Howard wrote:Tesla are so behind the curve in China. One has to be very optimistic to think they can ramp up from selling a few hundred cars to gaining enough market share to be more than a niche player.
Is there much demand for Tesla models in the Chinese market? Enough to justify spending billions on a plant?
regards
Howard
My observation is that I see more Teslas in China than I do in the UK. There are a few reasons for this in my opinion:
1. Higher levels of income inequality in China mean that more Chinese have more disposable income than is commonly realised, i.e. they can afford it.
2. If you have wealth, amongst a certain cadre they like to flaunt it. I also see a lot of Phaetons and suchlike which you don't see much in UK.
3. There is a strong social pressure in China to go green. The pollution is very in-your-face, indeed in everybodies face. Buying Tesla is a way to show your concern whilst also satisfying 2.
4. It has certain usability advantages, such as access to roads on all days in all cities, not just on days restricted to your permit, better access to getting a permit, etc. This scene keeps on changing and is complex, but in China owning a car is only the first part of the battle. Being allowed to use it is the second part.
So in answer to the question, "
is there enough demand in China ?", I'd say absolutely there is enough demand. Given that China outbuilds the rest of the world (approx 2:1 on various numbers I've scanned) for EVs it also makes sense for Tesla to put a factory inside China. There are of course risks, but on balance it seems a sensible move. It is notable that CN gov are going to allow Tesla to have 100% control of their Chinese subsidiary.
People who think that China is some rinky dinky copycat third world country really don't get it. I can compare a Chinese industrial rustbelt city like (say) Shenyang favourably with a UK industrial city like (say) Manchester. Both have problems, but one sees the future with optimism.
Oh and a fair chunk of the plant set up costs will be borne either by suppliers, or by government soft money.
regards, dspp