The Lemon Fool

PeterGray wrote:PS Am I selling my Tesla equity? No way. If folk will put up with this kind of treatment & then smile & be in love with their cars, the brand has something incredible.

Yes, but the problem is that a lot of the incredible stuff the brand has is the Musk generated hype. Great while it lasts for shareholders, but it's the sort of thing that can come to an end quickly. Notice how far he overreacted to being told his "sub" wouldn't work in a real cave rescue. He knows how much he has to protect the hype.

Yes, but when you get the mother of the abused buyer being so complementary to his car, there is something that is difficult to value being generated.

Sure reputations rise and fall, but for now Musk is the Teflon CEO, nothing bad sticks to him and one rarely sees such things and while it lasts there is plenty of upside potential with the shares in my humble opinion.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

PeterGray wrote:PS Am I selling my Tesla equity? No way. If folk will put up with this kind of treatment & then smile & be in love with their cars, the brand has something incredible.

Yes, but the problem is that a lot of the incredible stuff the brand has is the Musk generated hype. Great while it lasts for shareholders, but it's the sort of thing that can come to an end quickly. Notice how far he overreacted to being told his "sub" wouldn't work in a real cave rescue. He knows how much he has to protect the hype.

Yes, but when you get the mother of the abused buyer being so complementary to his car, there is something that is difficult to value being generated.

Sure reputations rise and fall, but for now Musk is the Teflon CEO, nothing bad sticks to him and one rarely sees such things and while it lasts there is plenty of upside potential with the shares in my humble opinion.

Regards,

You think that's good, try boosting sales and increasing margins on the back of a worldwide emissions cheating scandal!

It's fine and dandy as long as there are enough well off fan boys to keep the product moving. If Tesla want to become mainstream though they are going to have to appeal to a less enthused base, who won't be nearly so forgiving. Do that a normal customer and not only won't they touch your brand again but they'll take every opportunity over the next ten years to tell anybody who'll listen exactly how bad your customer services is.

It's also worth noting that for most people this would be a large amount of time and money down the drain. For this guy it's a series of half a million view youtube videos, so for him its actually an earner. He can literally afford to be more forgiving.

BobbyD
You think that's good, try boosting sales and increasing margins on the back of a worldwide emissions cheating scandal!

Creative accounting has its uses.

Regards,

Not doing things by halves!

As the headline to this article suggests, this car park contains nearly a quarter of a billion dollars of Teslas. All bound for Europe?

https://electrek.co/2019/02/20/tesla-ca ... n-picture/

Assuming they all have been ordered by customers, this represents a big positive sales result. If not, the cost of the stock build will negatively affect cash flow.

And, the impression given is that these cars are in addition to around 15,000 cars which are already on ships or have passed through Zeebrugge.

We won't have to wait too long to see the financial implications.

regards

Howard

Howard wrote:Not doing things by halves!

As the headline to this article suggests, this car park contains nearly a quarter of a billion dollars of Teslas. All bound for Europe?

https://electrek.co/2019/02/20/tesla-ca ... n-picture/

Assuming they all have been ordered by customers, this represents a big positive sales result. If not, the cost of the stock build will negatively affect cash flow.

And, the impression given is that these cars are in addition to around 15,000 cars which are already on ships or have passed through Zeebrugge.

We won't have to wait too long to see the financial implications.

regards

Howard

The last Tesla conference call was all about all the ships that would be on the water, all going through the Panama canal all heading to Europe.

Is it any wonder that Honda and Nissan are legging it from the UK before the sales of these and many more from China start to kill their business.

As i have been typing for ages Musk has initiated a revolution that will hurt many of the incumbent car makers. Nissan has been making electric cars and so had the potential to compete, but likely realised how strong the new makers would be and have pulled back to focus on the growing Chinese and Indian market and not leave themselves exposed to trying to sell into a vastly more competitive European market, meanwhile Germany legacy auto is about to face a flood of imports and falling sales.

It could' have been different but we are now following the long playbook of an industry that didn't take competition seriously enough and even now German auto is not getting what is about to happen to them.

Regards,

... have pulled back to focus on the growing Chinese and Indian market and not leave themselves exposed to trying to sell into a vastly more competitive European market

The Chinese EV market is bigger and more competitive than the European EV market...

Tesla burns through the talent on Musk’s exhilarating ride
Top-tier churn makes it harder for electric carmaker to build institutional knowledge as it grows

There are clear disadvantages in all of this. One is that Tesla churns through talent at a rapid rate ...Another problem is that it makes it harder for Tesla to build institutional knowledge as it grows ... There is another dimension to the Tesla brain-drain that raises more troubling questions. What about the professionals charged with things such as accounting and legal compliance? If they quit shortly after arriving, it inevitably leaves investors wondering how sound the company is.

This week’s departure of the company’s top lawyer after such a short period echoes September’s decision by chief accounting officer Dave Morton to quit after only a month in the job.

- https://www.ft.com/content/6d84f0b8-355 ... 2a211d90d5

- or google title

China’s Kandi says it has received approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to import two of its electric cars to the U.S.

Kandi intends on importing its Model EX3 and Model K22 to the U.S. The company made its ambitions clear last year when it showed off new U.S. versions of the EVs in Texas.

...

The K22 is a two-seater with an advertised range of 83 miles (134 km) and a top speed of 65 mph. Hu told Bloomberg in January that it will be priced at less than $20,000 in the U.S.

He didn’t have any pricing information at the time about the EX3, which boasts a range of 188 miles (303 km) and seats five.

- https://electrek.co/2019/02/20/kandi-sell-ex3-k22-us/

I don't have time to read in depth but a quick scan of Bill Maurer's latest permabear stuff on SA re TSLA and EVs seems interesting enough to give the links, and for me to come back to idc:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424264 ... app=1&dr=1
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424226 ... ious-items

One for the list...

Autoline After Hours - The ABCs of Designing EVs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dttwAlmA_qo

Consumer Reports in the USA no longer recommends the Tesla Model 3

This is a major consumer survey in the US. Owners report problems with paint, trim, and electronics. Having reported problems with the Model S and X the survey went on to say:

"And now our latest survey data has surfaced numerous problems reported by Model 3 owners as well, which is why CR has removed its recommendation for the vehicle."

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... ty-issues/

It does also report that Tesla fans still like their cars. But this sort of evidence gathered over a large survey is rather corrosive for Tesla's reputation.

As a driver of a virtually silent and smooth new BMW ICE who could afford a Tesla, I wouldn't be persuaded to change to an unreliable brand at this stage. This reinforces my view that Model 3 sales in Europe over the next few months may turn out to be disappointing after the initial purchases by the Tesla zealots.

regards

Howard

When the Model 3 first came out in 2017, Consumer Reports gave it an average predicted reliability score based on the survey results at the time about the Model S because the two shared much of the same technology. The car maintained its average score for predicted reliability in October 2018 based on the experiences of Model 3 owners who completed our spring survey. The new survey data shows that the car has dropped from average to below-average reliability.

Tesla’s other models have suffered from below-average reliability as well, Fisher said. The Model S sedan has had an inconsistent history, being above average, average, and below average, with each downward move following in the wake of a hardware change made by Tesla. CR members report that they have the most trouble with loose trim, frozen or blank screen display, and suspension in 2017 models.

So Tesla reliability appears to reliably decline as they scale up production?

Tesla now delivering Model 3 in China, a week early:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/tesla-b ... edule.html

Regards,

Forbes guy on how is Model S costs him about $5,000.

With out the various early bird stuff he got, the cost would be circa $21K, about the cost of a small car.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregautry/ ... 2815f762f4

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Tesla now delivering Model 3 in China, a week early:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/22/tesla-b ... edule.html

Regards,

I wonder what their warranty repair structure is like in china.

Interesting to see how simple is the model X by looking at what is being done in this attempt to get a model X flood buy checked & repaired. The channel owner has his own idiosynchrous presentation style which doesn't bother me, but moght upset some. Compared to what would be involved in a gas powered 4 wheel drive car this is remarkably simple & easy, no exhaust, no transmission to the rear wheels, no big fuel tank, the various hydraulics & air suspension seem neatly done, but there is the downside of the rear motor "bridge" which comes in when he considers possible wheel chair use. Very few folk who buy a motor of this cost would care about the maintenance/repair aspects, but in terms of manufacturing cost & service it looks simpler than most of the gas cars I have worked upon:

https://youtu.be/Q0fxMvfr2N8

Regards,

A compilation of 20 articles on electric cars, click on each article to view:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/pe ... ca-top-20/

These guys believe we have seen peak gasoline car sales.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:A compilation of 20 articles on electric cars, click on each article to view:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/23/pe ... ca-top-20/

These guys believe we have seen peak gasoline car sales.

Regards,

Bearing in mind we are seeing a dip in car sales, predicted further dips as ownership models change, and electric is expanding albeit from a very low baseline with the results of hundreds of billions of investment in electric car production coming on stream over the next 2-3 years I'd be surprised to read a prediction that we hadn't reached peak ICE.

Ody

Yes, having owned a plug-in hybrid I believe peak gasoline may be close. I'd happily change to an electric car if it was the same price, or slightly more expensive than an ICE car and had a range of 300 miles driven at 70 mph.

I'd guess most company fleets will change when a range of 500 miles is feasible.

And there must be a big market for second cars with a lower range than above when prices start at around £15k new.

Given the above the change could be very rapid.

Obviously the charging infrastructure is a big issue if, say, 10 million owners change to electric in the UK. The problem will be that the Government will surely tax electricity more to pay for this?

However, I don't think Tesla will be the manufacturer to achieve mass sales, unless they change their leader! More likely to be a Chinese, Japanese or European company.

regards

Howard

Geographical emissions restrictions are likely to make electric second cars more desirable as well. One car for the town and one for the country...