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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#420553

Postby odysseus2000 » June 18th, 2021, 4:50 pm

All the cars we've owned for the past 17 years have been second hand Honda Civics. FWIW Teslas aren't exactly mass-market vehicles are they? Somewhat of luxury brand.

Kinda gob smacked at the current valuation of 600x earnings. Does that imply something north of 500% annual growth for about the next decade?

Matt


Tesla are moving towards mass market: Nearly 500k last year, prediction of 1 million for this year, rising rapidly to 10-20 million by 2030.

If one uses traditional valuation metrics then Yes, Tesla looks expensive for an auto maker.

However, Tesla is viewed as a software company, AI neural net maker and trainer, robo taxi maker, green energy car maker, renewable energy generation and storage, potential crypto business, and should they perform as expected the rate of growth of earnings will soon bring the forward p/e down substantially.

Additionally Tesla has a lot of cash on the balance sheet and can make mistakes and write them off, whereas legacy is uniformly in debt with little room to manoeuvre.

The investment case for Tesla has never been based on valuation, but on the belief that it will transform several industries.

It is not a stock for anyone who only feels comfortable with traditional valuation.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420554

Postby odysseus2000 » June 18th, 2021, 4:54 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsKwMryKqRE

Not exactly an endorsement of the design of the Model S's charging system.

Matt


This has now be designed out of the Plaid, replaced with a lithium ion batter.

All existing BEVs from all manufacturers copied the tesla system using a Lead-acid battery, so James May problem is not unique to Tesla and a VW ID4

suffered in an identical way in a recent video.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420556

Postby odysseus2000 » June 18th, 2021, 4:59 pm

All the cars we've owned for the past 17 years have been second hand Honda Civics. FWIW Teslas aren't exactly mass-market vehicles are they? Somewhat of luxury brand.

Kinda gob smacked at the current valuation of 600x earnings. Does that imply something north of 500% annual growth for about the next decade?

Matt


The Ford Mach E was promoted as a premium brand, but yes, a lot of Ford's line up is more aimed at reasonable quality and low price.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420569

Postby Howard » June 18th, 2021, 5:42 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Unfortunately Tesla is not a premium car manufacturer. Yes it has some great technology but it cannot yet make cars to the high standards of fit and finish required by those who only want the very best.

John


All the objective car reviews I have seen are now rating Tesla has a premium car manufacturer.

By contrast some of legacy auto is struggling. The Munro tear down of the Mach E, showed how the Mach E had "oil-canning" on the rear wing and bad tail gate fitting, out by Munro's small finger for being flush.

Even Howard is now admitting that Tesla quality issues are long gone.

As the new casting technology begins to be used, body components that are reproducibly good to a few microns will be come standard.

Regards,


Wonderful quote attribution, Ody. :shock:

I’ll forgive you for wildly exaggerating claims about Tesla but let’s be accurate on what I wrote.

Howard wrote:

Since our discussion about the range of Teslas a few months ago on this thread I have had the opportunity to chat to a knowledgeable Tesla employee and he volunteered that in the UK in winter it is sensible to assume a Model 3 LR range will be reduced to quite a bit less than 300 miles. He mentioned that the heat pump adds a little, but in cold conditions he conceded most drivers want to use the car heater and have to accept a reduced range.

......

To be honest, I admit that he persuaded me that a lot of the earlier quality problems experienced in UK cars have now been addressed and the latest cars are of a high standard. He didn't counter my scepticism about the ability of FSD to read UK road situations though. ;)

regards

Howard


viewtopic.php?p=419131#p419131

That is an improvement, but do Tesla attain the very high quality standards required of a premium car? My measure would be never having to visit a service centre, apart from an annual/two yearly service. My premium cars have delivered that over more than 20 years of owning a few in that period. Reading Tesla owners’ comments and surveys, I’m not sure whether a new Tesla will deliver that …. yet. An impressive car to drive, yes, but engineering tolerances aren't important to owners of premium cars, reliability is a far more important factor.

No one relishes having to take an expensive car into a service centre to have faults repaired. Let's hope the Tesla employee I spoke to is right!

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420596

Postby BobbyD » June 18th, 2021, 7:22 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
The really funny thing is the lengths they have gone to to make the claim.

- It's not 0-60, with a 1 foot roll out it's closer to 5-60*

- They were only allowed to test the car at a specific circuit, with the tarmac prepared in a certain way.

- The 'Drag Strip mode' which was required takes between EIGHT MINUTES and FIFTEEN MINUTES to do it's thing!!!!!!


It's not just an inaccurate claim, and absolutely without utility but it's dripping with desperation. It's acceleration would have been plenty fast without all the misdirection and obfuscation which brings it in to disrepute, if going from 0-60 in 2.2s is your kind of thing.

Still if Tesla can put this amount of time and effort in to something as mind numbingly pointless as massaging the S's take off figures one has to assume that we will be seeing the X, X plaid, Roadster, Semi, CT, and FSD release version imminently!

*No it's not 'standard' it's not even how they measure the 0-60 for the model S LR.


The procedure and measurement practicalities are how premium cars are compared and have to be so, to set the test standards for top of the range cars and to give buyers of these cars quantitative comparisons.

Regards,


It takes some chutzpah to defend a company using different measurement techniques on two different models in the same range, whose statistics are listed on the same page on the grounds that it gives buyers a better comparison.

It isn't 0-60, advertising it as 0-60 is plainly misleading. Comparing it to a different measurement for the cheaper model S in order to exacerbate the apparent difference is indefensible.

It's also incredibly stupid. If they used a genuine 0-60 time which axtually reflected the amount of time it took the car to go from 0 to 60 rather than from 5 to 60 nobody would deny it was really quite fast, and they'd look less like they were desperately trying to compensate for insecurities elsewhere.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420602

Postby odysseus2000 » June 18th, 2021, 7:40 pm

No one relishes having to take an expensive car into a service centre to have faults repaired. Let's hope the Tesla employee I spoke to is right!

regards

Howard


Does anyone relish having to take a car in for an oil change, oil filter change and fuel filter change, not to mention do they relish all the tail pipe emissions at street level from diesel or petrol and all the C02 from both types of ICE engines.

There is an awful lot to dislike about any ICE vehicle.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420604

Postby odysseus2000 » June 18th, 2021, 7:45 pm

BobbyD
It takes some chutzpah to defend a company using different measurement techniques on two different models in the same range, whose statistics are listed on the same page on the grounds that it gives buyers a better comparison.

It isn't 0-60, advertising it as 0-60 is plainly misleading. Comparing it to a different measurement for the cheaper model S in order to exacerbate the apparent difference is indefensible.

It's also incredibly stupid. If they used a genuine 0-60 time which axtually reflected the amount of time it took the car to go from 0 to 60 rather than from 5 to 60 nobody would deny it was really quite fast, and they'd look less like they were desperately trying to compensate for insecurities elsewhere.


The experienced folk who did the tests of the drag strip surface and again on tarmac do not raise any of these issues.

They note how remarkable the Plaid is:

The quickest car we've ever tested is a $150K five-seat sedan, not some multimillion-dollar, carbon-fiber-encrusted road missile. It's remarkably well rounded, exhibiting a combination of comfort, luxury, performance, and efficiency that remained a sci-fi fantasy in 2013 when we named the Model S the MotorTrend Car of the Year. Regardless of how much you care about acceleration numbers and how they're achieved, perhaps the most important takeaway is that the Model S Plaid is absolutely among the best cars on the market today.

Surely the commentary of an independent needs to be given some weight?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420656

Postby Howard » June 18th, 2021, 11:46 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
No one relishes having to take an expensive car into a service centre to have faults repaired. Let's hope the Tesla employee I spoke to is right!

regards

Howard


Does anyone relish having to take a car in for an oil change, oil filter change and fuel filter change, not to mention do they relish all the tail pipe emissions at street level from diesel or petrol and all the C02 from both types of ICE engines.

There is an awful lot to dislike about any ICE vehicle.

Regards,


Yes that's obvious. But surely we all want electric vehicles to be better than ICE vehicles? Not less reliable?

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420660

Postby BobbyD » June 19th, 2021, 12:06 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
It takes some chutzpah to defend a company using different measurement techniques on two different models in the same range, whose statistics are listed on the same page on the grounds that it gives buyers a better comparison.

It isn't 0-60, advertising it as 0-60 is plainly misleading. Comparing it to a different measurement for the cheaper model S in order to exacerbate the apparent difference is indefensible.

It's also incredibly stupid. If they used a genuine 0-60 time which axtually reflected the amount of time it took the car to go from 0 to 60 rather than from 5 to 60 nobody would deny it was really quite fast, and they'd look less like they were desperately trying to compensate for insecurities elsewhere.


The experienced folk who did the tests of the drag strip surface and again on tarmac do not raise any of these issues.


Do you actually read anything before you cite it?

...No matter the surface, to get the quickest launch from a 2022 Tesla Model S Plaid, you must dive into the car's infotainment system and select Drag Strip mode. Over the next eight to 15 minutes (the time needed varies), the car preconditions the powertrain for hard acceleration, heating or cooling the battery as needed and chilling the motors.

...Once ready and in its cheetah stance, the Model S Plaid's launch is drama-free, even without the added advantage of VHT. The electric car accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in just 2.07 seconds, more than 0.2 second quicker than our previous record holder. Eliminate the customary one-foot of rollout and the Plaid accelerates from 0-60 mph in 2.28 seconds, matching the previous record holder with rollout. And if we could have kept going, our data says it's capable of running through the quarter mile in 9.34 seconds at 152.2 mph.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420672

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 19th, 2021, 7:54 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsKwMryKqRE

Not exactly an endorsement of the design of the Model S's charging system.

Matt


This has now be designed out of the Plaid, replaced with a lithium ion batter.

All existing BEVs from all manufacturers copied the tesla system using a Lead-acid battery, so James May problem is not unique to Tesla and a VW ID4

suffered in an identical way in a recent video.

Regards,

I didn't think the Pb-ness or Li-ness of the battery was the flaw. It was the disconnect, pardoning the pun, between the ECU (which is powered the old skool car battery) and the micro-processor in charge of the rectification and charging of the power-to-the-wheels battery.

It's clear that if these cars are intended for the very rich then the ownership group will be those who tend to keep multiple vehicles, and hence are naturally prone to the exact same issue of JMs. And yes that last one of mine is intended as much as a critique of VW as it is of Tesla! ;)

Matt

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420676

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » June 19th, 2021, 8:04 am

BobbyD wrote:Do you actually read anything before you cite it?

...No matter the surface, to get the quickest launch from a 2022 Tesla Model S Plaid, you must dive into the car's infotainment system and select Drag Strip mode. Over the next eight to 15 minutes (the time needed varies), the car preconditions the powertrain for hard acceleration, heating or cooling the battery as needed and chilling the motors.

...Once ready and in its cheetah stance, the Model S Plaid's launch is drama-free, even without the added advantage of VHT. The electric car accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in just 2.07 seconds, more than 0.2 second quicker than our previous record holder. Eliminate the customary one-foot of rollout and the Plaid accelerates from 0-60 mph in 2.28 seconds, matching the previous record holder with rollout. And if we could have kept going, our data says it's capable of running through the quarter mile in 9.34 seconds at 152.2 mph.

Which is lovely for an incredibly rich boy racer, but not for the mass market. So bizarre that the stock has 500% growth priced in. The price seems, at least to me, to have the cult of personality heavily baked into it, if that's not a statement of the obvious.

Matt

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420693

Postby BobbyD » June 19th, 2021, 10:01 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:
BobbyD wrote:Do you actually read anything before you cite it?

...No matter the surface, to get the quickest launch from a 2022 Tesla Model S Plaid, you must dive into the car's infotainment system and select Drag Strip mode. Over the next eight to 15 minutes (the time needed varies), the car preconditions the powertrain for hard acceleration, heating or cooling the battery as needed and chilling the motors.

...Once ready and in its cheetah stance, the Model S Plaid's launch is drama-free, even without the added advantage of VHT. The electric car accelerates from 0 to 60 mph in just 2.07 seconds, more than 0.2 second quicker than our previous record holder. Eliminate the customary one-foot of rollout and the Plaid accelerates from 0-60 mph in 2.28 seconds, matching the previous record holder with rollout. And if we could have kept going, our data says it's capable of running through the quarter mile in 9.34 seconds at 152.2 mph.

Which is lovely for an incredibly rich boy racer, but not for the mass market. So bizarre that the stock has 500% growth priced in. The price seems, at least to me, to have the cult of personality heavily baked into it, if that's not a statement of the obvious.

Matt


I don't think it's even that useful for an incredibly rich boy racer... What sort of boy racer is willing to wait 15 minutes for his car to pre-condition itself for a single launch?

This is the opening to the article Ody is citing in support of his claim that Tesla have managed a sub 2 second 0-60

"No production car has ever done 0-60 mph in under 2.0 seconds. "—Elon Musk

After an exclusive MotorTrend first test of the new 1,020-hp 2022 Tesla Model S Plaid, a car with a promised 1.99-second 0-60-mph time, we can confirm the 2.0-second 0-60 barrier remains unbroken. Unless, that is, you write your own rules.


There's certainly some form of delusion going on!

Tesla isn't a company it's a religion, with a very strange choice of god.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420735

Postby odysseus2000 » June 19th, 2021, 1:44 pm

I am fascinated by this recent thread brought on by the Plaid.

Let us start with basics. All motor manufacturers have since the first car, come out with performance claims measured under optimum conditions. That is how the marketing part of the auto industry does things and Tesla are no different to everyone else. Several years ago Top Gear did some tests where they raced cars like yesteryear Jaguar that had been marketed as high performance against more modern and much more modestly engined passenger cars. The newer cars easily out performed the sports car of yesteryear. However, in the heyday of Jags and such the marketing claims sold a lot of Jags. Nowadays it is more difficult to pull the wool over the punters face and so the manufacturers set up test conditions that their cars are tuned for such as high traction tarmac etc and in the by and by a set of ideal drag racing conditions have been developed that all manufacturers now use as the basis to optimise their cars. The motor trend article makes this point very explicitly. It is not that Tesla are requesting test conditions that are unique to them, but that they are requesting industry standard test conditions for high performance cars.

Another area of confusion seems to be why should Tesla et al bother? The Plaid is all about marketing, about showing perspective punters that Tesla make the best cars in the world and in this case that BEV are far superior to ICE. It is an exact analogy of why all the major auto makers compete in Formula 1. A buyer of a car from a maker of competent F1 car is never going to get the performance of an F1 car, but punters associate success at F1 with quality of the cars that they can buy, even if the links are mostly psychological rather than reality.

Anyone who thinks logically and prudently about their purchase decisions is not going to buy a BEV. As RedSturgeon notes, a second hand ICE is a far more sensible purchase, but many people are not guided by logic and prudence. They are instead attracted by newness, wanting the best and most awe inspiring products and it is to this generally wealthy and high disposal incomes that car makers pitch their new products at. This is what Tesla are doing. By contrast VW are trying to pitch their line of ID3 and ID4 cars to prudent logical buyers. Purchasers have options, but in my studies of new technology it has always been the folk who offer new stuff with acceptable performance and price that dominate, where as those that try and sell marginally better stuff at higher prices, or clearly substandard stuff at the same price that fail.

Another area of confusion is valuation and how this applies to rapidly growing companies with the potential to create and dominate entirely new products and services. Valuation was a technique established by several investors to compare the strong business of decades ago, all of them operating with manufacturing and consumption conditions that have long been superseded by more modern approaches. Why should the valuation techniques of decades ago apply to business that are operating now in entirely different ways in very much more prosperous economies? There are many fields where what was good decades ago is good now: Physics, Chemistry etc laws discovered in previous centuries still apply, but many other things have changed dramatically. We no longer rely on coal, journey times are much shorter, the quality of manufacturing is much better and consistent, etc… So many things that affect business and markets are different than they were and yet people still want to apply company analysis that was honed for yesteryear economies. It makes no sense.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420749

Postby Howard » June 19th, 2021, 2:53 pm

Ody

You post your own ideas as though they were facts. And they are hilariously wrong.

For example:

Another area of confusion seems to be why should Tesla et al bother? The Plaid is all about marketing, about showing perspective punters that Tesla make the best cars in the world and in this case that BEV are far superior to ICE. It is an exact analogy of why all the major auto makers compete in Formula 1. A buyer of a car from a maker of competent F1 car is never going to get the performance of an F1 car, but punters associate success at F1 with quality of the cars that they can buy, even if the links are mostly psychological rather than reality.

Can you name "all the major auto manufacturers competing in Formula 1"? Have you ever watched an F1 race?

Just to help you the top four major auto manufacturers by volume, measured recently, are:

Toyota
Volkswagen
Hyundai
General Motors

They don't compete in Formula 1.

In fact of the top 15 motor manufacturers only Renault, Honda, Ford and Mercedes are or have been significant players this century.

Nissan, PSA, Suzuki, Fiat, SAIC, BMW and Geely don't compete.

Your posts do contain some weird ideas completely divorced from reality sometimes. :)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420762

Postby odysseus2000 » June 19th, 2021, 4:15 pm

Can you name "all the major auto manufacturers competing in Formula 1"? Have you ever watched an F1 race?

Just to help you the top four major auto manufacturers by volume, measured recently, are:

Toyota
Volkswagen
Hyundai
General Motors

They don't compete in Formula 1.

In fact of the top 15 motor manufacturers only Renault, Honda, Ford and Mercedes are or have been significant players this century.

Nissan, PSA, Suzuki, Fiat, SAIC, BMW and Geely don't compete.

Your posts do contain some weird ideas completely divorced from reality sometimes. :)

regards

Howard


Of course the second rate, family transport type of auto business, do not compete in formula !.

What would be the point?

These manufactures are not selling dreams, or selling premium cars, they are selling shopping cart and school run boxes: Boring products to boring people who have a need and if someone needs something you do not, in general, need much marketing, you are simply competing in a commodity space where price is crucial.

Sure these box makers sell a lot of cars, but in no way are they 'major motor manufacturers' in the way that the house hold names of F1 are.

If anyone is going to invest in a business they need to know the markets that the business competes in and how they compete within that business. One can not compare the auto commodity business to the auto dreams business. Sure in both cases they are selling boxes, with 4 wheels and an engine, but for such similarities there is a world of difference between the ways in which the products are marketed and sold.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420768

Postby Howard » June 19th, 2021, 4:36 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Can you name "all the major auto manufacturers competing in Formula 1"? Have you ever watched an F1 race?

Just to help you the top four major auto manufacturers by volume, measured recently, are:

Toyota
Volkswagen
Hyundai
General Motors

They don't compete in Formula 1.

In fact of the top 15 motor manufacturers only Renault, Honda, Ford and Mercedes are or have been significant players this century.

Nissan, PSA, Suzuki, Fiat, SAIC, BMW and Geely don't compete.

Your posts do contain some weird ideas completely divorced from reality sometimes. :)

regards

Howard


Of course the second rate, family transport type of auto business, do not compete in formula !.

What would be the point?

These manufactures are not selling dreams, or selling premium cars, they are selling shopping cart and school run boxes: Boring products to boring people who have a need and if someone needs something you do not, in general, need much marketing, you are simply competing in a commodity space where price is crucial.

Sure these box makers sell a lot of cars, but in no way are they 'major motor manufacturers' in the way that the house hold names of F1 are.

If anyone is going to invest in a business they need to know the markets that the business competes in and how they compete within that business. One can not compare the auto commodity business to the auto dreams business. Sure in both cases they are selling boxes, with 4 wheels and an engine, but for such similarities there is a world of difference between the ways in which the products are marketed and sold.

Regards,


So, Ody, why did you suggest they all compete in Formula One?

And, by the way, they don't indulge in the schoolboy antics of drag races.

In most cases the premium brands are too busy selling cars at a profit. ;)

regards

Howard

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420787

Postby odysseus2000 » June 19th, 2021, 6:34 pm

So, Ody, why did you suggest they all compete in Formula One?

And, by the way, they don't indulge in the schoolboy antics of drag races.

In most cases the premium brands are too busy selling cars at a profit. ;)

regards

Howard


The brands and business that matter compete for margin.

The commodity business compete on price at low margins.

These are the two distinct areas that separate most of the commercial manufacturers of anything.

This is all fairly basic stuff. If one starts comparing a box maker to a premium box maker one is going to get in all manner of troubles, just as school teachers tell you: You can't compare oranges with lemons.

For investors/traders it is the premium makers where the equity profits are most usually the largest.

No one who seeks investment outperformance is going to look at a steady state GM or its ilk when there are higher margin opportunities like Tesla. Every now and then GM gets its self in trouble and has to be baled out. At that point GM has become in the past a potential source of excellent investor profits, but such times are rare, mostly GM and its low margin cousins are things for investors to avoid.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420832

Postby BobbyD » June 19th, 2021, 11:38 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I didn't think the Pb-ness or Li-ness of the battery was the flaw. It was the disconnect, pardoning the pun, between the ECU (which is powered the old skool car battery) and the micro-processor in charge of the rectification and charging of the power-to-the-wheels battery.


You think that's a flaw? You should see what happens to the people in the back seats when the battery fails during a car fire and the powered door lock will no longer open.

https://insideevs.com/news/507202/how-e ... emergency/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420847

Postby BobbyD » June 20th, 2021, 6:45 am

Starlink dishes go into “thermal shutdown” once they hit 122° Fahrenheit

Man watered dish to cool it down but overheating knocked it offline for 7 hours.


- https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... r-7-hours/

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Re: Musk endeavours

#420935

Postby murraypaul » June 20th, 2021, 2:01 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Sure these box makers sell a lot of cars, but in no way are they 'major motor manufacturers' in the way that the house hold names of F1 are.


You say some odd things sometimes, but this has to be the silliest.

Alfa Romeo is more of a major motor manufacture than VW or Nissan?
Aston Martin more than GM or Ford?
Haas (Dallara) and AlfaTauri are household names?

You said something wrong, just back down rather than keep digging.


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