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Inflation

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1nvest
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Re: Inflation

#445079

Postby 1nvest » September 24th, 2021, 3:57 pm

1970 inflation also saw 3 day weeks etc. The present situation is demand driven inflation, that should also see wage rises + overtime benefits that offset price rises (due to lower levels of low wage migrant workers otherwise forcing down Brits wages). The extent of such low wage migration (ex-Soviet) workers has all too clearly been revealed.

The UK debt is comfortable. Looks high, was mostly just nationalised (BoE printed to buy gilts whilst the treasury created more longer term/lower cost debt). In inflation adjusted terms/scale the debt is lower now than in 2007 pre financial crisis and also more domestically held (domestic debt isn't a issue, whilst large-scale holding of domestic debt is big issue. Japan for instance has massively high levels of debt but where the BoJ pretty much buys up all of that debt such that its a non-issue).

In contrast the EU will continue to struggle and relatively decline, increasingly even more socialist and even Putin has said that the EU is like the former USSR but even worse and look where that led. The UK as a EU puppet, in the Eurozone corridors, was poorly placed that drove down living standards. Freed from that the UK might be expected to better prosper and without having to subsidise its EU competitors.

Transition and where that transition so far has been nowhere as bad as Remainers had predicted so one has to conclude that the government is managing it well. I suspect key in mind is to start seeing the benefits six months before the May 2024 next General Election.

1nvest
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Re: Inflation

#445087

Postby 1nvest » September 24th, 2021, 4:14 pm

This article https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/one-s ... 26995.html suggests 18% shortages of goods, 4% medicines. Relatively mild and where absence to meet demand is seemingly mostly being driven by transportation (lack of domestic lorry drivers). In the absence of goods so the tendency is for some to fill that hole, source from alternatives (to EU). As such likely more a case of a inflation spike rather than protraction. Collectively more than half a million job/training opportunities on a conservative measure, along with upside wage increases potential.

I'd guess that within a year we might be out of having to use the likes of QE to direct the economy and back into more 'normal' methods/measures such as 2% interest rates and inflation (BoE remit target).

odysseus2000
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Re: Inflation

#445103

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2021, 5:20 pm

invest
The present situation is demand driven inflation


Not sure how it can be demand driven as demand has changed. The current inflation looks like supply constraint to me and that can have effects that last much longer than a blip as such distortions often lead to bankruptcies and break downs in parts of the economy that can take years to repair as skilled folk leave and replacements take a long time to train up and in the meantime prices stay high and supplies stay low.

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SteMiS
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Re: Inflation

#445106

Postby SteMiS » September 24th, 2021, 5:27 pm

1nvest wrote:1970 inflation also saw 3 day weeks etc. The present situation is demand driven inflation, that should also see wage rises + overtime benefits that offset price rises (due to lower levels of low wage migrant workers otherwise forcing down Brits wages). The extent of such low wage migration (ex-Soviet) workers has all too clearly been revealed.

The UK debt is comfortable. Looks high, was mostly just nationalised (BoE printed to buy gilts whilst the treasury created more longer term/lower cost debt). In inflation adjusted terms/scale the debt is lower now than in 2007 pre financial crisis and also more domestically held (domestic debt isn't a issue, whilst large-scale holding of domestic debt is big issue. Japan for instance has massively high levels of debt but where the BoJ pretty much buys up all of that debt such that its a non-issue).

In contrast the EU will continue to struggle and relatively decline, increasingly even more socialist and even Putin has said that the EU is like the former USSR but even worse and look where that led. The UK as a EU puppet, in the Eurozone corridors, was poorly placed that drove down living standards. Freed from that the UK might be expected to better prosper and without having to subsidise its EU competitors.

Transition and where that transition so far has been nowhere as bad as Remainers had predicted so one has to conclude that the government is managing it well. I suspect key in mind is to start seeing the benefits six months before the May 2024 next General Election.

Er, three day week was actually caused by industrial action by miners;
if wages rise to offset price increases then all that has happened is that we've set inflation off;
no evidence that migration generally suppressed wages;
you seem to be fine with UK printing money but, I recall, have previously criticised EU for printing money;
not sure Putin is someone I want to be taking advice from about how to run a country;
UK wasn't a puppet in the EU (and wasn't in the Eurozone)
UK didn't subsidise EU competitors
Transition has been far worse than Leavers promised and is approaching the worst predictions of Remainers
Leavers are struggling to even articulate economic benefits of Brexit

Apart from that I agree with what you say....

In further news, press are reporting that government are preparing to relax immigration rules on HGV drivers

https://www.ft.com/content/8335166f-901 ... 554c3b40b2

odysseus2000
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Re: Inflation

#445115

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2021, 5:50 pm

ursaminortaur
Much of that export trade to the EU (such as the fresh sea foods and other food sectors that you mention) couldn't profitably be redirected to other overseas markets so will remain as trade between the UK and EU.


I am not sure that is true. Sure the seafood may be difficult to export in the same way but there are all manner of creative possibilities that could be used to export frozen or processed foods etc.

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ursaminortaur
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Re: Inflation

#445141

Postby ursaminortaur » September 24th, 2021, 8:13 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
ursaminortaur
Much of that export trade to the EU (such as the fresh sea foods and other food sectors that you mention) couldn't profitably be redirected to other overseas markets so will remain as trade between the UK and EU.


I am not sure that is true. Sure the seafood may be difficult to export in the same way but there are all manner of creative possibilities that could be used to export frozen or processed foods etc.

Regards,


Frozen food attracts far poorer prices than fresh food - note I said "couldn't profitably be redirected".

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Re: Inflation

#445166

Postby odysseus2000 » September 24th, 2021, 11:06 pm

Australia manages to export chilled and frozen meat all over the world. I doubt they are doing this as a charity:

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/export/c ... statistics

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ursaminortaur
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Re: Inflation

#445247

Postby ursaminortaur » September 25th, 2021, 12:41 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Australia manages to export chilled and frozen meat all over the world. I doubt they are doing this as a charity:

https://www.agriculture.gov.au/export/c ... statistics

Regards,


It depends what food products you are talking about. For instance live shellfish exports are one of the most profitable sea food export businesses in the UK but depend upon speed of delivery.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-scotland-fishing-industry-divide/

The 21-year-old grew up on the nearby island of Bute, where he started fishing during school holidays at 13. Today he catches prawns using creels, a traditional technique that uses a wire basket and a salted herring head to lure the shellfish inside.

"The French and Spanish pay a good price for these," he explains, holding up a medium-sized prawn. "We don't really eat them in Scotland." But key to the business is speed. The shellfish must make it to market alive to command a decent price. So any border delay could be disastrous.

"Even a short delay means fishermen don’t get paid" — Alistair Sinclair, national coordinator of the Scottish Creel Fishermen’s Federation

Scotland lies at the heart of the U.K.'s fishing power: Scottish vessels landed 65 percent of British catches in 2016 — 453,000 metric tons of fish and seafood, valued at £557 million.

Staples such as haddock, herring and mackerel make up a large portion of the Scottish landings, but shellfish is one of the most lucrative catches. The Scottish shellfish fleet brought ashore 14 percent of the fish and seafood haul in 2016 but it accounted for £166 million, or 30 percent of the catch value.

1nvest
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Re: Inflation

#445296

Postby 1nvest » September 25th, 2021, 4:40 pm

SteMiS wrote:you seem to be fine with UK printing money but, I recall, have previously criticised EU for printing money

Germany made massive irresponsible bets (debts) that when backfired (2008/9 financial crisis) were transferred/swapped over to the ECB (rest of EU). Had those bets paid off then Germany would have retained the benefits. Germany utilising the EU in such manner provides a unfair competitive advantage that I and others disagree with. But only to be expected, the EU has always been a predominately long term political agenda of German domination of Europe and beyond. The seeds of the EU were already being sown during the decline/collapse of Nazi Germany. A EU without Germany would be far far better, as would it had Germany been totally divided up and eliminated post WW2.

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Re: Inflation

#445302

Postby Newroad » September 25th, 2021, 5:06 pm

Hi 1nvest.

I suspect your post is heavily influenced by personal considerations - perhaps understandably so. But nevertheless, without context (or explicit rationale) it is also deserving of (at least partial) challenge.

Yes, the German banks have been at points in the 21st Century been in serious trouble from exposure to various debtors (e.g. Greece). Further, the Germany industry has benefited from the relatively weak Euro as compared to what an ongoing Deutsch Mark might have floated at. However, my understanding is that Germany is a massive net creditor to the ECB/EU, so in effect, it was bailing out itself (or its own banks) if looked at in the round. I suspect the Germans at some point will be forced to realise a massive haircut on this net credit which has been extended.

Your later point is probably worthy of a standalone post in another forum - but might risk site rules and be unable to proceed here. Many things, some good, some bad, happened during and can perhaps be attributed to the collapse Nazi Germany, e.g. it sowed the seeds of the US Rocket programme. I find it hard to see a direct correlation with the EU, other than perhaps via the Marshall Plan, which seems tenuous to me - and as we know, the UK was the biggest net beneficiary anyway! Further, Charles deGaulle was hardly pro EU or similar. Finally, if you humiliate a losing people, e.g. Treaty of Versailles, you are more likely to get the next Nazi like problem - better to, if you can (see Japan as a similar example) try to reintegrate them into the international order.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Inflation

#445304

Postby SteMiS » September 25th, 2021, 5:14 pm

1nvest wrote:
SteMiS wrote:you seem to be fine with UK printing money but, I recall, have previously criticised EU for printing money

Germany made massive irresponsible bets (debts) that when backfired (2008/9 financial crisis) were transferred/swapped over to the ECB (rest of EU). Had those bets paid off then Germany would have retained the benefits. Germany utilising the EU in such manner provides a unfair competitive advantage that I and others disagree with. But only to be expected, the EU has always been a predominately long term political agenda of German domination of Europe and beyond. The seeds of the EU were already being sown during the decline/collapse of Nazi Germany. A EU without Germany would be far far better, as would it had Germany been totally divided up and eliminated post WW2.

Ah, back to the old German domination of the EU, Nazis, second world war conspiracy I see... Like an old comfort blanket

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Re: Inflation

#445308

Postby scrumpyjack » September 25th, 2021, 5:57 pm

SteMiS wrote:
1nvest wrote:
SteMiS wrote:you seem to be fine with UK printing money but, I recall, have previously criticised EU for printing money

Germany made massive irresponsible bets (debts) that when backfired (2008/9 financial crisis) were transferred/swapped over to the ECB (rest of EU). Had those bets paid off then Germany would have retained the benefits. Germany utilising the EU in such manner provides a unfair competitive advantage that I and others disagree with. But only to be expected, the EU has always been a predominately long term political agenda of German domination of Europe and beyond. The seeds of the EU were already being sown during the decline/collapse of Nazi Germany. A EU without Germany would be far far better, as would it had Germany been totally divided up and eliminated post WW2.

Ah, back to the old German domination of the EU, Nazis, second world war conspiracy I see... Like an old comfort blanket


The EU was essentially a French creation, by De Gaulle, with the aims of pulling together Germany and France to reduce the chances of another world war and to get Germany to pay for French agriculture (the CAP). It is absurd to dream up Nazi conspiracy theories though of course 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' so it was inevitable that Germany would end up with the most influence in it.

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Re: Inflation

#445310

Postby Newroad » September 25th, 2021, 6:07 pm

Hi ScrumpyJack.

It's perhaps a subtle point, that whilst deGaulle wanted to end the repeated Franco-German wars (which the Elysee Treaty went towards) he wasn't a fan of a move towards a USE ("United States of Europe") or similar but rather preferred that each nation remain a sovereign state.

Regards, Newroad

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Re: Inflation

#445332

Postby SteMiS » September 25th, 2021, 9:43 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
1nvest wrote:Germany made massive irresponsible bets (debts) that when backfired (2008/9 financial crisis) were transferred/swapped over to the ECB (rest of EU). Had those bets paid off then Germany would have retained the benefits. Germany utilising the EU in such manner provides a unfair competitive advantage that I and others disagree with. But only to be expected, the EU has always been a predominately long term political agenda of German domination of Europe and beyond. The seeds of the EU were already being sown during the decline/collapse of Nazi Germany. A EU without Germany would be far far better, as would it had Germany been totally divided up and eliminated post WW2.

Ah, back to the old German domination of the EU, Nazis, second world war conspiracy I see... Like an old comfort blanket


The EU was essentially a French creation, by De Gaulle, with the aims of pulling together Germany and France to reduce the chances of another world war and to get Germany to pay for French agriculture (the CAP). It is absurd to dream up Nazi conspiracy theories though of course 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' so it was inevitable that Germany would end up with the most influence in it.

But according to Brexiteers the UK funded the EU but had little or no influence. Seems a little contradictory...

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Re: Inflation

#445344

Postby odysseus2000 » September 25th, 2021, 11:33 pm

SteMIS
But according to Brexiteers the UK funded the EU but had little or no influence. Seems a little contradictory...


We all fund Westminster and all the UK MP's, but only get a chance to change them every 5 years or so with little or no influence most of the time.

So if someones first election is when they are 20, and they live to 100, with elections every 5 years, they only get 80/5 +1 = 17 opportunities to change the politicians and on average will only do so about 8.5 times as other times they will get someone they didn't vote for. In some constituencies which always vote one way, they may never change anything.

Regards,

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Re: Inflation

#445438

Postby 1nvest » September 26th, 2021, 4:20 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:
SteMiS wrote:
1nvest wrote:Germany made massive irresponsible bets (debts) that when backfired (2008/9 financial crisis) were transferred/swapped over to the ECB (rest of EU). Had those bets paid off then Germany would have retained the benefits. Germany utilising the EU in such manner provides a unfair competitive advantage that I and others disagree with. But only to be expected, the EU has always been a predominately long term political agenda of German domination of Europe and beyond. The seeds of the EU were already being sown during the decline/collapse of Nazi Germany. A EU without Germany would be far far better, as would it had Germany been totally divided up and eliminated post WW2.

Ah, back to the old German domination of the EU, Nazis, second world war conspiracy I see... Like an old comfort blanket


The EU was essentially a French creation, by De Gaulle, with the aims of pulling together Germany and France to reduce the chances of another world war and to get Germany to pay for French agriculture (the CAP). It is absurd to dream up Nazi conspiracy theories though of course 'he who pays the piper calls the tune' so it was inevitable that Germany would end up with the most influence in it.

... if you believe in the possible debunking re-writing of history.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/47 ... s-new-book

Liberal Democrat opponents suggest that to be "peddling outlandish myths". Oddly a view by those who don't respect the referendum/democracy and as such are more like Nazi doctrine!

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Re: Inflation

#445447

Postby pje16 » September 26th, 2021, 5:23 pm

1nvest wrote:... if you believe in the possible debunking re-writing of history.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/47 ... s-new-book

Liberal Democrat opponents suggest that to be "peddling outlandish myths". Oddly a view by those who don't respect the referendum/democracy and as such are more like Nazi doctrine!

Never believe a word in the DE :roll:


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