The Lemon Fool

Howard wrote:Ody, As you have written above, the fleet market could be an important entry factor for the model 3 if it proves to have a good range and very low running costs. But rain running down executives' sleeves as they get into the car in a typical European winter may be a negative sales factor.

Is the water cascading into the boot and from the roof into the car a minor problem easily changed by re-engineering the body shell for wetter climates?

It's a feature. You hang a Tesla branded soap on a rope from the rear view and your time poor exec can grab a shower on the way to work. Drainage holes in the floor might cause battery issues though.

I had a look at our two German cars. They both have a slight ridge at the edge of the roof which stops all but very heavy rain running over the side of the roof. Looking at videos of the Tesla, the problem appears to be the flush fit of the glass roof which allows the rain to run off sideways.

Obviously the answer is to always keep the window closed in the rain. But it could be annoying if every time the door is opened in the wet there is a deluge of water onto the seat.

The boot issue looks more serious. I've never owned a car which let volumes of water run in off the back window. Is this a car designed for sunshine only?

regards

Howard

Yes it does seem to have a bit of Californian optimism about the design

Howard wrote:The boot issue looks more serious. I've never owned a car which let volumes of water run in off the back window. Is this a car designed for sunshine only?

regards

Howard

California accounts for almost half of all Tesla Model 3 sales
Electric carmaker may be one of U.S.' most valuable, but most of its vehicles are bought in its home state

- https://driving.ca/tesla/auto-news/news ... el-3-sales

I'm sure it'll work well in Cardiff though...

Howard wrote:dspp and Ody

Hat tip to you dspp - I couldn't resist looking up "Tesla 3 in the rain".

So has Tesla got engineering issues as well as marketing concerns?

The problems exposed in videos by customers whose cars are taking in water both in the boot and off the roof into the car don't bode well for sales in wetter European climes.

See this video from 2 mins 50 seconds https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... vmmR3P58gs as an example of a number of videos appearing recently.

Ody, As you have written above, the fleet market could be an important entry factor for the model 3 if it proves to have a good range and very low running costs. But rain running down executives' sleeves as they get into the car in a typical European winter may be a negative sales factor.

Is the water cascading into the boot and from the roof into the car a minor problem easily changed by re-engineering the body shell for wetter climates?

We should soon soon if it is a problem for owners if we have a typical wet summer!

regards

Howard

Ha ha, how many times have I been bitten by things that I didn't worry about whilst all the stuff I did worry about was fine.

Not sure how one could address the issues he raised as one does need to open doors & boots in the rain, nor how rain intense the issues are.

Really would need to see the issue in more typical normal rain & compare to other motors. I have similar issues with my 19 year old Mercedes in heavy rain, but mostly it's not a problem. Condensation from the sun roof is another issue in my Mercedes after frost.

So I would file this as more click bait unless there are more detailed tests & comparisons. Had he not spent an age showing how the rain comes through open windows I would have more respected his analysis.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Really would need to see the issue in more typical normal rain & compare to other motors. I have similar issues with my 19 year old Mercedes in heavy rain, but mostly it's not a problem. Condensation from the sun roof is another issue in my Mercedes after frost.

I'm not entirely sure your tolerance of faults in your 19 year old Mercedes is going to be exactly mirrored by people who've just spent quite a few tens of thousands of pounds on a brand new status vehicle.

odysseus2000 wrote:So I would file this as more click bait unless there are more detailed tests & comparisons. Had he not spent an age showing how the rain comes through open windows I would have more respected his analysis.

You continue to surprise me in your equal handed and unbiased approach to these issues.

I had a twenty year old ML320 Merc for doing a few runs to the tip. It cost £1000, I ran it for a year and sold it for £800. The condensation in the winter was terrible but it was a 20 year old knacker even so it did not let rainwater pour in like that Tesla.

I have a brand new VW Golf, bottom of the range, it is completely dry inside in all weathers. I would expect nothing less.

John

Ody

Can I compliment you as the originator. This thread has made me much more aware of vehicle pollution issues.

This news is somewhat surprising:

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-ne ... en-sharan/

I'm guessing Addison Lee have fully researched future pollution control issues in London. They seem confident that their vehicles will be low emission.
Presumably they will only keep their cars on the fleet for two or three years and Euro 6 standard vehicles now produce much less NOX and CO2.

An order for 1,200 diesels isn't a bad vote of confidence for VW! There's life in ICE vehicles yet!

And it is interesting that the design of the rear doors is a key factor in the fleet purchase decision. Let's hope they don't let the rain in .

regards

Howard

Howard wrote:Ody

Can I compliment you as the originator. This thread has made me much more aware of vehicle pollution issues.

This news is somewhat surprising:

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-ne ... en-sharan/

I'm guessing Addison Lee have fully researched future pollution control issues in London. They seem confident that their vehicles will be low emission.
Presumably they will only keep their cars on the fleet for two or three years and Euro 6 standard vehicles now produce much less NOX and CO2.

An order for 1,200 diesels isn't a bad vote of confidence for VW! There's life in ICE vehicles yet!

And it is interesting that the design of the rear doors is a key factor in the fleet purchase decision. Let's hope they don't let the rain in .

regards

Howard

Hi Howard,

Thank you for your kind complement.

To me the news is exactly what I expect and why things are difficult for legacy.

Addison Lee know that emission limits are coming but feel they can make a good turn in the short term on some new diesels which will have the urea supplement that dramatically cuts diesel emissions at relatively low cost as its a low cost consumable and cars won't run with out it and so they can get along with current legislation.

For VW it creates a dilemma as if then are to run with battery they have to begin to scale back ICE, but when they are getting orders like this the conservative board members will argue that there is no need to rush to battery and they will vote against short term battery capex. The arguments for delaying battery is also strong if one believes that the solid state glass batteries are likely to be commercial. I have no idea about that. Prof. Goodenough who invented them has a patent application in progress for them and they are going through peer review analysis, but as far as I can tell no one is making them on a commercial scale. I find this very puzzling as if they are as good as Prof. Goodenough claims as do several others more familiar with them than I am, why is someone not licensed to make them?

I expect legacy auto to be caught in this ICE v battery dilemma and to do as little as possible and in the meantime I expect Tesla and the Chinese to get bigger and the politicians to decide that ICE have to go leaving VW scrambling to scale up batteries.

Meanwhile if these solid state batteries are any good one can expect Tesla and the Chinese to start using them which if the lab. numbers are anything like what one will see in practice will lead to something like double the range of a Tesla and make ICE obsolete. I am reasonably confident that Tesla and the Chinese know much more about these batteries than anyone making me a little nervous that they may not be as practical as Goodenough suggests, or perhaps there are other technologies that are better which some of them are working towards.

It is an interesting area, one where there is a strong marketing and mind set battle along with a technical one of information and mis-information being banded about.

Also is all the potential of self drive and whether that will be better than human drivers.

Personally I expect that within 5 years no one will be buying new ICE vehicles in the prosperous Western economies. I am also minded to believe that robotic driving will by then be replacing human drivers and that the politicians and insurance companies will so like the resultant reduction in costs and human death that the prosperous nations will rapidly move to robotic driving.

In the grand scheme of things I expect the potential water ingress into Model 3 to be an minor foot note that will quickly be forgotten. Remember when we had the first of several Apple-gate phone scares and technical troubles and everyone said no one would buy iPhones, they would all buy Samsung and that seemed plausible but the fires caused by Samsung failing batteries proved real whereas Apple Antenna gate etc proved to be fleeting things that the media blew up to ridiculous levels and then forgot about.

Regards,

redsturgeon wrote:I had a twenty year old ML320 Merc for doing a few runs to the tip. It cost £1000, I ran it for a year and sold it for £800. The condensation in the winter was terrible but it was a 20 year old knacker even so it did not let rainwater pour in like that Tesla.

I have a brand new VW Golf, bottom of the range, it is completely dry inside in all weathers. I would expect nothing less.

John

If you wind down all the windows does the rain still not come in?

The Tesla model 3 did seem to be quite dry inside when the windows were wound up and the doors shut.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:To me the news is exactly what I expect and why things are difficult for legacy.

Addison Lee know that emission limits are coming but feel they can make a good turn in the short term on some new diesels which will have the urea supplement that dramatically cuts diesel emissions at relatively low cost as its a low cost consumable and cars won't run with out it and so they can get along with current legislation.

For VW it creates a dilemma as if then are to run with battery they have to begin to scale back ICE, but when they are getting orders like this the conservative board members will argue that there is no need to rush to battery and they will vote against short term battery capex.

Orders for millions of pounds worth of cars that they are actually capable of delivering... if these are VW's problems then I think my money is safe...

VW have already committed tens of billions to battery purchases alone, announced that they will have 16 electric car factories in 2022, and announced a move in to batteries and charging stations. If you think that the company is in any way divided over electrification you are deluding yourself.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:To me the news is exactly what I expect and why things are difficult for legacy.

Addison Lee know that emission limits are coming but feel they can make a good turn in the short term on some new diesels which will have the urea supplement that dramatically cuts diesel emissions at relatively low cost as its a low cost consumable and cars won't run with out it and so they can get along with current legislation.

For VW it creates a dilemma as if then are to run with battery they have to begin to scale back ICE, but when they are getting orders like this the conservative board members will argue that there is no need to rush to battery and they will vote against short term battery capex.

Orders for millions of pounds worth of cars that they are actually capable of delivering... if these are VW's problems then I think my money is safe...

VW have already committed tens of billions to battery purchases alone, announced that they will have 16 electric car factories in 2022, and announced a move in to batteries and charging stations. If you think that the company is in any way divided over electrification you are deluding yourself.

VW have said all kinds of things.

Are they using lithium ion or waiting for solid state batteries or what?

For now it's all marketing.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:To me the news is exactly what I expect and why things are difficult for legacy.

Addison Lee know that emission limits are coming but feel they can make a good turn in the short term on some new diesels which will have the urea supplement that dramatically cuts diesel emissions at relatively low cost as its a low cost consumable and cars won't run with out it and so they can get along with current legislation.

For VW it creates a dilemma as if then are to run with battery they have to begin to scale back ICE, but when they are getting orders like this the conservative board members will argue that there is no need to rush to battery and they will vote against short term battery capex.

Orders for millions of pounds worth of cars that they are actually capable of delivering... if these are VW's problems then I think my money is safe...

VW have already committed tens of billions to battery purchases alone, announced that they will have 16 electric car factories in 2022, and announced a move in to batteries and charging stations. If you think that the company is in any way divided over electrification you are deluding yourself.

VW have said all kinds of things.

Are they using lithium ion or waiting for solid state batteries or what?

For now it's all marketing.

Regards,

Signed orders announced at AGM... To put it in Tesla terms it's like Musk tweeting something, only with proper legal vetting.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:
Orders for millions of pounds worth of cars that they are actually capable of delivering... if these are VW's problems then I think my money is safe...

VW have already committed tens of billions to battery purchases alone, announced that they will have 16 electric car factories in 2022, and announced a move in to batteries and charging stations. If you think that the company is in any way divided over electrification you are deluding yourself.

VW have said all kinds of things.

Are they using lithium ion or waiting for solid state batteries or what?

For now it's all marketing.

Regards,

Signed orders announced at AGM... To put it in Tesla terms it's like Musk tweeting something, only with proper legal vetting.

So what kind of batteries are they using?

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
VW have said all kinds of things.

Are they using lithium ion or waiting for solid state batteries or what?

For now it's all marketing.

Regards,

Signed orders announced at AGM... To put it in Tesla terms it's like Musk tweeting something, only with proper legal vetting.

So what kind of batteries are they using?

Regards,

You know the answer to this...

The $50 billion worth of batteries they have placed orders for will be Lithium ion.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:
Signed orders announced at AGM... To put it in Tesla terms it's like Musk tweeting something, only with proper legal vetting.

So what kind of batteries are they using?

Regards,

You know the answer to this...

The $50 billion worth of batteries they have placed orders for will be Lithium ion.

So no more talk of solid state batteries?

Have they solved the dendrite formation problems with lithium ion that there proposed charging currents would otherwise create or have they scaled back their charger network power?

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:So no more talk of solid state batteries?

Why on earth would you think that?

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:So no more talk of solid state batteries?

Why on earth would you think that?

Because not so long ago VW and various other makers including Dyson were all over solid state batteries, noting how they would delay battery decisions till solid state battery were available and then have the best battery tech as you pointed out some time ago, but that talk has faded.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:So no more talk of solid state batteries?

Why on earth would you think that?

Because not so long ago VW and various other makers including Dyson were all over solid state batteries, noting how they would delay battery decisions till solid state battery were available and then have the best battery tech as you pointed out some time ago, but that talk has faded.

Regards,

Solid state batteries were mentioned with a target to have them in cars from around 2025, what did you think they were going to use in the meantime?

As to not making a battery decision that was regarding long term investment in plants, hence buying batteries...

VW have decided to open a battery factory coupling cell production with the idea of reusing Li ion batteries in charging stations where the increased energy density of solid state are of reduced benefit and degradation of charge cycle less problematic. VW are not Tesla, they have the resources to do more than one thing at a time, but it does let them dip a foot in the battery acid as part of a coherent overall strategy and without banking the company's future on either the adoption of a soon to be obsolete tech or the premature adoption of a tech which is not yet shop floor ready.

A potentially worrying take on Tesla job cuts:

'How do they expect to run without us?' Tesla accused of axing key staff to cut costs
Electric car firm slashed 7% of workforce this month and ex-employees say more experienced staff were targeted

- https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... fs-company