the Model 3 has become obsolete in the US where having cannibalised Model X and Model S sales it is in turn being cannibalised by the Model Y.

Now maintaining a market to dump unwanted and obsolete Model 3's in to sounds like a pressing concern which could incentivize Tesla to try and lose the German factory in their incredibly long list of overdue projects.


Ha Ha! Dream on!

Tesla is sending cars all over the world and that means that some markets won't get as many as there is demand causing registration to fall.

However, the model 3 is the world's best selling car in its class, having taken that spot from BMW.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409809

Postby odysseus2000 » May 6th, 2021, 2:03 pm

If Tesla's competitors are selling lots of BEVs in Germany and developing successful distribution chains and making profits then this is a problem for Tesla in the future. Your view of individual cars' features is irrelevant if customers like them and the cars are reliable and perform well.

The key question asked above is, given the huge commitment to the new plant, why aren't Tesla selling many cars in Germany? It's a huge BEV market and they appear to be missing out.


There are a lot of ifs in here.

ID3 and ID4 are the new cars from VW, designed to be mass market and kill Tesla, problem is they are very poor cars and are not selling well.

Tesla can only make so many cars and they are rationing them between markets.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409812

Postby BobbyD » May 6th, 2021, 2:10 pm

Howard wrote:And ID.3 sales are a distraction at the moment. We don't know the production constraints for VW. Plus read VW's Q1 report. Their operating profit shot up.


Remember profit is a sign of failure

BobbyD wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Fascinating how selling a car like the Porsche at very high margin, or in layman terms very over priced, is seen as a great success story.

If the punters will continue to pony up then all will be well, but what happens if punters stop being so enthusiastic with their money?

With Porsche we have all the ingredients necessary for serious trouble: A massively over priced ice car that uses obsolete fuel & is being competed against by its own BEV stable mate at -ve margin.

Very like a tall stack of dominoes, any slight push such as higher carbon tax & the whole edifice comes crashing down & history tells us that such a decline is inevitable.

If I was an owner of VW stock I would sell & never come back.

Regards,


Analysts at the Communist Bank of Ody today dropped their rating on Porsche from Sell to Sell now you crazy MF's, on the basis that Porsche's profit margin is far too high.The note read, "Making money by selling cars, whatever do they think they are doing?". Their rating on Tesla remained steady at 'put your house on it' citing the company's reassuring inability to break even for more than 5 minutes in any financial year which is clear evidence of their future world domination.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409820

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2021, 3:04 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
If Tesla's competitors are selling lots of BEVs in Germany and developing successful distribution chains and making profits then this is a problem for Tesla in the future. Your view of individual cars' features is irrelevant if customers like them and the cars are reliable and perform well.

The key question asked above is, given the huge commitment to the new plant, why aren't Tesla selling many cars in Germany? It's a huge BEV market and they appear to be missing out.


There are a lot of ifs in here.

ID3 and ID4 are the new cars from VW, designed to be mass market and kill Tesla, problem is they are very poor cars and are not selling well.

Tesla can only make so many cars and they are rationing them between markets.

Regards,


Ok. No "ifs".

Tesla are failing to sell cars in volume in Germany.

Only you talk about "killing". Your views are too extreme.

Comparing the ID.3 to the Model 3 is foolish. The ID.3 is a hatchback aimed at a market which requires a five door car. Tesla aren't competing with the ID.3 or the ID.4 in Germany. Tesla are selling a sedan/saloon car, appealing to a limited market segment, and it's obviously not attracting much demand.

Yes, Tesla have been successful in selling cars across the world to enthusiasts who are willing to forgive their many faults, OTA update problems being one significant weakness. ;)

You appear to be avoiding the fact that Tesla sales in Germany are low. And they are competing with a range of competitors, not all German, who are growing sales of BEVs significantly. And many of them appear to be much more profitable than Tesla who are struggling to make a profit and struggling to contain major delays in building a plant.

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409831

Postby TUK020 » May 6th, 2021, 3:44 pm

The stream of consciousness flows around obstacles of fact and over dams of analysis to continue on its way

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409848

Postby odysseus2000 » May 6th, 2021, 4:41 pm

Howard
Tesla are selling a sedan/saloon car, appealing to a limited market segment, and it's obviously not attracting much demand.


Yet, it is now the most popular model in its class, having dethroned the BMW.

As I have repeatedly mentioned I am looking at the big picture.

In the big picture, Tesla from essentially two car plants, have come to dominate the market for model 3 class cars and demand suggests that the Y will do even better.

Most legacy is still committed to ICE, with the best of them (VW) also unwilling to make a car to challenge Tesla.

If the VW ID3 and ID4 were any good they would be outselling Tesla, especially since Tesla currently have no competitor to the ID3, but they are not. Tesla, even having to import every car, is outselling them at 1.7x.

By contrast in Howard view, legacy auto is doing great and can't possible be hurt by a new upstart and eventually legacy power and quality will enable it to triumph. He conveniently forgets about the terrible state of Legacies balance sheet and the horrendous labour troubles as existing work forces are culled.

I have a course plotted from what is happening now, based on the movie: "The decline and fall of the UK car industry."

Howard has a course plotted from what happened BT (Before Tesla).

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409883

Postby Howard » May 6th, 2021, 6:26 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Howard
Tesla are selling a sedan/saloon car, appealing to a limited market segment, and it's obviously not attracting much demand.


Yet, it is now the most popular model in its class, having dethroned the BMW.

As I have repeatedly mentioned I am looking at the big picture.

In the big picture, Tesla from essentially two car plants, have come to dominate the market for model 3 class cars and demand suggests that the Y will do even better.

Most legacy is still committed to ICE, with the best of them (VW) also unwilling to make a car to challenge Tesla.

If the VW ID3 and ID4 were any good they would be outselling Tesla, especially since Tesla currently have no competitor to the ID3, but they are not. Tesla, even having to import every car, is outselling them at 1.7x.

By contrast in Howard view, legacy auto is doing great and can't possible be hurt by a new upstart and eventually legacy power and quality will enable it to triumph. He conveniently forgets about the terrible state of Legacies balance sheet and the horrendous labour troubles as existing work forces are culled.

I have a course plotted from what is happening now, based on the movie: "The decline and fall of the UK car industry."

Howard has a course plotted from what happened BT (Before Tesla).

Regards,


Ody, you have a point. I did once own a British Leyland car and experienced some of 'the decline of the UK car industry'. It had some uncannily similar faults to Teslas. Bad panel gaps were one and noise at speed another . But it didn't have to go back to a service centre too frequently. ;)

regards

Howard

PS Now driving a BEV - what about you?
Last edited by Howard on May 6th, 2021, 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409886

Postby odysseus2000 » May 6th, 2021, 6:32 pm

Apparently Tesla have sold out all of Q2 production with over 2 months of Q2 left:

https://electrek.co/2021/05/06/tesla-ts ... s-quarter/

If this is correct, then wow!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#409951

Postby BobbyD » May 6th, 2021, 11:20 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Apparently Tesla have sold out all of Q2 production with over 2 months of Q2 left:

https://electrek.co/2021/05/06/tesla-ts ... s-quarter/

If this is correct, then wow!

Regards,


Strange that if you order a Model 3 now the estimated UK delivery date is 'May'....

Model X is 'end of 2022'!!!! So is model S, including Plaid and Plaid+ which to be fair is probably still very optimistic!

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Re: Musk endeavours

#410091

Postby odysseus2000 » May 7th, 2021, 3:30 pm

Werner Von Braun predicted 70 years ago that a man called Elon would travel to Mars and set up a government and colonise the red planet:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/14881853/ ... rce=pushly

Fabulous coincidence, or are there time travellers?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#410158

Postby odysseus2000 » May 7th, 2021, 9:22 pm

This is a technical discussion comparing the electrical systems of the MachE, the ID4 and the Tesla Model 3.

(Specially for Howard about the advantages of over the air updates (OTA))

The Tesla model 3 has no fuses, but has circuit breakers that can be switched from disabled to enabled via OTA commands and in some cases can correct two faults. The advantage is that there is no fuse to replace and if the problem that caused the trip to occur can be fixed via OTA, then there is no need to visit a service station as would be essential for either the Id4 or the Mach E unless the owner has the knowledge and patience to look at a lot of fuses
Watch discussion 15:27 to 20:10 in the video:

https://youtu.be/ZRkm6-bBk4U

Also interesting that Tesla wanted to go for a 48 Volt system, but the suppliers only offer 12 volt. Note a 48 volt system would allow the same power as a 12 volt system but at 1/4 the current, allowing the use of thinner wires with Munro saying copper is $2 per lb. His engineers have to take out 1 g of weight per day of their design and Munro said this has cut out kg of weight.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#410300

Postby odysseus2000 » May 8th, 2021, 3:48 pm

An 11 minute video showing how consumer reports did not report facts correctly, saying the Ford no driver detection system was better than Tesla, but independent tests show how easy it is to defeat the Ford driver detection system:

https://youtu.be/vO9Gsyerv8s

Regards,


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