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Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

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doug2500
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Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462848

Postby doug2500 » December 3rd, 2021, 11:18 am

Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462852

Postby Dod101 » December 3rd, 2021, 11:45 am

doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462859

Postby RockRabbit » December 3rd, 2021, 12:18 pm

Dod101 wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod


Hope this one doesn't turn out to be true!

"US inflation goes above 15% on wage-price spiral"

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462860

Postby absolutezero » December 3rd, 2021, 12:19 pm

Dod101 wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod

Agreed.
Greenery and Net Zero is in for a nasty collision with reality. Expect them both to be dumped.

The rest I don't think are 'outrageous' predictions at all. Some are quite likely, in my view. Maybe not the India joining the GCC one though.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462863

Postby doug2500 » December 3rd, 2021, 12:29 pm

Some headlines at least might even be probable:

    US constitutional crisis

    Pension superfund

I'm sure I remember reading the Scottish gov has already floated the idea of pensions funding priorities. Trust them to be ahead of the game when it comes to crap ideas.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462881

Postby PeterGray » December 3rd, 2021, 1:51 pm

Greenery and Net Zero is in for a nasty collision with reality. Expect them both to be dumped.

Unfortunately , global warming is a nasty collision with reality too! What to do about countries/cities under water, failed crops and mass migration on a scale not imagined yet will be a pretty nasty collision with reality. It will make current channel boat trips and post Brexit empty shelves look pretty trivial.

I don't disagree that targets will be missed and HCs will go on being used/needed for sometime, but the pressure to hit targets and for more serious steps is only going to get stronger and stronger. Maybe the UK will wait till the City and central London starts flooding on a regular basis before really waking up, but hopefully not.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462895

Postby doug2500 » December 3rd, 2021, 2:34 pm

PeterGray wrote:Greenery and Net Zero is in for a nasty collision with reality. Expect them both to be dumped.

Unfortunately , global warming is a nasty collision with reality too! What to do about countries/cities under water, failed crops and mass migration on a scale not imagined yet will be a pretty nasty collision with reality. It will make current channel boat trips and post Brexit empty shelves look pretty trivial.

I don't disagree that targets will be missed and HCs will go on being used/needed for sometime, but the pressure to hit targets and for more serious steps is only going to get stronger and stronger. Maybe the UK will wait till the City and central London starts flooding on a regular basis before really waking up, but hopefully not.


I don't disagree but I just don't understand how we can get from here to where we want to be without consuming vast quantities of fossil fuels to make the stuff we need to reduce our carbon footprint. Even a hydrogen scientist needs to drive to work in an electric car which needs steel and batteries etc which all need fuel to produce. Same for bus, laboratory etc. I'm not defeatist I hope, just being pragmatic. We're a long way from net zero and will need a lot of consumption to get there, wouldn't it be better for us to control it rather than outsource everything to other countries (thinking of cambo and coal mines)

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462896

Postby doug2500 » December 3rd, 2021, 2:43 pm

This seems to sum up my thoughts quite well, also from trustnet:

The big energy providers are going to be part of the solution and will allow the world to transition to decarbonised.

The materials side also plays into the decarbonisation theme as for the world to decarbonise you will need a vast amount more industrial metals and the only companies that provide this are the big materials companies. We think there is a huge growth story there as all of the major countries in the world try to decarbonise at the same time.


https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284332/ ... inal-straw

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462950

Postby tjh290633 » December 3rd, 2021, 5:38 pm

Dod101 wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod

Fossil fuels are not just for transport and domestic heating, they are essential raw materials for production of much of plastic materials essential for life, these days. How would you get your PPE, for example?

TJH

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#462983

Postby Dod101 » December 3rd, 2021, 8:41 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod

Fossil fuels are not just for transport and domestic heating, they are essential raw materials for production of much of plastic materials essential for life, these days. How would you get your PPE, for example?

TJH


Well I should have thought that we can do without a lot of plastics these days, although I do not know where specifically PPE is used. It seems to me that fossil fuels for domestic heating and transport may be more critical uses for them. But what do I know?

Dod

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463011

Postby odysseus2000 » December 4th, 2021, 1:55 am

Well I should have thought that we can do without a lot of plastics these days, although I do not know where specifically PPE is used. It seems to me that fossil fuels for domestic heating and transport may be more critical uses for them. But what do I know?

Dod


I am seeing more and more plastics being used for jobs that once only steel would be suitable for. I recently bought a new fork for my stable and it is entirely made out of "near unbreakable" plastic and so far has proven to be very durable, light and good. In Wickes I noticed that shovels are now being sold with plastic bottoms, lighter and presumably durable enough for a shovel, but I doubt suitable for a digging spade.

Sandy Munroe recently described some medical equipment that he and his team had developed. The device needed to be hygienic, low cost etc and was competing with devices made of stainless steel. Munroe designed a plastic version with a plastic that was hygienic and the whole thing was so much cheaper that the company literally caused users of this technology to stop all purchases of competing products, giving the whole market to what Munroe designed.

As far as I can see more and more products are being made of plastics due to lower cost, easier manufacturing and in some cases good electrical properties, it being impossible to get a mains shock via a plastic box whereas metal is always a potential shock problem. This is likely more important as electric vehicles with high voltages become more common.

As of now it looks to me that hydrocarbons for domestic transport are at the top of a big hill about to decline into obsolescence. I believe all new houses are now built without a gas connection, relying instead on electrical heating coupled with good insulation. A owner of a new property near me noted that their house is so well insulated that a brief (30 minute) use of a fan heater is enough for the night. Seems ridiculous to me, but both my houses were built without insulation and are very difficult to get warm and once the heating is off, cool very quickly.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463030

Postby PeterGray » December 4th, 2021, 10:04 am

Fossil fuels are not just for transport and domestic heating

Not really. Fossil fuels are fuels. Some oil and gas are also important feedstocks (which may become less important in the future), though much less than is used as fuel.

However, the second is no reason not to act on the first. Burning HCs as fuel releases CO2. That is not true in the same way when used as feedstocks. Some may be released, but a lot may be captured, it will depend on the process.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463032

Postby odysseus2000 » December 4th, 2021, 10:41 am

PeterGray wrote:Fossil fuels are not just for transport and domestic heating

Not really. Fossil fuels are fuels. Some oil and gas are also important feedstocks (which may become less important in the future), though much less than is used as fuel.

However, the second is no reason not to act on the first. Burning HCs as fuel releases CO2. That is not true in the same way when used as feedstocks. Some may be released, but a lot may be captured, it will depend on the process.


One of the silly issues is that a lot of the plastic is still not be recycled although much more is, there is still, world wide, a lot of plastic going into landfill,

Introduction of more recycling would reduce the need for oil extraction and make the world a better place.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463035

Postby Mike4 » December 4th, 2021, 10:59 am

RockRabbit wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
doug2500 wrote:Interesting article, mainly because I didn't find some of them too outrageous. I mean they're not probable but some don't take much stretch of the imagination, or could certainly have some element of truth while not being as extreme as painted.

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13284196/ ... s-for-2022

I could certainly imagine a growing realisation that we need fossil fuels for quite a while, facebook becoming less relevant (hence the rise of meta which may not take off), more market disruption enabled by the internet, a new space race and medical improvements continuing to put stress on systems. They don't even mention trouble in Eastern Europe, maybe that's too likely?


The fossil fuel position is a pretty safe prediction. It will slip whatever anyone officially targets I have no doubt. There is only so much that populations will accept by way of increased costs and the electricity supplier debacle in the UK is showing that already.

Dod


Hope this one doesn't turn out to be true!

"US inflation goes above 15% on wage-price spiral"



I think there is every chance of it coming to pass, although I had 10% as my figure in mind by the end of 2022. 15% in 2023.

Similarly with FaceBook, a business built wholly on gathering data about its users. Personal data privacy has concerned me for years to the extent I just don't use it but I think the greater public is just beginning to object too. Might take another five years for Facebook to properly 'faceplant' (as they put it), rather than it happening in 2022 IMO.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463170

Postby BT63 » December 4th, 2021, 10:02 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:


Hope this one doesn't turn out to be true!

"US inflation goes above 15% on wage-price spiral"



I think there is every chance of it coming to pass, although I had 10% as my figure in mind by the end of 2022. 15% in 2023.


Last week, even the Fed chairman talked about inflation no longer being merely 'transitory'.

With the huge amount of magic money the Fed poured into the system, several percent annual inflation persisting for several years wouldn't be at all surprising.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463171

Postby Dod101 » December 4th, 2021, 10:05 pm

BT63 wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:


Hope this one doesn't turn out to be true!

"US inflation goes above 15% on wage-price spiral"



I think there is every chance of it coming to pass, although I had 10% as my figure in mind by the end of 2022. 15% in 2023.


Last week, even the Fed chairman talked about inflation no longer being merely 'transitory'.

With the huge amount of magic money the Fed poured into the system, several percent annual inflation persisting for several years wouldn't be at all surprising.


I did not write the quote attributed to me not that it matters much.

Dod

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#463177

Postby Mike4 » December 4th, 2021, 10:30 pm

Dod101 wrote:I did not write the quote attributed to me not that it matters much.

Dod


And it was not me originally misquoting you despite the malformed quotes of me doing exactly that!

Ah the traps in editing nested quotes.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#464441

Postby murraypaul » December 9th, 2021, 9:30 am

odysseus2000 wrote:I believe all new houses are now built without a gas connection, relying instead on electrical heating coupled with good insulation.

Not in England they aren't.
400+ house development near me, all with gas central heating.

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#464726

Postby odysseus2000 » December 10th, 2021, 12:26 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:I believe all new houses are now built without a gas connection, relying instead on electrical heating coupled with good insulation.

Not in England they aren't.
400+ house development near me, all with gas central heating.


Thank you, I was wrong. The ban seems to be 2025 on:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/spring-s ... l-14129597

but whether this is now law I can't so far determine.

Regards,

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Re: Saxo Bank’s 10 ‘outrageous’ market predictions for 2022

#464756

Postby TUK020 » December 10th, 2021, 2:30 pm

murraypaul wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:I believe all new houses are now built without a gas connection, relying instead on electrical heating coupled with good insulation.

Not in England they aren't.
400+ house development near me, all with gas central heating.

It gets worse that that.
That new housing estate being built will be provisioned with a substation sized to support a traditional electricity consumption pattern (average of 3kW per house?). The new transformer being put in won't have sufficient capacity to support significant adoption of heatpumps or electric vehicles. When significant adoption does occur, the whole thing will fall over and need major works to replace/reinforce the electricity supply.
Joined up regulation? Not.


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